The Argument for a 5 year Mac Extension
Posted 03-26-2012 at 02:36 AM by bravos4evr
It's been a fairly popular opinion on this board (and a few others) that giving McCann an extension in the 5 year $75-$90 mill range would not be in the best interest of the Braves. I disagree and this blog entry is my argument why I feel he will remain worth it EVEN if they added a 6th year extension, EVEN if he stayed at catcher.
One of the popular arguments is that he will start to break down towards the end of a 5 year deal as he will be turning 35 at the completion of said deal. That catchers break down earlier than other players. However, that's not completely true when you consider his ability to hit.
Let's compare him to similar hitting catchers at similar ages:
Mac age 28- 6 full seasons and has avg. a 4.6 WAR during those seasons.:
Pudge Fisk-age 28- 4 full seasons avg a 4.5 WAR per: over the next 6 seasons avg a 4.3 WAR (including one injury year with only a 0.6 WAR)
Pudge Rodriguez- age 28-8 full seasons avg a 4.8 WAR over the next 6 seasons avg a 4.4 WAR
Piazza- age 28-5 full seasons avg a 6.7 WAR over the next 6 seasons avg a 4.8 WAR (and that includes one injury riddled 68 game season)
Now, if Mac maintains his production in a similar manner as these players, we can expect a 4.0-4.5 type of production out of him on avg over the course of a 5 year extension.(I went an extra two years and they only avg a .7 WAR loss as well) In fangraphs value ,Mac has been worth an avg of $18.33 mill per season. I don't think it will take quite that much to sign him and even if it does, I think he will give us adequate production (barring injury) to be worth it. (not to mention his value in other revenue to the team)
Now, there also lies his defense, which is actually much better than advertised due to his ability to block pitches (which fangraphs says rates him 2nd in overall catching defense to Yadier Molina, though I think he's more likely a top 10 defender overall) Catcher's seem to maintain pretty well until age 36 behind the plate (and some have gone past 40).
Okay, so you say "but Bravos, that's too much to pay for a guy who sits once a week!!!" I agree, in a way. But it's not like the Braves are the only team who sits their catcher once a week. He is usually available to pinch hit so does still carry value on the bench. Not to mention the following interesting tidbit of statistical data:
These are the WAR leaders at catcher from 2006-2011 with at least 2500 PA's:
Mauer-30.6
Mac-26.2
Russell Martin-20.7
Victor Martinez-20.1
Yadier Molina-16.9
Posada- 13.9
K. Suzuki- 12.6
Pudge- 9.5
AJ Pierzynski- 9.1
M. Olivo- 8.3
Jason Kendall- 7.5
If you notice, only 5 catchers over the past 6 seasons have been worth even 2.5 WAR per year!!!! After that it gets ugly so fast that by number 10 you are looking at a 1.325 WAR per year!!! That's lousy and it brings up my final point.
REPLACING MAC WILL EITHER COST SIMILAR $$$$ OR COST US WINS!!
Even if he DOES regress the last 2 years to a 2.5 WAR per season guy he will still probably be a top 5 catcher in the game! Replacing him will be very very hard. Unless someone proposes going after a guy with a 7 WAR bat for the OF and putting Bethancourt at catcher!!! I like the kid, but he's nowhere near the hitter of Mac. His ceiling is pretty much Yadier Molina. But will he ever reach that ceiling? Are we willing to risk losing one of the faces of the team on a hunch?
I, for one, am not.
So, yep, I'm for giving him a 5 year extension, heck I wouldn't be opposed to throwing in a 6 year option for like a $10 mill base with incentives to push it to $16 mill. I think he will be worth it, and the alternatives are so lousy as to make the offensive hit, awfully hard to bear.
One of the popular arguments is that he will start to break down towards the end of a 5 year deal as he will be turning 35 at the completion of said deal. That catchers break down earlier than other players. However, that's not completely true when you consider his ability to hit.
Let's compare him to similar hitting catchers at similar ages:
Mac age 28- 6 full seasons and has avg. a 4.6 WAR during those seasons.:
Pudge Fisk-age 28- 4 full seasons avg a 4.5 WAR per: over the next 6 seasons avg a 4.3 WAR (including one injury year with only a 0.6 WAR)
Pudge Rodriguez- age 28-8 full seasons avg a 4.8 WAR over the next 6 seasons avg a 4.4 WAR
Piazza- age 28-5 full seasons avg a 6.7 WAR over the next 6 seasons avg a 4.8 WAR (and that includes one injury riddled 68 game season)
Now, if Mac maintains his production in a similar manner as these players, we can expect a 4.0-4.5 type of production out of him on avg over the course of a 5 year extension.(I went an extra two years and they only avg a .7 WAR loss as well) In fangraphs value ,Mac has been worth an avg of $18.33 mill per season. I don't think it will take quite that much to sign him and even if it does, I think he will give us adequate production (barring injury) to be worth it. (not to mention his value in other revenue to the team)
Now, there also lies his defense, which is actually much better than advertised due to his ability to block pitches (which fangraphs says rates him 2nd in overall catching defense to Yadier Molina, though I think he's more likely a top 10 defender overall) Catcher's seem to maintain pretty well until age 36 behind the plate (and some have gone past 40).
