Adrian Gonzalez/Jason Bay/Matt Holiday Theories

[bmcvay10]

I realize this topic is covered inside the Armchair and rumors threads. However, I wanted to start a thread which solely focused on the three big names which we all have discussed this offseason. How could the Braves make one of these guys one of their own? What prospects could be used in a trade with San Diego? What moves would it take in order to make room on our payroll to bring in Holliday/Bay without tearing our chances of success in '10 down?

Some of you guys have a much better understanding of our finances than I. Saying that, I'd like to hear everybody's suggestions and theories. So, lets kick this around and figure out how to bring one of these guys to Atlanta AND hope that we aren't the only ones doing so..

[Andy G.]

I honestly don't think the Braves have enough at the top of their system to get Adrian Gonzalez. General Managers want prospects who are very close or already in the major leagues. The best we can do would be to offer Schafer, Medlen and Freeman with a talented lower level prospect or two. Schafer's development has been hurt big time in the past two years. First he had a 50 game suspension, then he had the wrist injury. Kris Medlen, were he a few inches taller and able to throw his fastball a little harder, would be very attractive. Unfortunately(I guess) he isn't very tall and doesn't throw very hard. He's still had an extremely impressive career, but in terms of trade value he is not on the same level of Tommy Hanson even before he reached the major leagues. Freddie Freeman's value is hurt by the fact that he struggled in AA last year(even if it was due to injury) and is not considered a sure thing at this point.

We definitely have the type of players it would take to round out a package. Arodys Vizcaino, Julio Teheran, Randall Delgado, Adam Milligan, Christian Bethancourt... They're all high ceiling guys that are in the lower levels of the system. The problem is the best package we could offer wouldn't be strong enough at top to convince the Padres to give us Adrian Gonzalez. I won't say it's impossible(just to give myself some wiggle room if it happens) but I'd say it's very unlikely.

[Andy G.]

As for Bay or Holliday, the only realistic way to afford them is to trade McLouth(which I never thought of before BFH pointed it out). I like McLouth a lot. He's not overpayed. He won't be a free agent soon. He's a good ballplayer that actually has a pretty unique skill set. Still, I believe Jason Bay or Matt Holliday combined with Cabrera would make our lineup much stronger than McLouth and any of the free agents available.

As for the finances, it's seriously looks like Frank Wren was preparing to make an expensive signing this offseason...until he traded for McLouth. We have relievers expected to enter the major leagues between now and the start of the 2011 season, so Saito will be replaced with a dirt cheap rookie. Freeman's supposed to be ready next year, so there's your dirt cheap firstbaseman. Our young players are so far away from arbitration that none of our existing contracts run past the point when we'll be forced to sign them to extensions. Even if we signed Bay to a five year deal, Jurrjens, Prado and Escobar won't become free agents until the final year of that deal, and Chipper, Lowe, Hudson, Kawakakami and Wagner will be long gone. This is why I think it's at least possible that Wren will trade McLouth. He might have only been brought in to give us a fighting chance in '09, because it's very likely that whatever we trade him for would be similar to or better than what we gave up for him.

[bmcvay10]

We ought to be attacking this in the same manner a store manager does inventory. We need 2 (one could argue 3) brand name players before we open shop again. We're full of the "Great Value" guys. What good would adding a case of Coca-Cola's (Bay) do if we immediately forfeited our Diet Cokes (McClouth)? We need to look towards an area where we are overstocked, or overpaying.

That area looks like it may be the bench (aside from Lowe of course). Infante = 2.25 mill, Cabrera = around 2 mill, Diaz = 2.5?, and Ross who we definitely need. The answer..trade Diaz and Cabrera. That leaves you Infante who can play every position the other two can and he has given us no reason to believe he can't handle it either. We have other guys in AAA that can play utility roles at the league minimum.

We just casted away 10 or 12 mill of payroll in the Vazquez deal. We signed Glaus and acquired Cabrera which totals just under 4 mill dollars. that should be leaving us around 6 mill just from that move. We already had about 4 or 5 mill right? So, we are sitting on 10+mill..or around there.

