Gamethread: Pirates @ Braves, June 11, 2009 (59/162) LOSS

[sdp]

http://img192.imageshack.us/img192/7545/71239534.png
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Pittsburgh Pirates (27-32) vs. Atlanta Braves (29-29)
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Series Matchups (Braves lead, 2-1)
> Monday: Braves 7, Pirates 6 (W: Medlen; L: Karstens) - Recap (http://atlanta.braves.mlb.com/media/video.jsp?content_id=4947565&c_id=atl) | Box Score (http://atlanta.braves.mlb.com/news/boxscore.jsp?gid=2009_06_08_pitmlb_atlmlb_1) | Gamethread (http://www.chopnation.com/boards/showthread.php?t=14)
> Tuesday: Braves 4, Pirates 3 (W: Lowe; L: Burnett; S: Soriano) - Recap (http://atlanta.braves.mlb.com/media/video.jsp?content_id=4968301&c_id=atl) | Box Score (http://atlanta.braves.mlb.com/news/boxscore.jsp?gid=2009_06_09_pitmlb_atlmlb_1) | Gamethread (http://chopnation.com/boards/showthread.php?t=29)
> Wednesday: Pirates 3, Braves 2 (W: Karstens; L: Jurrjens; S: Capps) - Recap (http://atlanta.braves.mlb.com/media/video.jsp?content_id=4984951&c_id=atl) | Box Score (http://atlanta.braves.mlb.com/news/boxscore.jsp?gid=2009_06_10_pitmlb_atlmlb_1) | Gamethread (http://www.chopnation.com/boards/showthread.php?t=41)
> TODAY: Paul Maholm vs. Javier Vazquez, 1:05 PM EDT on SPSO

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Projected Lineup
Nate McLouth, CF
Yunel Escobar, SS
Chipper Jones, 3B
Brian McCann, C
Garret Anderson, LF
Greg Norton, 1B
Jeff Francoeur, RF
Kelly Johnson, 2B
Javier Vazquez, RHP

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Link Roundup
Pirates-Braves Preview (http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/preview?gid=290611115) (Pieringer, STATS)
Schafer could miss 2 weeks due to hand injury (http://www.ajc.com/braves/content/sports/braves/stories/2009/06/10/braves_schafer_hand_injury.html) (O'Brien, AJC)
Braves add speed in draft (http://www.ajc.com/braves/content/sports/braves/stories/2009/06/10/braves_draft.html) (O'Brien, AJC)
Braves stock speed in Draft's Day 2 (http://atlanta.braves.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20090609&content_id=5226800&vkey=news_atl&fext=.jsp&c_id=atl) (Rosenberg, MLB.com)
Hanson steadily builds towards ace status (http://atlanta.braves.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20090610&content_id=5251686&vkey=news_atl&fext=.jsp&c_id=atl) (Bowman, MLB.com)

"This was a big game for us, and we let it get away." - Jair Jurrjens

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Upcoming @ Baltimore
> Friday, June 12th: Tommy Hanson vs. Jason Berken, 7:05 PM EDT on SPSO
> Saturday, June 13th: Kenshin Kawakami vs. Rich Hill, 7:05 PM EDT on SPSO
> Sunday, June 14th: Derek Lowe vs. Brad Bergensen, 1:35 PM EDT on FSS
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June 16th-18th: Braves @ Reds; June 19th-21st: Braves @ Red Sox
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Go Braves!

[Lauren T.]

Hanson steadily builds towards ace status (http://atlanta.braves.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20090610&content_id=5251686&vkey=news_atl&fext=.jsp&c_id=atl) (Bowman, MLB.com)
Yep, one start and Bowman's calling him an ace.

Is it possible to trade for new beat writers? :(

[Hillbilly]

Barbaro in the line-up (http://blogs.ajc.com/atlanta-braves-blog/2009/06/10/soriano-silencing-skeptics/comment-page-21/#comment-137595) batting cleanup. Norton DLed (ankle) per DOB.


"Calling all AL teams in search of DH help. Tune into SportSouth at 1:00 EST for a showcase."

[Hillbilly]

Love this quote from one of DOB's blog comments:

One player said this was what he was told about Canizares: “I hear he can’t run, can’t throw, and can’t field, but the sumbitch can hit.”

[Middle Man]

Love this quote from one of DOB's blog comments:

One player said this was what he was told about Canizares: “I hear he can’t run, can’t throw, and can’t field, but the sumbitch can hit.”

