The 2017 Braves..... an interesting gaze into the future 5 years down the road.
Posted 01-17-2013 at 07:03 AM by bravos4evr
There's been some discussion over on the Capital Avenue Club blog about the long term future of the team depending on IF they trade for Upton or Not. I am of the opinion it won't make much difference as the $$$ will work out about the same.
(for the purposes of this I am assuming no extensions for any players nearing free agency)
But let's take a look!
These are the players who should still be under control as the team enters the 2017 season:Mike Minor,Andrelton, Francisco,Simmons,Pastornicky, BJ Upton
total:$17.050 for Upton and (assuming the Rev is just a utility guy, which I suspect he will be) prolly just a $1.5m for him or so, 4th yr of arb for Roadrunner at $5m Simmons around $8m and Minor between $8m and $10m
that's $41million bucks, just allowing for inflation and only a 50% investment of the new TV cash, I will make a conservative estimate that payroll will be approx $112m. (leaving $71 m)
Now, we have to consider a few things, namely, that Teheran, Gilmartin, Wood,Sims...etc all will have gotten their shot by then and all will be under control if they happen to all stick. But the odds say they won't all stick. I am going to try and use my crystal ball and guess that of the 5 or 6 good arms we have in the minors, only 2 or 3 of them will end up as worth being in a 5 man rotation for more than a year or two.
so let's (for the sake of discussion) pick Teheran,Gilmartin and Sims. (each making their start in 2013,2014 and 2015 respectively)
so there is 3 parts of our rotation to go with the grizzled veteran Minor giving us 4. a 5th man can be picked up off of free agency for not much money and Sims would be pre arb, the other two first and second year arb eligible respectively. let's be liberal and say $10m between them, $4m for the 5th starter we add and .6m for Sims.
Leaves us $57m and we still need to fill the positional spots , bench and the pen.(for the sake of argument I will assume the pen costs $8m, the bench $5m) that leaves $43m.
Let's recap the positions as we figure out who we will have playing for us in 2017:
1B-?
2B?
3B-Francisco
SS-Simmons
LF-?
CF-Upton
RF-?
C-?
that's 5 spots and $43m, just sign 5 guys for $8m a yr right? lol nope, I don't think that's what is likely to happen with present ownership/mgmt.
I look at our Minor Leagues and I see a few gems that I suspect will be on this 2017 team.
2B-Tommy Lastella all reports say he's got pure hitting skills and is one to be watched, by 2017, I think he's here, taking over for Uggla.
cost: league min
1B- I suspect that the team will be forced to either draft a 1B in an early rd very soon, or trade Freeman/Heyward/whoever pre-free agency to fill this spot, as there's nobody coming from the farm to save us. I will guess they spend some money here and try and grab an $16m dollar superstar(Goldschmidt maybe or Rizzo)
C- I suspect that the team will allow Mac to leave after next year (barring a major home town deal) and will have acquired a decent league avg type of catcher by then in the $6m dollar range
LF/C(maybe catcher)-Gattis: I believe in his bat, and I suspect that his prime value will end up catching as I DON'T believe in Bethancourt's bat (if pressed I would say he's the backup catcher for several years due to his glove though) I think Gattis might win a bench job this year after either ST or a few months at AAA, meaning he would be pre arb and cheap $1m or maybe a super two and 1st yr arb at $2-$3m
RF- HEYWARD- yeah yeah, I said assume no extensions, but I honestly think they will break the bank and sign him to a big money deal that is paying him $18m per yr ,maybe they wait til 2015 to do it, but IF he's hitting, they kinda have to keep him. after letting Mac go and Chipper retiring, they NEED the franchise icon.
So here's your 2017 Braves!
Rotation:
Teheran
Minor
Gilmartin
free agent backend arm
Sims
Lineup:
LaStella
Simmons
Heyward
Gattis
Goldy/Rizzo/1B free agent
Upton
Francisco
Catcher free agent
Bullpen: $8m
Bench: $5m
$112m
seems pricey and looks mediocre doesn't it? Well remember, I went way overboard with my estimates on mot everything. But we are also assuming these players develop into better hitters than they are presently.
I see Lastella as being a Dustin Pedroia type of breakout 2B. I really do.
Simmons has a ton of value now, wait until he's 27-28 and in his prime
Francisco will ,at least, crush right handed pitching and give 3WAR value at 3B
I see Gattis as being a 4WAR player in LF because I think he will crush the ball, and field about as bad as you think he will....sigh
Neither Upton nor Heyward will be so old by then that they are in decline, and Heyward will still be in his prime.
The pitching will be fine as most of our farm strength lies in pitching, heck the Braves have 10 starting pitchers with a B rating in the minor league report.... that's a good bit. if half pan out to be starters or relievers, (not to mention anyone drafted since then come 2017) the staff will be just peachy!
No, IMO, 5 years from now, the tale of the Braves will be 1B and Catcher. If they focus on making Gattis a catcher they could avoid a bit of it, but by then he'd be 31....so it's prolly not a wise choice. IF they can fill one of those 2 spots with a serious impact player and the other with a league avg player, I think the Braves will continue to be a 90+ type of winning team.ALL IS NOT LOST!!!
