2009-2010 Offseason Trades/Transactions/Free Agent Rumors

[Lauren T.]

Here's a place to post trade rumors and speculation for the 2010 season.

I get a lot of tips, links, rumors, etc. sent through the Meebo IM box on my blog. More often than not they end up having merit, so I'm curious about the validity of a recent tip I received...

Prince Fielder for Jurrjens OR Hanson, a straight 1:1 tradeOpinions? I'll be honest, I'd enter talks over this one. Prince is only 25 and is a legit cleanup hitter, but he only has one year left on his contract. (If we extended Prince, what to do with Freddie Freeman? Teach him LF?)

[Chris_Moderato]

We were talking about this just a second ago elsewhere. I think the fact that Prince has one more year left on his contract would make either of these deals very unappealing. If Prince was signed beyond one more year, I think I'd deal JJ before Tommy Hanson, only because, as Lauren pointed out to me, JJ is represented by Boras. Weak.

[sdp]

It'd be more like Ryan Braun for Jurrjens OR Hanson.

I'd trade Jurrjens for Braun--not Hanson.

[KB 34]

The Braves acquired a 1B a lot like Fielder pretty recently, his name was Teix. That is wishful thinking on the part of Brewer fans. Everyone knows Fielder is going to get paid handsomely and it isn't happening in Milwaukee. Braun isn't going to be dealt because he's going to be the only big bat left for the Brewers after Fielder leaves and the Brewers paid him well to stick around an extra year.

[Andy G.]

No. Absolutely not. I know how frustrating it is when people shoot down an idea like that, and I don't usually do it, but I would never make that trade. Not in a million years. Insane if you ask me. I don't care if we work out a deal to sign Prince long term as part of the deal.

I would not trade Jurrjens or Hanson for anything that could realistically be done. We can get a hitter without sacrificing a great young pitcher. We need some offense, but we don't need Prince. Not for that price. I'd be pissed.

Again, I'm not somebody who is typically close minded to these types of things, but I'd be soooooo pissed if that happened. I'm getting a little mad right now thinking that it could happen.

This year we got NOTHING from second base, center field, right field and first base for large chunks of the season, and with a few adjustments, had maybe THE BEST team in the National League in the second half. It's not going to be that hard to find enough offense to compliment our pitching staff next year, especially with Heyward coming onto the scene. Find a firstbaseman some other way(trade Vazquez). Count on Prado to continue being a good hitter(he doesn't have to be great), and put Jason Heyward in right field to start the season. We'll have enough offense next year. We have enough offense right now. We just didn't have nearly enough offense in the first half.

Edit: Also, keep in mind that Jurrjens isn't a free agent for another four years. Even if he is represented by the best/worst agent in baseball, we'll have a great group of young players emerging over that time. We can't trade him now. I just would never consider it.

[BarveFanHawaii]

I'd lean away from Prince mainly because I'd be afraid that his bulkiness may begin to hinder him healthwise in his late 20's and early 30's. There's no real proof that it will, but it's just a concern of mine in regards to him.

Honest to God, I don't even consider moving Hanson under any circumstance. What we've witnessed out of him this season is just the tip of the iceberg in regards to his potential, IMO. I really do think we've got something EXTREMELY special. I feel if anyone thinks he's been amazing this season, they will be hard-pressed to find new words to describe the performance he'll post over the next handful of years.

On the other hand, I'd consider moving Jurrjens. While I do see the obvious talent, I also feel his value is peaking (much like Vazquez's value is) and that we've seen perhaps the very best we'll ever see out of him. If there were ever a time to make a deal, it'd be this winter, as unpopular as the idea may be with most fans.

That said...I'd probably rather lay my money on Jurrjens duplicating his 2009 stats than I would Vazquez. I know I've beaten it to death since about mid-May, but Vazquez almost needs to be traded....not because I don't like him or I think he'll suck, but because of all the pitchers we have his value is at it's absolute highest and he could be very marketable if the new Toronto GM doesn't flat out give away Halladay for a pack of Big League Chew. To clarify...Kawakami and Lowe are likely not tradable despite what the media will tell you (for good relations overseas and financial reasons, respectively), Hanson is untouchable, Jurrjens is young/cheap/retainable, Hudson will likely come cheaper on an extension than Vazquez will (and we may very well get similar production over the course of that extension between Tim and Javy). Javy, if I were in the GM hot seat, is easily the one to leave the rotation in 2010.


All that said, there are only a select few hitters I would trade Jurrjens for. Very few of which are right-handed, which is the Braves wish, I'd think. Of course, right-handed hitters can come via free agency and legitimate sluggers come few and far between via trade. A hitter I'd consider for Jurrjens is Adrian Gonzalez. Addy Gonzo's streakiness would be a concern of mine, but his power in undeniable. That guy is a beast and hasn't been shown anything to hit in that Padres lineup in quite some time (and he's still poised to post a 100-RBI season on top of 40 HR). He's very affordable over the next two years before becoming a free agent in 2012. 4 years of Jurrjens for 2 years of Adrian Gonzalez worth it? Maybe. Maybe not. One thing to consider is something Gilley mentioned, though. Scott Boras may not allow us to negotiate a longterm deal to keep Jurrjens around. On the other hand, John Boggs (Exactly. Who?) probably wouldn't prevent Gonzalez from saying he'd like to negotiate an extension after 2010 to get Gonzalez some guaranteed money. We will have to give him a huge raise...but a huge raise on $4-5M may still be affordable and worthwhile for us.