Okay, so you say "but Bravos, that's too much to pay for a guy who sits once a week!!!" I agree, in a way. But it's not like the Braves are the only team who sits their catcher once a week. He is usually available to pinch hit so does still carry value on the bench. Not to mention the following interesting tidbit of statistical data:
These are the WAR leaders at catcher from 2006-2011 with at least 2500 PA's:
Mauer-30.6
Mac-26.2
Russell Martin-20.7
Victor Martinez-20.1
Yadier Molina-16.9
Posada- 13.9
K. Suzuki- 12.6
Pudge- 9.5
AJ Pierzynski- 9.1
M. Olivo- 8.3
Jason Kendall- 7.5
If you notice, only 5 catchers over the past 6 seasons have been worth even 2.5 WAR per year!!!! After that it gets ugly so fast that by number 10 you are looking at a 1.325 WAR per year!!! That's lousy and it brings up my final point.
REPLACING MAC WILL EITHER COST SIMILAR $$$$ OR COST US WINS!!
Even if he DOES regress the last 2 years to a 2.5 WAR per season guy he will still probably be a top 5 catcher in the game! Replacing him will be very very hard. Unless someone proposes going after a guy with a 7 WAR bat for the OF and putting Bethancourt at catcher!!! I like the kid, but he's nowhere near the hitter of Mac. His ceiling is pretty much Yadier Molina. But will he ever reach that ceiling? Are we willing to risk losing one of the faces of the team on a hunch?
I, for one, am not.
So, yep, I'm for giving him a 5 year extension, heck I wouldn't be opposed to throwing in a 6 year option for like a $10 mill base with incentives to push it to $16 mill. I think he will be worth it, and the alternatives are so lousy as to make the offensive hit, awfully hard to bear.
Total Comments 4
Comments
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Well...there's all that.
Then there's my opinion of it.
Liberty Media is going to sell this team within the next 3 years.
We have a ton of young talent coming up through the system, primarily on the pitching staff...but a ton of it all the same. Young talent is cheap.
Also, one could argue that all of the following are coming off the payroll within the next 3 years; Chipper Jones, Tim Hudson, Martin Prado, Michael Bourn.
Sure. A lot of that money will be replaced by paying arbitration to some of the current kids...but not all of it.
My feeling...is that by the time it becomes an "issue" that we're paying McCann a ridiculous amount, we're going to have a new owner.
I'm willing to hedge my bets and say that the next owner is not going to be an entity that caps the team's spending to ensure some type of profit.
Sign him and either allow time to fix the problem...or sign him and then deal with the problem later, I say. It'll work itself out either way.Posted 03-26-2012 at 02:04 PM by BFH 
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i thought you were on the side of no 5 year deal BFH. Hmm, I guess i was mistaken.
Posted 03-26-2012 at 06:12 PM by bravos4evr
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I'm on the side of "Let's wait until next year and see how McCann does in 2012 before making a decision".
Ultimately, I'm of the opinion that in 3 years money won't be an issue. You've proven in WAR and statistics that McCann is vital to the offense and the team's success.
However...I'd also argue that McCann won't make a damn of difference if we don't address the rest of the team if it does not improve.
It's a matter of re-evaluating where we are in November.
If Jason Heyward has come around and re-realized the potential he flashed in his rookie year. If Freddie Freeman continues to show growth. If the young pitchers come up and show they can handle the transition to the majors. If Terdoslavich shows he can handle 3B defensively in the minors.
If, if, if. It's a lot of if's and questions that need to be answered before I completely commit to giving McCann such a deal.
I know it's going to seem I'm waffling back and forth on the topic...but it's hard to explain.
I'd be in the business of keeping the Braves competitive currently, in the immediate future (2-3 years) and in the long term (4+ years from now).
As I said before...I don't think money will be an issue by the end of McCann's deal. So assuming Heyward and others rebound and McCann stays healthy, I commit and give him the deal with faith that a new owner will open up and allow the Braves to spend upwards of $100M each year.
If 2012 tanks...Heyward face plants again, Freeman regresses and Prado doesn't step up, we're having a different discussion. The discussion might even turn topsy turvy if Terdoslavich proves he can't play 3B. It's just a wide, wide spectrum to cover at this very moment.
So yeah...I guess the proper way to label my opinion is "Wait and see". It's the only thing we can really do in our current position. Wait until November and see where we are and if the money might be needed in 2014 to do other things....or if we'll be able to confidently pencil in the young/cheap guys in the interim while we wait for a new ownership situation.
Frankly...and sadly...what it comes down to is...the sooner Liberty Media sells the team, the sooner the Braves will learn about how much money they can spend in the long term.Posted 03-26-2012 at 06:27 PM by BFH
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If the worst happens, i reckon the prudent plan would be to let Hudson leave,Bourn leave,trade Jurrjens, extend Prado for 3b and extend Mac for C. Freeman and Heyward won't be traded unless they are so horrible the team has no choice (though I find it more likely they get sent down as both have too much promise).
That would free up enough$$$ to go after Upton and Swisher and I think the team is fine for 5 years to come. That's if Heyward and Freeman get another season to improve in 2013.Posted 03-26-2012 at 07:24 PM by bravos4evr