I don't know how easily this is done, but I say you offer Bay the 5/75mill contract with the first year discounted some in order for us to make the necessary adjustments to fully accommodate his salary...ahem...dump Lowe next offseason. I'd prefer to stick Heyward in RF opening day with Bay and McClouth out there with him than to see Diaz trot out there with McClouth and god-knows-who.

Also, this only further solidifies the organization's effort to strengthen both the farm and the big team. Bay isn't a good golve, but he should hit just fine for 5 years. If Freeman is the read deal, we are set for a while with some extra cash to replace Chipper and bullpen guys.

[bmcvay10]

I thought some of you might find this interesting..

Mike Cameron's career stats
Year ▴ Age Tm Lg G PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS OPS+ TB GDP HBP SH SF IBB Pos
1995 22 CHW AL 28 44 38 4 7 2 0 1 2 0 0 3 15 .184 .244 .316 .560 47 12 0 0 3 0 0 9/8
1996 23 CHW AL 11 12 11 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 3 .091 .167 .091 .258 -31 1 0 0 0 0 0 /98D7
1997 24 CHW AL 116 446 379 63 98 18 3 14 55 23 2 55 105 .259 .356 .433 .789 109 164 8 5 2 5 1 *89/D RoY-6
1998 25 CHW AL 141 443 396 53 83 16 5 8 43 27 11 37 101 .210 .285 .336 .621 63 133 6 6 1 3 0 *8/9
1999 26 CIN NL 146 636 542 93 139 34 9 21 66 38 12 80 145 .256 .357 .469 .825 105 254 4 6 5 3 2 *8
2000 27 SEA AL 155 643 543 96 145 28 4 19 78 24 7 78 133 .267 .365 .438 .803 107 238 10 9 7 6 0 *8/79
2001 28 SEA AL 150 633 540 99 144 30 5 25 110 34 5 69 155 .267 .353 .480 .832 123 259 13 10 1 13 3 *8/D AS,MVP-16,GG
2002 29 SEA AL 158 640 545 84 130 26 5 25 80 31 8 79 176 .239 .340 .442 .782 109 241 8 7 4 5 3 *8
2003 30 SEA AL 147 612 534 74 135 31 5 18 76 17 7 70 137 .253 .344 .431 .774 108 230 13 5 1 2 1 *8 GG
2004 31 NYM NL 140 562 493 76 114 30 1 30 76 22 6 57 143 .231 .319 .479 .798 104 236 5 8 1 3 2 *8
2005 32 NYM NL 76 343 308 47 84 23 2 12 39 13 1 29 85 .273 .342 .477 .819 114 147 5 4 1 1 0 98
2006 33 SDP NL 141 634 552 88 148 34 9 22 83 25 9 71 142 .268 .355 .482 .837 121 266 8 6 0 5 2 *8 MVP-21,GG
2007 34 SDP NL 151 651 571 88 138 33 6 21 78 18 5 67 160 .242 .328 .431 .759 104 246 9 8 2 3 1 *8
2008 35 MIL NL 120 508 444 69 108 25 2 25 70 17 5 54 142 .243 .331 .477 .809 111 212 4 6 1 3 1 *8
2009 36 MIL NL 149 628 544 78 136 32 3 24 70 7 3 75 156 .250 .342 .452 .795 111 246 12 4 0 5 3 *8
15 Seasons 1829 7435 6440 1013 1610 362 59 265 926 296 82 825 1798 .250 .340 .448 .788 107 2885 105 84 29 57 19
162 Game Avg. 162 659 570 90 143 32 5 23 82 26 7 73 159 .250 .340 .448 .788 107 256 9 7 3 5 2

