Last start for KK as a Brave?

[MississippiBrave91]

Me thinks this has to be Kawakami's last start as a Brave. Bobby obviously had him on a short leash out there against the Royals today and as lights out as Medlen has been there is just no reason to keep him in the rotation. As soon as JJ is cleared to play I think (and hope) KK is designated for assignment. Lord knows I've tried to stay behind him but it isn't just that Kawakami doesn't get it done on the mound because he has had several respectable outings but enough is enough. What are you guys' thoughts?

[KB 34]

Kawakami makes $6.67 million this season and $6.67 million next season. That kind of financial commitment tells me he won't be designated for assignment unless things really go badly for him, which they really haven't. Kawakami has pitched like a #5 starting pitcher this season. A #5 typically eats some innings and doesn't get blown out, which Kawakami has done pretty much all season.

The Braves are in a nice position where they really have six legitimate starting pitchers in the organization. For a while I have been an advocate for keeping Kawakami in the rotation when Jurrjens comes back since Kawakami consistently pitched around 6 innings and Medlen would be a huge addition to the bullpen. However, in his last 4 starts Kawakami has only really pitched well once. At this point I'd probably send Kawakami to the bullpen and have him pitch long relief, ideally 3-4 inning stints where his training keeps him ready to jump back in the rotation if necessary.

My opinion is Kawakami has really gotten a bad rap because of his lack of run support and record. He does have 6 quality starts on the season, two of which where he gave up zero runs over 6 innings of work. In his 6 quality starts he's 0-3. That means in his 6 quality starts he couldn't lose twice by default, but lost 3 of 4 quality starts where it was possible for him to lose. That's simply terrible luck. In comparison Derek Lowe has 7 quality starts on the season and is 5-1 with one no decision in those starts.


Welcome to the site as well.

[wordslayer©]

I've never even liked the guy and I don't think he is as bad as some of you do. If you liked him last year, you should like him this year.

[bravos4evr]

I just don't know what to make of Kawakami..... Some days he looks like Roy Halladay and some days he looks like Len Barker..... His stuff doesn't seem to change much ...neither does his location really, it's like some teams scout him better and he doesn't make adjustments well or something......

I think he has pitched well enough to be close to .500 but he's gotten screwed. But he's also pitched poorly enough sometimes to be in AAA..... but he makes a bundle so there goes that.... Medlen is showing that he can pitch more innings than KK ....and IMO can only improve his value (whereas I don't think KK has much value either way with that salary). i dig what your cooking about not burning our silk bridge to the orient and all too.... It's a tough GM situation to be in, while at the same time a good one because most guys wouldn't have an option worth a diddley poo to even be debating!

oh welcome mississippi braves fan guy ! Where at in the great state are you from? ( I live in Ocean Springs on the coast)

[wordslayer©]

Yeah...I think there in lies the problem, slayer. A lot of people, like you, have never liked the guy. lol

My thing is, it hasn't been that long ago since we were starting people like Redman. This guy is light years ahead of pitchers like that. And there are lots of teams out there that have those Redman types of pitchers on them.

He has value. I would think, even the dumbest GM's out there, would like to get their hands on him, because he is a decent pitcher. He's basically the same pitcher as he was last year.

I don't think he will be traded for the reasons you have already mentioned, but I guess I just don't understand why people dislike him as much as they do.

[MississippiBrave91]

Thanks for the welcome, guys. However it turns out, Medlen is sure going to be hard to take out of the rotation the way he's been pitching since that first spot start he made and I know moving Kawakami to the pen would also be a touchy decision. Anyhoo its getting late and if this is one of the few problems the team faces going into July, we're in a pretty good spot. Look forward to talking more baseball with you guys (hopefully into October)!

[Andy G.]

Welcome again to Chopnation, Mississippi.

I'm with slayer though. Kawakami just gets the raw end of the stick. It's unfair really. At the same time, however, I don't agree with some of the things people say about why the Braves have to keep Kawakami in the rotation, or even on the team for that matter.

First of all, his production over the course of the 2010 season so far has been good enough to put him in nearly every rotation in baseball. It's just like slayer said, there are teams throwing guys like Redmond out there every fifth day, and Kawakami is our worst pitcher. That means our rotation is pretty stinking good. He looks worse than he is because we have such talent in our rotation.

Also, if you look at his past six starts coming into Sunday's start against the Royals, he's actually pitched pretty well. In those six starts he put up a 3.00 ERA, a 1.36 WHIP and 6.75 K/9.

I'm with slayer. I just don't see how Braves fans can be so hard on the guy, unless they're allowing their vision to be clouded by the fact that we do have such good starting pitching.

I don't know who's going to the bullpen when Jurrjens comes back. Before, I thought it was a no-brainer that it would be Medlen. With Medlen pitching as well as he is, I don't see what the big deal is with putting Kawakami in the bullpen. Some people point to his salary and say that he makes too much money to be coming out of the bullpen, but the Braves put him in the bullpen last year when Huddy came back. It's not the same situation, of course, but the fact is that Kawakami is already signed to his contract. It doesn't make a difference what role he has on the team. He's going to make a certain amount of money. You might as well do what's best for the team right now, and what's best for the team is probably to keep Medlen in the rotation.

Also, can we be so sure that trading Kawakami would hurt out chances of signing Japanese players in the future? It's pretty obvious that we have a surplus of starting pitchers right now. We'll have an even greater surplus when Mike Minor and Julio Teheran are ready to make the jump to the majors. Both pitchers could be at that point before Kawakami's deal is up. Were he to be traded next offseason, or even during this season, it shouldn't be hard for the Braves to save face. Free agents want as many bidders as possible. Agents are going to believe the Braves when they tell them, in this hypothetical situation, that trading Kawakami was not something they ever expected to do, but it was a result of the tremendous progress shown by our young pitchers after the signing had already taken place. There's no fault in that.

All that said, I still don't think he'll be taken out of the rotation. He's not hurting us as much as people like to claim he is, and Medlen is a much better option as a set-up man than Kawakami. If they want to keep Medlen in the rotation, because they think that's our best chance at winning, then we'll probably see Medlen go the bullpen for now but move back to the rotation later because Kawakami will have been traded to another team.

[Abaddon]

3 weeks ago I was all for sending Medlen back to the bullpen because it would make the team better. KK definitely gets the short end of the stick as he has been pitching well the last month, he just hasn't had any luck.

However, I think Medlen in the rotation makes the team better now. His last 4-5 starts he has been attacking the strike zone with a lot of confidence and success. This has led to very efficient pitch counts and he has been working deep into games. Even the game against AZ where he only went 5 he had only thrown 66 pitches. He has still yet to break 100 in any game and has worked into the 8th twice(against very good teams).

I think it's to the point now where Bobby will let him start going past 100. That, combined with how efficient he's been lately will cause him to be too valuable go back to the 'pen.

Let's not forget that KK was still pretty good out of the bullpen last year. He had a 2.63 ERA in 13.2 innings. It also may help him to be able to concentrate on just 2 pitches and gain some consistency and more confidence.

[Andy G.]

I see your point completely, BFH. I guess I was a little "tunnel Visioned". You're absolutely right that Japanese players look for teams that they know will make them comfortable. The good part is that he's not as bad as some Braves fans make him out to be. He's actually a useful starter, and if the Braves keep him in that role, we get to see Medlen in a set-up role. Not bad at all.

[IkeWagner]

It's too bad that many people (no doubt) judge Kawakami's performance based on his record (I note that I haven't seen anyone here do so explicitly--though I haven't read every post on the topic). Though it is readily acknowledged by most that it's not his fault that he's 0-9 (suggesting that most notice at least some difference between record and actual performance), I think that vague ideas about the importance of individual record still seep in to cloud people's assessments of his actual performance, even if that influence is not explicitly acknowledged. For instance, if KK were 5-4, I doubt that this thread would be nearly as active as it is, if it were even created in the first place.

I wouldn't be surprised if disregard for individual W-L has already taken hold in some important quarters: I bet that in front office meetings about pitching talent on the free agent market, or about pitching talent in an upcoming draft, there is practically no discussion of individual record. And with Lincecum winning the Cy Young last year, it seems the message that there are far better ways to judge talent than individual record is starting to get out there. But clearly, the message is not "out there" enough. Last night Tim Kurkjin, whom I greatly respect as a baseball mind, praised Billy Wagner for his 5-0 record. Nothing about ERA, or strikeouts--just his record, which has very little to do with his actual performance. I suspect Tim knows this, but I would guess that he, as someone on national TV, has to pander to the general attitude that individual W-L is still something worth taking seriously as a way to assess performance.

