I predict......

[KB 34]

Instructions: Make an original prediction about the upcoming season. I'll go first.

On July 17 the Braves trade Cody Johnson, Jo Jo Reyes, and Martin Prado to the Giants for Edgar Renteria and a PTBNL.

Renteria takes over at 2B as the Braves use the veteran leadership plan. The new lineup is....

McLouth CF
Renteria 2B
Chipper 3B
Hinske 1B
McCann C
Escobar ss
Cabrera/Diaz LF
Cabrera/Heyward RF

[Andy G.]

Wow. That's an original prediction. Mine's not quite as bold.

Troy Glaus will play 140 games and hit 30 homeruns.

After typing that I realized you didn't even have Glaus in your "new" lineup. Lame.

[bravos4evr]

I predict that at the trade deadline The Braves will do nothing of merit(in other words, maybe a pen arm or bench guy_ !

I also predict that Glaus will play a ton of games and his presence in the lineup will help Chipper regain his batting champ form and be in the race at the end of the year with an AVG of .335. I also think his OPS crosses the 1.000 line again!

my final preiction is that Jurrjens,Hudson,Hanson,Kawakami and Lowe will all reach double digits in wins with the breakdown as such


Jurrjens-19
Hudson-16
Hanson-16
Lowe-13
Kawakami-11

[Hobbes]

I predict that KB will continue to portray the Braves front office as a bunch of monkeys making bonehead move after bonehead move. He will continue to assume that everything bad that can happen will happen, and continue to mention bad players from the past as proof that such moves will happen again.

Oh wait, that prediction has already come true - time and time again. :p

[piratelooksat40]

I predict that Matin Prado will start at second and have a solid but not stellar year. Cabrera will at some point cause problems in the outfield and in the clubhouse when Heyward comes up and Diaz will be put in LF with Heyward in RF. I predict Chipper will not have the same type of year he had two years ago but will return to form if he can stay off the DL for any extended period of time. I also predict that both he and Glaus will spend a portion of the season on the DL and we will scramble for a solid replacement before the all-star break. I predict the pitching staff to be solid and have several double digit winners but I don't think any of them approach 20 games. I predict JJ and Lowe to approach 15 but TH and Hudson will be below 15 wins and KK will be around 12. The Braves will again pile up too many no-decisions for these guys. In the end, I think BC will come close to reaching his wins milestone. I'm shooting for 90 wins but am concerned we may fall just short of post season like last year.
Hope I'm wrong

[CanadaBravesFan]

I predict that Yunel Escobar plants himself as a top-tier SS and puts up a line of .325 20-100. The Braves win 94 games, make the playoffs, and cause quite a stir once they are in there.

[bravos4evr]

CBF is onto something. This team is built to win short series playoff baseball. Our top 3 match up with anyone in the league and our top 4 are prolly better than anyone not called The Yankees. Getting into the playofs however..... It's gonna be a battle.

[CanadaBravesFan]

CBF is onto something. This team is built to win short series playoff baseball. Our top 3 match up with anyone in the league and our top 4 are prolly better than anyone not called The Yankees. Getting into the playofs however..... It's gonna be a battle.

Thats exactly what I mean. We will be "Beasts of the Night" when we get into the dance. I would hate to have to face Hanson, JJ, and Hudson in a short series. We need to stay healthy.

[Wahoo]

I predict that one of the Top 3 in that Braves starting rotation will undergo Tommy John surgery this year.

[KB 34]

I predict that one of the Top 3 in that Braves starting rotation will undergo Tommy John surgery this year.
I predict that post is going to be quite controversial. Honestly though, it's not the end of the season if it happens. Medlen could easily step up and become a really good starting pitcher. I don't think it takes a cynic to believe an injury along those lines will happen this season either.

Since I anticipate another round of 'KB=negative, wear the rosy glasses, the Braves will magically be contenders again', here's another prediction.