Nate McClouth's career stats
Year Age Tm Lg G PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS OPS+ TB GDP HBP SH SF IBB Pos Awards
2005 23 PIT NL 41 120 109 20 28 6 0 5 12 2 0 3 20 .257 .305 .450 .755 96 49 3 5 2 1 0 8/9
2006 24 PIT NL 106 297 270 50 63 16 2 7 16 10 1 18 59 .233 .293 .385 .678 74 104 7 5 3 1 0 89/7
2007 25 PIT NL 137 382 329 62 85 21 3 13 38 22 1 39 77 .258 .351 .459 .810 110 151 2 9 3 2 2 879
2008 26 PIT NL 152 685 597 113 165 46 4 26 94 23 3 65 93 .276 .356 .497 .853 125 297 5 12 5 6 11 *8/79 AS,MVP-27,GG
2009 27 TOT NL 129 591 507 86 130 27 2 20 70 19 6 68 99 .256 .352 .436 .788 109 221 8 9 3 4 1 *8
2009 27 PIT NL 45 195 168 27 43 7 1 9 34 7 0 21 29 .256 .349 .470 .819 117 79 2 4 0 2 0 8
2009 27 ATL NL 84 396 339 59 87 20 1 11 36 12 6 47 70 .257 .354 .419 .773 105 142 6 5 3 2 1 8
5 Seasons 565 2075 1812 331 471 116 11 71 230 76 11 193 348 .260 .342 .454 .796 109 822 25 40 16 14 14
162 Game Avg. 162 595 520 95 135 33 3 20 66 22 3 55 100 .260 .342 .454 .796 109 236 7 11 5 4 4

Baseball Reference - McClouth stats (http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/mclouna01.shtml)
Baseball Reference - Cameron stats (http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/c/camermi01.shtml)

[bmcvay10]

It's a big enough gap in defense to make McLouth the type of player you can trade without overly worrying that you're going to be missing out. If McLouth were a 35 HR, 100 RBI, 30 steals guy...then maybe it would off-set his defensive ability compared to Cameron.

Expendable if you have other options that you are certain they're capable of playing every day. McClouth is as valuable to this Braves team as a 30 HR 90+ RBI guy is to most others, IMO.

Is this thread worthy of existence? I thought it'd be nice to separate this from other more "real" rumors.

[The Rap]

If Shafer busts out then McLouth is available. Till that time he isn't. Forget Holiday because signing him on his terms is a death knell for the future success of the team. Adrian might be the same inthe sense that he is the one of the three that will cost us dearly and might be too difficult a deal to make. Bay, who knows? The Mets offered him what he wanted and and it seems he doesn't want to go there. The Red Sox seem a bit interested again but I believe that if the Braves made an offer similar to the Mets, albeit, a but lower, then of the three he is the best chance we have.

[bmcvay10]

If Shafer busts out then McLouth is available. Till that time he isn't. Forget Holiday because signing him on his terms is a death knell for the future success of the team. Adrian might be the same inthe sense that he is the one of the three that will cost us dearly and might be too difficult a deal to make. Bay, who knows? The Mets offered him what he wanted and and it seems he doesn't want to go there. The Red Sox seem a bit interested again but I believe that if the Braves made an offer similar to the Mets, albeit, a but lower, then of the three he is the best chance we have.

I'm with you on Holliday..for now, Rap. However, I do think Matt is going to be disappointed in the actual offers he receives when comparing them to what he's currently demanding. Unfortunately for him, the Yankees' enormous offseason shopping spree took place last year. We all know how much the Cards would love to have Matt and Pujols next to each other for years to come..hell, who wouldn't? But if they honestly believed Matt was going to receive what he's asking, I think they would have already laid down some offers that would have made us sick to our stomachs. So, let's wait and see how the market shapes up over the next few weeks before we completely discard all Holliday possibilities.

As far as your comment on Schafer goes..that's a given. If Jordan can prove he is equally as capable as Nate, then the lower salary takes precedent over the higher one. You either use Nate to replenish the void left by Schafer's move up or other possible holes. If Schafer doesn't step us as described above, McClouth is an excellent solution to one of the outfield spots given his performance vs. salary. For now, Nate is very valuable to this club. With no real talent knocking on the door behind him aside from Schafer, as well as currently being the only proven full-season outfielder on our roster, he might be one of the most valuable pieces of our team. Not because he's a superstar but because he's the crutch in terms of our outfield. There's always a few guys who find themselves in Nate's fortunate situation where circumstances of their own club heavily increase their importance, ultimately elevating their perceived value to that particular organization.

