AA: 2011 Mississippi Braves Discussion

[sdp]

All generalized discussion regarding the M-Braves should go here.

[Andy G.]

So Heyward hasn't slowed down at all with the jump to Mississippi. He's hitting .346(9-26) three doubles and two triples. He's also walked four times and hasn't struck out yet. Freeman's hitting .294(10-34) with three doubles. He's walked twice and struck out twice.

Heyward will be in the futures game today, and I'm starting to get my hopes up that he'll be in the majors sooner than most people are expecting. At this rate, he'll certainly be up sometime next year. I'm thinking he'll get a call up late this season and start next year as our right fielder.

[JanShan12]

He play RF, correct?

If so, it would be nice to see Diaz and Church bridge the gap until he is ready. That platoon won't last for long, but I'm willing to go with it until the kid is ready. From the looks of it, it'll be sooner rather than later.

[Middle Man]

Here's another blurb on Heyward from today's AJC.

Heyward (http://blogs.ajc.com/mark-bradley-blog/2009/07/20/the-top-prospect-baseball-america-says-hes-a-brave/)

"Baseball America, which covers the minor leagues like Willie Mays used to cover center field in the Polo Grounds, has already seen its top four preseason prospects reach the majors and make impacts.....

So now, this being midseason, BA has a new No. 1 prospect, and you’ve heard of him, too. He’s Jason Heyward..."

And then this...

"...“A promotion to Double-A Mississippi made it possible that Heyward could jump to the majors in 2009, just two years after being drafted.”

Last week Buster Olney of ESPN.com’s Insiders raised the same issue: Could Heyward be summoned to Atlanta way ahead of schedule? ..."

This is interesting speculation but I seriously doubt the Braves would consider moving him up this year. Hanson had to wait his turn. So does Heyward - it's only fair. ;)

[Dreamscape]

I meant to bring this up...Baseball America is obviously well regarded for their prospect ranks, but I also like FirstInning. They polled their writers and I think only non-rookies were not included in the prospect ranks (not sure when the ranks were done, only when the final list was presented).

Braves placed three players in their midseason Top 100 (http://firstinning.com/?p=362). Hanson was second, Heyward third, Freeman 41st. But like the Baseball America list, only Heyward hasn't established himself in the majors yet. Compared to the NL East, Hanson and Heyward are 1-2 with Freeman 9th.

I'm hopeful Heyward is kept off the 40 man all year.

[JanShan12]

There's no reason to bring him up this season. We have players who can finish the year out there. I'd rather him finish the season in AA. Begin AAA next season if he's still showing signs of improvement, and bring him up whenever he's ready/needed in 2010 at the earliest.

[Gman]

What's going on with Heyward and Freeman. They're haven't been playing for Mississippi of late and both show up on MLB.com as being on Peoria of the AFL (winter ball). I know they are both heading to the Az Fall League but what about the rest of this season? Are they both hurt?

[Hillbilly]

Heyward has a bruised heel, but I don't think he's disabled. Freeman's problems are similar to what Chipper went through...getting jammed alot and it's lead to hand trouble. He's on the DL. This was all mentioned in DOB's blog comments yesterday I think.

[Hillbilly]

Here's a little more detail (http://www.timesfreepress.com/news/2009/aug/27/braves-score-four-in-eighth-win-7-3/?sports) about it:

Heyward will have his bruised heel evaluated Friday, and any concern by Atlanta officials could result in Chattanooga being the final stop of his sensational season.

"Being that he's going to the Arizona Fall League, I don't think we see any reason to sit him for seven and then play him for the last five, because if he reinjures it, we're back to square one," Mississippi manager Phillip Wellman said. "If the medical staff deems that he's good, then he'll probably be back in there at some point in time, but until then we're going day-to-day. Those who saw him play understand what all the hoopla is about, but his health is more important.

"Not to sound like we don't care, but he's got bigger things on his plate than to help us win a Double-A ballgame right now. In a couple of years, no one will even remember he didn't play in these games."

Heyward said he felt fine as he walked off the field but added, "At this point of the season, there's no need to push or anything like that."




First baseman Freddie Freeman...went on the disabled list Monday with a sore wrist and had the wrist put in a brace Tuesday in Atlanta.

Wellman expects Freeman to sit out these final 10 games to be fresh for his autumn in Arizona.

[Hillbilly]

Cody Johnson has been promoted (http://braves.scout.com/2/893813.html).

Stats at Myrtle Beach:
.243 AVG
32 home runs
84 RBI
.347 OBP
.520 SLG
64 BB
168 Ks

[Flying Spaghetti Monster]

Shane Reynolds part deux.

[Gman]

Heyward was back in action on Tuesday and promptly went 3 for 4 with 2rbi and a SB. If McLouth or Church miss any more time and Heyward gets hot I won't be surprised if he gets called up by this weekend. The Braves offense could use a little booster shot of power. Cox is great at easing a kid like this into spots where he can have a chance to do well. He'll use him to give Anderson and Church a blow against a cupcake or two to see if he can get him off to a hot start. A few weeks of service time is not going to change his Super-2 status if they manage his service time wisely next year.