I predict that Medlen will make at least 25 starts this season and finish the season averaging over 5.8 innings/start and an ERA below 4.2.

[Andy G.]

I predict that post is going to be quite controversial. Honestly though, it's not the end of the season if it happens. Medlen could easily step up and become a really good starting pitcher. I don't think it takes a cynic to believe an injury along those lines will happen this season either.
This is what gets me KB. You "think an injury along those lines will happen" every year. You don't just acknowledge the possibility and/or the likelihood of an injury, you tell yourself and all of us that it will happen, every single time.

Since I anticipate another round of 'KB=negative, wear the rosy glasses, the Braves will magically be contenders again', here's another prediction.
They won't magically be contenders again. They'll be contenders because of the players they've acquired, held on to, and developed in recent years. There certainly wasn't anything magical about last season and they were contenders then.

[mojochopper]

I predict Wags hits a few minor bumps in the road but otherwise remains healthy and produces 30+ saves and a sub 3.00 ERA this season. I'm not sold as high on Saito. I think he will be good for the most part but he has had elbow problems and I can see a more extended time spent on th DL.

[KB 34]

They won't magically be contenders again. They'll be contenders because of the players they've acquired, held on to, and developed in recent years. There certainly wasn't anything magical about last season and they were contenders then.
Since when do baseball contenders rehab and watch the playoffs in October?

[Dreamscape]

Now, KB, the Braves did contend last year. Finishing six games out of the playoffs is contending, isn't?

[KB 34]

I have high standards for contending. I'd have to define contending as making the playoffs, or being in a position where a team should have made the playoffs and finished with a better record than other teams in the playoffs from the same league. Another way to look at this would be in terms of perecentages. 3/16 teams in the NL made the playoffs last season, or 19%. Two other teams in the NL finished with a better record than the Braves. That makes the Braves the 6th best team out of 16 NL teams with 31% of NL teams better than the Braves. Is being in the 69th percentile contending? I really don't think so. I won't argue the Braves didn't have an incredible run to finish off the season. It simply wasn't enough after a tough season leading up to that point.

[The Rap]

Given the opportunity I think Medlen can win at least 12 games with an ERA around 3.00.

[Andy G.]

Another way to look at this would be in terms of perecentages. 3/16 teams in the NL made the playoffs last season, or 19%. Two other teams in the NL finished with a better record than the Braves. That makes the Braves the 6th best team out of 16 NL teams with 31% of NL teams better than the Braves. Is being in the 69th percentile contending? I really don't think so. I won't argue the Braves didn't have an incredible run to finish off the season. It simply wasn't enough after a tough season leading up to that point.
That doesn't mean anything. The Braves were in the hunt for a playoff spot in the second half of September. I'm not going to argue semantics with you. The Braves had a shot at the playoffs down the stretch in '09, and that was after spending the first half of the season with a starting roster far less talented than the one they finished with. It is arguable that the roster now is stronger than the one that finished the season with a red hot Laroche and Javier Vazquez, but there is no denying that the team we have now will be stronger over the course of the season. That is, unless, you believe that every single player who is an "injury risk", and even some of them who are not, will miss a significant portion of the season. That's your belief, obviously, because you have the same mindset going into every single season, but it is an irrational and confused way of thinking.

[Murphys#1Fan]

I predict that Matin Prado will start at second and have a solid but not stellar year. Cabrera will at some point cause problems in the outfield and in the clubhouse when Heyward comes up and Diaz will be put in LF with Heyward in RF. I predict Chipper will not have the same type of year he had two years ago but will return to form if he can stay off the DL for any extended period of time. I also predict that both he and Glaus will spend a portion of the season on the DL and we will scramble for a solid replacement before the all-star break. I predict the pitching staff to be solid and have several double digit winners but I don't think any of them approach 20 games. I predict JJ and Lowe to approach 15 but TH and Hudson will be below 15 wins and KK will be around 12. The Braves will again pile up too many no-decisions for these guys. In the end, I think BC will come close to reaching his wins milestone. I'm shooting for 90 wins but am concerned we may fall just short of post season like last year.
Hope I'm wrong


Was going to post mine but the Pirate already did it for me. We agree completely.