I know I have gone on this exact rant many times before, and that many astute fans (e.g., most people on this site) find my complaints obviously right, but sometimes I cannot help but rant again. The popular attitude toward individual record has got to be one of the most irrational ones in baseball culture today.

[Gman]

I know I have gone on this exact rant many times before, and that many astute fans (e.g., most people on this site) find my complaints obviously right, but sometimes I cannot help but rant again. The popular attitude toward individual record has got to be one of the most irrational ones in baseball culture today.

It may be irrational but I will flat out guarantee you that 0-9 record is affecting Kawakami and that's all that really matters. I'm also sure it's not making him feel confident to have a 4.78 era and a 1.46 whip. Even if he doesn't look at those stats, he's affected by the experience of giving up that many runs and that many base runners. Some of you might think those are perfectly good contributions from a 5th starter but I'm sure he doesn't and it's affecting his ability to pitch with confidence. The fact that he spit-the-bit as soon as he got a 4 run lead last night against a below-average offense is pretty good sign of that. Even a bunch of the outs were rockets last night.

I think Kenshin has gotten to the point of being extremely frustrated by his failures. I think he's really pressing and I think he's pitching scared. That's no way to pitch in the majors. The Braves need to give him a chance to completely turn the page on this. If they want to keep him then put him in the pen and give him a chance to make some good contributions so he can regain some of his lost mojo. Option two is to trade him to an AL team where he can start with a clean slate. I feel for the guy but the fact is he is being out-pitched by Medlen. The Braves are in first place so their first priority has to be to put the best starters in the rotation.

As for those who think taking him out of the rotation or trading him would burn the oriental bridge, I don't buy it. Kenshin is 7-21 since his arrival and getting hit pretty hard this year (by any metric). If taking him out of the rotation (or trading him) is considered poor treatment by some Japanese players then they should go play for the Pirates or Royals.

All that being said, I'd love to see him turn it around as a starter. I just don't think he can do it right now.

[quick]

It may be irrational but I will flat out guarantee you that 0-9 record is affecting Kawakami and that's all that really matters. I'm also sure it's not making him feel confident to have a 4.78 era and a 1.46 whip. Even if he doesn't look at those stats, he's affected by the experience of giving up that many runs and that many base runners. Some of you might think those are perfectly good contributions from a 5th starter but I'm sure he doesn't and it's affecting his ability to pitch with confidence. The fact that he spit-the-bit as soon as he got a 4 run lead last night against a below-average offense is pretty good sign of that. Even a bunch of the outs were rockets last night.

I think Kenshin has gotten to the point of being extremely frustrated by his failures. I think he's really pressing and I think he's pitching scared. That's no way to pitch in the majors. The Braves need to give him a chance to completely turn the page on this. If they want to keep him then put him in the pen and give him a chance to make some good contributions so he can regain some of his lost mojo. Option two is to trade him to an AL team where he can start with a clean slate. I feel for the guy but the fact is he is being out-pitched by Medlen. The Braves are in first place so their first priority has to be to put the best starters in the rotation.

As for those who think taking him out of the rotation or trading him would burn the oriental bridge, I don't buy it. Kenshin is 7-21 since his arrival and getting hit pretty hard this year (by any metric). If taking him out of the rotation (or trading him) is considered poor treatment by some Japanese players then they should go play for the Pirates or Royals.

All that being said, I'd love to see him turn it around as a starter. I just don't think he can do it right now.

Actually, I think the KC offense is pretty good. Don't they have the second best BA in the Am League? I thought their downfall was poor pitching, esp after their 1 and 2 starters. KC was certainly scoring some runs against the Barves--they just couldn't stop the Barves' offense.

I suspect KK is trying to be too fine with all of the losses weighing on him. He has pitched well enough to win. I also suspect his still using the interpreter all the time doesnt' sit well, either. Probably the guys expected his English to be a bit better by now (if he's like most Japanese, he took many years of English in school). He doesn't seem to have bonded very well with the team, somehow.

Even so, last year he rose to the occasion when he pitched against great opposing pitchers. He can still be a fine pitcher, but with the emergence of Meds, you have to move KK to the pen. However, if JJ doesn't come back strong as expected, or if there are injuries, it will be nice to have KK around down the stretch....

[warefreak]

Last night Tim Kurkjin, whom I greatly respect as a baseball mind, praised Billy Wagner for his 5-0 record. Nothing about ERA, or strikeouts--just his record, which has very little to do with his actual performance.

You know what record I want my closer to have?

0-0

Sometimes closers give up a lead and the game is tied, but then the offense scores one more run in the bottom of the 9th to give the closer an undeserved win.

Seriously, for anybody to even be talking about a closer's record is ludicrous. Saves, blown saves, ERA, K/9, BB, WHIP, etc... that's all I really want to know.

[Wahoo]

Ya know...we really are fortunate, all things considered. Between Derek Lowe and Konami, they've made 29 starts between them and collectively have given up at least 4 runs in a total of 13 of those starts (not all earned runs), which means that it's virtually a toss of a coin each turn through the rotation that our offense will have to score at least 5 runs even to win one of their starts. Pretty crazy.

I think the most frustrating thing is watching Konami pitch. It's a combination of his bad luck and pretty average stuff that makes it difficult to bear, but when you think about it...how many of these Japanese imports have wound up being front of the rotation starters? I think Konami is probably a victim of expectations (which comes partially with the salary he's earning). He's a helluva 5th starter, but the problem is people really didn't envision him as such when he came here and he's really getting paid more than 5th starter should, so that's a tough pill to swallow for a lot of folks.

[Andy G.]

For what it's worth, Kawakami sounds like he's expecting to be put in the bullpen, and he doesn't seem to be bitter about it. He said, through his translator, that he's not doing his job as a starter and that he is ready for whatever is coming to him. I don't have a link because I just saw it on the local news.

[Dreamscape]

Kawakami is no Hideki Irabu. You can tell he is doing everything he can to get past these current problems and is willing to do whatever is asked of him. I support keeping him in the staff, but the way he is pitching combined with how Medlen is truly in position to win every time out seems to put Kawakami on the path to the bullpen.

Well, he's better than Jesse Chavez..

[Wahoo]

I don't think it's that at all. At under $7M...he is being paid no more than other free agent back of the rotation types. I think Marquis got similar recently before succumbing to an injury. I know for a fact Carlos Silva got more, despite his recent success in Chicago. Even Oliver Perez got his pay day that trumped Kawakami's $6.667M salary. He's being paid like a back of the rotation type...and he's pitched exactly how he was probably projected to pitch in that role. He's been steady aside from a couple implosions and it just comes down to the Braves just managing to find ways to not hit when he's on the mound.

Perhaps he's being paid more than your typical 5th starter...but one also has to keep in mind that he's been much much better than your typical 5th starter.


Well, perhaps initial expectations were out line coming over here. Perhaps people need to be more reasonable as to the potential of the Japanese starters. I've yet to see any to really blow me away yet. And, for what it's worth, I think Konami should remain in the rotation.

[Freddy_Ballgame]

I believe many are overlooking a key consideration with the concerns of losing the Japanese connection. Japanese baseball is a very strong fundamental team game, and I stress team. KK being brought up in Japanese ball knows that the team comes first, as was indicated in an earlier post. I believe that to be the predominant feeling amongst the Japanese ballplayers and their managers. Anyone assessing the Braves starters would probably conclude that Medlen is performing better at present than KK and that KK would stand to be the odd man out when JJ returns, if JJ returns to the starting rotation. KK's problems wouldn't be considered an insult by Braves management as much as it would be recognized as doing what's best for the team. A stint in the pen may allow KK to regain his confidence, as well as improve his value to the team. This is how I view it.
If making normal baseball moves offends other nationalities to the point of losing out on middle-of-the-pack players, the Braves can probably work around it. I personally don't see it causing that much concern with traditional baseball men, regardless of nationality.

[luvdembravos]

Freddy, I agree. There's no reason to be PC with KK.

[IkeWagner]

It may be irrational but I will flat out guarantee you that 0-9 record is affecting Kawakami and that's all that really matters.

I don't disagree. I just wanted to highlight (once again) that annoyingly irrational attitude in baseball generally, and as applied to Kawakami in particular. It was somewhat of a digression really. What I said didn't come down at all on the central issue of whether Kawakami's actual performance (which, as you say, may be largely affected by his current psychological state) warrants keeping him the rotation. I agree with the points you make about that.

[IkeWagner]

You know what record I want my closer to have?

0-0

Sometimes closers give up a lead and the game is tied, but then the offense scores one more run in the bottom of the 9th to give the closer an undeserved win.

Seriously, for anybody to even be talking about a closer's record is ludicrous. Saves, blown saves, ERA, K/9, BB, WHIP, etc... that's all I really want to know.