Ha, that probably sums it up pretty well. I only saw him a few times last year in Richmond, but his fielding was....awkward. I would bet he's polished that up a little since then.

KJ batting 8th. I'm predicting 3 walks for him.

[Middle Man]

Wow, JV on fire early. Three up, 3 Ks.


edit: And Barbaro's debut will have to wait until the 2nd innning as the Braves go down in order.

[CanadaBravesFan]

Hopefully "The Cuban Assassian" will give this lineup a power boost. I hope Norton NEVER plays again. He is done like dinner.

[CharlotteBrave]

First post in a Braves forum... Hello y'all. (Most of my forum time is spent on college football message boards. Go Hokies! :p)

Glad to see Norton not in the line-up, our pitchers are hitting better than he is right now.

Fast first inning, always good seeing a pitcher strike out the side.

[luvdembravos]

First post in a Braves forum... Hello y'all. (Most of my forum time is spent on college football message boards. Go Hokies! :p)

Glad to see Norton not in the line-up, our pitchers are hitting better than he is right now.

Fast first inning, always good seeing a pitcher strike out the side.

Welcome Hokie fan!

[Middle Man]

First post in a Braves forum... Hello y'all. (Most of my forum time is spent on college football message boards. Go Hokies! :p)

Glad to see Norton not in the line-up, our pitchers are hitting better than he is right now.

Fast first inning, always good seeing a pitcher strike out the side.

Welcome, CharlotteBrave. I hope you spend some of that forum time here too. Lots of Virginia-connection folks here - not too many Hokies though. GO DUKES! ;)

[Andy G.]

First post in a Braves forum... Hello y'all. (Most of my forum time is spent on college football message boards. Go Hokies! :p)

Glad to see Norton not in the line-up, our pitchers are hitting better than he is right now.

Fast first inning, always good seeing a pitcher strike out the side.
Welcome to Chopnation. Glad to have you here. You'll love us. :cool:

[CanadaBravesFan]

Welcome CharlotteBrave!!!

[Middle Man]

JV after 2 innings: 27 pitches, 20 strikes, 5 Ks.

[Agent-X-]

Dang. Vazquez is dealing today!! I hope he keeps up this momentum. We sure could use a dominating performance out of him.

[Agent-X-]

And Canizares gets a big league welcome by fanning...

[Middle Man]

Barbaro Ks in his first AB. Called 3rd strike - appeared to be about 6 inches off the plate. Rookie hazing apparently.

[CharlotteBrave]

Thanks y'all... Glad to be here, been a Braves fan my whole life, and I grew up in Peachtree City.

5Ks in 2 innings is quite the start for Javier!

[chicagobrave]

I agree that Vasquez looks great out there today. I hope he can eat up some innings today too. I wish the offense would get it going and start scoring some runs though.

[Agent-X-]

Vazquez cruising along on 38 pitches through 3 IP, 1 H, 0 BB, 6 K

[MSbravefan]

can we bat Kelly 9th.. in Gwinett?

[Agent-X-]

Leave it to the Braves to turn this into a pitcher's duel. Maholme is piling up the K's now too.

[MSbravefan]

This ump is horrible.. giving Maholm about 7 inches off the plate

[Agent-X-]

I guess that explains why it's a pitcher's duel. I guess it's okay as long as both pitchers are getting the same strike zone.

[Middle Man]

Braves 1-0 after a gift run from the Peerites.

This ump has a curious strike zone. I think he must not be standing directly behind the plate.

[MSbravefan]

So is it safe to say Francoeur is playing better than Kelly? That's pretty bad

[Agent-X-]

can we bat Kelly 9th.. in Gwinett?

So is it safe to say Francoeur is playing better than Kelly? That's pretty bad

It certainly doesn't bode well for either player... this might be Kelly's last shot at starting consistently. He's so darn streaky it's not even funny. 50 games into the season and he still hasn't found his bat.

And of course, Frenchy hasn't found his bat in years. I've given up hope.

[Middle Man]

As bad as KJ has been this year, his OPS is still 100 points higher than Francoeur's. Yes, Francoeur has been that bad.

[CanadaBravesFan]

First hit for the new guy!

[Middle Man]

First hit for Barbaro. Slaps a fast ball into leftfield.

[FrankEC]

Way to go Barbaro!!!

Am I the only one who thinks about the horse every time I hear the name Barbaro?