[Lauren T.]

Cody Johnson participated in BMac's charity softball game on Friday night. Let me tell you guys, that kid is a beast. He wasn't just hitting the (soft)balls for home runs, he was hitting them out of the stadium, over two sets of trees, and across the street into the Greek houses. It was insanely fun to watch. I'm excited to see his progression.

[Dreamscape]

Cody Johnson has a monster hole in his swing. I could see him be a poor man's Russell Branyan (basically, a poor man's poor man's Jack Cust [poor man to the third power's Adam Dunn?]).

Outside of that, I would be surprised to see him amount to much. I'm hopeful some team buys into his power and the Braves can market him this offseason as a true power prospect.

[The Rap]

Or if the Braves could get him to cut down his swing a bit to try to alleviate the hole somewhat.

[The Rap]

Well if you can solve the hole in the swing then your options are that much greater. Either keep him because he's too good to dump or trade him and get more for him.

[The Rap]

Bryce, my friend, no offense but its not like I don't know that already. What is almost impossible is for a hitter to be taught how to hit a curveball. Either you can (even a little) and be taught how to improve or you can't at all. The only player who ever learned was an outfielder who played for the Yanks and Pirates after being the Braves top prospect but failing because he couldnlt hit the curveball; Bill Robinson. He learned somehow in Pittsburgh and became a solid major league hitter after that.

[The Rap]

Allow me to fix somethging. Robinson was the shining star of the Braves minor league system. He was dealt to the Yankees along with another player for Clete Boyer. It was the Yanks who traded him to Pittsburgh where he began to shine. From there I think he retired as a Phillie.

[Andy G.]

Cody Johnson doesn't like for his stat sheet to have a "0" under "HR". He hit a homerun in Mississippi's opener last night. He went 2-4 with a run, 3 RBI and 2 SO.

Mike Minor pitched five innings, allowing six hits and four runs while striking out six.

[Dreamscape]

Missed this last week, but Greg Creek, a corner infielder reserve, was releaded by the Braves. This (http://www.kjonline.com/sports/creek-released-by-atlanta-braves_2010-04-12.html) appears to be his hometown paper's report of that.

[Andy G.]

Mike Minor had a rough night. He pitched four inning with five hit, five runs, three walks and seven strikeouts.

[Dreamscape]

Baseball Prospectus ragged on Cody Johnson in their recent Future Shock. 12 K's in his last four games, 7 for 32 with 20 K's overall. And amazingly, his average may become worse because of a ridiculous BABIP. I was hopeful the Braves could take advantage of his good season in the Carolina League last year and trade him. If he had any value, I don't know. Now, he is in danger of becoming AA fodder.

[Andy G.]

What Johnson has going for him is that he's only 21. So if he struggles all year in AA and has to begin next season down there, improvement in 2011 should restore his value. I don't mean that he'll have a ton of value, but a 22 year old with that kind of power hitting well in AA would be a decent piece in a trade that features another, more talented, prospect. At least, that's what I'm hoping will happen.

Mike Minor made his third start last night. It was his best of the season so far even though he walked five guys in seven innings. He only allowed two hits and he struck out nine. He's got 22 strikeouts in 16 innings now, which is really nice to see, but he's also got ten walks on the season.

[warefreak]

Baseball America just posted an article on our 2009 first round pick.

http://www.baseballamerica.com/blog/prospects/?p=8675

Minor Gets On The Board

Braves lefthander Mike Minor (http://www.baseballamerica.com/statistics/players/cards/?pl_id=69898) has been somewhat up-and-down in his first month of the season with Double-A Mississippi. He tossed seven shutout innings and allowed just two hits on April 19. In his next outing, Minor gave up seven runs in 4 2/3 innings, but they were all unearned thanks to his defense making three errors behind him. He then allowed eight earned runs in 10 innings over is next two starts, but he also struck out 21. Minor had one of his good nights last night in Chattanooga, tossing six scoreless innings to pick up his first professional win as the Braves blanked the Lookouts 5-0, improving to 1-3, 4.17 in 36 2/3 innings. Minor struck out eight, adding to his Southern League-leading total of 54. (He also leads the SL in walks with 21 after handing out three last night.)
Minor faced serious trouble only once, when the Lookouts put runners on the corners with no outs in the fifth. A pick-off followed by a strikeout helped him get out of the jam.
"It feels really good, actually," Minor told the Chattanooga Times Free Press (http://www.timesfreepress.com/news/2010/may/12/minor-blanks-lookouts/). "The last couple of outings I've felt good, but I've had one bad inning and couldn't come out of it. I thought I was going to lose it again in the fifth, but I picked a guy off and struck a guy out and struck another guy out."

[warefreak]

" He was better on Sunday as he struck out 11, walked one and gave up two hits in eight scoreless innings against West Tenn. Minor has now struck out 65 batters in 45 innings and has whiffed more than 10 in three of his last four starts."

Well, I might have to eat crow when it comes to Minor. He's looking better than I thought he would. I think it's definitely time to see what AAA hitters do against him.

