Fun BP Article...

[Dreamscape]

Baseball Prospectus put out a paid column (http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=10257) in which they discussed the No Turnover Standings, or basically where teams would rank made up of rosters of players they originally signed or drafted. No trades, no free agents. Using WARP, we get a very different playoff picture for 2009. In the AL, the Mariners win a league-best 107 games. Joining them as division champs are the Twins and Blue Jays (!). The Red Sox and Rangers would tie for the Wild Card. The Yanks and Angels, the AL leaders in wins last year, would both be out. The Yanks would be competitive, a game behind the Sawx, while the Angels would win 69 games, third worst with only the Orioles and Rays behind that.

In the NL, the Rockies and Dodgers would flip-flop their standings from last year, both going back to the playoffs, but this time with the Rockies taking the division with a majors-best 108 wins. Dodgers six back as the Wild Card. The Cardinals join the Twins as the only division champ from last year to return to the playoffs in this mock system.

The NL East...The Mets are last with 68 wins. Only the Pads (who have the worst record with just 55 wins) and the Reds are worse in the NL. The Marlins are fourth. Nats (helped out by their Expo dealings) would finish two games under. The Phils are second and that puts the Braves in first in the NL East with a cool 100 victories.

It was a banner year for the Braves in No-Turnover standings as they have been in the mid-80 win range the previous two years. Can you imagine having Hanson/Wainwright for the next ten years?

[Dreamscape]

Found the roster (http://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key=t0E2MpKtKqTRknQQauA6mow&single=true&gid=0&output=html)...
SP
Bruce Chen
Kyle Davies
Tommy Hanson
Matt Harrison
Kenshin Kawakami
Anthony Lerew
Jason Marquis
Kevin Millood
Charlie Morton
Jason Schmidt
Adam Wainwright

RP
Winston Abreu
Jose Ascanio
Matt Belisle
Blaine Boyer
Jorge Campillo
Roman Colon
Dan Mayer
Kris Medlen
Joe Nelson
James Parr
Horacio Ramirez
Jo-Jo Reyes
Merkin Valdez
Chris Waters
Sean White

C
Tyler Flowers
Brian McCann
Brayan Pena
Jarrod Saltalamacchia
Clint Sammons

IF
Elvis Andus
Wilson Betemit
Barbaro Canizares
Mark DeRosa
Yunel Escobar
Rafael Furcal
Tony Graffanio
Nick Green
Wes Helms
Diory Hernandez
Luis Hernandez
Kelly Johnson
Chipper Jones
Adam LaRoche
Andy Marte
Pete Orr
Tony Pena
Martin Prado

OF
Gregor Blanco
Jermaine Dye
Jeff Francoeur
Andruw Jones
Brandon Jones
Garrett Jones
Ryan Langerhans

[LeeTro]

Seeing Andrus and Salty (why isn't Feliz on there?) just reminds me of how much the Braves set themselves back with the Teixeira trades. If we would have gotten Morales and Jepsen, which was feasible in July '08, it wouldn't be so bad. Morales would maybe be too much for a 3-month rental, but considering what the Braves gave Texas, I think it could have happened. If only hindsight applied to real life....

[Dreamscape]

(why isn't Feliz on there?)
Looks like he had him originally signed by Colorado. I don't really know why.

[KB 34]

Seeing Andrus and Salty (why isn't Feliz on there?) just reminds me of how much the Braves set themselves back with the Teixeira trades. If we would have gotten Morales and Jepsen, which was feasible in July '08, it wouldn't be so bad. Morales would maybe be too much for a 3-month rental, but considering what the Braves gave Texas, I think it could have happened. If only hindsight applied to real life....
It wasn't hard to see at the time that Teixiera was a high risk-high reward acquisition with a very low chance of the deal succeeding. Giving up the prospects the Braves did never bothered me since most prospects are busts anyhow. The problem was they were valuable prospects can could have brought back some really good talent. The moral of the story was not to make desperation moves at the trading deadline that probably won't work. Fortunately the Braves learned their lesson by making the best of the situation a year later. Of course the national media never looked at the deals as separate deals made by two different people but whatever.

