Tim Hudson...... trouble ahead?

[BigWorm]

Here is an article on the espn website insider section titled "The trouble with Tim Hudson". It details his start last night and talks about some alarming aspects of the "quality start".

Side note: I'm copying and pasting this article because if I were to post a link, some might not be able to view it due to the insider access issue. If espn didn't want it copied they would have locked the article as they do occasionally.



The Trouble with Tim Hudson
By Marc Normandin, Baseball Prospectus

Atlanta Braves righthanderTim Hudson faced the San Diego Padres in Petco Park yesterday afternoon, hoping to follow-up on his strong start against the Giants to begin the year. On a basic level, it looks like Hudson was solid, allowing two runs in 5 2/3 innings to pick up his first win of the season. This is a promising sign for a pitcher who missed most of last season recovering from Tommy John surgery. But if you take a closer look at his performance, you'll see some major red flags.

Hudson, who had great command of his pitches early, started to miss his spots consistently in the third inning. Jerry Hairston worked the count to 3-2 before reaching on an infield single, and then Hudson handed out free passes to both Adrian Gonzalez and Kyle Blanks before escaping the jam. Hudson had similar command problems in the next inning when he again issued two free passes.

He seemed to have regained his control in the fifth, as he retired the side with three straight groundball outs, but in the sixth he started to leave his sinker up, and Will Venablehomered to right. Matt Stairs followed with a double to center, and then Everth Cabrera singled him home. Hudson was removed from the game and the Braves pen ended the threat, keeping Hudson's ERA for the season down at an impressive -- or at least impressive-looking -- 2.84. For the game Hudson had zero strikeouts and five walks, which is the kind of ratio that would typically earn you an early shower, as opposed to a win.

Hudson has recorded just two strikeouts in 12 and 2/3 innings thus far. And while he's never been much of a strikeout pitcher, he whiffed 5.5 per nine in his previous five seasons with Atlanta. He currently stands at 1.4, failing to register a whiff against a Padres team that is currently fourth in the majors in punch outs, and on a day when David Eckstein, the lone Friar that is difficult to fan, was on the bench.

In his defense, Hudson has induced 29 ground balls this year, and sinkerballers can succeed without a ton of strikeouts. Atlanta's infield defense is good, but with Troy Glaus and Chipper Jones on the corners, it isn't great. Therefore, Hudson is going to need to pick things up and earn some outs on his own, rather than relying on the players behind him. If his sinker isn't sinking, or he's not hitting his spots (Hudson threw just 55 strikes on 100 pitches yesterday) he's going to allow a lot of baserunners, and won't always be as lucky with well-timed outs as he was in yesterday's contest. As the season progresses, keep an eye on Hudson's K-rate -- if it remains low, so will the Braves' title chances.

[jlcct]

The sample size of the stats they use is minuscule.

I guess they have to write something since they are getting paid to.

[HaRdCoReBrAvEsFaN]

They also fail to mention numerous calls that could have easily been called strikes and cut out 2 or 3 of the walks he allowed...Hudson's going to be fine...

[Hobbes]

Yep, the ump's zone was extremely tight. Many pitches that usually get called strikes were called balls (for both sides).

[Freddy_Ballgame]

This article not withstanding, I'm a bit disturbed with Huddy's inability to go deeper into games. I also realize that it's likely he may be throwing harder than before the TJ job and he will have to master command of this. His nasty stuff may be a bit straighter, too. I hope all he needs is to keep going out there every five days to right himself. Cox doesn't look for more than 6 or 7 innings from his starters anyway...

[Andy G.]

He's only made two starts. There's nothing to worry about with Hudson.

[KB 34]

These might be legitimate concerns, but two starts doesn't provide significant information. If Hudson says his arm feels fine the Braves will have to let him figure things out for now that will maximize his perforamce. It looks to me someone was looking for an article about a pitcher coming back from major surgery and struggling honestly.

[Andy G.]

KB is right. These guys just want to write about something. The annoying thing is that they can write articles without pretending that two starts for a pitcher, or seven games for a position player, is enough to take anything from the statistics. It's like they don't have brains sometimes.

Here's an article by Rob Neyer on ESPN about Heyward. The headline?

Will Heyward Ever Learn?

You can tell that Neyer knows how silly it is to talk about this after only seven games. It's obvious that he doesn't think it will be a longterm problem, but he had to write something. Heyward's getting a lot of buzz, so you know people will read the article. He even throws in an added touch by asking the question "Will Heyward Ever Learn"...but that's what's annoying. He wrote this article after SEVEN GAMES! Totally useless.

[KB 34]

Heyward's 20 years old and will have to make adjustments? Why didn't I think of that. Shame on him for not being a polished product at 20 years old. Wait though, he's on the pace to hit about 50 HR so clearly that will happen this season. I wish people wrote decriptive titles instead of flashy stupid things that waste your time. As far as ESPN insider goes I think most of us could do just as well with an ouija board and some random equations from an Excel spreadsheet.

[Gman]

Originally Posted by Hobbes

Yep, the ump's zone was extremely tight. Many pitches that usually get called strikes were called balls (for both sides).

One of the most under-looked aspects of why pitcher performance changes from game to game is the ridiculous disparity in umpires' strike zones. Ever since MLB started pushing umpires to call the high end of the strike zone (by oddly enough, lowering it) it has become more and more common for umpires to have widely differing strike zones. The more I watch the more I'm amazed at how different they are. It used to be some just had a wider zone but now it's some are lower and wider, some are higher and narrower, some are high and wide, some are low and narrow, etc. I don't know how the players are handling this mess. I bet some enterprising sports journalist will soon do a study and expose how truly bad it has become.

[Wahoo]

Originally Posted by Andy G.

KB is right. These guys just want to write about something. The annoying thing is that they can write articles without pretending that two starts for a pitcher, or seven games for a position player, is enough to take anything from the statistics. It's like they don't have brains sometimes.

Here's an article by Rob Neyer on ESPN about Heyward. The headline?

Will Heyward Ever Learn?

You can tell that Neyer knows how silly it is to talk about this after only seven games. It's obvious that he doesn't think it will be a longterm problem, but he had to write something. Heyward's getting a lot of buzz, so you know people will read the article. He even throws in an added touch by asking the question "Will Heyward Ever Learn"...but that's what's annoying. He wrote this article after SEVEN GAMES! Totally useless.

I saw that too, Gilley, and I too, thought it was a little misguided. I have noticed he's been fanning a lot, which would be a cause for concern if he weren't taking any of those pitches, but he's been walking a ton. This isn't like Jordan Schaefer who was whiffing and not doing much else. Heyward has been striking out, but he's been reaching base a TON, and he's already earned quite a few free passes, which would indicate to me that he's not necessarily expanding his zone, but may be getting fooled. Ultimately though, it's a small sample size, and what a premature article that was. It would have made a ton more sense if this was written a year ago about Francoeur.