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Andy G.
12-24-2009, 12:53 PM
I've been working on this for a few days. It's incredibly time consuming to put the stats in there like that. There might be a quicker way I don't know about. If anybody has a trick for that, please share. :)

Billy Wagner and Takashi Saito have definite injury concerns. If one or both of them miss a significant amount of time or are ineffective next year, we could be in trouble. However, I feel he best thing about our bullpen is it's depth. The five pitchers that are sure to have a spot in the pen are Wagner, Saito, Peter Moylan, Eric O'Flaherty, and Kris Medlen. We know the first three are really good. O'Flaherty showed his skills as a LOOGY last year, and Medlen had an outstanding second half coming out of the bullpen. We have an impressive group of youngsters competing for the final two spots: Luis Valdez, Jesse Chavez, Mike Dunn, Lee Hyde, Craig Kimbrel and Cory Gearrin. Isn't it nice that Manny Acosta isn't on that list? I'll give a short summary of what each pitcher brings to the table along with some recent stats.

Everyone is encouraged to share any opinions on who is most deserving of a spot in the bullpen, or who is most likely to win those final two positions. The number next to the names is the age that the player will be during the 2010 season. If there's anybody you feel I've left off, bring that to our attention as well.

Luis Valdez - 26
Valdez began his career as a starter in the Pirates organization. In 2007, one season after being converted to a reliever, the Braves signed him as a minor league free agent. He has since developed nicely, and is now considered to be a possible late inning reliever down the road. His fastball is around 93 or 94mph. He has a slider and a changeup that both clock in in the mid 80s.
ERA G SV IP H/9 HR/9 BB/9 SO/9 WHIP
2008 AA 2.76 55 28 65.1 6.6 0.4 5.0 10.6 1.29
2009 AAA 3.28 58 27 71.1 8.3 0.5 2.4 9.5 1.19

Jesse Chavez - 26
Chavez also spent time with the Pirates. In fact, he made 73 appearances for them last year in his rookie season. His stock began to rise back in '08, when he had a breakthrough season for the Pirates' AAA team. The Rays, then the Braves, liked him enough to trade for him this offseason. He throws his fastball at 94mph. His changeup, which he uses, comes in around 84mph and his slider is in the 88mph range.
ERA G SV IP H/9 HR/9 BB/9 SO/9 WHIP
2008 AAA 3.80 51 14 68.2 7.6 1.0 2.9 9.2 1.17
2009 MLB 4.01 73 0 67.1 9.2 1.5 2.9 6.3 1.35

Mike Dunn - 25
Mike Dunn, a lefty, just came to us in the Vazquez trade. You'll notice a trend with these relievers. They throw hard and they strike guys out. Dunn's fastball tops out at 97mph and his slider is in the 90s as well. He was a starter until he began transitioning to the bullpen in '08. The only problem with Dunn is his control, which is pretty bad. If he can shrink the number of walks he gives up, he could be a very good reliever.
ERA G IP H/9 HR/9 BB/9 SO/9 WHIP
2009 AA 3.71 26 53.1 6.9 0.5 5.4 12.8 1.37
AAA 2.25 12 20.0 7.7 0.5 6.3 10.4 1.55

Lee Hyde - 25
Hyde, another lefty, has not been able to stay healthy since being drafted in the fourth round out of Georgia Tech in '06. Hyde's fastball clocks in at 94mph, and he throws a knuckle curve that is said to be pretty nasty. After throwing a total of 10 innings in '08, he pitched at three levels last year and totaled 35.2 innings(3 of them were at rookie ball). He followed that up with an excellent showing in the Arizona Fall League.
ERA G IP H/9 HR/9 BB/9 SO/9 WHIP
2009 A+ 1.21 17 22.1 5.2 0.0 3.6 11.3 0.99
AA 4.35 7 10.1 7.8 0.9 3.5 11.3 1.26
AFL 3.00 13 12.0 5.2 0.8 5.3 9.8 1.17

Craig Kimbrel - 22
Kimbrel has gotten a lot of hype since being drafted in the third round of the '08 draft. Similar to Mike Dunn, he's got excellent stuff but cannot control it. He's supposed to be a closer in the near future. The Braves are just waiting for his control issues to be solved. He struggled in his first full professional season, but he's got great upside. His fastball comes in at 94mph with a lot of tailing and sinking action, and his slider is in the mid 80s.
ERA G SV IP H/9 HR/9 BB/9 SO/9 WHIP
2009 A 0.90 16 10 20.0 4.1 0.0 2.7 17.1 0.75
A+ 5.47 19 2 26.1 6.2 0.7 9.6 15.4 1.75
AA 0.77 12 6 11.2 2.3 0.0 5.4 13.1 0.86
AFL 10.45 11 0 10.1 6.2 0.9 14.3 16.0 2.23