Ultimately, I'd love for Vazquez to be moved in a three-way deal. We send Vazquez to a non-west coast team needing a starting pitcher. That team packages up some good looking prospects to a third team. That third team sends us a slugger. It's complicated and I won't go into it for simplicity's sake...but the potential is there for a deal like this one.

[KB 34]

As Gilley pointed out the Braves have Jurrjens for another four seasons. If you ask me it's far too early to worry about who is agent is. See what happens over the next two seasons and then start thinking about it. A huge number of really good players have Boras as their agent and if a team is that afraid of him they're not going to have a prayer at winning ever.

[The Rap]

I wouldn't trade Hanson or Jurjjens for just about anything.. I can't see us dealing Vasquez simply becuse Bobby has wanted him fo so long, he finally gets him and the guy pitches lights out, and then we want to trade him?Can't see it happening. Lowe is probably untradeable unless a humongous salary comes back to us in a deal (Manny Ramirez?) Kawkami impressed a lot of people and the Mariners and Dodgers might be interested for starters.I think we have to addres the bullpen frst because both Soriano and Gonzales are FAs. My hope is to see us get Billy Wagner and re-sign Soriano.

[BarveFanHawaii]

I can't see us dealing Vasquez simply becuse Bobby has wanted him fo so long, he finally gets him and the guy pitches lights out, and then we want to trade him?Can't see it happening.

I think we have to addres the bullpen frst because both Soriano and Gonzales are FAs. My hope is to see us get Billy Wagner and re-sign Soriano.

On Vazquez. It's not really Bobby's choice. Frank Wren is in charge of making personnel moves and he'll make the best business decision, whether that is trading Vazquez, or Lowe or Jurrjens or letting Hudson go. If the rift between Bobby and Wren is there like it's been suggested recently, I don't think Bobby's opinion means much to anyone but himself.

I agree that the bullpen is a primary focus. I disagree with your hopefulness for both Wagner and Soriano. Soriano sure would be nice, as well as Wagner...but I'm not sure they both financially fit into the same bullpen. Nor will Wagner (or Soriano for that matter) appreciate having to step down out of a closer role. The best case scenario of all would probably be if Gonzalez accepts arbitration and Soriano doesn't, coupled with a well-thought out deal for a setup man which would once again give the Bobby a bullpen he can use and abuse.

DISCLAIMER: I should note that when I say use and abuse, I generally mean Bobby's habit of leaning on his big main guys until they are almost completely worn out like he's done to Gonzalez, Moylan and Soriano on multiple occasions this season.

[Freddy_Ballgame]

As I see it....Fielder can mash, but his size and lack of interest in conditioning would prevent me from making a move for him. No way I would trade Jurrgens or Hanson for him. Period. As good as JJ was again this year, I think his best is yet to come. He already knows how to dominate teams when he doesn't have his best stuff. His strikeout totals are moving up, I believe. Next year may see the Cy Young making a return appearance in Atlanta, courtesy of JJ. He's an untouchable if I'm GM.
I also like Gonzalez but his streakiness and low batting average concern me. If I thought I could get him I may offer a deal with Medlen or Acosta...someone like that, although I'm not sure I'd move Medlen. Acosta may be another Jorge Sosa or Juan Cruz. All the "tangibles" but missing the element that allows him to harness that great arm.

[-Dr. Brave-]

Fredi Gonzalez, who signed a two-year extension during Spring Training and guided the Marlins to 87 wins and a second-place finish in the division, is not assured of a job next season (http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/news?slug=ge-marlinsmanager100409&prov=yhoo&type=lgns&expire=1) and could be replaced by Bobby Valentine.

If this happens, it would be nice if he could find a spot on Cox' last coaching staff and be the manager-in-waiting.

[KB 34]

The Marlins began the 2009 season with a $35 million payroll
He leads a team with that kind of a payroll to an 87 win season? That sounds pretty impressive to me. The Marlins owner is a moron if he expects to compete with that little of payroll.

[Lauren T.]

Fredi Gonzalez, who signed a two-year extension during Spring Training and guided the Marlins to 87 wins and a second-place finish in the division, is not assured of a job next season (http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/news?slug=ge-marlinsmanager100409&prov=yhoo&type=lgns&expire=1) and could be replaced by Bobby Valentine.

If this happens, it would be nice if he could find a spot on Cox' last coaching staff and be the manager-in-waiting.
Fredi has been my #1 choice to be Bobby's successor since I met him a few years ago. He's a very funny man! And seriously, he gets good production out of the Marlins' tiny payroll every year -- imagine what he could do with the Braves' triple payroll. Greg Norton wouldn't be trotted out every day, I'll tell you that. ;)

[Dreamscape]

For those curious...the Braves will select 20th (http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/prospects/ask-ba/2009/268957.html) in next year's draft.