[Dreamscape]

I have high standards for contending. I'd have to define contending as making the playoffs, or being in a position where a team should have made the playoffs and finished with a better record than other teams in the playoffs from the same league. Another way to look at this would be in terms of perecentages. 3/16 teams in the NL made the playoffs last season, or 19%. Two other teams in the NL finished with a better record than the Braves. That makes the Braves the 6th best team out of 16 NL teams with 31% of NL teams better than the Braves. Is being in the 69th percentile contending? I really don't think so. I won't argue the Braves didn't have an incredible run to finish off the season. It simply wasn't enough after a tough season leading up to that point.
KB, this really doesn't make a whole lot of sense.

First problem...if you are going to use percentages to gauge the entire league, you run into the problem of strength of schedule, which does exist in baseball. Most notably, the division you play an unbalanced schedule against and the interleague teams you may be matched up with.

Second problem...Pythagorean win-loss record had the Braves with a 90-72 record. Obviously, that won't put them in the playoffs because pyW-L is just a theory, not actually what happened, but by that record, the Braves are tied with the Rockies and Cardinals for the third best pyW-L in the NL. The Rockies and Cardinals, of course, made the playoffs. By all accounts, the Braves were just as good as they were, thus, they were contending.

[The Rap]

BFH, interesting but I think you are lowballing Heyward. If he makes the team as a starter it will be because the team felt he is ready and if he is then by definition he is no an 8th place hitter.

[Hobbes]

Bobby *will* start Heyward down in the order, because that is what Bobby does. If Heyward proves his capability over an extended period of time, he will likely move up. But Bobby won't take a rookie who hasn't even had a cup of coffee and add the extra pressure of a high slot in the order.

[jamminHANES]

Bobby *will* start Heyward down in the order, because that is what Bobby does. If Heyward proves his capability over an extended period of time, he will likely move up. But Bobby won't take a rookie who hasn't even had a cup of coffee and add the extra pressure of a high slot in the order.

http://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/ATL/1995-batting-orders.shtml

Chipper's rookie season. Prior to the first game of that season he had 4 major league at bats and started 1995 batting 3rd. Bobby's done it before, and he just has not had a talent like Heyward to do it again. I doubt he has so much confidence that he puts him there right away. However, if Chipper rests for a game and Heyward is producing, Bobby could move JHey to 3rd and if it works he may stick with it.

Of course, all of this depends on Heywards production being so good that he is capable of handling the responsibilities of batting 3rd on a productive team.

[Dreamscape]

http://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/ATL/1995-batting-orders.shtml

Chipper's rookie season. Prior to the first game of that season he had 4 major league at bats and started 1995 batting 3rd. Bobby's done it before, and he just has not had a talent like Heyward to do it again. I doubt he has so much confidence that he puts him there right away. However, if Chipper rests for a game and Heyward is producing, Bobby could move JHey to 3rd and if it works he may stick with it.

Of course, all of this depends on Heywards production being so good that he is capable of handling the responsibilities of batting 3rd on a productive team.
Not only did he bat a rookie Chipper third in 1995, the most used number three hitter in 1994 was Ryan Klesko, a rookie that year as well.

I also agree that Cox would consider Heyward in the third spot if Chipper needs a day off, but I think Cox is gunshy about putting Chipper in the cleanup role. Chipper seems to not like batting in that spot and simply, Cox is just comfortable with Chipper in the third spot. The thing is, if Heyward is not batting third, the chances of him hitting above sixth in the lineup are pretty minimal unless McCann has the day off.

Either way...if it was my lineup, it would look like this.