[HaRdCoReBrAvEsFaN]

Where's Giles?

[Dreamscape]

Where's Giles?
Marcus Giles didn't play last year.

[HaRdCoReBrAvEsFaN]

makes sense then

[Gman]

Seeing Andrus and Salty (why isn't Feliz on there?) just reminds me of how much the Braves set themselves back with the Teixeira trades. If we would have gotten Morales and Jepsen, which was feasible in July '08, it wouldn't be so bad. Morales would maybe be too much for a 3-month rental, but considering what the Braves gave Texas, I think it could have happened. If only hindsight applied to real life....

Hindsight is a wonderful thing. The fact is the Braves had a solid shot at the post season the year they got Tex (2007) and in 2008 they were looking great on paper going into the season until Smotz, Hudson, Glavine, Hampton and Soriano all went down for most of the season. They lost about 80 starts from those 4 starters and about 50 appearances from Soriano. There isn't a team in baseball who can survive that kind of hit. Had Smoltz, Hudson and Soriano stayed healthy the Braves would have been in the race and kept Tex and his .310/.410/.550 line all year in 2008 to go with Chippers .365/.470/.574. There's no telling how good that team could have been. Plus they would have gotten 2 draft picks in 09 for tex instead of Kotchman and whatever.

Tex provided the Braves a legitimate shot at getting into 2 consecutive post seasons. To take that gamble they gave up what 2 years later appears to be a great defensive SS in Andrus with some offensive upside, a great potential bullpen arm in Feliz, a starter in the J.J. Reyes mold in Harrison and a budding matt stairs behind the plate. The only ones who would be starting for the Braves out of that group would be Andrus (probably at Prado's expense or worse yet, Escobar's) and Feliz who would probably have a spot in the pen. Feliz in this years pen would be nice.

[Dreamscape]

Hindsight is a wonderful thing. The fact is the Braves had a solid shot at the post season the year they got Tex (2007) and in 2008 they were looking great on paper going into the season until Smotz, Hudson, Glavine, Hampton and Soriano all went down for most of the season. They lost about 80 starts from those 4 starters and about 50 appearances from Soriano. There isn't a team in baseball who can survive that kind of hit. Had Smoltz, Hudson and Soriano stayed healthy the Braves would have been in the race and kept Tex and his .310/.410/.550 line all year in 2008 to go with Chippers .365/.470/.574. There's no telling how good that team could have been. Plus they would have gotten 2 draft picks in 09 for tex instead of Kotchman and whatever.

Tex provided the Braves a legitimate shot at getting into 2 consecutive post seasons. To take that gamble they gave up what 2 years later appears to be a great defensive SS in Andrus with some offensive upside, a great potential bullpen arm in Feliz, a starter in the J.J. Reyes mold in Harrison and a budding matt stairs behind the plate. The only ones who would be starting for the Braves out of that group would be Andrus (probably at Prado's expense or worse yet, Escobar's) and Feliz who would probably have a spot in the pen. Feliz in this years pen would be nice.
I think you are ignoring how bad the 2007 staff was when saying the Braves had a solid shot at the playoffs. After Smoltz and the resurgent Hudson, the Braves got at least nine starts each from Chuck James, Buddy Carlyle, Kyle Davies, Jo-Jo Reyes, and Lance Cormier. That's not including Mark Redman. All of those players pitched like fifth starters or spot starters with the possible exception of James, who really wasn't that good. The offense was good, even better with Teix, but the pitching was why the Braves sunk to 7.5 out after the trade occurred. They were doing well to stay in the race before Teix, but fact is, they didn't have the staying power. Possibly there was a lack of starters on the market, but that still does not excuse sending all of those prospects for Teix (and yes, Mahay).