That is, if they don't sign a Type A free agent and lose it.

[Middle Man]

Did you know that only the Phils and Angels won more road games than the Braves this years? But the only teams with fewer home wins are the Os, Royals, Indians, Nats and Dbacks.

[luvdembravos]

It looks like our inept play against the Nationals this past weekend had two useful purposes:

1. It moved us up 3 positions in next year’s draft.
2. It served to remind Braves’ management how woeful our offense was in 2009. I was worried that after the amazing three week run, management may have been lured into the false illusion that our offense was OK. Clearly, changes need to be made.

[barvos4evr]

I'm interested to see if the team makes an effort to re-sign Laroche.... I'd be in favor of it if it's a short term deal 1-2 years at like $8 mill per or less. He might bite so as to try and put up a monster year and cash in next year ...... If we can re-sign him and flip Vazquez for a bat ( or the parts we can flip for a bat). Our roster next year could be pretty impressive.

Mclouth
Prado/KJ
Chipper
outfield 30+ HR bat
McCann
Escobar
Laroche
Diaz( change to Heyward after June 1st)


that would be formidable and would have to make us the favorites in the NL.

[luvdembravos]

I wasn't really impressed with McLouth this year. Maybe he just didn't perform well in the games that I watched but his offense from the lead-off spot wasn't anything special. Sure, he's a good defender and better than Schafer but he wasn't as good as advertised.

[KB 34]

McLouth is an average or potentially slightly above average outfielder who puts up decent numbera. Unfortunately he had to play the role of leadoff hitter and best power hitter for some of the season. I'm confident he'll look much better in a more solid lineup. Also keep in mind he's dirt cheap next season at $4.5 million according to Cot Contracts.

I expect the Braves to try and keep LaRoche considering he was dynamite after being reacquired, probably the Braves best bat. As far as money goes he made $7.05 million this season and I suspect will get a minimum of $7.5 million on the free agent market. There are two ways teams could look at him, the guy who put up okay numbers this season, or the guy who tore it up the second half of the season and is the real deal. The first guy gets 2 years $15 million, the second gets 4 years $44 million. For 2 years $15 million I'd probably give him the money, if the Braves have the kind of money I think they do. If it's much more than that forget it. I don't know which scenario is most likely honesty. It depends when, why, and if the market goes crazy at any point this offseason.

[BarveFanHawaii]

Just a side thought on Derek Lowe and the possibility of trading him.

It's obvious there aren't many teams capable of taking on his contract, and the ones that can either don't need starters or probably wouldn't want him anyway.

The one team I see that could actually use him is the New York Yankees. I know how a lot of people feel about trading with the Yankees, but they are pretty much the only team able to take on that kind of salary without totally dumping another crappy contract on us. Hell, if we're lucky, they'll flip us a nice looking reliever to pitch the middle innings for us (someone other than Coke, Robertson and Bruney who will setup Mariano with Hughes going back to the rotation). I mean...you gotta figure, for a complete salary dump you can't expect much back, can you?

[Dreamscape]

Fredi Gonzalez, who signed a two-year extension during Spring Training and guided the Marlins to 87 wins and a second-place finish in the division, is not assured of a job next season (http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/news?slug=ge-marlinsmanager100409&prov=yhoo&type=lgns&expire=1) and could be replaced by Bobby Valentine.

If this happens, it would be nice if he could find a spot on Cox' last coaching staff and be the manager-in-waiting.
He apparently will be back (http://msn.foxsports.com/mlb/story/10177232/Sources:-Marlins-will-retain-Gonzalez-as-manager) in Miami next year.

[BarveFanHawaii]

Posted a blog about the starting pitching heading into the off-season.

http://www.chopnation.com/boards/blog.php?b=30

Covers basically all the candidates that may not be part of the 2010 rotation and what I, personally, would do if it were up to me.

[Middle Man]

Posted a blog about the starting pitching heading into the off-season.

http://www.chopnation.com/boards/blog.php?b=30

Covers basically all the candidates that may not be part of the 2010 rotation and what I, personally, would do if it were up to me.

Nice analysis, BFH. As I mention in the blog comments, this was very similar to my thinking throughout the season, except that I'm now thinking it likely that Wren may not go after Hudson unless he really gets a great discount.

[luvdembravos]

Posted a blog about the starting pitching heading into the off-season.

http://www.chopnation.com/boards/blog.php?b=30

Covers basically all the candidates that may not be part of the 2010 rotation and what I, personally, would do if it were up to me.


Kudos BFH for another fine piece of writing.

As much as I like Vazquez, he almost has to be traded if we expect to get some legitimate offensive help this winter.