McLouth
Escobar
Chipper
Glaus
McCann
Diaz
Heyward
Prado

I don't agree that Escobar should hit lower because I'm a firm believer that you bat your best hitters the highest in the lineup and Esco is simply a better hitter than Prado. The lineup would be hell on managers to pick their poison...do I bring in a lefty to face McCann and Heyward when Diaz brutalizes lefties? Or go to the southpaw to face Chipper to switch him around, but then have to face Glaus because you want to keep the lefty in to face McCann?

Of course, during the year, ignoring injuries and off days, you can move the lineup around to fit the hot hitters.

[The Rap]

I never said Heyward should bat near the top of the order but he shouldnlt bat 8th which is reserved for the team's weakest hitter. I see him in the 7 hole and maybe the 6 to begin the season. I am confident he will move to 5th as the season progeresses and is the future #3.

[Agent-X-]

Not only did he bat a rookie Chipper third in 1995, the most used number three hitter in 1994 was Ryan Klesko, a rookie that year as well.

I also agree that Cox would consider Heyward in the third spot if Chipper needs a day off, but I think Cox is gunshy about putting Chipper in the cleanup role. Chipper seems to not like batting in that spot and simply, Cox is just comfortable with Chipper in the third spot. The thing is, if Heyward is not batting third, the chances of him hitting above sixth in the lineup are pretty minimal unless McCann has the day off.

Either way...if it was my lineup, it would look like this.

McLouth
Escobar
Chipper
Glaus
McCann
Diaz
Heyward
Prado

I don't agree that Escobar should hit lower because I'm a firm believer that you bat your best hitters the highest in the lineup and Esco is simply a better hitter than Prado. The lineup would be hell on managers to pick their poison...do I bring in a lefty to face McCann and Heyward when Diaz brutalizes lefties? Or go to the southpaw to face Chipper to switch him around, but then have to face Glaus because you want to keep the lefty in to face McCann?

Of course, during the year, ignoring injuries and off days, you can move the lineup around to fit the hot hitters.

Do you have any outside evidence to support that (ie. Chipper stated it), or is this going off the assumption that Chipper has mostly hit third throughout his career?

I know that Chipper switched to hitting cleanup the two years that we had Sheffield. All but one month in 2002, he hit fourth and put up a .972 OPS (3rd highest in his carreer). In 2003, he put up another .900+ OPS. I don't think Chipper is necessarily against the spot in the lineup, and so long he has been our most productive hitter he has hit third.

[Lauren T.]

Chipper has been very vocal for years that he likes batting third, doesn't want to bat fourth, prefers hitting third, so on and so on. He does always add the qualifier that he'll do whatever Bobby wants, but he's said his piece.

In my opinion, I don't care if Chipper's hit 3rd for over a decade. If there's someone who is better suited for the role than a declining former superstar, then plug him in. (And I'd say that about anyone, not just Chipper.)

[Hobbes]

I could be mistaken, but I do believe the entire time while we had Sheffield, Chipper was stating his discomfort of hitting in the cleanup spot, production be damned. Or maybe it was after Sheffield left that Chipper admitted he was uncomfortable. I just know that Chipper made a gripe about it. Someone will have to do the leg work to find where he said it since I'm at work...but I do recall it.
Yes, Chipper said it after Sheffield left and he returned to the third spot. He didn't gripe while he was hitting fourth, although I do recall a few hints about him being less comfortable there. He definitely expressed happiness about being back in the third spot and his preference for being there.

[Dreamscape]

I predict...

The Braves acquire Pat Burrell from the Rays for Cody Johnson and a PTBNL with the Rays picking up most of his salary. Burrell, in a contract year and with the added incentative to beat the Phillies, tears it up in the second half. With Matt Diaz giving both Heyward (against tough lefties) and Burrell regular rest, the rotation system in the outfield keeps the Braves moving forward and Cabrera picks up some defensive assignments late in the game.

I keep having this random, what if, thought when it comes to Burrell. The Rays want to get rid of him, know they have to take on a lot of salary to do so, and the Braves could use Burrell's power. For a short-term pickup, he could be a big time reward.

