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View Full Version : Will the Braves make the playoffs?


Andy G.
08-08-2010, 03:28 AM
How do you think the Braves will finish in the standings? Before voting (if you didn't already), here's just a few things to consider.

As of this moment, the Braves are a half game behind the Padres for the best record in the National League. We have a two game lead over the Phillies in the East, and we are a half a game better than the current Wild Card Leader. That team happens to be San Francisco. We will finish our four game series with them today. This could turn out to be a big game if we were to lose our lead to the Phillies. The Reds lead the Central. They have the same record as the Wild Card leading Giants, and the Cardinals are a game and half behind them.

The Braves have evolved over the course of the past few months. From being one of the worst teams in baseball, then posting the best record for a stretch spanning about two months of the season, and now they are a team with a somewhat new identity.

The pitching staff has finally become what we envisioned it being at the beginning of the year. Much has been made about Tommy Hanson's sophomore slump, but this guy is doing his best to end that talk all together.

Hanson has allowed more than two earned runs just once in his past seven starts, and that was when he surrendered three earned runs to the Brewers on July 16th. Actually, in seventeen of the twenty-three starts he's made this year, he has given up two earned runs or less. His ERA for the season is 3.69, down from his season-high 4.50 at the end of June. His WHIP is good at 1.28. He's striking batters out at an excellent rate (his K/9 is 8.73), and his FIP is very good at 3.13 (this is "Fielding Independent Pitching", an interesting statistic that gives a number that represents what his ERA should look like based only on the things that the pitcher can control, essentially taking defense and luck out of the equation).

Hanson has two starts this year where he threw a total of five innings and allowed 17 earned runs. I don't have to show you what his stats would look like without those starts for you to know this averages on the season are drastically skewed by those outings. For the most part, Hanson has been really good this year, and the results have been excellent as of late.

As for the rotation as a whole, we are very fortunate to have a top three as talented as Hudson, Jurrjens, Hanson. Not that I'm crying over lack of respect, but this is the most underrated trio of starting pitchers in major league baseball in my opinion. With a healthy Jurrjens and a more consistent Hanson, the Braves' Starters ERA has improved to 3.75, which is fourth in the National League. The pitching staff as a whole ranks fourth in ERA as well. The bullpen, which has been the biggest key to our success alongside the improved plate discipline by our hitters, has a 3.10 ERA, which is second in the NL.

Our offense, which is obviously not on par with our pitching staff, rank seventh in the National League in runs scored. Though we are tied for first in the league with a .341 OBP, we are tenth in SLG at .399.

I would, however, like to direct your attention to our most accomplished hitter. Chipper Jones, despite my predictions that he would post a .900 OPS on the season, has been little more than a solid contributor with the bat this year. He hasn't been a cornerstone type hitter, but he has done his part, though his responsibility is obviously to do more than that.

With that said, in twenty-one games since the All Star Break, Chipper has posted an OPS of .890. He has three homeruns and two doubles in his past six games. His batting average since the break is .290.

The other guy that is finally hitting like we all know he is capable of hitting is Brian McCann. In July, McCann posted a .942 OPS. Since the All Star break, his OPS is .940. He's hit five homeruns since the All Star break.

As we come down the stretch, trying to nail down a playoff spot whether it be as Division Champions or Wild Card Winners, we will probably need these two guys to continue their recent success. Troy Glaus might catch fire again, just as he did in May, but then again he might not. The good thing is that our pitching staff, which has become stronger with the addition of Kyle Farnsworth and will get another boost when Eric O'Flaherty is recovered, will keep us in the game and give our offense a chance to win it.

The better thing is that we are in first place. We don't need any help, as of right now, to get that playoff spot. The Braves have the depth in the lineup and the pitching staff to continue winning. I personally believe that the recent slump that we've endured is just that, a slump. I like the way our team is put together, and I believe we have enough talent to stand up against the Phillies as they attempt to take over first place down the stretch.