A dream scenario would be to trade Lowe or KK for a bat but I don’t see that happening. Like you said, we basically got Vazquez for nothing last winter so in a way, Wren is playing with the house’s money if he decides to trade Vazquez. Also, you made an excellent point about the implications of trying to acquire future Japanese talent if we trade KK after only one year... not a good PR move indeed. Besides, KK didn’t stink up the joint and was better in the second half as he adjusted to life in the U.S. and MLB. I also like the fact that he didn’t complain when relegated to the bullpen in September. He appears to be a "team player" and not a prima donna cry baby.

[KB 34]

Has Kawamaki done that much for the Braves in terms of PR? I honestly haven't noticed anything positive or negative. I doubt trading him would do much other than make a lot of Japanese sluggers dream of playing on a team where $15 million Lowe is the #5 starting pitcher. That isn't to say moving him is the right or wrong move, I'm saying I don't think it would be a huge deal. I'll be interested to hear more local views on this.

[Andy G.]

It's not really possible for any of us to know the impact that having Kawakami on our team will make on future Japanese free agents. It seems to be widely accepted that showing loyalty to a Japanese player and having him feel comfortable in your city is a nice advantage when pursuing other Japanese players. BFH made a great point. When you consider the effort that the Braves put into to showing Kawakami that Atlanta would be a nice home for him, it's difficult to believe that trading him would not be "a huge deal". I think it would.

Also, the past few months have made it very difficult for me to imagine Tim Hudson in another uniform next year. Tim and his wife, Kim, have always been known for their philanthropy. Recently, though, with all of the flood victims in the Atlanta and metro-Atlanta area, they've been all over the place helping people and inspiring others to help as well. They're on radio stations, news telecasts and Kim even made in appearance in the booth during a game a few weeks ago. The Hudson family and the city of Atlanta are just too perfect of a marriage. I know how Wren is, or at least what his reputation is, but I can't see an organization getting rid of the guy who represents them better than any other employee they have. On the field, it makes sense to keep Hudson. He's just as good as Vazquez. They work differently, but the outcome is about the same. That combined with his off the field work makes it nearly impossible for the Braves to let Tim Hudson go, IMO.

Edit: Before anybody brings up Mike Hampton and the fact that he was also known for his charitable donations, it was not the same as Tim Hudson. The Hudson family has made a lasting impact in Atlanta. I honestly think that a lot of Braves fans in the area feel the same way I do.

[-Dr. Brave-]

Here's a good post from MLB Trade Rumors and some reader comments discussing some of Atlanta's options for getting a bat:

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2009/10/righthanded-power-options-for-atlanta.html

[GeneGarberForPrez]

Adrian Gonzalez - 2010 (4.75M), 2011 (5.5) club option, 2012 (Free Agent)

Derek Lowe - 2010 (15M), 2011 (15M), 2012 (15M)

Trade Lowe for Gonzalez straight up, and each team keeps the contract they currently have. So the Braves pay the Padres 10.25M in 2010 and 9.5M in 2011, then pay half of Lowe's contract (7.5M) in 2012.

The Braves fill a need at 1st for 1 or 2 years depending on the progress of Freddie Freeman, and at least rid themselves of part of Lowe's contract in 2012.

The Padres get a front line starter on the cheap, and are able to unblock Kyle Blanks at 1st, plus free up some money to make some other acquisitions.

[HaRdCoReBrAvEsFaN]

A team with the Pad's Payroll can't afford to do a deal like that...the only reason for them to trade Adrian is to get young cheap talent while cutting payrolll...it's a great idea for us, but not so much for them...

[Lauren T.]

Has Kawamaki done that much for the Braves in terms of PR? I honestly haven't noticed anything positive or negative.
I don't know if you count this as PR, but I've seen many, many more Asians (specifically Japanese) at the ball park this year than in previous years. I see them walking on the streets of Atlanta in Kawakami t-shirts and Braves hats. I think he's definitely bringing more fans to the ballpark, even if it's a smaller minority.

[BarveFanHawaii]

Adrian Gonzalez - 2010 (4.75M), 2011 (5.5) club option, 2012 (Free Agent)

Derek Lowe - 2010 (15M), 2011 (15M), 2012 (15M)

Trade Lowe for Gonzalez straight up, and each team keeps the contract they currently have. So the Braves pay the Padres 10.25M in 2010 and 9.5M in 2011, then pay half of Lowe's contract (7.5M) in 2012.

The Braves fill a need at 1st for 1 or 2 years depending on the progress of Freddie Freeman, and at least rid themselves of part of Lowe's contract in 2012.

The Padres get a front line starter on the cheap, and are able to unblock Kyle Blanks at 1st, plus free up some money to make some other acquisitions.Gonzalez could be had, I'm sure. However, it won't be for Lowe at half price or even for free.

Gonzalez may very well come in a trade, but it'll cost us Vazquez for certain...possibly even a nice prospect more.

And no...Vazquez wouldn't be going to San Diego. He'd be going to a third team which would front the bulk of the major league ready talent going towards the Padres.

[Lauren T.]

It's in Vazquez's contract that he can block any trade to a west coast team -- too far from his family in Puerto Rico, he says.