Or he could be a failure.

[KB 34]

I predict Jordan Schafer produces an OPS better than .800 with an OBP better than .360 in Atlanta next season after being called up on June 18 and forcing his way into the starting lineup.

[Hobbes]

I predict...

The Braves acquire Pat Burrell from the Rays for Cody Johnson and a PTBNL with the Rays picking up most of his salary.
With Burrell in left field we will be longing for the days of Garrett Anderson's defense.

[Dreamscape]

Actually, he's bad, but he's not GAnderson bad.

[Wahoo]

My prediction? Pain.

[Redman5006]

I predict the Braves outfield will be Mclouth, Schafer and Heyward by seasons end. It may be a dream of mine more than a reality but those guys playing to their potential would be sweet.

[BigWorm]

I predict Nate McLouth will start the year on fire. He'll contend for the NL Batting title before fading at the end of the year. All-Star Break BA .344/ Final BA: .307

[jlcct]

I predict the lottery numbers somewhere in mid June at which time I donate some of it to the Braves so they can buy JV back from the Yankees.

[KB 34]

I predict the Braves outfield will be Mclouth, Schafer and Heyward by seasons end. It may be a dream of mine more than a reality but those guys playing to their potential would be sweet.
I don't think that's a stretch at all. Heyward's only the top 1 or 2 prospect in baseball, and Schafer was up there a ways before he got hurt last year and things fell apart for him royally. The Braves have a lot of roadblocks for Schafer to overcome with a planned Cabrera/Diaz platoon in LF with a hint of Infante and Hinske. I doubt they stop him from breaking onto the scene. Yes, I'm feeling better about how the outfield will be handled. Cabrera and Diaz will crash, and be replaced by an outfielder who makes us forget about them. Find that pessimistic? I don't see anything pessimistic about top prospects coming through and performing like good players. GO SCHAFER.

[Dreamscape]

Matt Diaz is a lifetime .310/.358/.459 hitter and he is supposed to crash? Have I missed Bobby's announcement about Diaz platooning with Cabrera? Schafer is supposed to be so good that he'll be more productive than a .817 OPS without much of a problem? I mean, I like Schafer, but are we supposed to ignore reality to make things easier for him?

[KB 34]

I probably used the wrong words for Diaz. I don't believe he'll be productive enough to save his position in LF. I don't think the Braves will compete until the LF platoon is gone, which is what it'll be with Diaz playing there. There hasn't been an announcement of a platoon but I can look at every other season and predict what will happen. Hey, that's how much I believe in Schafer right now. I really believe we're going to see a completely different player when he's healthy. The Braves have had some weird injury situations where players attempt to play through them and fail miserably. For example, the Soriano situation where people were ticked off he was making $6.1 million going into last season, which was promptly forgotten when he pitched well. Selective memory will rule again at the end of the day as it always does.

[Redman5006]

Matt Diaz has mostly been a platoon player if im not mistaken so his numbers may look different if he had fatigue and wear and tear from everyday action. I think it is very possible he will continue to platoon with someone to keep his numbers up. Cabrera seems to be the choice at this point. Both could be tradebait at one point if things go well for Schafer. Again, it may just be a dream of mine more than reality.

[Andy G.]

I predict that Brian McCann will put up an OPS around 1.000 and win the NL MVP award.

I wanted to get that in before the season officially began. :)

[Gman]

I believe McLouth will right the ship and have an excellent 1st half while Schafer is rocking in Gwinett. The Braves despite being right on the Phillies heels will then trade McLouth to the offensively starved Giants at the mid-point for not-quite-there-yet Jonathan Sanchez. The move will prove historic for the Braves as Sanchez turns into the next Randy Johnson beginning in the 2nd half of the year. That move then allows the Braves to move Kawakami to back-of-the-rotation-starved Seattle for an absolute jewel from their farm system.