We can talk up how Salty wouldn't be starting, Harrison was fringe material, and Andrus isn't needed, but that really doesn't matter. What is of great concern is the type of player, or more specifically, type of pitcher a package like that could have brought back in the '07-08 offseason. For reference, Johan Santana was picked up for next to nothing.

Hindsight is wonderful...but, had Schuerholz used his foresight, he would have seen this as a gamble doomed to failure.

[Hobbes]

What is of great concern is the type of player, or more specifically, type of pitcher a package like that could have brought back in the '07-08 offseason. For reference, Johan Santana was picked up for next to nothing.
To be fair, Santana cost little in trade pieces because he was due for a huge payday, and few teams were interested in acquiring him due to that. The kind of big upside, low-cost pitcher the Braves would have wanted would have cost much more in terms of talent. I'm not saying that the pieces used for Teix couldn't have landed such a player, only that it would have taken a whole lot more than it took to get Santana.

[Dreamscape]

To be fair, Santana cost little in trade pieces because he was due for a huge payday, and few teams were interested in acquiring him due to that. The kind of big upside, low-cost pitcher the Braves would have wanted would have cost much more in terms of talent. I'm not saying that the pieces used for Teix couldn't have landed such a player, only that it would have taken a whole lot more than it took to get Santana.
Very true and comparison isn't worthwhile. Maybe Dan Haren is a better example. At the time, Haren had three seasons of control. The A's got a couple of good players, the D'Backs got their star pitcher. Teix's package compares quite well to Haren's. The Braves needed a player like Haren, too, not Teix.

Ultimately, I don't agree with the idea that the Braves didn't "suffer" from not having these players in-house in terms of what those players have provided so far (and all of them are still very young). And I realize it's tempting to bring up hindsight, but I know I wasn't the only one who was less than pleased with this deal from the hour it was reported.

[Gman]

I think you are ignoring how bad the 2007 staff was when saying the Braves had a solid shot at the playoffs. After Smoltz and the resurgent Hudson, the Braves got at least nine starts each from Chuck James, Buddy Carlyle, Kyle Davies, Jo-Jo Reyes, and Lance Cormier. That's not including Mark Redman. All of those players pitched like fifth starters or spot starters with the possible exception of James, who really wasn't that good. The offense was good, even better with Teix, but the pitching was why the Braves sunk to 7.5 out after the trade occurred. They were doing well to stay in the race before Teix, but fact is, they didn't have the staying power. Possibly there was a lack of starters on the market, but that still does not excuse sending all of those prospects for Teix (and yes, Mahay).

We can talk up how Salty wouldn't be starting, Harrison was fringe material, and Andrus isn't needed, but that really doesn't matter. What is of great concern is the type of player, or more specifically, type of pitcher a package like that could have brought back in the '07-08 offseason. For reference, Johan Santana was picked up for next to nothing.

Hindsight is wonderful...but, had Schuerholz used his foresight, he would have seen this as a gamble doomed to failure.

They had as much staying power in their rotation in '07 as the Phils (Hamels, Moyer, Eaton, Lohse, Kendrick) and Mets (Glavine, Maine, Ol. Perez, El Duque, Jorge Sosa). That was the competition. Schuerholz gamble was that with Tex coming into the cleanup slot and Andruw moving down to 6th it would kick start Andruw and give them the offense to win. Andruw's prior two years were pretty huge with 51 HRs and 41 HRs and he was only 30 yrs old. At the mid-point of 07 his slash line was a paltry .211/.310/.410. Schuerholz was definitely banking on BOTH the addition of Tex and a likely solid 2nd half rebound from Andruw to cover the weaknesses in the back of the rotation. Schuerholz bet was not doomed from the start, it didn't work because Andruw's 2nd half matched his first half. Should Schuerholz have seen that coming? Did anyone see that giant fall coming? The dodgers sure didn't.

[Dreamscape]

It was a bad division and I guess you could argue it was anyone's ballgame. But getting Teix was not going to match the Phillies offense. By the way, the Mets pitching had a good year. Maine, Perez, and El Dukie each put up pretty good seasons.