[BarveFanHawaii]

It's in Vazquez's contract that he can block any trade to a west coast team -- too far from his family in Puerto Rico, he says.
Exactly. It makes it extremely inconvenient for the Braves in the sense that a lot of the west coast teams could use his services and could give us a bat.

Fortunately for us, there are ways around that at least for our purposes of getting a bat. Trading him to a central or east team for players we can send to the west coast for a bat we could use would work perfectly fine. Not that Javy would be happy...considering the only way he can get any closer to Puerto Rico is going somewhere in Florida and that's not where I envision him ending up.

Though, the Rays certainly might be able to take him (and more importantly sacrifice some prospects) if they made the right moves as well.

[BarveFanHawaii]

Part 2....My thoughts on the offense.

http://www.chopnation.com/boards/blog.php?b=31

Hopefully I'll have the time and will to type up the bullpen tomorrow.

[KB 34]

With arbitration the Braves could end up paying Diaz/Church $5 million to platoon in LF, with that in mind I suggest the Braves pay really close attention to any potential for outfielders falling through the cracks like last offseason. For another couple million the Braves might be able to land a really nice outfielder who will bloww them out of the water and solve some power issues.

[BarveFanHawaii]

If you non-tender the right people and make the right trades...you don't have to look for a "nice" outfielder and you can get yourself a solution instead.

[The Rap]

First of all, I truly believe we are already adding a great bat next year with Heyward who will have the job if he excels in Arizona. Dealing Lowe to SD for Gozales won't happen because the Padres want young blood. I would be happy to just sign LaRoche to a two year deal with a 3rd year mutual option and have Freeman ready. Also, give Diaz a first baseman's glove to platoon somewhat with Laroche in the first half of the year. I still believe the player we should pursue is Alex Rios for Lowe and Jordan Shafer. And we can add a player or two if that isn't enough

[Dreamscape]

First of all, I truly believe we are already adding a great bat next year with Heyward who will have the job if he excels in Arizona.
He might have a leg up, but the Braves can't possibly believe a rookie will suddenly step into the center of the lineup and produce. There are simply far too many questions facing the Braves offense. If they want to compete, they have to address at least some of the questions.
Dealing Lowe to SD for Gozales won't happen because the Padres want young blood. I would be happy to just sign LaRoche to a two year deal with a 3rd year mutual option and have Freeman ready. Also, give Diaz a first baseman's glove to platoon somewhat with Laroche in the first half of the year.
LaRoche will be looking at eight figures, especially in that short of the deal. He might be willing to give up some annual salary for a longer deal, but at that short of a contract, he will want at least $10M.
I still believe the player we should pursue is Alex Rios for Lowe and Jordan Shafer. And we can add a player or two if that isn't enough
Here's a potential SAT question for you:

John Schuerholz : Mike Hampton :: _______ : Alexis Rios
A. J.P. Riccardi
B. Kenny Williams
C. Frank Wren
D. All of the Above

We are talking about a guy who has close to $60M due to him over the next five seasons. He has two seasons that could be considered sufficiently above average. And I wouldn't give them Schafer to take a crappy player off their hands. Schafer wasn't ready this year (sometimes, rookies need time...*hint, hint* Jason Heyward). I still don't doubt that within two years, McLouth will be in left (where he should be) and Schafer and Heyward will be in the other spots.

Get used to the idea that Derek Lowe will be a Brave next year and hope like hell he bounces back so that you can deal him after 2010. The Braves need to work with him every day this offseason. Christmas, he can have some ham and then needs to work on his sinker.

[BarveFanHawaii]

3rd part of the blog...the bullpen.

http://www.chopnation.com/boards/blog.php?b=32

Next time is the summation of all the ideas and some of the specific names I was thinking of.

[KB 34]

The think about about a workhorse is after a while they become dog meat, and they typically don't have nine lives either.

[jlcct]

The think about about a workhorse is after a while they become dog meat, and they typically don't have nine lives either.
do you live on a farm?

[KB 34]

I've read Animal Farm a number of times if that counts.

[Devil Wears Prado]

What do you guys think of Vlad Guerrero? Anyone think he could be the Bobby Abreu of this offseason? Only thing about him is that he's probably not that type of fielder that he once was anymore... but I guess if Garret can play left, Vlad should be able to too...

just throwing a name out there for discussion... am also curious to see what others think of him.

[Lauren T.]

Upon seeing him on TV during Angels BP, I said aloud, "Vlad looks SO OLD!"

So...that's my answer. Too old.

[Wahoo]

Upon seeing him on TV during Angels BP, I said aloud, "Vlad looks SO OLD!"

So...that's my answer. Too old.

I concur. Dude looked old 3 years ago. It's hard to believe the guy is only 34. Methinks he's fudged his birth date.

[Dreamscape]

His legs won't hold up. Those years in Montreal have really screwed up his body.

[Hobbes]

All those years playing on that crap surface in Montreal has taken its toll on his body as well.

[-Dr. Brave-]

I concur. Dude looked old 3 years ago. It's hard to believe the guy is only 34.

Only 34, but that's like 40 in non-Latino years.