(That being said, they really need to be drafting 3B,1B and OF in their early rds for the next few years.)
(for the purposes of this I am assuming no extensions for any players nearing free agency)
But let's take a look!
These are the players who should still be under control as the team enters the 2017 season:Mike Minor,Andrelton, Francisco,Simmons,Pastornicky, BJ Upton
total:$17.050 for Upton and (assuming the Rev is just a utility guy, which I suspect he will be) prolly just a $1.5m for him or so, 4th yr of arb for Roadrunner at $5m Simmons around $8m and Minor between $8m and $10m
that's $41million bucks, just allowing for inflation and only a 50% investment of the new TV cash, I will make a conservative estimate that payroll will be approx $112m. (leaving $71 m)
Now, we have to consider a few things, namely, that Teheran, Gilmartin, Wood,Sims...etc all will have gotten their shot by then and all will be under control if they happen to all stick. But the odds say they won't all stick. I am going to try and use my crystal ball and guess that of the 5 or 6 good arms we have in the minors, only 2 or 3 of them will end up as worth being in a 5 man rotation for more than a year or two.
so let's (for the sake of discussion) pick Teheran,Gilmartin and Sims. (each making their start in 2013,2014 and 2015 respectively)
so there is 3 parts of our rotation to go with the grizzled veteran Minor giving us 4. a 5th man can be picked up off of free agency for not much money and Sims would be pre arb, the other two first and second year arb eligible respectively. let's be liberal and say $10m between them, $4m for the 5th starter we add and .6m for Sims.
Leaves us $57m and we still need to fill the positional spots , bench and the pen.(for the sake of argument I will assume the pen costs $8m, the bench $5m) that leaves $43m.
Let's recap the positions as we figure out who we will have playing for us in 2017:
1B-?
2B?
3B-Francisco
SS-Simmons
LF-?
CF-Upton
RF-?
C-?
that's 5 spots and $43m, just sign 5 guys for $8m a yr right? lol nope, I don't think that's what is likely to happen with present ownership/mgmt.
I look at our Minor Leagues and I see a few gems that I suspect will be on this 2017 team.
2B-Tommy Lastella all reports say he's got pure hitting skills and is one to be watched, by 2017, I think he's here, taking over for Uggla.
cost: league min
1B- I suspect that the team will be forced to either draft a 1B in an early rd very soon, or trade Freeman/Heyward/whoever pre-free agency to fill this spot, as there's nobody coming from the farm to save us. I will guess they spend some money here and try and grab an $16m dollar superstar(Goldschmidt maybe or Rizzo)
C- I suspect that the team will allow Mac to leave after next year (barring a major home town deal) and will have acquired a decent league avg type of catcher by then in the $6m dollar range
LF/C(maybe catcher)-Gattis: I believe in his bat, and I suspect that his prime value will end up catching as I DON'T believe in Bethancourt's bat (if pressed I would say he's the backup catcher for several years due to his glove though) I think Gattis might win a bench job this year after either ST or a few months at AAA, meaning he would be pre arb and cheap $1m or maybe a super two and 1st yr arb at $2-$3m
RF- HEYWARD- yeah yeah, I said assume no extensions, but I honestly think they will break the bank and sign him to a big money deal that is paying him $18m per yr ,maybe they wait til 2015 to do it, but IF he's hitting, they kinda have to keep him. after letting Mac go and Chipper retiring, they NEED the franchise icon.
So here's your 2017 Braves!
Rotation:
Teheran
Minor
Gilmartin
free agent backend arm
Sims
Lineup:
LaStella
Simmons
Heyward
Gattis
Goldy/Rizzo/1B free agent
Upton
Francisco
Catcher free agent
Bullpen: $8m
Bench: $5m
$112m
seems pricey and looks mediocre doesn't it? Well remember, I went way overboard with my estimates on mot everything. But we are also assuming these players develop into better hitters than they are presently.
I see Lastella as being a Dustin Pedroia type of breakout 2B. I really do.
Simmons has a ton of value now, wait until he's 27-28 and in his prime
Francisco will ,at least, crush right handed pitching and give 3WAR value at 3B
I see Gattis as being a 4WAR player in LF because I think he will crush the ball, and field about as bad as you think he will....sigh
Neither Upton nor Heyward will be so old by then that they are in decline, and Heyward will still be in his prime.
The pitching will be fine as most of our farm strength lies in pitching, heck the Braves have 10 starting pitchers with a B rating in the minor league report.... that's a good bit. if half pan out to be starters or relievers, (not to mention anyone drafted since then come 2017) the staff will be just peachy!
No, IMO, 5 years from now, the tale of the Braves will be 1B and Catcher. If they focus on making Gattis a catcher they could avoid a bit of it, but by then he'd be 31....so it's prolly not a wise choice. IF they can fill one of those 2 spots with a serious impact player and the other with a league avg player, I think the Braves will continue to be a 90+ type of winning team.ALL IS NOT LOST!!!
(That being said, they really need to be drafting 3B,1B and OF in their early rds for the next few years.)
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