On Jones...Schuerholz had four months to watch Jones struggle. I don't think the bet was that Jones would have a solid two months, but that Teix would make up for what Jones wasn't doing. There was no reason to think Jones was suddenly going to put it together in 2007. From what I recall from that offseason, the Dodgers were a surprise to offer that money to Andruw when no one else was all that interested. I think that says a lot of teams weren't so sure he could just put it all together, either.

Maybe I'm wrong. Maybe I was wrong at the time to say that this deal wasn't going to help the Braves that much. I remember arguing the trade was worth maybe two more wins and the Braves needed more. And not Octavio Dotel more, they needed starting pitching. Instead of focusing on the obvious weaknesses of the team, Schuerholz went for the grand deal. It's one of the reasons I think he was already on his retirement tour before announcing it. He went for the little cherry to put on the top of his GM career. Sadly, the Braves suffered because of it.

[Gman]

It was a bad division and I guess you could argue it was anyone's ballgame. But getting Teix was not going to match the Phillies offense. By the way, the Mets pitching had a good year. Maine, Perez, and El Dukie each put up pretty good seasons.

I know will never agree on this and your right the Braves offense wasn't going to match the Phils offense just with Tex. They needed Andruw to finish the season as the hitter he had been the prior two years. Instead Aaron Rowand became that hitter for the Phils while andruw did what Rowand had been doing the prior two years (and the next 3 years after that).


On Jones...Schuerholz had four months to watch Jones struggle. I don't think the bet was that Jones would have a solid two months, but that Teix would make up for what Jones wasn't doing.
No one gives up that fast on a guy who averaged 45 hrs for the prior two years. A 3 month down tick for a guy with Andruw's hitting approach isn't that rare. LaRoche has done it for 3 straight years and Andruw had a much better track record. In July of 07 before the trade Andruw went .263/.370/.566 with 8hrs in 99 abs and was giving every indication he was about to get on a roll. Again hindsight is a wonderful thing because you can just look at the end result and not at what was happening at the time.



Maybe I'm wrong. Maybe I was wrong at the time to say that this deal wasn't going to help the Braves that much. I remember arguing the trade was worth maybe two more wins and the Braves needed more. And not Octavio Dotel more, they needed starting pitching. Instead of focusing on the obvious weaknesses of the team, Schuerholz went for the grand deal. It's one of the reasons I think he was already on his retirement tour before announcing it. He went for the little cherry to put on the top of his GM career. Sadly, the Braves suffered because of it.

He went for what he thought would make the biggest difference. In hindsight you were right but not because of the Tex deal. It was clearly because of Andruw. The thing is Schuerholz went for it. The Cards gambled on Holliday but didn't win a ring. The Phils got Cliff Lee but didn't win a ring. Boston got Vmart but didn't win a ring. Their GMs are pretty smart guys. Those GMs were willing to take risks because they know how hard it is to even get in the position to take a risk. You can sit back and be fawned over for having a nice farm system or you can try to use it to win. Tex gave the Braves a 2 year window to get a ring and the Braves had two HOF studs still performing at peak levels when they made this deal (Smoltz and Chipper) with no young peers on the near horizon of that caliber. To me it was a great opportunity and one worth trying to take advantage of. It failed but it still hasn't killed their farm system like so many have said. We're down one good young defensive shortstop and a stud bullpen arm that's one pitch short of being a two pitch pitcher. Harrison and Salty would have been gone by now for much less given what they have done in Texas.

[KB 34]

The problem was the Braves had Smoltz, Chipper, Teix, and no money or resources left to put a team together around them within 2 years. I fully agree the Braves had every reason to use some of the Teix prospects to make deals. However, half that package could have acquired the Braves a nice player. More disturbing to me was the Braves didn't address the problem of the time, which was starting pitching. If they had added starting pitching there was a chance Andruw would get his act together and the offense would be much improved.