[bmcva10]

I think we will:

- resign LaRoche longterm
- lose Hudson via free agency
- trade K. Johnson and another player or two for bullpen help
- lose either Gonzo or Soriano (I figure we'll sign one)
- resign Ross if he isn't already under team control in '10

Then I feel confident we'll move Kawakami or Lowe. I know it's almost impossible to do so, but I've got a feeling Wren already has moves in mind and will make it happen early this season. I don't see a Bay or Holliday in our future. I'd guess we get another G. Anderson type outfielder to hold down an OF spot 'till they are ready to bring Heyward up. I think Schafer's struggles may have eliminated any chance of Jason starting '10 on the mlb roster.

In some ways I hope I'm wrong about most all of this. I'd love to see Huddy come back, and I'm not really ready to see KJ leave, but he's going to cost too much if we're looking to add another bat and arm.

[barvos4evr]

I think that Laroche will only be re-signed for a 3 year deal at most ( and the Braves would hope to trade him as soon as Freeman is ready in a year or two). I don't know if the team is willing to pay what Laroche may get in Free agency tho.... he could get offered 4 yrs $38-$42 million!!!! I wouldn't pay him that much. Maybe 3 yrs $24 million , but not 8 figure money!!!

Hudson will remain a Brave, I think that he will end up running the team around 3 yrs $28.5 million with another option like the one he just had . It frees us up to ship Vazquez off for parts or bats and frees up $13 million or so.

I think Soriano will be gone, KJ will be moved for a pen guy .

I do think the braves will make an offer to Jason Bay and Holliday, do I think they will take it? Hard to tell, but I think that the teams name will be mentioned a fair bit and I wouldn't be surprised at all if they signed one of those two guys. I think that a Bay signing would be good and a Holliday signing would be a disaster however.
I don't think we will sign either unless we somehow trade Lowe off somewhere.... But it wouldn't surprise me to find out we did!

[BarveFanHawaii]

I think Soriano will be gone, KJ will be moved for a pen guy .

I do think the braves will make an offer to Jason Bay and Holliday, do I think they will take it? Hard to tell, but I think that the teams name will be mentioned a fair bit and I wouldn't be surprised at all if they signed one of those two guys. I think that a Bay signing would be good and a Holliday signing would be a disaster however.
I don't think we will sign either unless we somehow trade Lowe off somewhere.... But it wouldn't surprise me to find out we did!Agree with the first quoted statements. Soriano's not going to have trouble finding work, IMO. There's been question about whether the Braves will risk arbitration on him or not...and they may take the safe route and not extend the offer, but I think the arbitration offer won't matter. Despite his minor knicks and scares this season, he's easily in the top 3 of available closer-quality arms on the market.

I also agree to an extent on the thought of making an offer to Jason Bay and/or Matt Holliday. It really depends on the route the rotation takes and the way Frank Wren plans to fill his other voids in the bullpen and at first base. If we are able to not pay up for a closer and acquire a first baseman on the cheaper side, I can definitely see an over the top offer made to one of the big two bats on the market.

If we do get involved with either player it'll come down to which one will be viewed as the better bang for buck. When you consider them offensively AND defensively, Matt Holliday is clear and away the better player between he and Bay. It's just a matter of trying to figure out how much better Matt Holliday really is and how much that value is worth in dollars. I mean...if Jason Bay is going to get $16M and Holliday will sign for $18M, you opt to give Holliday the money over $2M worth of savings. If Holliday is going to ask for $20M+ and Bay's going to get $15M, you probably will want to opt for Bay and spend your savings elsewhere. The way I see it, if you're involved with them...you can't go wrong with either if you've planned the rest of your roster financially.

On that thought. Letting Hudson leave via free agency, while it frees up money, does not allow for us to spend big bucks on these guys. The only way we will be able to afford Bay or Holliday and fill our other roster needs will be to re-sign Hudson at a discounted price and trade Vazquez for players that will impact the 25-man roster at closer and/or first base.

[BarveFanHawaii]

Last part of my 4-part blog post is up.

Basically covers what names I'd target for my ideas.

http://www.chopnation.com/boards/blog.php?b=33

Admittedly, the big acquisition is highly unlikely...but I found reason for it. Of course, I'm not a big fan or believer in the prospect I traded away.

[BarveFanHawaii]

http://www.chopnation.com/boards/blog.php?b=39

Schuerholzitis....let's hope Wren doesn't catch it.

[KB 34]

That might be a little harsh on average players. The Braves started last season with below average production at 1B, 2B, LF, RF, and CF. Get average production out of those positions early on and the Braves might still be playing. I do agree the Braves need a couple difference makers, but I'm not buying one reliever will make a huge difference, I want 3 quality relievers added to the bullpen. As far as the lineup goes the Braves need a big bat and I'm not convinced LaRoche is the answer.

I do hate the assumption players want to play for the Braves. That was probably true three years ago, now the Braves have missed the playoffs for the 4th straight season. You know what you call that kind of team? A losing team, a losing team that's always making a stink about players and agents being traitors for that matter. I don't expect discounts and I don't think they're needed either. Wren needs to pull off some really nice moves and hope BC gets a shot of common sense before he retires. No entitlement garbage, this team is a losing team that sucks until they prove otherwise, which I really hope happens and think Wren has a good chance of doing.