[Gman]

" He was better on Sunday as he struck out 11, walked one and gave up two hits in eight scoreless innings against West Tenn. Minor has now struck out 65 batters in 45 innings and has whiffed more than 10 in three of his last four starts."

Well, I might have to eat crow when it comes to Minor. He's looking better than I thought he would. I think it's definitely time to see what AAA hitters do against him.

Not sure when the Braves will deem him ready for the call-up to AAA, but I definitely think you don't know what you have with a lefty until they get to AAA. You see a lot of lefties that put up big K/9 and low WHIP totals up until they hit AAA, then it often can change quite a bit. I would assume it has to do with the fact that the average age and experience of AAA players is much higher than AA. You've got all those AAAA types like Mike Hessman, Shelly Duncan, and Ryan Sheely who have been up and down and all around. They've faced plenty of good lefties in their careers so a young up-and-coming lefty like Minor isn't going to be a novelty to them like Minor is to the 22 and under set. It'll be interesting to see if/how Minor's numbers change once he gets to that level. Regardless, I don't think the Braves will really know what they have with Minor until he spends a half-season in AAA.

[Gman]

What Johnson has going for him is that he's only 21. So if he struggles all year in AA and has to begin next season down there, improvement in 2011 should restore his value. I don't mean that he'll have a ton of value, but a 22 year old with that kind of power hitting well in AA would be a decent piece in a trade that features another, more talented, prospect. At least, that's what I'm hoping will happen.



I agree that it is way to soon to write Johnson off given his age. His strikeout-to-walk ratios obviously need to improve or he's not going to make it anywhere, but it's his struggles against lefties that are really holding down his numbers. In 32 at bats against lefties he's put an abysmal .094/.125/.268 slash line. Against righties he's hit 10 hrs in 110 at bats and has a much more impressive .288/.336/.595 slash. Given that it generally takes lefty hitters longer to develop their skills against left-hand pitching, there's a decent chance for improvement there as he gains more experience against them.

What is fairly certain though is he won't go any farther then AA or AAA striking out 40+% of the time. Right now if he can just get down to a 30% strikeout rate and get his walk rate back up to 15% (he was at 15% last year), he's at least got a chance to eventually be a really good power hitting platoonie in LF. At only 21 yrs old, he's also got a chance to be much more but that'll probably take a major transformation to occur in either his approach and/or his mechanics.

21 year old's don't often have a linear progression line in any discipline. Saying he will always be what he has been discounts the quantum leaps young players make in their development curve. I'd wait him out another 2 years before projecting what kind of force he will be in the majors (if any).

[warefreak]

TEAM CLASS PITCHER IP H R ER BB K ERA ARI AA Collmenter, Josh 7 5 2 2 2 6 0.86 W (3-0)ARI LoA Smith, Eric 6 8 2 0 1 4 2.50 W (5-3)ATL AA Minor, Mike 8 3 0 0 2 11 3.68 Prospect Pitcher of the Day

Pitching 9 innings with 3 hits and 11 strikeouts to be the prospect pitcher of the day

With Arodys, Julio, Minor, and Delgado we are dominating this award.

[Gman]

Cody is currently on a downward spiral of epic proportions. 20K's, 2 singles and 1 walk in his last 34 at bats. Braves must have had TP go down and work with him recently. ;)

[Dreamscape]

Julio Teheran threw 5.2 hitless innings last night, striking out seven and walking three before being removed for Ty'relle Harris, who tossed the next 3.1 innings without allowing a hit for the combined no-hitter. Harris K'd six and walked just one.

[warefreak]

Just heading here to post about that. Baseball America just posted that the best competition for Brave's pitchers is each other.

We've got some sweet talent down there. Best part is... we didn't lose any of it during the trade deadline. Worst part is... we didn't gain the big bat we needed.

[Andy G.]

Teheran made his next start after the combined no-hitter last night. He went six scoreless, allowed three hits, walked one and struck out seven.

[Lauren T.]

Myke Jones got promoted to AA today. His little travelogue on Twitter has been hilarious so far. Love that kid!

[Andy G.]

Brett Oberholtzer, a 21 year old lefty, is off to a great start in AA. In 5 starts he's thrown 30.1 innings allowing 23 hits and 6 walks. His WHIP is 0.96 and his ERA 2.37. He's struck out 28 batters.

J.J. Hoover, 23, has thrown 29.2 innings in 5 games, allowing 25 hits and 7 walks. With a WHIP of 1.92 and an ERA of 1.82, it will be interesting to see how quickly Hoover gets the call to AAA. The Braves have brought him through the system at a very gradual pace, spending essentially a full season at both Rome and Myrtle Beach.

Randall Delgado has made 5 starts as well. He's thrown 25.1 innings, allowing 26 hits and 12 walks. He's struck out 28 batters. His ERA is very low at 2.84, but his WHIP is 1.50, mostly due to the walks. He's 21 this season, and is very talented. While you want to see him start limiting the baserunners, he's not been bad so far.

[Dreamscape]

It's tough for those AA starters to move up when the Gwinnett rotation is so packed. I doubt we will see them get moved unless injury forces it.

[Lauren T.]

Dang it, Myke. (https://twitter.com/RossDellenger/statuses/69158714376069120)