Maybe I was partly wrong; at least losses would not seem to be irrelevant: if a closer has a bunch of loses, that would seem to reliably indicate something negative about his performance (you have to give up runs to get losses); but wins by themselves for a closer do seem irrelevant (they could result either from a scoreless inning in a tie game, or, as you say, blowing a lead and then getting lucky; wins alone don't tell you which). So "L's" can be indicative while "W's" seem irrelevant. But at any rate, there are enough superior statistics that we shouldn't pay attention to the L's in any case.

[Freddy_Ballgame]

I like the 0-0 record too, if all the guy ever does is come in in closing situations. Cox is a big fan of running his closers out there when a game's tied in the ninth at home. In so doing, a closer has a good chance to pick up wins. I don't know how many Wags has picked up like that this year, but it's a consideration. I'm not a big fan of it because too many closers are shells of themselves if they aren't going for saves. Cox has done it for years...

[Lauren T.]

Story on AJC.com: Kawakami: 'I didn't come over here to be a reliever' (http://www.ajc.com/sports/atlanta-braves/kawakami-i-didnt-come-584964.html)

I find it kinda sad that no one's updated him in a month. A month.

[luvdembravos]

Does he really need an "update"? It's pretty obvious the 5 guys in front of him have been more effective.

Best thing for KK and the Braves is to part ways but who wants to pay $7M?

[Hobbes]

Perhaps he doesn't need an update, but it's still pretty crappy that the team hasn't spoken with him. Frankly, I don't know why they haven't used him more from the pen anyway. He could at least buy some days of rest for the rest of the guys.

[007]

I would think that Cox is pretty approachable. Why not just ask the skip? Probably because in his heart he knows why he's basically been on the shelf.

Can we get a refund?

[-Dr. Brave-]

Story on AJC.com: Kawakami: 'I didn't come over here to be a reliever' (http://www.ajc.com/sports/atlanta-braves/kawakami-i-didnt-come-584964.html)

It's OK Kenshin... we didn't bring you over here to go 1-9 as a starter, either.

[007]

It's OK Kenshin... we didn't bring you over here to go 1-9 as a starter, either.


Chopnation eye candy!!!!

[Lauren T.]

I would think that Cox is pretty approachable. Why not just ask the skip?
It could be a cultural difference -- I don't know what the rules in Japan are. Do players barge in the manager's office there and demand to know what's going on? Can they even request a meeting, or do they only speak when spoken to?

Personally, I can only speak to what I saw in batting practice on Monday night -- KK only spoke to Saito, no interpreters or coaches around. Saito appeared to be giving him tips, and they were working on mechanics together.

[luvdembravos]

I understand they actually did try to talk it over:

KK: 私が遊ばれなくて私家に行きなさい

Bobby: Huh? What did he say? :headscratch:


KK: なんでもありません :(

[Wahoo]

Kawakami is getting the shaft and treating him the way they have sure as he'll won't help enticing Japanese players to sign in the future

[007]

Kawakami is getting the shaft and treating him the way they have sure as he'll won't help enticing Japanese players to sign in the future

I'm not sure how he's getting the shaft. Dude isn't getting it done. Not even close.

[Lauren T.]

You can't use "isn't" - present tense - when he hasn't pitched in over a month, 1/4 of the baseball season so far.

[Andy G.]

I don't understand it. Why do this? Why do it to Kenshin and why do it to your bullpen? What's the deal?

Unless they plan on trading Medlen in the offseason, along with Derek Lowe to free a spot for Mike Minor, there is no excuse for having Kawakami waste away in the bullpen like this.

[warefreak]

I don't understand it. Why do this? Why do it to Kenshin and why do it to your bullpen? What's the deal?

Unless they plan on trading Medlen in the offseason, along with Derek Lowe to free a spot for Mike Minor, there is no excuse for having Kawakami waste away in the bullpen like this.

I agree. At this point we're doing more damage to our future with Japan than if we just traded him. If we do want to use him he'll be useless and get hammered as he hasn't faced a live hitter in a month.

Nonetheless, I would love to sit on my arse and make 7 million a year.

I will say this, the article showed that KK is a VERY professional person. The heading of the article does not at all show his humility that the rest of the article shows.

[007]

I'm not sure how he's getting the shaft. Dude has never got it done as a Brave. Not even close.

Patched.

[wordslayer©]

Frank Wren is most effective when he does nothing. I hope to gawd that we don't do any more free agent signings again.

Between Lowe and Kawakami, that's a cool 22 million a year shot.

[RiknTN]

He sucks. Never got it done. Probably a nice guy. If not for his salary he would have been sent down or released by now. Taking up space in the pen. They are afraid to use him. He sucks every time out. Need to make a move with him.

And what doesn't he get?.....Surely he realizes he sucks......

[Andy G.]

He sucks. Never got it done. Probably a nice guy. If not for his salary he would have been sent down or released by now. Taking up space in the pen. They are afraid to use him. He sucks every time out. Need to make a move with him.

And what doesn't he get?.....Surely he realizes he sucks......
This is a severe overstatement. Kawakami is far from sucking. He's a useful major league starter. There are very few teams, less than five I'm sure, that have five guys that are all better than Kenshin Kawakami.

He does not suck.

[Andy G.]

Patched.
Don't take this the wrong way. This is an honest question. Do you look at anything other than wins and losses when evaluating a pitcher? How can you defend Derek Lowe and bash Kenshin? They're aren't that far apart. If you feel so strongly about Kenshin being a bad pitcher, you simply can't defend Derek Lowe for his performance over the year and a half.

[RiknTN]

Patched.

This is a severe overstatement. Kawakami is far from sucking. He's a useful major league starter. There are very few teams, less than five I'm sure, that have five guys that are all better than Kenshin Kawakami.

He does not suck.

If you say so Gilley.....but I don't want the dude out there for ATL.....give him to one of those other 5 teams.....

how bad does a pitcher have t be to suck in your book?.....how could Kawakami do any worse?

[Andy G.]

If you say so Gilley.....but I don't want the dude out there for ATL.....give him to one of those other 5 teams.....

how bad does a pitcher have t be to suck in your book?.....how could Kawakami do any worse?
Really simple, Rik. Have you not given statistics a shot at all? Do you really still look at a pitchers record and think that you're getting a good indicator of his performance? I'm not asking you to drastically change the way you enjoy the game, but any reasonable human being who has been presented the evidence of why wins and losses are a terrible way to evaluate a pitcher should be able to admit that and move on to a few more useful statistics.

He strikes out six batters per nine (6.16). He keeps his walks at three per nine (3.02). His WHIP is around league average (1.44). His FIP is 4.19, and his opponents BABIP is even a little high at .318.

That's a long way from sucking, Rik. It just is. It's not difficult to look at readily available stats that are very easy to understand, and see that Kenshin Kawakami is a useful pitcher.

[wordslayer©]

Let me add to what Gilley was saying.......

I hate Kawakami. I hated him on the day we got him. I thought it was a horrible signing, and I still think that, but in all honesty, he really isn't that bad a pitcher. I can't imagine why some clubs aren't really trying to pick him up. His salary is not that bad, and I wouldn't be terribly surprised if he could tweak a few things and be a better than average pitcher.

If I keep thinking about him, I may actually quit hating him.

[Dreamscape]

I don't understand it. Why do this? Why do it to Kenshin and why do it to your bullpen? What's the deal?

Unless they plan on trading Medlen in the offseason, along with Derek Lowe to free a spot for Mike Minor, there is no excuse for having Kawakami waste away in the bullpen like this.
I agree completely. As much as I did not like the move (I felt Medlen's value to the bullpen was higher and a bigger need), I can understand the rationale behind it. But to basically abandon a player on your team, not give him a shot, etc...it just doesn't seem like Bobby Cox's whole idea of "putting the guy in the best chance for success." And no, just burying him in the pen does not do that (and I knew someone would make that joke).

Kawakami is not a bad pitcher. He's the purgatory of pitchers. Not that bad, not that good. He's so-so. I really don't care what his record is. Pitchers don't win games, teams do. I look beyond that record and see, again, an average pitcher who will give you a shot at winning more times than not. He's the type of pitcher who makes his start and good teams have at the backend of the rotation to stabilize things. In the bullpen, he can give you a shot at pitching a couple of innings once or twice a week when called upon.

And the Braves could have called on him. In Florida, when they chose to rely on the arm of Jesse Chavez over him. I feel for the guy. He questions their choices, but stays supportive of the team in his interview. He wants to help out and doesn't have that opportunity. It's a raw deal that has been given to him.

[-Dr. Brave-]

Kenshin assumed the role of long reliever. Given that he has only pitched once in the last 5½ weeks, the fact that we haven't needed him much is a good sign.