[The Rap]

I shudder at the thought of watching LaRoche hit in the first half of a year. I wouldn't mind getting Kotchman back and making him a strict platoon with Matt Diaz at 1B. Of course all that is a stop gap until Freeman is ready to take over.

I predict that Soriano will sign with the Angels where he would be a perfect fit. I still think we should go after Billy Wagner who was firing the ball when he returned.

There is one place that needs Lowe and that is the Yankees who have lost faith in Joba as a starter. I really believe we should work with the Yanks to pull off a Lowe + for Phil Hughes deal.

I seriously doubt we will be in the mix for either Holliday or Bay and it doesn't bother me because it would be an overpayment in every sense for each of them.

My dream OF would be from left to right, McLouth, Shafer and Heyward.

[BigWorm]

I really hope we're past the Kotchman experiment Rap. And I can think of a hundred different combinations for my "dream outfield". But if you're only selecting from available Braves options, then your choice is as good as mine. Except Shafer who is drastically overrated.

[Lauren T.]

But if you're only selecting from available Braves options, then your choice is as good as mine. Except Shafer who is drastically overrated.
I'm glad to see someone else feels this way. I'm not drinking the Schafer Kool-Aid.

[Dreamscape]

The only problem I have with Schafer is he bats left-handed.

He has displayed pop, has speed, a superb plate approach, and is a great defensive player. Oh, and he has youth on his side. He sucked this year, but I'm not down on him at all. He may never be Grady Sizemore, but he can be pretty good. The Braves can't rely on him this year, but I won't be upset to see no long-term options brought in to play outfield this offseason because of him and Heyward.

[luvdembravos]

I'm glad to see someone else feels this way. I'm not drinking the Schafer Kool-Aid.

Me either ... he's another Kelly Johnson in the making.

[CharlotteBrave]

All I've been reading about as potential FAs are Jason Bay and Matt Holliday, but what about a guy like Carl Crawford?

I saw posted elsewhere that he'd be a Type B guy (which blows my mind), so I'm assuming he wouldn't cost nearly as much. I also read a post on TC last year explaining the Braves' team speed, and how we were dead last in total speed and severely lacked a true leadoff hitter.

I think a guy like Carl Crawford could really open our line-up up, and we could utilize McLouth's power better as well.

Thoughts?

(Disclaimer: I just read this on another forum about Crawford without due diligence and research, so if what I read was wrong, my apologies!)

[Andy G.]

I hadn't thought about Crawford in a while either. I think signing Carl Crawford would be an excellent move if we also got a right handed first baseman with a lot of power. If we bring in a cleanup hitter(ideally in a trade for Vazquez) AND signed Crawford to hit leadoff, our lineup will be as good as our rotation, and we'll be one of the best teams in the majors.

[The Rap]

Crawford isn't a FA yet. After the 2010 season is when he will be so if we want him we need to make a deal and I doubt we have anything they want.

[BarveFanHawaii]

Rap has it right. Crawford's got one more year on his current contract.

However, the Rays probably will be looking to deal him if they can get something they need in return. Vazquez comes to mind, because the two of them would basically be an even salary swap and the Rays could very well need a veteran to "lead" their young staff. With that in mind, I don't like the idea because one year of Crawford is another example of an awful return on Vazquez's value.

[Andy G.]

This is something to keep an eye on. The Yankees spend stupid amounts of money, so I'd have to guess that he'll end up in New York, but you never know. Yunel Escobar could talk to him and persuade him to sign with Atlanta. It could happen.

Braves join race for vaunted Cuban defector Chapman (http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2009/baseball/mlb/11/02/chapman.braves/)
Add one more team to an already long list of suitors for Cuban lefthander Aroldis Chapman. The Atlanta Braves are the latest team seeking to meet with Chapman's agent, two sources told SI.com.

Though an exact date, time and location for a meeting have not been established, the two sides are expected to schedule formal conversations in the coming weeks.

The 21-year-old with a fastball that's been clocked as high as 102 mph will be one of the most sought-after free agents of the offseason.

The Braves join the Orioles, Red Sox, White Sox, Cubs, Yankees, Mets, Athletics and Cardinals as teams with reported interest in Chapman.

The 6-foot-4 pitcher defected July 1 during a Cuban National team tournament in Rotterdam, Holland. Chapman's career record is 24-21 and he twice led the Serie Nacional, Cuba's professional league, in strikeouts.

[Gman]

The only problem I have with Schafer is he bats left-handed.

He has displayed pop, has speed, a superb plate approach, and is a great defensive player. Oh, and he has youth on his side. He sucked this year, but I'm not down on him at all. He may never be Grady Sizemore, but he can be pretty good. The Braves can't rely on him this year, but I won't be upset to see no long-term options brought in to play outfield this offseason because of him and Heyward.