Adrian Gonzalez, IMO, should be moved sooner than later. If I'm the Padres, I feel that every day that AG steps on the field is an unnecessary risk being taken with what has been well established to be their goldmine waiting to be tapped. The Padres aren't realistically a contender at the present moment. They let Peavy go, and almost waited too long with him. AG cannot really increase his stock much more than where it is right now. If Petco wreaks havoc with his numbers just one season (next season for example), the Padres may have lost a top-tier prospect..maybe more. There are no doubts concerning Adrian's health, talent, or character at this moment. Why jeopardize such an obviously fantastic situation they currently find themselves in?

Frank needs to offer Teheran/Vizcaino, Freeman, Medlen/mid-level prospect of their preference, the other kid we received from NY, and their choice of Cannizares/Melky/Schafer. That's 5 for 1, including 2, maybe 3 top-tier youngsters depending on who they choose. When I think about this as if it were us who had AG, I'd be pretty happy with this deal. There's always some risk in dealing for prospects, though it's been pretty well understood that will be the case when AG is finally dealt. It'd be tough to lose those kids, but the security which Gonzalez would bring to our club should be well worth it. If this could be done, we would have essentially traded Vazquez and Freddie for Adrian Gonzalez, which would equate to what we all were hoping deep down, to be the type of return we'd realize in dealing our ace of '09.

I'm convinced Bay can be had if we want him. I've thought about this a good bit. Jason doesn't want to roam the farm they laid out in Citi Field. He already has an ugly rep when it comes to defense. Can you imagine how much that bad rep would be blown up in that massive outfield with all the NY press watching him in 81 games? Bay can play without pressure in ATL and should provide sufficient enough defense while swinging the stick with plenty of success. He'd be the star of the Braves' lineup without half the pressure he'd receive in almost every other contending team's city. If I'm Jason, the Braves would definitely be on my wishlist. Having said that, with some creative thinking, the Braves could manage fitting Bay's salary into this season's budget. Then his pay could quickly level off in the remaining years agreed upon, in a fair and reasonable way, that could please both parties. This move might result in a strong push to relocate Lowe and his salary, but I believe that will be a main focus next offseason regardless of Bay coming to ATL or not.

The more I think about it, the more confident I become that we'll be bringing one of these three, or another impact guy, home before opening day.

[bmcvay10]

Quick thought:

The Tigers are trying to find a new leadoff man to replace Granderson. If the Tigers had a prospect which would seal a deal for us to land AG, could we trade McClouth for that prospect and more, only to turn around and complete the package to acquire Adrian? Sign Jason Bay and settle for Melky and Schafer battling to be our CF this year? It'd take a small increase in payroll..but could it be done?

[bmcvay10]

In all honesty, I know we won't get Gonzalez. I am a little confused by the Padres lack of greater effort to finally rake in their share via dealing him. I just feel like they are risking what could be viewed as several years worth of starting, impact type talent by allowing Gonzalez to remain in San Diego with no real hope of winning with, or without him.

All that aside, I can't fathom Frank and company being unable to create a method to obtain Bay without being forced to move McClouth. If you moved Melky or Infante alone, we would literally already dumped about half of McClouth's pay check. It wouldn't make enough sense, IMO, to add Bay only to lose Nate..not when a petty 4.5 mill is the difference here. Heck, I wouldn't be surprised to see Chipper take a 2.5 mill deferral or something in order to make it happen.

I don't claim to know anything about Liberty and their willingness or even their concern to make the Braves better. I do know that Bobby is about to supposedly start his last season managing this team, and I would be shocked if several players, coaches, front office execs, and even Bobby himself wouldn't make some accommodating changes in order to give him a nice opportunity to leave the game a champion.

[Agent-X-]

Well...the only reason I feel as if we can afford to move McLouth is because he's not all that important to our success as a team. It's not because he's not a good player, but because he's not the impact bat we need. He's a good leadoff man, but given the corresponding signing of Bay we would have two immediate replacements for his production (Bay, an upgrade) and role as a #1 (Escobar).

It is convenient that we could trade Melky or Infante or Diaz or tell Chipper to take a deferral (union probably wouldn't like it without some benefit to Chipper in the long term), but what it comes down to for me is getting maximum value back for whomever we trade. The long term business aspect of it, if you will. We could certainly trade one of the three mentioned to free up 50% of what is needed to create the wiggle room, but you will not get anything worthwhile for them. Each of them has great value to us in different capacities. Melky's a 4th outfielder who is probably capable of holding his own as a starter at all 3 outfield positions, Diaz is a lefty-mauler (but admittedly, best used in part time duty) and Infante is a jack of all trades but a master of none. Each of them will likely serve a specific role with us in 2010 and potentially beyond and trading them will not net the type of return that would make it worthwhile to get rid of them simply for the salary relief.