[FrankEC]

Holy Crikeys Jeff Francoeur with 2 hits and a walk in the same game. What kind of Bizarro world have I stepped into?

[chicagobrave]

2 men on base. Come on Ross drive them home.

[luvdembravos]

Way to go Barbaro!!!

Am I the only one who thinks about the horse every time I hear the name Barbaro?

:) I love horse racing...let's hope our Barbaro has a longer career than the horse. :(

[Hobbes]

Way to go Barbaro!!!

Am I the only one who thinks about the horse every time I hear the name Barbaro?
<raises hand>

[Middle Man]

Way to go Barbaro!!!

Am I the only one who thinks about the horse every time I hear the name Barbaro?

Yeah. Hopefully our version is a little more durable.

[Middle Man]

After 6 innings, Maholm with 97 pitches, JV with 86.

[Agent-X-]

Mmm...

The difference between Jeff's .620 OPS and KJ's .697 leaves a lot to be desired. All three players should be fortunate to remain at the ML level after this. I say this fully acknowledging that KJ was highly sought after in the offseason, and I hope this does not destroy his value in a trade...

If anything is killing this team, it's these three hitters in the lineup.

[Andy G.]

Man, are these umpires getting worse? It seems like they've missed a lot of obvious calls this year.

[Middle Man]

Mmm...

The difference between Jeff's .620 OPS and KJ's .697 leaves a lot to be desired. All three players should be fortunate to remain at the ML level after this. I say this fully acknowledging that KJ was highly sought after in the offseason, and I hope this does not destroy his value in a trade...

If anything is killing this team, it's these three hitters in the lineup.

Well, it was 100 points coming into today. Jeff's gaining on him. :D

That was a horrible call at first. They don't usually blow the obvious ones like that. Poor Barbaro. He's really getting the shaft today.

[luvdembravos]

Some pretty good starting pitching being wasted- again.

[Middle Man]

Some pretty good starting pitching being wasted- again.

That's 10 Ks through 7 innings. 102 pitches for JV.

[Middle Man]

KJ with a lead-off doub. JV with a nice sac bunt. Knock him in, guys!

[Andy G.]

I wonder who Kelly was pointin at in the dugout after that double. I also noticed Jack Wilson giving Kelly props for the hit. You can't dislike that guy.

Go ahead run on third for Nate. Did he just throw his bat at the pitcher?

[Middle Man]

Bummer. McLouth looked helpless up there. Esco flies out to CF. On to the 8th. Might of should of considered using a PHer for JV there.

[Middle Man]

Wow! 12 Ks for JV. It'll be a crime if we can't score him a run here.

[BigWorm]

Absolute gem today by Javy. Hope we can score for him....

[chicagobrave]

Wow 2 stolen bases for Diaz today. Come on Jeff get a hit here.

[Agent-X-]

Wow 2 stolen bases for Diaz today. Come on Jeff get a hit here.

:(

[MSbravefan]

I f'n hate this team.. every time they do something good they follow it up with something worse to make up for it. Bobby Cox is a freakin joke as a manager.. lineups are horrible (Barbaro 4th and Diaz always batting 3-5 when he plays) and he uses the same bullpen arms every freakin day. Kelly and Jeff are worthless too

[Middle Man]

3-1 Peerites headed to the bottom of the 9th. Soriano with trouble getting that 3rd strike against LaRoche Jr. Not real thrilled with the pitch calling there. I don't know if that's mostly Ross calling them or the bench or what.

[chicagobrave]

I feel bad for Javy because he pitched so well today. I really hope the offense can win this game for Javy.

[Middle Man]

Bobby's gonna get tossed on that one. There he goes!

[Andy G.]

What an awful day for the umpires. That sucks.

[Middle Man]

Sigh. Some ol' story - as soon as it looks like the Braves might get a little winning streak going, we go and blow a couple of games. I guess the offense was doomed today - No McCann (until the final out) and an 0-4 day from Chipper. Sigh.

[Chris_Moderato]

I am getting really burned out on this team and it's pathetic offense.

[Hobbes]

How did The Horse wind up doing today?

[sdp]

It ain't happening this year, folks.

[bravos4evr]

Man oh man, I can't even get mad at Bobby like usual. We can't hit unless Chipper hits and that sux.

Oh wait, I CAN get mad at Bobby, we have a chance to take 3 out of 4 before a road trip and we don't start our second best hitter cuz a lefty is pitching?