The rest has probably done him some good, at least in a physical sense. With Medlen getting hurt tonight, it looks like we'll all get our wish, at least for a start or two.

[Freddy_Ballgame]

I believe KK's shot is about to come with Medlen going down. I hope he comes in and makes them look stupid for ignoring him. (Of course he gave them ample reason to, to begin with.) If he can step up and pitch like he did late last season it would be huge. He has struggled this year, but he's not a bad pitcher. How do you say "It's put up, or shut up time" in Japanese?

[Gman]

I believe KK's shot is about to come with Medlen going down. I hope he comes in and makes them look stupid for ignoring him. (Of course he gave them ample reason to, to begin with.) If he can step up and pitch like he did late last season it would be huge. He has struggled this year, but he's not a bad pitcher. How do you say "It's put up, or shut up time" in Japanese?

I'll be really surprised if KK gets the ball for Medlen's next start on Monday. KK hasn't pitched since the middle of July and that was just 1 inning. I think Minor is supposed to start tomorrow in Gwinett. If he's skipped or they pull him off that start after 2 or 3 innings then I think he'll be the guy.

[I Come in Peace]

According to about 349 of Dave O'Brien tweets Mike Minor is likely to take Medlen's place in the rotation. He tweeted that Cox says that it has been too long since KK's last start which was on June 26.

[bravos4evr]

Pardon mois but... !@#$ KK!!! If his Vag hurts that much then maybe he should hop skip and jump back to Nippon! Seriously, he has performed .....decently, not amazingly or greatly or heck, even horribly. He has done...ok... IMHO, he has earned his bullpen spot and will earn his trade to whatever team he ends up with when we trade him in december. Is he a bad pitcher? no Good pitcher? no average pitcher who gto outfoxed by a rookie? yep, Medlen out 5th started him.... sorry you did a good job, here's some parting gifts.... welcome to the MLB

[RiknTN]

Really simple, Rik. Have you not given statistics a shot at all? Do you really still look at a pitchers record and think that you're getting a good indicator of his performance? I'm not asking you to drastically change the way you enjoy the game, but any reasonable human being who has been presented the evidence of why wins and losses are a terrible way to evaluate a pitcher should be able to admit that and move on to a few more useful statistics.

He strikes out six batters per nine (6.16). He keeps his walks at three per nine (3.02). His WHIP is around league average (1.44). His FIP is 4.19, and his opponents BABIP is even a little high at .318.

That's a long way from sucking, Rik. It just is. It's not difficult to look at readily available stats that are very easy to understand, and see that Kenshin Kawakami is a useful pitcher.

Yes, I look at stats some. I see that the team wins when Medlin pitches and they lose when KK pitches. All that other stuff means something, but if they don't win, and don't have confidence inthe guy, it's not gonna work out for him in ATL. They need to do SOMETHING with him. Send him down, trade him, something. He's taking up a spot on the roster that doesn't get used.

Looks like Minor is coming up to take Medlin's place. Looks like the ATL suits feel the same way I feel about KK.

[Wahoo]

Yes, I look at stats some. I see that the team wins when Medlin pitches and they lose when KK pitches. All that other stuff means something, but if they don't win, and don't have confidence inthe guy, it's not gonna work out for him in ATL. They need to do SOMETHING with him. Send him down, trade him, something. He's taking up a spot on the roster that doesn't get used.

Looks like Minor is coming up to take Medlin's place. Looks like the ATL suits feel the same way I feel about KK.

I don't disagree with that but I don't necessarily think it's his fault that we don't win when he pitches. Truthfully if our offense wasn't so damn inconsistent he would probably be a .500 pitcher. Something does need to be done with him tho but in my opinion that something is that he needs to pitch.

[sdp]

Everyone wants to see a prospect, even me. But if Mike Minor is brought up to take Medlen's place, the Kawakami situation gets even more bizarre and hard to avoid.

He's pitched in one inning (one!) since June 26th. For a reference point, Jesse Chavez pitched in nine innings over that same period before being traded. Apparently, Bobby simply does not like Kawakami and the only reason he's not in Gwinnett is because the Braves promised Kawakami he'd never be sent to the minor leagues when he signed his contract.

I think this situation is getting really unprofessional and a little embarrassing for the Braves. He's wasting on the roster, collecting a check, and given the impression that he's part of the team all the while someone (Bobby?) has it out for him. It looks to be a tough game when you're not "one of the boys."

[sdp]

The Braves moved Mike Minor's start up a day to tonight at Lehigh Valley. Curious move but it may not really mean anything.

[Gman]

Everyone wants to see a prospect, even me. But if Mike Minor is brought up to take Medlen's place, the Kawakami situation gets even more bizarre and hard to avoid.

He's pitched in one inning (one!) since June 26th. For a reference point, Jesse Chavez pitched in nine innings over that same period before being traded. Apparently, Bobby simply does not like Kawakami and the only reason he's not in Gwinnett is because the Braves promised Kawakami he'd never be sent to the minor leagues when he signed his contract.

I think this situation is getting really unprofessional and a little embarrassing for the Braves. He's wasting on the roster, collecting a check, and given the impression that he's part of the team all the while someone (Bobby?) has it out for him. It looks to be a tough game when you're not "one of the boys."

I don't think giving the ball to Minor next week is as much about who's better as it is about who's ready to go 6-9 innings. Medlen's next start was on Monday, the first game of a 3 game set against the 'Stros. The last thing you want to do against a lower division team is blow out your bullpen the first game of a series. Not saying Minor is a lock for 6 innings but he probably has a better shot at it then KK at this stage given the rust on KK.

If KK has it in his contract that he will never get sent down without his permission and indeed won't give his permission then the only way he gets stretched out is if the Braves get blown out in a game. I'm sure Cox was waiting for that situation but, the Braves haven't been blown out of a game since late June. Ergo, no work for KK. Given the results of his one relief inning, I'd be hard pressed to bring him into a game where the Braves were doing the blowing out because, why let them back in?

I really can't see any reason to start KK with Minor being where he's at right now. KK needs at least 2-3 starts in Gwinett or a couple blowouts to get himself oiled up to start. Option 1 to me is they start Minor on monday and if he gets bombed KK can clean it up without wasting the pen. Option 2 is let KK start and bring up someone from Gwinett to mop up after him. I think Option 1 gives the Braves the best shot at a win.

[Agent-X-]

I don't think giving the ball to Minor next week is as much about who's better as it is about who's ready to go 6-9 innings. Medlen's next start was on Monday, the first game of a 3 game set against the 'Stros. The last thing you want to do against a lower division team is blow out your bullpen the first game of a series. Not saying Minor is a lock for 6 innings but he probably has a better shot at it then KK at this stage given the rust on KK.

If KK has it in his contract that he will never get sent down without his permission and indeed won't give his permission then the only way he gets stretched out is if the Braves get blown out in a game. I'm sure Cox was waiting for that situation but, the Braves haven't been blown out of a game since late June. Ergo, no work for KK. Given the results of his one relief inning, I'd be hard pressed to bring him into a game where the Braves were doing the blowing out because, why let them back in?

I really can't see any reason to start KK with Minor being where he's at right now. KK needs at least 2-3 starts in Gwinett or a couple blowouts to get himself oiled up to start. Option 1 to me is they start Minor on monday and if he gets bombed KK can clean it up without wasting the pen. Option 2 is let KK start and bring up someone from Gwinett to mop up after him. I think Option 1 gives the Braves the best shot at a win.

I think a good first step with KK would be to keep him stretched with simulated starts and not be gunshy about running him out there in the 5th and 6th inning if a starter is getting knocked out or winded.

But the underlying, undeniable truth [right now] is that Bobby Cox is not managing the bullpen very well. It's like he doesn't know what to do with KK. It's as though KK is some unknown commodity that Cox just isn't going to try. No, Bobby sticks with his favorites, his tried trues, his ol' dependables...

So where does that leave KK? Unused.

I hate to say this about KK, but he is a tremendous waste of a roster spot. It has nothing to do with his performance out there and everything to do with Cox's shortcomings as a manager. He has always made questionable bullpen decisions. This is not much different.

[Gman]

But the underlying, undeniable truth [right now] is that Bobby Cox is not managing the bullpen very well. It's like he doesn't know what to do with KK. It's as though KK is some unknown commodity that Cox just isn't going to try. No, Bobby sticks with his favorites, his tried trues, his ol' dependables...

So where does that leave KK? Unused.

I hate to say this about KK, but he is a tremendous waste of a roster spot. It has nothing to do with his performance out there and everything to do with Cox's shortcomings as a manager. He has always made questionable bullpen decisions. This is not much different.