McLouth, on the other hand, as you pointed out with your comparison to Mike Cameron, is just an average player. I know that may not have been your point in the comparison, but it was what I've felt since day 1 when we acquired him. McLouth was a nice pickup because he's good and we got him for relatively little...but he was not the guy who would put us over the top, nor will he be that guy in 2009. A full year of him over a struggling rookie striking out almost 40% of the time surely would definitely help. However, we now have a candidate in-house who can put up an average output while playing slightly better defense.

I know you're advocating that we should trade a backup to get the space to add Bay without trading McLouth...but I think if Bay is really in the plans and there has to be a move made to add payroll space, it will come off much like the Vazquez trade did. It'll appear we are dumping McLouth for unproven minor league talent, but the true meaning would be to gain organizational depth in the minors and add to the pot we can throw at free agents.


To sum it up...this is the two lineup options I can envision...



McLouth Escobar
Prado Prado
Chipper Chipper
Glaus Bay
McCann McCann
Dye (or other) Glaus
Escobar Heyward
Diaz (platoon) Melky


People will argue for the one on the left because it's deeper, but the prospect of having decline and risk up and down the lineup doesn't tickle me in the right way. Honest...Melky would probably be a fine 8th hole hitter and we'd benefit from having Bay provide protection to Chipper and to set up McCann, Glaus and Heyward.

It's creative to say to deplete the bench in lieu of the starting roster...but I'm not sure the front office will see it that way. The only your situation of having both McLouth and Bay is for Liberty Media to open up the purse strings just one more time and make room for his salary. It would probably be the best possible outcome...then we can trade McLouth when we're good, ready and sure Schafer (or other) is ready to take over.

What's the cost estimate on Jason Bay? 5 years/$75 million? Yeah, I don't think he's really worth it. I'd be more concerned with having both Bay and Lowe on the same payroll. In the long term, we have to consider resigning Jurrjens, and already Derek Lowe is a major headache in terms of trying to make any free agent acquisitions. Adding Bay at the expense of a nice bargain like McLouth seems counter-productive when money is so tight. The more we tie up in a few players, inevitably the worse the rest of the roster will need to be in terms of pay.

[BigWorm]

I hope you guys are right and there is a chance at acquiring one of these guys. I'm not so sure. I believe that FW will put the necessary quotes out there to show he really tried to get (fill in the blank) but the price was just too high blah blah blah. I can see a mid season trade for prospects if we show that we can compete next year. But IMO what you see is what you get (for the time being).

[JanShan12]

Well...someone's reporting that an announcement on 'Jason Bay to the Mets' is scheduled for....heck, I don't remember what it said, next week or later this week. Sounds fishy that it would be someone I've never heard of reporting it, but we'll see.

I read that a bit ago as well. Wasn't from a reliable source, but who knows. I thought all reports were saying Bay didn't want to play in New York. We'll see, I guess...

[CanadaBravesFan]

Bay to the Muts is being reported all over Twitter and the wire. 4 years/$66 Million

[bravos4evr]

Egads they overpaid! and in that park ..... I guess we will see....

Kinda puts the Braves in the position of taking a one year flyer on a Dye or Damon kinda guy, or using Melky to the cubs to get pieces for another trade..

[luvdembravos]

Well that sucks but at least their pitching rotation is still full of holes.

[Hobbes]

I thought all reports were saying Bay didn't want to play in New York. We'll see, I guess...
Translation: I don't want to play in NY, unless they pay me the most.

[BigWorm]

Further Translation: I don't mind not living up to my contract and being burned daily in the media, just pay me.

[slowride]

Well the Bay rumors can be put to rest. He's signed with the Mets. 4 years 66 million

[RiknTN]

DeRosa to Giants too....

[wordslayer©]

I'm glad both of them are gone. Just the thought of landing DeRosa just sucked the life out of me.