[KB 34]

I predict that Brian McCann will put up an OPS around 1.000 and win the NL MVP award.

I wanted to get that in before the season officially began. :)
I was looking at the MVP list and in recent history a couple of catchers won the MVP in Mauer and Pudge. Granted Pudge was on plenty of steroids but so were many of the other MVPs. I pretty much pencil McCann in as an All Star and hope he takes his play to an even more amazing level. It could happen and I would be slightly surprised. McCann never gets the respect he deserves from fans for becoming a perennial All Star and clearly the best of the dud group of Braves prospects that were supposed to dominate together but never did.

[Middle Man]

My Heyward predictions:

JH will lead the team in triples - I can just see him scorching line drives down the right field line and into the corner. if the right fielder doesn't field it cleanly, JH is gone.

Pitchers may begin to wear shin guards when JH bats. I've only seen parts of two or three pre-season games and part of one regular season game, and I've already seen JH hit 3 or 4 line drives right up the middle. I've yet to see a pitcher get a glove on the ball.

Catchers will not block the plate, but will universally utilize the sweep tag, on plays at the plate involving JH, and no one will blame them.

Other random predictions:

Glaus will hit OK but the power never will reappear and Hinske will get the majority of starts at 1B by August.

McCann will bounce back from his slightly down year and will firmly establish himself as the second best catcher in baseball.

Bobby will never publicly waiver from his decision to retire - not even once.

Lowe will continue to tinker with his delivery with mixed results; however, he'll end the season with a very strong August and September, and as the Braves open their first round playoff series, he'll clearly be the team's second best pitcher.

[Agent-X-]

My Heyward predictions:

JH will lead the team in triples - I can just see him scorching line drives down the right field line and into the corner. if the right fielder doesn't field it cleanly, JH is gone.

Pitchers may begin to wear shin guards when JH bats. I've only seen parts of two or three pre-season games and part of one regular season game, and I've already seen JH hit 3 or 4 line drives right up the middle. I've yet to see a pitcher get a glove on the ball.

Catchers will not block the plate, but will universally utilize the sweep tag, on plays at the plate involving JH, and no one will blame them.

Other random predictions:

Glaus will hit OK but the power never will reappear and Hinske will get the majority of starts at 1B by August.

McCann will bounce back from his slightly down year and will firmly establish himself as the second best catcher in baseball.

Bobby will never publicly waiver from his decision to retire - not even once.

Lowe will continue to tinker with his delivery with mixed results; however, he'll end the season with a very strong August and September, and as the Braves open their first round playoff series, he'll clearly be the team's second best pitcher.

The one thing I find reassuring about Glaus is that a lot of his doubles are sharp line drives into the outfield. I'm concerned that his power may not be what it was, but there are signs that the big man still has a lot of power.

He may not hit many homers in April or May, but heading toward June I would not be surprised if he quietly began to put up solid power numbers. Of one thing to note, Glaus appeared to be just a tad late on 95+ mph fastballs. Had he gotten around on those, there's little reason to doubt he could put a hurtin' on the ball. That's the sort of thing that will come around with time. :thumbsup:

PS. On a slightly different note, does anyone really believe Eric Hinske would be a more productive bat than a low power version of Troy Glaus? Glaus did record a hit and 2 walks yesterday. It's just an echoing theme around here that Troy Glaus will be replaced in the lineup at some point this season, and I'd like to know who would be a better hitter up there other than possibly Freddie Freeman.

[The Rap]

[B]Donnie it really doesn't matter because Freeman might be ready after the ASB and once he arrives we move on to another potential problem./B]

[Agent-X-]

[B]Donnie it really doesn't matter because Freeman might be ready after the ASB and once he arrives we move on to another potential problem./B]

But Troy Glaus is not one of our potential problems. The guy has been the definition of production while in a Braves uniform. :banghead:

[The Rap]

I understand but Freeman is the plan for the future.