Cory Gearrin - 25
Cory Gearrin is rising at a pretty rapid pace. He was drafted in the fourth round of the '07 draft. He has a sidearm delivery and throws his fastball in the low 90s. Baseball America ranked his slider as the best slider in the Braves' system. His sidearm delivery gets him a lot of sink on his fastball. Much like Peter Moylan, he gets a lot of groundballs and it is hard for hitters to lift the ball out of the park against him. He struggled with command issues in '08, but got rid of that in an extremely impressive '09 season.
ERA G SV IP H/0 HR/9 BB/9 SO/9 WHIP
2008 A 2.82 19 1 22.1 7.7 0.4 6.0 14.5 1.52
A+ 5.32 17 0 23.2 7.2 0.8 8.0 13.7 1.69
2009 A+ 1.84 27 17 29.1 6.8 0.6 0.9 9.8 0.85
AA 2.84 20 2 25.1 6.8 0.7 2.8 7.1 1.07

I know that Hyde, Kimbrel and Gearrin have not pitched at the AAA level yet(at least not more than a few innings), but remember that our bullpen is going to change throughout the season. Injuries and ineffectiveness usually allow some guys who start the year in the minors to get onto the major league team. If Hyde, Kimbrel or Gearrin are lighting it up in AAA, either one of them could be in Atlanta at some point in 2010.

I think Valdez and Chavez have to be the front runners to get the final two spots. I think they'll do that, and we'll have a very good bullpen. One thing I'm not sure of, though, is if the Braves want somebody other than Kris Medlen to be able to take the role of long reliever. I think he's too good of a pitcher to only pitch in blow outs or when a starter leaves the game early. I hope he gets the chance to develop as a one inning guy, IF that's what the Braves intend to use him as in the future.

Gman
12-24-2009, 03:04 PM
Good read Andy. I'm pretty happy with the pen situation. I also think Wren might be very enticed by the price drops that are likely to happen on that huge list of FA relievers. There could be some sub-1mil deals available in late January early Feb on some really good bullpen arms. The list of relievers still available is pretty staggering. Since as you pointed out, Wren is not in a "must fix the pen" situation, he can bide his time and see who falls out. If he has a mil and change left to spend come early February he should get a really good late inning guy.

KB 34
12-25-2009, 01:31 AM
Chavez gets a bullpen spot, no comparing him with morons past. However, it's always fun to remember how nice it was to see them leave town.

http://i200.photobucket.com/albums/aa309/njhancock/Braves/2005-DanKolbKnocksOverTheWaterCoole.jpg

Jeff Bennett to Disabled List After Punching Dugout Door
http://mlb.fanhouse.com/2009/06/25/jeff-bennett-to-dl-after-punching-dugout-door/

"We need guys who are willing to pitch and aren't just waiting for one situation to come up," Jones said. "If it wasn't a save situation, [Wickman] wasn't happy about [pitching]. It's not fair to the team. It's not fair to the manager the way [Wickman] was going about his business."

"Those guys all got the talent, and I think they're young and hungry," Andruw Jones said. "We need guys who want to go out there and pitch. If you don't want to pitch you shouldn't be here."
http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20070824&content_id=2167614&vkey=news_atl&fext=.jsp&c_id=atl

I feel better about the bullpen already.

Gman
12-31-2009, 04:08 PM
With the trade of Vazquez, I wonder if the Braves might not put Medlen in AAA as a starter to have some insurance in case someone goes down for an extended period. I really like Medlen and think he will be an asset regardless of how they use him. But, having him ready to go as a full-time starter would be very valuable in the event of an injury or if they get a sudden surprise offer for Lowe before the trade deadline. Looks like there's enough bp arms and low-cost FA's relievers to make this kind of move feasible.

warefreak
12-31-2009, 07:05 PM
I agree with that statement. Medlin is good enough to be a starter on most teams in baseball. I would love for him to stretch out his arm and for Lowe to pitch lights out again in the 1st half and we trade him before he wakes up again like he did last year with a 7+ ERA in the 2nd half.

KB 34
01-03-2010, 12:49 AM
I envision Medlen starting some games this season. I haven't given much thought into how much time it would take for him to transition from reliever to starter. Sosa did it almost instantly a few years ago. I recall Marquis and Hodges made starts with little notice. Reyes bounced around a little I believe, granted he sucked but that's besides the point. I'd prefer Medlen started in the bullpen so the yong arms get some AA or AAA time and aren't rushed if possible.

Andy G.
01-03-2010, 01:45 AM
I agree with KB. If Medlen went to AAA, that would probably mean that Micheal Dunn and Luis Valdez would both be in the bullpen.

While it's possible that Micheal Dunn will be in Atlanta to start the year whether Medlen is there or not, I just want to say that if starting Medlen in AAA means that Dunn takes his spot in Atlanta, I'd rather not do it. If it were me, I'd put Dunn in AAA to start the year regardless of the fact that he'd provide a second non-closer lefty to the pen and regardless of how well he performs in spring training. I think the best thing for him is to know that his immediate future involves major league action, but to also get the opportunity to fix his control issues in the low pressure atmosphere of minor league baseball.