Wahoo
08-08-2010, 10:31 AM
This probably isn't going to surprise many folks but I voted that I think we will miss the playoffs. It this were any other year I think we would have a much greater chance to make the playoffs but we are one of 6 team in the NL with 60+ wins. That's just absurd. That means that there will be two really good teams that will still be going home at the end of the year. The Padres really made some nice moves at the break. The giants have what I think is the most dominant starting rotation. Our depth is second to none. The cardinals are probably the most well- rounded squad and the Reds have been pretty hot all year.

Ultimately our offense is what will cost us a chance at the playoffs. It doesn't matter how many guys get on base if we don't have anyone that can consistently drive them in. Unless Heyward magically finds his power stroke I think we will fall just short of the playoffs.

bravos4evr
08-08-2010, 12:53 PM
We will make it, if the poll gave me an option of either/or I woulda voted that way, cuz I'm not 100% either way.... (wild card or division champ) I think we have too much pen depth, quality starting pitching and OBP to not make it .... Plus, this horrible string of not hitting with guys in scoring position can't last forever!!!

HomerTheBrave
08-08-2010, 01:16 PM
I voted wild card, I think they at the very least will get that.....we have to take into consideration:
a)as of today the phils picked up 5 games in a little over a week....without Howard,Utley or Victorino.
b)we play them 6 out the last (10 games?) including last 3 of the season, it'll go down to who's got the momentum at that time..

like bfh said, it's gonna take a difference maker to take us there and beyond....

ok Braves, who's up for it??

Lauren T.
08-08-2010, 02:44 PM
I'm sticking with my pre-season prediction: wild card. Don't get me wrong, I'm really excited we're in first place right now and all, but I think it's going down to the wire and I've learned not to have high expectations. :)

007
08-08-2010, 03:06 PM
I'm greedy. I voted for Division Champs.

Andy G.
08-08-2010, 06:30 PM
This probably isn't going to surprise many folks but I voted that I think we will miss the playoffs. It this were any other year I think we would have a much greater chance to make the playoffs but we are one of 6 team in the NL with 60+ wins. That's just absurd. That means that there will be two really good teams that will still be going home at the end of the year. The Padres really made some nice moves at the break. The giants have what I think is the most dominant starting rotation. Our depth is second to none. The cardinals are probably the most well- rounded squad and the Reds have been pretty hot all year.

Ultimately our offense is what will cost us a chance at the playoffs. It doesn't matter how many guys get on base if we don't have anyone that can consistently drive them in. Unless Heyward magically finds his power stroke I think we will fall just short of the playoffs.
You make a really good point. There are more playoff worthy teams in the NL than there are playoff spots to be had. We have an advantage in that there is not a second place team with a better record than us, as is sometimes the case, which means that if the Phillies go on a crazy run and take over first place, as long as we're still winning we should have a good shot at making the playoffs via the wild card. Then again, all of these teams are very close in the standings. There is plenty of time left for anybody to fall behind in the race.

Braves N Canes
08-09-2010, 01:27 AM
I'm with Barvos thinking that our pitching and OBP are enough to get us there...just not sure how we'll get there. People may laugh or disagree with this. But when we get to the playoffs, I think that our difference maker is Bobby Cox. I think our guys will rally together knowing it's his last year. And he always seems to push the right buttons at the right time. And of course it helps that we'll be in the game because of our pitching. When it comes down to it, the greatest baseball strategy is to have our guy on the bump be better than theirs.

BTW great writeup here Andy.

KB 34
08-09-2010, 02:11 AM
I'm giving my pessimism titles to Wahoo and voting the Wild Card. The way I see it the Braves have spent most of the season overachieving and winning when they have no business winning. Last night I was thinking about players who have overachieved this season. I'd have to say Venters, Wagner, Prado, Glaus, Saito, Heyward, Hudson, Infante, Hinske, Ross, and Medlen. Underachievers obviously includes McLouth and Escobar. I would probably include Diaz, but injuries make it a bit questionable. Kawakami has slightly underachieved but I don't think he was that bad beyond his record, which he couldn't control too much. The point remains that a lot of Braves players have overachieved.

The Braves took a huge blow when Jurrjens went down early in the season, but Medlen pitched well and the Braves were fine. When it looked like the Braves offense belonged at AAA Hinske of all people came through and helped out until Glaus caught fire. Heyward was injured for a while, but Blanco came through and contributed. The team didn't miss a beat with the Escobar drama working itself out either.