I just don't buy into the "Cox mismanages bullpens" that so many on this site seem to think. The Braves bullpen ranking in all of MLB are as follows: 2nd in lowest OPS Against, 3rd in lowest Bavg Against, 2nd in lowest Slug Against, 6th in lowest WHIP (only .002 points from 3rd.), 17th in most innings pitched, 4th in ERA. You don't get that kind of performance from a woefully mismanaged bullpen. Picking up Farnsworth will now give him a reasonable option to allow Cox to not have to go back-to-back days with Saito. He's the only guy who seems to struggle with that kind of load. When Medlen was in the pen it didn't happen much but since Medlen went to the rotation it happened more often in May/June with spotty results.

Innings use of the relievers is fairly balanced between 5 guys with O'Flaherty (due to injury) and Saito (due to age/recovery ability) the lowest at 41 appearances. Even if Cox continued using the top 5 relievers at the exact same usage levels (doubtful if Farns is successful and O'Flaherty gets healthy) then the top innings guy would be Venters at 81 followed by Wagner and Moylan at around 67 innings. So, to me the whole rap against Cox and his bullpen management is bogus. The fact is he has done an outstanding job with this pen as the results clearly show and the way he slowly weaned Venters along to me was masterful.

[Andy G.]

Nice post. On top of the points you made, I'd like to say that nobody here seems to acknowledge that more appearances doesn't necessarily result in "wearing down" or injury. I agree, Gman. It's a bogus argument.

[Agent-X-]

Nice post. On top of the points you made, I'd like to say that nobody here seems to acknowledge that more appearances doesn't necessarily result in "wearing down" or injury. I agree, Gman. It's a bogus argument.

No, no, and no. Just no. You two are not gonna use that ol' crutch of "Well look at today's stats" and get away as if the past never happened. The list of arms that have been relied on heavily in the past is good enough evidence that Cox does not go to arms he doesn't know or trust--remember Soriano and how sometimes Moylan will go out there five days in a row? It was an accomplishment for Medlen to earn that trust and make it out onto the mound when Bobby has guys like Moylan, Saito, and Wagner who can do it every day. We're talking about common knowledge, not whether Bobby will go to a collection of five arms.

I just can't believe you would go to the stats [right now] and attempt to argue with me over Cox's entire career of bullpen usage. Normally I follow your arguments, but this is considerably weak. I think the point I attempted to make is that Bobby goes to arms he trusts and will sometimes completely ignore guys in the pen he has no experience with. So there.

[Andy G.]

No, no, and no. Just no. You two are not gonna use that ol' crutch of "Well look at today's stats" and get away as if the past never happened. The list of arms that have been relied on heavily in the past is good enough evidence that Cox does not go to arms he doesn't know or trust--remember Soriano and how sometimes Moylan will go out there five days in a row? It was an accomplishment for Medlen to earn that trust and make it out onto the mound when Bobby has guys like Moylan, Saito, and Wagner who can do it every day. We're talking about common knowledge, not whether Bobby will go to a collection of five arms.

I just can't believe you would go to the stats [right now] and attempt to argue with me over Cox's entire career of bullpen usage. Normally I follow your arguments, but this is considerably weak. I think the point I attempted to make is that Bobby goes to arms he trusts and will sometimes completely ignore guys in the pen he has no experience with. So there.
You simply misunderstood my argument. I'm not saying that he doesn't rely only on the few arms that he trusts in the bullpen.

I'm saying that the argument that his relievers wear down over the course of the season is the weak argument, as there have been many relievers that have pitched well under him, without falling off toward the end of the season, despite his tendency to not trust certain members of his bullpen. I don't believe that relievers suffer so much from being used as often as Bobby likes to use them. I don't buy the argument that he "wears guys down" by relying on them as much as he does. I've seen people become irate by the amount a certain reliever is being used, all the while that reliever is getting better as the season goes on. What's the problem with his philosophy? Should he use all of his pitchers evenly simply because they're on the roster? How can anyone argue with the results he's gotten from his pitching staffs over the past twenty years in Atlanta?

[Gman]

No, no, and no. Just no. You two are not gonna use that ol' crutch of "Well look at today's stats" and get away as if the past never happened. The list of arms that have been relied on heavily in the past is good enough evidence that Cox does not go to arms he doesn't know or trust--remember Soriano and how sometimes Moylan will go out there five days in a row? It was an accomplishment for Medlen to earn that trust and make it out onto the mound when Bobby has guys like Moylan, Saito, and Wagner who can do it every day. We're talking about common knowledge, not whether Bobby will go to a collection of five arms.

I just can't believe you would go to the stats [right now] and attempt to argue with me over Cox's entire career of bullpen usage. Normally I follow your arguments, but this is considerably weak. I think the point I attempted to make is that Bobby goes to arms he trusts and will sometimes completely ignore guys in the pen he has no experience with. So there.

Agent-X, re-read your statement "Bobby goes to arms he trusts and will sometimes completely ignore guys in the pen he has no experience with" and name me one manager who has ever successfully managed in MLB that doesn't do that. Give a winning manager 5 guys in the pen who are performing and they'll ride 5 guys. Give them 4 and they'll ride 4. Who is this mythical manager you are comparing Cox to, who is willing to throw games away by consistently putting a pitcher he doesn't trust into close games?

The only different behavior you'll see from a winning manager is if they have a good starting staff and a bad pen they'll ride their starters as far as they can. Cox did that when he had a staff he could ride. But he hasn't in a few years so he rides his best pen arms. I've never bought into Cox being a bad bullpen manager. He's coaxed career years out of innocuous names like Lightenburg, Remlinger, Juan Cruz, McMichel, Poronto, Farnsworth, etc. etc. It's a really long list. Not many of em ever came close to matching what they did in a BC managed pen. Sorry...it's a bogus argument that is made by monday-morning quarterbacks. When Cox has a good pen he gets the most out of it. When he has a good starting staff he gets the most out of it. That's why he wins as much as he has in his career.

[bravos4evr]

Agent-X, re-read your statement "Bobby goes to arms he trusts and will sometimes completely ignore guys in the pen he has no experience with" and name me one manager who has ever successfully managed in MLB that doesn't do that. Give a winning manager 5 guys in the pen who are performing and they'll ride 5 guys. Give them 4 and they'll ride 4. Who is this mythical manager you are comparing Cox to, who is willing to throw games away by consistently putting a pitcher he doesn't trust into close games?

The only different behavior you'll see from a winning manager is if they have a good starting staff and a bad pen they'll ride their starters as far as they can. Cox did that when he had a staff he could ride. But he hasn't in a few years so he rides his best pen arms. I've never bought into Cox being a bad bullpen manager. He's coaxed career years out of innocuous names like Lightenburg, Remlinger, Juan Cruz, McMichel, Poronto, Farnsworth, etc. etc. It's a really long list. Not many of em ever came close to matching what they did in a BC managed pen. Sorry...it's a bogus argument that is made by monday-morning quarterbacks. When Cox has a good pen he gets the most out of it. When he has a good starting staff he gets the most out of it. That's why he wins as much as he has in his career.

two words : LEO MAZZONE

[Agent-X-]

Agent-X, re-read your statement "Bobby goes to arms he trusts and will sometimes completely ignore guys in the pen he has no experience with" and name me one manager who has ever successfully managed in MLB that doesn't do that. Give a winning manager 5 guys in the pen who are performing and they'll ride 5 guys. Give them 4 and they'll ride 4. Who is this mythical manager you are comparing Cox to, who is willing to throw games away by consistently putting a pitcher he doesn't trust into close games?

The only different behavior you'll see from a winning manager is if they have a good starting staff and a bad pen they'll ride their starters as far as they can. Cox did that when he had a staff he could ride. But he hasn't in a few years so he rides his best pen arms. I've never bought into Cox being a bad bullpen manager. He's coaxed career years out of innocuous names like Lightenburg, Remlinger, Juan Cruz, McMichel, Poronto, Farnsworth, etc. etc. It's a really long list. Not many of em ever came close to matching what they did in a BC managed pen. Sorry...it's a bogus argument that is made by monday-morning quarterbacks. When Cox has a good pen he gets the most out of it. When he has a good starting staff he gets the most out of it. That's why he wins as much as he has in his career.

Wow, I didn't think my somewhat outrageous post would generate quality responses.

So let's have at this one question that I think is the heart of the issue: Why are we not getting the most out of Kawakami? Surely he would be the go-to guy if a starter gets knocked out before the 6th inning.

[warefreak]

Yes, I look at stats some. I see that the team wins when Medlin pitches and they lose when KK pitches. All that other stuff means something, but if they don't win, and don't have confidence inthe guy, it's not gonna work out for him in ATL. They need to do SOMETHING with him. Send him down, trade him, something. He's taking up a spot on the roster that doesn't get used.