Fire Bobby Cox.

[CharlotteBrave]

Wouldn't mind seeing us get a new hitting coach, because it seems like nearly all of our hitters are either not improving or getting worse.

The bats on this team are pretty frustrating.

[Lauren T.]

It ain't happening this year, folks.
Did anyone really think we had a shot at the post-season, much less winning it all?

[Agent-X-]

I am getting really burned out on this team and it's pathetic offense.

For what it's worth, meaningful change does not come without a little pain. I'm having fun watching this team evolve. If Wren plays his cards right, we can rebuild this organization the right way. We may not make a real push this year, and I think that's acceptable considering three of the bats in our lineup aren't even bench-worthy the way they're playing so far.

You win some. You lose some.

The trade deadline is approaching. :)

[Middle Man]

How did The Horse wind up doing today?

Barbaro went 1-4 with 2 Ks. The first K was on a pretty bad (by the ump)called 3rd strike. He looked fine at 1B. He made a nice tag play on a guy after being drawn off the bag by an Esco throw, but the 1st base ump blew the call.

[sdp]

Did anyone really think we had a shot at the post-season, much less winning it all?
Yes. I don't think anyone gave much thought to the offense, though, and it has been the biggest problem.

[FrankEC]

Man, go away to a meeting feeling really good about our chances in this game and then come back to this.

I swear there are times when supporting this time is like taking a shot to the groin.

You have to think at some point, someone is going to have to be the patsy and take the fall for this miserable offense. I've always supported Pendleton in the past, but I think he needs to be the one to go whether it's his fault or not. If nothing else, to give the fans some hope that this team is moving in the right direction. Because let's face it, right now it's not.

[Andy G.]

Man oh man, I can't even get mad at Bobby like usual. We can't hit unless Chipper hits and that sux.

Oh wait, I CAN get mad at Bobby, we have a chance to take 3 out of 4 before a road trip and we don't start our second best hitter cuz a lefty is pitching?

Fire Bobby Cox.
That's not why he didn't start. He didn't start because it was a day game after a night game, and he's a catcher. Like you said, he's our second best hitter. That makes it even more important to keep him fresh for the entire season. Our offense sucks, there's nothing a manager can do about that.

We need to make a trade. Our rotation is too good to let this season slip away, because any contribution from left and right field would be a huge boost for this team. MAKE IT HAPPEN WREN!!

[Agent-X-]

That's not why he didn't start. He didn't start because it was a day game after a night game, and he's a catcher. Like you said, he's our second best hitter. That makes it even more important to keep him fresh for the entire season. Our offense sucks, there's nothing a manager can do about that.

We need to make a trade. Our rotation is too good to let this season slip away, because any contribution from left and right field would be a huge boost for this team. MAKE IT HAPPEN WREN!!

You don't walk into a trade discussion needing to make it happen though. I would only trade if it made long term sense. Like McLouth. All we need are some average hitters to take the place of the AA guys we have in LF and RF. I'd also consider trading high on Kelly Johnson if he EVER hits another good streak again.

[CanadaBravesFan]

You don't walk into a trade discussion needing to make it happen though. I would only trade if it made long term sense. Like McLouth. All we need are some average hitters to take the place of the AA guys we have in LF and RF. I'd also consider trading high on Kelly Johnson if he EVER hits another good streak again.

I agree. As soon as KJ starts to roll, trade him. Imagine if we could have gotten Orlando Hudson like I was rooting for. My take on things is this:

Players I would move (out, trade, release, Mexican team)
Norton
KJ
Frenchy
Bennett
Carlyle
Campillo
Reyes
Anderson

Then, we have to establish a batting order. KJ should NEVER bat lower than Norton. The pitcher should not bat lower than Norton. We need someone from 5-8 that can bat at least .280 with a little bit of pop. I am still optimistic about 2009 and really am enjoying the season. As Andy said earlier, this rotation is way to good to just not give it a shot this year.

[CharlotteBrave]

Our pitching really is fantastic. This is the first time in years I've been so confident in not only our starters but our bullpen as well. Huge fan of Gonzo, Soriano, Medlen, O'Flaherty, and Acosta. When Campillo is healthy, he's a very solid long relief guy as well. I used to like Moylan, and I'm sure he'll hit stride once again, but he and Bennett are definitely killing me this year.

