Matt Diaz - One Crazy Enigma

[Gman]

Are any players stats more perplexing than Matt Diaz? When he's really hot he looks like Ted Williams and when he's cold he looks like Mario Mendoza. The extremes both seem to last a month in duration.

Last year his two big OPS months were May and August (.953 and 1.148 respectively) and the two lows were April and Sept (.657 and .637). In his prior full season of '07 his two highs were May and August (1.023 and 1.213) and his two lows were April and June (.709 and .693). In between those extremes he was always around the .800 mark. If he ever figures out how to cut a week or two off those horrid tail-spins or at least minimize the carnage he'd put up some amazing numbers.

Another weird enigma when you look at Diaz is seeing what he did against the pitchers he faced most last year (NL East). Against the NL East he put up a rediculous 1.053 OPS in 214 plate appearances! 214 PAs was just over half his total plate appearances last year. How do you assess that? Is it sample size? Is it that Diaz gets crazy good the more he sees pitchers? Did he just happen to be in one of his amazing hot streaks when the Braves were playing NL East or did the familiarity with NL East pitchers fuel his hot streak? He didn't just hit 2 or 3 nl east teams well, he crushed all of them. He did nearly similar things against the NL East in 07 (save for the Mets). Will the real Matt Diaz please step forward (well....as long as it's the Ted Williams version).

You have to admit Diaz is a lot of fun to have around and root for but he sure is perplexing isn't he?

[The Rap]

I think he's ok but limit him as much as possible to lefty pitching. Either that or get someone who can hit against both sides.

[Agent-X-]

Originally Posted by Gman

Are any players stats more perplexing than Matt Diaz? When he's really hot he looks like Ted Williams and when he's cold he looks like Mario Mendoza. The extremes both seem to last a month in duration.

Last year his two big OPS months were May and August (.953 and 1.148 respectively) and the two lows were April and Sept (.657 and .637). In his prior full season of '07 his two highs were May and August (1.023 and 1.213) and his two lows were April and June (.709 and .693). In between those extremes he was always around the .800 mark. If he ever figures out how to cut a week or two off those horrid tail-spins or at least minimize the carnage he'd put up some amazing numbers.

Another weird enigma when you look at Diaz is seeing what he did against the pitchers he faced most last year (NL East). Against the NL East he put up a rediculous 1.053 OPS in 214 plate appearances! 214 PAs was just over half his total plate appearances last year. How do you assess that? Is it sample size? Is it that Diaz gets crazy good the more he sees pitchers? Did he just happen to be in one of his amazing hot streaks when the Braves were playing NL East or did the familiarity with NL East pitchers fuel his hot streak? He didn't just hit 2 or 3 nl east teams well, he crushed all of them. He did nearly similar things against the NL East in 07 (save for the Mets). Will the real Matt Diaz please step forward (well....as long as it's the Ted Williams version).

You have to admit Diaz is a lot of fun to have around and root for but he sure is perplexing isn't he?

GMan, excellent work on Diaz. Do you know if, when Diaz is hot, what his averages are vs RHPs?

[Gman]

Originally Posted by The Rap

I think he's ok but limit him as much as possible to lefty pitching. Either that or get someone who can hit against both sides.

Ah...another enigma I forgot to mention. Diaz biggest OPS month last year came in August when he had the most plate appearances (107 which is really close to everyday duty). Similar situation in 07. Biggest PA month was his biggest OPS month. So, the lefty/righty thing doesn't seem to matter to him when he's hot, and we've certainly seen that's the case. Also, his career splits are good enough vs. righties to say it probably doesn't even matter much when he's just tepid. Maybe it matters most when he's slumping, but when he's slumping it looks like you could throw a no-armed pitcher at him and get him out.

[Gman]

Originally Posted by Agent-X-

GMan, excellent work on Diaz. Do you know if, when Diaz is hot, what his averages are vs RHPs?

Not sure where to find that level of detail. My educated guess after looking at his monthly swings and career splits are that it isn't his averages against RHP during his hot streaks that would be the most telling. It'd be his averages against RHP during his cold streaks that would be the real glaring ones. I bet they're so bad they'd make Rafael Belliard cringe!