Looks like Minor is coming up to take Medlin's place. Looks like the ATL suits feel the same way I feel about KK.


With that rational of thinking, Roy Oswalt is one of the worst pitchers in baseball this year. 13 losses?!?! Dude should retire. He's horrible. :thumbsup:

Kenshin is and was a perfect #4-#5 pitcher. He's a victim of horrible luck and no run support. When Medlin took his spot our offense perked up. I am not sure how that happens or if it's just more bad luck for KK, but he deserved a MUCH better record than 1-9. The record doesn't tell anything. ERA tells a little more... WHIP tells a lot more and so on.

[warefreak]

Wow, I didn't think my somewhat outrageous post would generate quality responses.

So let's have at this one question that I think is the heart of the issue: Why are we not getting the most out of Kawakami? Surely he would be the go-to guy if a starter gets knocked out before the 6th inning.

Well... besides yesterday there hasn't been any of those. I think yesterday he wasn't put in because of the article that was posted and the Braves wondering what they are going to do about it.

He is seriously a waste of roster space right now though. Can't we just say the dude is suffering from stress and put him on a restricted list or something so we can at least get somebody up from AAA (Freeman?)

[RiknTN]

With that rational of thinking, Roy Oswalt is one of the worst pitchers in baseball this year. 13 losses?!?! Dude should retire. He's horrible. :thumbsup:

Kenshin is and was a perfect #4-#5 pitcher. He's a victim of horrible luck and no run support. When Medlin took his spot our offense perked up. I am not sure how that happens or if it's just more bad luck for KK, but he deserved a MUCH better record than 1-9. The record doesn't tell anything. ERA tells a little more... WHIP tells a lot more and so on.

It's not their personal pitching record I speak of. It's whether the Braves win or lose the game they start. Kawakami has not helped this team in any way since he got here. Medlin has been just the opposite. he may be a good #4 or #5 starter for some team. His stats say that. But not with THIS team. He's just not good enough to be in this rotation.

[Gman]

Wow, I didn't think my somewhat outrageous post would generate quality responses.

So let's have at this one question that I think is the heart of the issue: Why are we not getting the most out of Kawakami? Surely he would be the go-to guy if a starter gets knocked out before the 6th inning.

He's not a go-to guy at all, especially once he was demoted to the pen for the first time in his career. Once that happened he became a "project". Put him into some blow outs and see how he does coming out of the pen. The goal I believe was to use him as a long-man so he'd be stretched to start if needed. I'm sure the Braves idea of an optimal situation would have been to send him down and let him pitch regularly in AAA as a starter but KK sealed his own current fate by not allowing that by contract. So it was wait for a blow out for him. It never came. He last started on June 26th so he wasn't ready for pen duty until July 1. The biggest blowout since then was the Detroit game and he caused it. Show me what games since July 1 he should have been brought in and in what inning.

It's not an easy transition to go from demoted starter to effective bp guy. Look at how Zambrano struggled in the pen this year after being a starter his whole life. He had something like a 1.80 WHIP out of the pen. Unlike Cox, Pinella used Z a lot because quite frankly the Cubs owe him $53mil thru 2012. That's a lot of dough and the Cubs were bad anyway so what did it matter?

[Lauren T.]

Kawakami spent some time in the bullpen last year too, did he not?

ETA: Just looked it up on Baseball-Reference.com (http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/gl.cgi?n1=kawakke01&t=p&year=2009), he did. 7 appearances in September and October, including that famous 4-inning save on 7/21 vs the Mets in relief of Derek Lowe. Here are the dates he appeared and his opponents:

Sept 4 vs CIN

Sept 6 vs CIN

Sept 16 vs NYM

Sept 21 vs NYM (4-inning save)

Sept 29 vs FLA

Oct 2 vs WAS

Oct 4 vs WAS

[Andy G.]

It's not their personal pitching record I speak of. It's whether the Braves win or lose the game they start. Kawakami has not helped this team in any way since he got here. Medlin has been just the opposite. he may be a good #4 or #5 starter for some team. His stats say that. But not with THIS team. He's just not good enough to be in this rotation.
Dude, there's a difference between not being good enough for this rotation and "sucking" or "not helping the team in any way". He does help a team.

Have you considered the team might have lost all those games that he started because they averaged only 3.5 runs per game when he pitched? There were six games in which Kawakami allowed three earned runs or fewer, and the Braves lost.

The fact is that Kawakami looked worse than he was because of two things: 1) He pitches for a team that has an abundance of quality starting pitchers and 2) The Braves didn't score many runs while he was on the mound.

[RiknTN]

Dude, there's a difference between not being good enough for this rotation and "sucking" or "not helping the team in any way". He does help a team.

Have you considered the team might have lost all those games that he started because they averaged only 3.5 runs per game when he pitched? There were six games in which Kawakami allowed three earned runs or fewer, and the Braves lost.

You have no argument. worse than he was because of two things: 1) He pitches for a team that has an abundance of quality starting pitchers and 2) The Braves didn't score many runs while he was on the mound.

Gilley, we always have a difference of opinion. In your opinion KK is an average pitcher. In my opinion he sucks. At least for ATL. He needs to pitch elsewhere. You might be right. If he wouldn't suck when he pitches then I'm all for him continuing in ATL. Apparently Wren and Cox feel the same way. Go argue with them if you want to argue.

[Andy G.]

Gilley, we always have a difference of opinion. In your opinion KK is an average pitcher. In my opinion he sucks. At least for ATL. He needs to pitch elsewhere. You might be right. If he wouldn't suck when he pitches then I'm all for him continuing in ATL. Apparently Wren and Cox feel the same way. Go argue with them if you want to argue.
I don't want to argue. I want to discuss, but the only way to keep a discussion from turning into an argument is for people to be able to admit when they're wrong. You apparently aren't willing to do that.

[RiknTN]

I don't want to argue. I want to discuss, but the only way to keep a discussion from turning into an argument is for people to be able to admit when they're wrong. You apparently aren't willing to do that.

Neither are you my man...neither are you.

That's sort of funny....."just admit you are wrong and we won't argue".........I hope that serves you well in life.

[Andy G.]

Neither are you my man...neither are you.

That's sort of funny....."just admit you are wrong and we won't argue".........I hope that serves you well in life.
All you've said is "I think he sucks."

All I've said is, his ERA does not suck, his WHIP does not suck, his K/9 does not suck, his BB/9 does not suck, his FIP does not suck....in other words....HE DOES NOT SUCK!

Oh....but Rick thinks a baseball player sucks.....and he believes it with all his wittle heart....so I have to respect that because his opinion is important even if he knows nothing of what he's talking about.....

You thought Kawakami sucked. I showed you that he doesn't suck, and you didn't like that you were wrong, so you refused to admit it. Instead you pretend like we're supposed to agree to disagree. Too bad. You're wrong.

[quick]

One other thing: KK also loses because he is bad on offense, which contributes to the low run support. Medlen is a much better hitter. Case in point:

Medlen .513 OPS, .290 OBP, 5H/27AB, 2 sac bunts, 2 RBI
KK .323 OPS, .192 OBP, 2H/23AB, 4 sac bunts, 0 RBI

Since pitchers bat in the NL, some help themselves win. While KK has more sac bunts than Medlen, that is his only positive stat vis-a-vis Medlen, and that could be the case because of luck, as the opportunity for sac bunts is dependent upon the situation.

[Lauren T.]

KK's going to AAA for a tuneup. From the Braves' official Twitter:

Braves (http://twitter.com/Braves/status/20413414742) Kawakami is being optioned to Gwinnett to build up his strength with hopes he will re-join the rotation later and add depth to staff.

[quick]

KK's going to AAA for a tuneup. From the Braves' official Twitter:


Good for him--it shows he is willing to do what the team requests. Maybe he'll do us some good before it is all said and done. I assume the Minor call-up is forthcoming.

[Lauren T.]

Yep, see the Medlen thread I just started.

[RiknTN]

All you've said is "I think he sucks."

All I've said is, his ERA does not suck, his WHIP does not suck, his K/9 does not suck, his BB/9 does not suck, his FIP does not suck....in other words....HE DOES NOT SUCK!

Oh....but Rick thinks a baseball player sucks.....and he believes it with all his wittle heart....so I have to respect that because his opinion is important even if he knows nothing of what he's talking about.....

You thought Kawakami sucked. I showed you that he doesn't suck, and you didn't like that you were wrong, so you refused to admit it. Instead you pretend like we're supposed to agree to disagree. Too bad. You're wrong.