If the Braves are able to get some consistency out of either corner of the OF, 1B (which will happen when Kotch comes back), and 2B we'll start winning those 2 out of 3 like Bobby always preaches, and I could see us landing in the playoffs.

That said; I don't see KJ coming out of his slump any time soon, and I don't think Frenchie or GA will ever give us much more than what they are now. The Braves only hope of postseason this year is by getting some production out of LF, RF, 1B, and/or 2B. (I'd argue for 3/4 if we just have 3 high OBP guys, and 2/4 if we landed a big time bat like a Holiday or Lee).

4th post on this forum, I'm new, so please take it easy on me. :)

[chocolatesquirrel]

Ok, Lowe seems to get decent run support, but if I were Vazquez or Jurrjens I would have started crapping in some of these hitter's lockers just so they knew how much I appreciated their "offensive support."

And on top of no hitting, we have to overcome what has to be the worst umpiring crew in the history of baseball. Seriously, how bad were the umps in this series. They had a seasons worth of bad calls in one 4 game series. Jeez.

[Agent-X-]

What stands out to me is that we're not talking about needing to fill one hole in the lineup but needing significant improvement out of half of it.

I could expect KJ to right his ship sooner or later, and when he does it's going to be a major shot in the arm for the club. However, we still have two gaping holes in LF and RF. I'd wager that Jordan Schafer will solve one of those problems down the stretch.

Assuming Kotchman plays the rest of the season, we still have one glaring hole to fill. Do you go after a big bat when so much hinges on the productivity of the other spots? Do you even make the playoffs your goal? The good thing about the state of this organization is that it has the potential to be both a buyer and a seller this year. We have reason for hope in the face of losing.

[BigWorm]

Our pitching really is fantastic. This is the first time in years I've been so confident in not only our starters but our bullpen as well. Huge fan of Gonzo, Soriano, Medlen, O'Flaherty, and Acosta. When Campillo is healthy, he's a very solid long relief guy as well. I used to like Moylan, and I'm sure he'll hit stride once again, but he and Bennett are definitely killing me this year.

If the Braves are able to get some consistency out of either corner of the OF, 1B (which will happen when Kotch comes back), and 2B we'll start winning those 2 out of 3 like Bobby always preaches, and I could see us landing in the playoffs.

That said; I don't see KJ coming out of his slump any time soon, and I don't think Frenchie or GA will ever give us much more than what they are now. The Braves only hope of postseason this year is by getting some production out of LF, RF, 1B, and/or 2B. (I'd argue for 3/4 if we just have 3 high OBP guys, and 2/4 if we landed a big time bat like a Holiday or Lee).

4th post on this forum, I'm new, so please take it easy on me. :)

Welcome, and great post BTW.

I'm with you Charlotte, I don't think we're as far off as some think we are. The Braves seem to play to the level of their competition and against the Pirates and Nationals of the world, we always seem to find ourselves in nailbiters. It still is too early in the season to write off the Braves. We're hanging around .500 with basically three contributing hitters (Yunel, Chipper, and McCann). The McLouth effect will be felt sooner rather than later, he will make a big difference in this lineup over time. We need consistent productivity out of two more guys. KJ has to be one of those two. He is the hinge on the door that can make us swing either way. It's imperative that starts to produce like he thinks he can. (or like Dreamymcdreamsters thinks he can) I can see us going on a nice run 7 out of 10 or 11 out of 15. It's going to take a two-week long run to get us truly in the thick of the race. One game at a time, and it needs to start soon. With our starting pitching, we'll be in most games, no matter the ferocity of the competition. That's why I'm not as nervous as some are about the upcoming schedule. Go Braves!

[wordslayer©]

Hi all!

Hobbes....please leave my post count at zero. On the old boards I was known as Wahoo.

As far as right field and left field are concerned, I just think we trade/release them and pick up anything. Minor leagures...fine.....washed up verterans...fine. Little leaguers....fine. It really doesn't matter. I'm just sick of seeing the trash we have out there now.

Trading Vasquez would be insane. It's the one piece that I would hold on to. I like rooting for players that don't make me want to vomit when they play.

[Hobbes]

Hi all!

Hobbes....please leave my post count at zero.
Welcome to our new home.

Do you really not want me to update your count?

[wordslayer©]

Welcome to our new home.

Do you really not want me to update your count?

Nope...don't update my count. Leave it at zero. It's my tribute to Francoeur's batting average.

