Extreme defensive shifts

[quick]

http://sabr.org/latest/sabr-analytics-conference-research-presentations

Above is a link to a series of presentations. If you scroll down, you will see a powerpoint entitled: John Dewan/Ben Jedlovec, “The Fielding Bible III—An Evaluation of the Ted Williams Shift”.


This powerpoint suggests that overall the shifts work and perhaps should be employed more often when individual player data warrants. Both McCann and Uggla are subjects of the powerpoint and this presentation may account for why they have been shifted on more often than other Braves' hitters.

Interestingly, when this was written (based on stats before this 2012 season), McCann seemed to be beating the shift more often than not. This appears not to be the case this year.

Also, shifting correlates to type of pitch and location, as the powerpoint shows. Do we see pitch-to-pitch shifting, or does that simply give away what pitch and pitch location is coming?

Anyway, take a look. Do you think we are going to see more extreme defensive shifting? Will this defensive shifting force hitters to learn to use all fields to "defeat" the shift (and change their individual data that prompted the shift in the first place?). Will the bunt-for-a-hit become very vogue?

[bravos4evr]

I think that if the shifting gets too extreme , the league will set position rules for the infield and eliminate it. People want to see offense and will tune out if every game is 2-1.

Think of it like the tightening of the leeway for defensive backs.

[-Dr. Brave-]

I think that if the shifting gets too extreme , the league will set position rules for the infield and eliminate it. People want to see offense and will tune out if every game is 2-1.

Think of it like the tightening of the leeway for defensive backs.

MLB won't do anything about the shifts. It's part of the strategy of the game. Hitters just need to adjust and stop trying to pull everything.

It may even force more hitters to learn how to bunt.

[bravos4evr]

I think if it gets extreme they would. If it got so bad it was hurting the game they would.


I myself think that shifts are technically illegal already as the positioning of infielders is described in the rule book.

[The Rap]

I used to watch Ted Willams go up against a severe right side shift almost every game and he was the greatest hitter of all time so everybody knew al he to do is go the opposite way for an easy hit. But Ted had pride and a talent that probably exceeded that so he would attack it every time and hit about .350 with power and RBIs corresponding to that.

[BFH]

I myself think that shifts are technically illegal already as the positioning of infielders is described in the rule book.

I remember seeing that part of the rule book stating where the positions are defined....but I don't recall a penalty for playing 'out of position'.

If there's no penalty....technically, it's not illegal. Not trying to pick a fight over it, but unless teams are going to be penalized for shifting it's as legal as the fake to third, throw to first pickoff move that works all but once every 1000 attempts.

[BFH]

MLB won't do anything about the shifts. It's part of the strategy of the game. Hitters just need to adjust and stop trying to pull everything.

It may even force more hitters to learn how to bunt.I agree that MLB probably won't do a damn thing about the shifts. I'm also for shifting when necessary and the statistics support doing so.

I also somewhat agree that some hitters will learn to bunt to counteract the shifts. Then again....with such extreme shifts, it's not all that hard to beat them.

I recall actually being on both ends of an extreme shift (or unique defensive arrangement in one case)--one worked, the other didn't. The one that didn't work was used against me when I was peppering balls down the right field line for doubles and triples. Team started putting their centerfielder in right center, their right fielder on the line and their shortstop behind the bag at second and the third baseman at shortstop and the left fielder in left-center. My solution was to just force myself to get the bat head out around the slider-diet they were feeding me and ground one lazily down the left field line inside the bag for a double. It stopped the shifting pretty quickly. Then again...I'd argue it was stupid for that coach to tell his team to shift against a 12-year old with no history of being a slap-hitter outside of a 3 game stretch. Anyway.....

It's just a matter of adjustment, as you said...and it doesn't even require bunting, really. If they're overshifting a lefty to pull, for example....they're most likely going to be throwing him something to pull. No sense peppering the lower outside corner. It's not hard for a guy to let the pitcher start his windup, shimmy back a few inches away from the plate and slap a stiff grounder down the third base line for a double.

[Middle Man]

... It's not hard for a guy to let the pitcher start his windup, shimmy back a few inches away from the plate and slap a stiff grounder down the third base line for a double.

I agree, it shouldn't be that difficult for a major league caliber player to make adjustments, but most seem pretty pig-headed about it. I think shifts are going to become more common as teams start relying more on statistical analysis and such, and I think you'll see more pressure on hitters to adjust. Adjust or die.

[BFH]

Adjust or die.

Very Beane of you.