Your argument here just proves my point that I try to make often on here....it's not JUST about numbers and stats. Player evaluation takes both crunching numbers and real human observation. Obviously you are correct in posting his numbers. They are average numbers. But his outcome of the games he pitches is FAR below average. It can't simply be because we don't score runs JUST in the games he pitches in. Sure that happens at times. It happens with all pitchers at times. But the outcome of games he starts has been bad for almost 2 seasons. So obviously it's more than just his average statistics that cause bad outcomes to games.

And as I see the ATL management feels the same way I do. It's about results, not Fantasy League stats.

OK.....let's just do it this way.....just don't respond to my posts and won't respond to yours. That will save us both a lot of wasted typing.

[Chris_Moderato]

Deep breaths, people...deep, soothing breaths. Repeat after me...

It's only a game...it's only a game...feel the cleansing air come in...breathe the anger out...cleansing in...anger out...it's only a game...

There. Now, doesn't that feel better? Don't we all feel a bit silly getting all worked up arguing about a long reliever?

Everything's cool. Everything's fine. Let's taaaaaaake it eeeeeeeeasy.

[RiknTN]

Deep breaths, people...deep, soothing breaths. Repeat after me...

It's only a game...it's only a game...feel the cleansing air come in...breathe the anger out...cleansing in...anger out...it's only a game...

There. Now, doesn't that feel better? Don't we all feel a bit silly getting all worked up arguing about a long reliever?

Everything's cool. Everything's fine. Let's taaaaaaake it eeeeeeeeasy.



:furious:........:banghead:........:cheers:..........:D

[bravos4evr]

Deep breaths, people...deep, soothing breaths. Repeat after me...

It's only a game...it's only a game...feel the cleansing air come in...breathe the anger out...cleansing in...anger out...it's only a game...

There. Now, doesn't that feel better? Don't we all feel a bit silly getting all worked up arguing about a long reliever?

Everything's cool. Everything's fine. Let's taaaaaaake it eeeeeeeeasy.


it's not just a game!!!! It's friggin Braves baseball!!! TAKE IT BACK!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[Dreamscape]

It can't simply be because we don't score runs JUST in the games he pitches in. Sure that happens at times. It happens with all pitchers at times. But the outcome of games he starts has been bad for almost 2 seasons. So obviously it's more than just his average statistics that cause bad outcomes to games.
Last year, Kawakami's run support was 3.5 per game started. Of the 8 starters who got the call for the Braves last year, only Tim Hudson (3.4 RS/GS) was worse. Remember that Huddy only started seven games (he was just 2-1 despite pretty decent numbers). The Braves were 12-13 in Kawakami's games. They were 21-13 in Lowe's. Lowe received 5.3 RS/GS. That has to play a big role, doesn't it? Sometimes, you get the bad luck of the draw and the team simply won't give you any runs. Taking stats out of the equation, I'll even give credence to the idea that if Pitcher A is getting 3 RS/GS and Pitcher B is getting 5 RS/GS, Pitcher A has to feel more stress to perform at his best everytime while Pitcher B has the experience to feel like even if he doesn't throw a gem, the offense will pick him up.

Staying with last year, another fun little number is Cheap Wins. Basic premise is the pitcher goes six innings, gives up more than three earned runs, and still gets a win. The non-quality start win, if you will. Derek Lowe had four, Tommy Hanson and Jair Jurrjens had three, and Javier Vazquez had a pair. Kawakami? Zero. That's just crappy luck, if you will. When other pitchers were off, the offense occasionally would bail them out. Kawakami...not so much.

This year, Kawakami has that 1-9 record and the team is 5-10 when he starts. Okay, why? Well, he hasn't been as good as he was last year. His sabermetric numbers are up. He is also getting 3.6 RS/GS. This year, Jair Jurrjens has been a little bit worse...getting 3.3 RS/GS. No other Braves pitcher has gotten worse than 4.9 RS/GS. Kris Medlen, for comparison sakes, is getting a team-high 5.5 RS/GS. A ridiculous number that has allowed the team to go 13-1 in his starts. Well, I would guess so. Getting 5 RS/GS puts you above any offense in the NL. 5.5 RS/GS is flatout insane.

Kawakami has yet to get that "cheap win" in his major league career. He does have three tough loses, or quality starts that still are loses. Lowe has five cheap wins, by the way.

I guess I look at these numbers and I wouldn't call these numbers fantasy stats or whatever slam is popular with the traditionalists nowadays. This is simple numbers. You get the runs, the team wins. You get the runs, you don't even have to put up a good start to get a W tacked on. Kawakami has had some rotten luck since coming over. True, sometimes, he hasn't looked all that good, but usually, he has pitched well enough to give the team a shot at winning. His teammates never pick him up. I can't explain why. I don't think there has to even be a reason. It's one of those quirky things that happens in baseball that over a career, likely even out. Doesn't help the Braves too much this year, but given another 15 starts, I think there is a chance Kawakami could have gone 9-1 with Medlen's run support.

Sometimes, crap happens. It really can't be explained fully, but stats can't tell the whole story, as you may say. They can tell you how the person performed, why his numbers may be manipulated due to team, park, and league influences, and all that jazz. But why the Braves don't score with Kawakami on the mound...that I can't explain.

[Chris_Moderato]

Let's go back in time to Dream's last post at 6:01 yesterday and try again...

[Andy G.]

Let's go back in time to Dream's last post at 6:01 yesterday and try again...
After my post responding to the "basement" remark, you decide to start cleaning it up and deleting stuff? Ok...:headscratch:

Your argument here just proves my point that I try to make often on here....it's not JUST about numbers and stats. Player evaluation takes both crunching numbers and real human observation. Obviously you are correct in posting his numbers. They are average numbers. But his outcome of the games he pitches is FAR below average. It can't simply be because we don't score runs JUST in the games he pitches in. Sure that happens at times. It happens with all pitchers at times. But the outcome of games he starts has been bad for almost 2 seasons. So obviously it's more than just his average statistics that cause bad outcomes to games.

And as I see the ATL management feels the same way I do. It's about results, not Fantasy League stats.
As Dream pointed out, Kawakami absolutely has gotten bad run support for almost two seasons. The Braves lost more games than they should have with Kawakami on the mound because, for some reason, they didn't score enough runs during those games to win, and there is proof of that. Stats are how we measure the results of a players performance. Wins and losses are a team stat. Kawakami has gotten average results since coming to the Braves. He does not suck. There's no legitimate argument to be made for your opinion.

Also, the Braves feel Medlen and Minor are better pitchers than Kawakami. That doesn't mean they think he sucks, or that his presence on the mound had some magical affect on the amount of runs the offense is capable of scoring.

[Chris_Moderato]

After my post responding to the "basement" remark, you decide to start cleaning it up and deleting stuff? Ok...:headscratch:

Take it easy, Gilley. No one's out to get you. Perhaps I just forgot to go back and erase his equally childish and ridiculous comment...let me correct that error now.

Now that I've done this, can we all behave like adults? Is everything all fair and square now?

Good.

[Andy G.]

I don't think anyone is out to get me. I was confused. I didn't feel like I wrote anything all that bad in my last post, but maybe I did. I don't remember exactly what it said.

[RiknTN]

I'm not out to get anyone. Me and Gilley just had a nice little argument over differences of opinions. He thinks he's right. So do I. He thinks the way to end an argument is to "just admit you are wrong".

So is this high school or something? The posts get deleted if it doesn't agree with others, even though it didn't concern others? Funny. No wonder I don't post here often anymore. I forgot that if you are not of the "everything MUST be proven by a statistic or it's not so" crowd on here your opinion doesn't count or ca't have a heated discussion because it's not nice. Whatever.........

I was just talking about this with my brother who has been in management and mechanical engineering for 27 years. He said he conducts training classes with younger, just-out-of-college trainees. They almost always come to him with pages of statistics about how the company machining operations should be more efficient. They have statistics that prove it. But in the real world these statistics don't allow for minor variations that are simply going to occur in real life. Operator error, a part is machined micro-millimeter off spec which cause a run of bad parts until someone catches it, a spec of debree gets lodged into a crucial milling joint and it causes a bad run, stock material may be defective. Just many things that happen in the actual everyday real world when it comes to what they do. The numbers say those things shouldn't happen. But they do. It's just the way it really is.

Relating this to sports.....the statistics are true and correct for what they are. They are a history that helps predict the future. But they assume nothing will change. A player makes an adjustment in his stance, get eye surgery, simply just physically matures, and it changes things. The numbers from the past were based on one set of parameters. The parameters change. That's where it takes the human element to make human decisions, based on past results, but by also using human reasoning, which numbers can't do.