If JS was functioning as a legendary GM near the end of his career, I believe he may have known to pull the trigger on an Andruw deal the previous deadline and accepted a package of Crisp, Lester, and whatever. It would have taken brilliant skills to know Andruw was on his way down, but it may have been possible for the right GM. I'm convinced he was average at best the second he published his book.

[Andy G.]

Goodness gracious. :no:

[KB 34]

Since I like to be optimistic when in doubt I shall further develop my second point.

There are several different talent evaluations a GM and his minnions undertake.
1. Drafting
ex. Should we draft Blake Beavan, Jason Heyward, or Peter Kozma
2. Evaluation for acquisitions
ex. We'll try to acquire Bonds, oh wait, they don't want to deal so let's sign Maddux.
3. Internal Player evaluation
ex. Should we trade Renteria and turn things over to Escobar with Lillibridge as a backup

There are definitely more classifications, but I've had some ideas about the third because the Braves did really well for a long time knowing what prospects to deal, and which of their own free agents to let go and get draft picks. It's definitely different from evaluating external talent since they're not around the locker room everyday and they cannot be analyzed as well. Therefore, teams should have a better chance making smart decisions with their own players opposed to acquisitions even if modern communication decreases the barrier a lot.

A prime example of the right move with the Braves' making a decision on one of their free agents/pending free agents was Smoltz. He made a career burning people who doubted his ability until last season. The Braves denied him the guaranteed money and were right to do so. The way it happened was ugly but the baseball side of the situation was perfectly played by Wren. The last brilliant move of this sort by JS was the Hudson deal. Meyer was highly touted, Juan Cruz was slated to move to the rotation, and Charles Johnson was the hero who saved the day. None of them panned out as the A's planned. They had nice value but JS knew exactly when to deal them.

Wren did quite well early on by dealing Renteria and turning the reins over to Escobar, which was a highly questioned move at the time by the experts. Choosing Escobar over Lillibridge was also the right move. I can't think of many examples of the Braves really blowing it with internal analysis. No one could have predicted Boone was going to take steroids after he left, and Javy Lopez's extension is a bit goofy considering steroids revived his game quite well. Maybe Giles, but once again steroids potential enter the picture. The main example I can think of is Andruw, where his last season with the Braves was horrible and everyone was glad to see him gone, an almost impossible thought a year before that. Could the Braves have predicted that? I really have to wonder about the circumstances, given the way JS when after Teix. Did JS go for it more than I thought before, by gambling Andruw would hold out one more season and crash into the ground a season after he did? I really have to wonder.

[Dreamscape]

Andruw Jones had also put up a .487 OPS in June and a .629 OPS the month before. His average had also slipped to .232 if you just take the month of July after the All-Star Break, possibly indicating that his "roll" wasn't to be. Either way, to base your opinion that he had turned the corner on one month of action would have been as shortsighted then as it is now. You can't bank on it. Maybe you don't give up on him and I never supported benching him as some kind of odd solution, but it was, at the time, looking like a lost year. Yes, prior numbers indicated he should be better, but the prior numbers were really not in the discussion with every weak-looking at-bat Andruw took that year. How could you watch him take every corkscrew swing, looking more and more messed up than the swing before, and think "oh, he can pull through?"

Again, I don't care to still have any of these players, but I do acknowledge that they were used for the wrong deal. In none of the deals you use as a comparison did those teams give up, really, all that much. The Braves gave up, what was considered at the time (not what we now look at), as three top prospects, all B-grade or higher, for a guy they were not going to be able to sign long-term (that's not hindsight) and a guy who did not fix their problems. It's why the Braves have had to focus the last couple of offseasons on starting pitching so much. It was ignored for a few years and allowed to become the weakness it was.

I know this is simply rehashing the same argument. But this is the one thing about Schuerholz I can't let pass. He made a horrible deal, one that had about a 2% chance of yieling positive results, and then left the position and team in a worse shape than they were before the trade. He took away the possibility to use those players in a better deal, a smarter deal. Frankly, it was the move that cemented him in mind as an overrated GM.