Given the stuff I've written above and my belief that Bobby's management has been the best since 2004 I don't see why this team won't continue finding ways to win. The only problem is the Phillies were 7 games by July 22 and are only 2 games back. I think the Phillies will play well enough to win the division. However, I do think the Braves will find a way to win over the other Wildcard competitors. As long as the Braves get into the playoffs I really don't care how since in the playoffs anything could happen. I like a potential 3 man rotation of Hudson, Jurrjens, and Hanson (with Lowe on Mars where Bobby can't even think about using him). It could be an exciting fall.

Andy G.
08-09-2010, 02:35 AM
One thing I think people should consider about the ground the Phillies have made up in the past couple of weeks is that when they were seven games back on July 22, they had just finished a seven game losing streak.

Since then they've gone 14-3 while the Braves have gone 9-8. It looks like one of those things that is bound to happen in a 162 game schedule. Just things evening out a little, if you would. We've won five of our last seven, though. So it hopefully the ship has been righted, but I have to admit my confidence has been somewhat shaken.

It's possible they could go on an excellent run with guys coming back from injuries, but I don't think we'll continue playing .500 ball or that the Phillies will win 82% of their games for the rest of the season. Just something to keep in mind.

bravos4evr
08-09-2010, 03:54 AM
I just did a little late night cuz I can't sleep research and came up with a fun little logarithm that means nothing! (however it does "prove" that the Braves will win the division! )

Records:
Braves- 64-47
Phils- 62-49

Both teams have 51 games remaining The Braves have 27 home games left while the Phils have 29 home games remaining... so a push there. Let us assume that both teams continue to win home games at their present rate . Braves are 39-15 which is .722 and the Phils are 34-18 which is .654 you plug in the remaining games and you end up with.

Braves remaining home record- 19-8
Phils-19-10

Then i decided to take a look at their remaining road games and see the quality of those teams as they compare to each other.

Braves @ - Hou, CHC,Col,FLM,PIT,NYM,PHI, WAS,
Phils @-NYM,SD,LAD,(one game at COL) NYM,FLM,Was,ATL


so we share one trip to FL, NYM,and WAS. The Braves other games are against all sub .500 teams except 4 with colorado. The phils have to play an extra road series against the mets AND SD,LAD and that one game with Col. For this reason, I am lowering their road record versus their win % to date by 2 games.

Braves - remaining road record est. 11-13
Phils- 9-13

so lets put those together with win record estimates above and we get the following:

Braves: 30-21
Phillies: 28-23

for a Grand total of

Braves 94-68
Phillies 90-72

oh so close poor phillies! :-)

quick
08-09-2010, 10:40 AM
The way we played against SF, a very hot playoff contender with great pitching, was encouraging. I voted we'll win the division.

As all of you know, we play the Phils 6 times in the last 2 weeks of the season. If either team is still within a couple of games of the other, it is a toss-up. I don't see either team running away with this, so it comes down, IMHO, to this head-to-head performance. Frankly, that is as it should be.

Also, they have lots of injuries, but we do, too. How well Prado comes back is key for us, and resting Glaus a bit so his knees feel better and he can regain his groove is also important (the last few games have been encouraing). Then, how well Howard and Utley come back is key for them. Utley will be on the DL so long, he may have a tough time regaining his groove--one can only hope. If Howard's ankle sprain remains tender, it may affect his stride (and stroke), as well as his ability to run on the bases and in the field. In short, a lot will depend on the effectiveness of some of these players when they come back. The injury bug is a real wild-card.

Either way, I think we can win it, barring further injury. The Phils are burning lots of energy chasing, and sometimes when you claw your way into a tie, you wilt and relax. And, a lot will gravitate around those 6 games--if we cannot beat them head-to-head, we don't deserve to go, anyway.

bravos4evr
08-09-2010, 01:12 PM
What we need is a 3 game lead going into the final 9 games of the season. That way we can go 4-5 and force them to go 7-2 just to tie!

quick
08-10-2010, 05:15 PM
A caveat: If we play another game as careless and sloppy as the Bravos did in the first outing against the miserable 'Stros, the Bravos won't win diddly....That game was embarrassing.