As for Kawakami...his numbers DO say he is an average pitcher (I think this was stated). But take his hits/inning pitched. They are average....but only if those hits are spread out evenly over the time side of the graph. What often happened to KK is that he would pitch fine for 2 or 3 innings. But then he would blow up. He would give up 5 hits and a HR all at once. Other innings would be fine. But that averaged out dosn't look so bad. In reality, that one bad inning doomed him and the team. The stats look better evened out over time. But bunch them into 1 or 2 innings and it don't look very average. Add that too the fact that he recieved on average, low run support, and you see why he lost so many games. He has to get past that 1 bad inning. Hanson is doing that in the early innings right now. Hampton and Glavine used to have terrible 1st innings. It happens for some reason. Some things can't be explained by numbers. These are human beings out there. Maybe they had a fight with their wife or girlfriend...or both. Maybe they didn't sleep last night. Maybe they have an undisclosed injury. There are many human elements that can't always be explained.

So that's my explanation and my "argument" for my point of view. Agree or disagree. That's up to you. But I don't think I'm wrong......just as others don't think they are wrong. Nothing wrong with that.

[wordslayer©]

First and foremost....I like this thread. I like listening to two bright people make their case and then seeing how it plays out. I like the fact that you all are bickering and fighting it out. It's entertaining AND enlightening.

Second of all, I like the fact that Chris just stepped in and tried to remind you all that this will all blow over and not to overreact. If there were any editing, I think you are reading too much into it.

Some of my thoughts. As I get older, I see how most people, as they age, think the young kids "don't know nearly as much as they think they do" speech. Young people know a helluva lot. Are they perfect? Nope, but then again, who is? Wisdom is sometimes nothing more than a bunch of prejudices we learned at a young age and held onto into our old age.

First of all, this clutch issue. Why is it that a batter gets to suck it up and be clutch, but the pitcher doesn't? How come only offense is clutch? Why can't, in crucial situations, the defense be clutch? I know, if it were me, and I were playing second base, in high pressure situations, I'd sure be trying harder to field the ball correctly and make a clean throw. I think in clutch situations, everyone gets clutchier, and when that happens, we are all back to square one again, and as usually happens, the better player plays better.

As far as the stats go, what do they really mean? Well, I guess it depends on if you cherry pick them or not.

We keep information that we want to keep and we discard information that we don't want to keep. I am sure that most everyone on here has done that. Sometimes we do it consciously and sometimes we don't. If I want to make the argument that Bonds is steroid induced cheating mother f*cker that should be banned from the hall of fame, then I'm going to discard stats that I don't want and keep the ones that I do.

The stat argument is getting kind of long in tooth. Everyone uses them. Some people use them more than others, and the ones that use them most can give you very detailed information on why they do, and the ones that don't use them so often can give you reasons why they don't. We all find reasons to think what we want to believe.

Here's a neat stat. More ballplayers are get injured before the all star break than after the all star break. I'm not sure what the exact numbers are, but it is significant. This is a fact. Now, the fun part is.....how do you use the information you have to make assumptions from that? Can you make accurate assumptions while using the stats we have.

Sometimes the hardest part is just trying to recognize what it is we don't know.

[Gman]

Relating this to sports.....the statistics are true and correct for what they are. They are a history that helps predict the future. But they assume nothing will change. A player makes an adjustment in his stance, get eye surgery, simply just physically matures, and it changes things. The numbers from the past were based on one set of parameters. The parameters change. That's where it takes the human element to make human decisions, based on past results, but by also using human reasoning, which numbers can't do.



Perfectly stated RiknTN. I'd wager a lot of money that the biggest statistical anomaly in baseball is the player who from year-to-year consistently produces within 10-15% of his accumulated statistical average or even his past years performance. I bet you'd be lucky to find five players that do that on any meaningful statistical category. Being off by 10-15% is a huge swing in baseball. It's the difference between hitter putting up a 900 ops vs an 800 ops.

Statistics are fun but there's a big fallacy in using them as a predictor of human performance. Here's a great example. I took a guy I consider to be one of the most consistent performers of this decade Doc Halladay. I looked at the one statistical measurement he has the most control over, walks and strikeouts. I figure walks and strikeouts are pretty much down to being between him and the hitter with no impact from fielders, ballparks etc. To make it simple I used his walk to strikeout ratio as the metric to measure the consistency of Doc's performance over the years. I started with his first 200 inning season as a baseline. Here are his performance improvements versus degradations from year-to-year on his K/BB ratio:

2002: 2.71 K/bb baseline year
2003: 6.38 +240% improvement over 2002
2004: 2.44 -260% drop from 2003
2005: 6.00 +250% improvement
2006: 3.88 -160% drop
2007: 2.90 -25% drop
2008: 5.28 +185% improvement
2009: 5.94 +11% improvement
2010: 7.52 +250% improvement

His cummulative average k/bb over this period was 4.32. Now I'm no scientist but I would call the above performance incredibly unpredictable from a statistical measurement standpoint. And this is from Mr. Predictable of the Decade! Living proof that humans are far far removed from being machines. To predict what we will do next you need to go way beyond the numbers.

[Hobbes]

My recollection is that the points made in this thread were not that stats were a reliable indicator of future performance, only that they were the best measure of past performance. If you want to evaluate how well a player has performed (say, Kawakami), the stats will tell you more accurately than any gut feeling. Further, stats are not created equal, and some stats (e.g., WHIP) are more indicative of individual performance than others (e.g., Wins).

Now one can use these indicators of past performance to inform future decisions about said players, but I don't think anybody was claiming that future performance was predictable based solely upon those stats.

[Hobbes]

I don't think there is much to be gained by further discussion of this point Andy.

[Lauren T.]

I don't know if this is indicative of anything, but Kawakami's t-shirts were on clearance in the Braves Clubhouse Store tonight - all the way down to $10 from $28. That's significant. No explanation, just a sign on top of the rack that said "Clearance".

(Also on the rack, Escobar shirts at $5 and $10. My friend and I bought the only two $5 shirts they had, both mens XLs. We didn't care that they were so huge - they were dry and we'd been caught in the rainstorm and they were $5!)

[Andy G.]

I don't think there is much to be gained by further discussion of this point Andy.
You're right. Post deleted.

Rick, I'm sorry to have belittled you. I never intend for conversations to devolve to this level of childishness. You are absolutely entitled to your opinion. We've been through this before, and you and I seem to always come away from it alright. I hope the next time we discuss something it won't be like this, and I'm aware that I am largely at fault here. I'm gonna try real hard to not do...this...anymore.

[RiknTN]

Gilley, I got nothing personal against you at all. I like a good argument. But in the end most all arguments never concedes to one side or the other. Eventually both sides have to shake hands and walk away and agree to disagree. And that's OK. This isn't about world politics and the destruction of mankind....it's just about sports.....and more precisely a team we all love to watch and pull for....the Braves. So we're sort of all on the same side here in the end.

As to the seemingly being condecending to the youth.....I in NO WAY intend to be that way. The younger people here have, or could have, gotten a much better education than I had. There are more and more opportunities to learn at a younger age now. A lot of young people are smart as hell. Smarter than MANY older people. But there is something for being a little older too. I'm not TERRIBLY old. Old enuf to be many of your's dad....in my early 50's. But what people my age have got over some of the younger people is REAL EXPERIENCE. And I try to pass that on to younger people so they maybe won't make the same mistakes. I have been through about everything a middle class guy can go through. College...marriage....a great kid (who is now more your age at 27)....divorse....single relationships.......BAD relationships......owned my own business....have hired and fired people....have gone broke....have built back up......owned houses and made good deals and bad deals......now I'm in real estate and building and that's gone through good and bad..........I've traveled a lot......seen many beautiful places and and few horrible places. So I just see how some of the ideals that younger people sometimes have are great...to a point....but usually there comes a fly in the ointment.....and you just have to be ready for that. MANY times your gut call, works out much better than the long drawn out, researched to death, statistically correct decision. I will try to keep this to myself more and not try to give advice where it's not asked for from now on.

And I'm sure anyone who has read all this is bored beyond end by now.......so let's go enjoy the rest of the weekend.

[bravos4evr]

Never trust anyone over 40.... especially rednecks :-)

[RiknTN]

Never trust anyone over 40.... especially rednecks :-)

Very true.........:D

[Gman]

The good news is Gwinett put up a 11 spot for Kawakami tonight. Apparently he must've feinted from the avalanche of run support because he didn't get past the 3rd inning.

[-Dr. Brave-]

He undoubtedly had a low pitch count given his lack of work recently for Atlanta.

[Freddy_Ballgame]

I thought KK was supposed to pitch Monday, like Minor, so they'd be on the same rotation schedule. What changed?
Hey Nick, that line was Never trust anyone over 30. Wasn't very reasonable then, either!

[bravos4evr]

I changed it cuz I am over 30...

[The Rap]

What is with the "barvos4ever" and "Barvesfan hawaii?"

[Garydee]

I love this idea. http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/atlanta_braves/index.html