You all did a pretty neat job with the new website.

[IkeWagner]

I'm so tired of this "we blew the lead for X" or "we didn't get X the win". Will baseball ever come to realize that the W-L record is a terrible way to gauge a pitcher's performance?

[wordslayer©]

I'm so tired of this "we blew the lead for X" or "we didn't get X the win". Will baseball ever come to realize that the W-L record is a terrible way to gauge a pitcher's performance?

As long as major league baseball is run by the Taliban, I can't ever see it changing.

[IkeWagner]

Though, I've always been more upset that we blew the lead or didn't score in general.

That's exactly the point - we should be upset about that and not that it costed a pitcher a win that he would have only partly contributed to.

[chocolatesquirrel]

I'd wager that Jordan Schafer will solve one of those problems down the stretch.


I agree with you. Look Jordan had his struggles but the guy had a nagging wrist injury since the 2nd or 3rd game of the season, and apparently a deep bone bruise on the same hand. If he can get healthy and learn to cut down his swing a bit, I really think he's going to be a quality hitter. Not to mention if he can get on base, he's definitely got some speed that we can use. I blame Bobby for trotting him out there everyday, with an injury that Bobby was aware of, and just letting him destroy his confidence at the plate. But such is the managerial style of the "player's manager" Bobby Cox.

[chocolatesquirrel]

Oh yeah, forgot to mention this. Did anyone see TP doing his job today? After Kelly returned to the dugout after yet another terrible at bat, TP.....wait for it......wait for it....PATTED KELLY ON THE BACK!!! WOW!!!! Where do you get coaching like that these days? Nowhere but in TP's dugout!

[Agent-X-]

Oh yeah, forgot to mention this. Did anyone see TP doing his job today? After Kelly returned to the dugout after yet another terrible at bat, TP.....wait for it......wait for it....PATTED KELLY ON THE BACK!!! WOW!!!! Where do you get coaching like that these days? Nowhere but in TP's dugout!

That's TP for you. TP [Toilet Paper] is only good for one thing... and you know what that is.

[Andy G.]

Kelly Johnson's BABIP(Batting Average on Balls In Play) is way below his career average. This year it's .266. His BABIP coming into this season was .326.

If his BABIP was .325 this year, he would have eight more hits than he does right now. His batting average would be .279. If all eight of those hits were singles, his numbers would look like .279/.339/.447. That would be an OPS of .786. That's not amazing or anything, but it's 81 points higher than his actual OPS right now(.705).

I know how things work. You can't just say that he should have the a BABIP identical to his career mark coming into the season, but you have to recognize what that number means. His career OPS is .784. Notice how that's only two points off of what it would be if his BABIP weren't all out of whack? His numbers are skewed right now. He's had some bad luck.

The great thing is that we're just 53 games into the season. He'll get hot soon enough, and it won't all be a product of how streaky he is. Some of it will be his luck evening out.

[luvdembravos]

After Kelly returned to the dugout after yet another terrible at bat, TP.....wait for it......wait for it....PATTED KELLY ON THE BACK!!! WOW!!!! Where do you get coaching like that these days?

Little League 101.

[JanShan12]

Oh yeah, forgot to mention this. Did anyone see TP doing his job today? After Kelly returned to the dugout after yet another terrible at bat, TP.....wait for it......wait for it....PATTED KELLY ON THE BACK!!! WOW!!!! Where do you get coaching like that these days? Nowhere but in TP's dugout!

That's frustrating. I wish I wouldn't have read this before I leave for work. It's put me in a bad mood from the start.

[jamminHANES]

Kelly Johnson's BABIP(Batting Average on Balls In Play) is way below his career average. This year it's .266. His BABIP coming into this season was .326.

If his BABIP was .325 this year, he would have eight more hits than he does right now. His batting average would be .279. If all eight of those hits were singles, his numbers would look like .279/.339/.447. That would be an OPS of .786. That's not amazing or anything, but it's 81 points higher than his actual OPS right now(.705).

I know how things work. You can't just say that he should have the a BABIP identical to his career mark coming into the season, but you have to recognize what that number means. His career OPS is .784. Notice how that's only two points off of what it would be if his BABIP weren't all out of whack? His numbers are skewed right now. He's had some bad luck.

The great thing is that we're just 53 games into the season. He'll get hot soon enough, and it won't all be a product of how streaky he is. Some of it will be his luck evening out.

Truth.