I'm with you on Schafer Dreamscape. He's got a great stroke, short and very quick. He's too young and has too much talent to be writing off just because he couldn't hit ML pitching with a really bad wrist. That wasn't just a little injury, it was bad enough to require surgery. If Shafer comes back strong by April or May it would open up some excellent early season trading doors for Wren. A talented young CF like McLouth or Schafer might bring in a nice equally talented corner outfielder with a strong RH bat. I'm guessing Shafer will need more than spring training to shake off the rust so he'll probably start out in AAA. But he could come quick if that wrist is fully healed. There's nothing better than a cocky kid with a lot to prove. He's gonna be hell-bent on getting even with pitchers for last years humiliation.

[warefreak]

This is something to keep an eye on. The Yankees spend stupid amounts of money, so I'd have to guess that he'll end up in New York, but you never know. Yunel Escobar could talk to him and persuade him to sign with Atlanta. It could happen.

Braves join race for vaunted Cuban defector Chapman (http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2009/baseball/mlb/11/02/chapman.braves/)


Not only do we not have the money the other clubs do but we don't have room in our rotation for him. He's going to take a LOT of money and I imagine he'd be a VERY nice fit in our bullpen but I think he'd take too much of our payroll to be in nice fit in the bullpen and he probably wants to be in a rotation.

With all that being said I'd love it if he somehow signs with da Braves. I just don't see it happening... at all.

[sdp]

Chapman is outside our MO. I don't see it, Yunel Escobar hailing from Cuba or not.

[KB 34]

The Yankees can overpay him and eat some of his contract to trade him to one of the other teams on the list in a few seasons.

[Andy G.]

Not only do we not have the money the other clubs do but we don't have room in our rotation for him. He's going to take a LOT of money and I imagine he'd be a VERY nice fit in our bullpen but I think he'd take too much of our payroll to be in nice fit in the bullpen and he probably wants to be in a rotation.

With all that being said I'd love it if he somehow signs with da Braves. I just don't see it happening... at all.
I agree that we have very little chance of getting him, but do you think he'll go into the majors right away?

[HaRdCoReBrAvEsFaN]

depends on the team, but the best route would probally be a few starts at AA then move him to AAA and then maybe MLB for the 2nd half...

[ATL2123]

Anybody have ESPN insider? They're discussing a possible Uggla for Vasquez swap.
http://insider.espn.go.com/mlb/features/rumors?&action=login&appRedirect=http%3a%2f%2finsider.espn.go.com%2fmlb%2ffeatures%2frumors

[Hobbes]

Ugh-la.

Just say no to the one-trick pony.

[Middle Man]

Anybody have ESPN insider? They're discussing a possible Uggla for Vasquez swap.
http://insider.espn.go.com/mlb/features/rumors?&action=login&appRedirect=http%3a%2f%2finsider.espn.go.com%2fmlb%2ffeatures%2frumors

Ugg! Where do they get this stuff? That would really make no sense unless they were planning to move Prado to 3B or something. He hits more HRs but overall is there really much difference between Uggla and Prado? After a quick check of career OPS, I would say no - except that Uggla's salary will be much higher in the short term.

[Chris_Moderato]

Ugg! Where do they get this stuff? That would really make no sense unless they were planning to move Prado to 3B or something. He hits more HRs but overall is there really much difference between Uggla and Prado? After a quick check of career OPS, I would say no - except that Uggla's salary will be much higher in the short term.

This (http://florida.marlins.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20091104&content_id=7616436&vkey=news_fla&fext=.jsp&c_id=fla) is probably where they got that rumor.

[Hobbes]

This (http://florida.marlins.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20091104&content_id=7616436&vkey=news_fla&fext=.jsp&c_id=fla) is probably where they got that rumor.
Talk about a flimsy basis for a trade rumor.

[luvdembravos]

Flimsy indeed. When did Mark Bowman start ghostwriting for the Marlins?

[quick]

I for one am tired of the rentaplayer deals unless we are getting someone mid-year to put us over the top. Trading a good player for one year of service for player X before X goes to the Yankess, Cubs, Sox or another monster payroll team is pitiful.

I would only do sign and trade deals. For someone like Fielder, sit down with him, his agent, Milwaukee, and get a deal done for the next four or five years and then trade Vasquez (or someone else) for him, for example. No way do I "take my chances" on having Fielder for a year and convincing him to stay--doubly so with our managerial uncertainty now.

Just my $ and cents worth. ;)

[HaRdCoReBrAvEsFaN]

I wouldn't trade Javy V for Uggla straight up, but if we were to trade for Uggla I would hope that the Braves use Prado in a deal to get a dependable late inning reliver or in a bigger package for a bat...I know alot of people say we'll we'll be getting our Corner production from 2B and 2B production from a corner spot, but if Prado's not at 2B he needs to be on the bench or dealt he should not be starting everday at 1st or in the OF...

[Agent-X-]

On the surface, the deal doesn't seem that unreasonable considering Vazquez is basically a rent-a-player, too. That said, I would almost rather get some long term solution for our team and forget about trying to maximize immediate production from the deal. A proven staff ace for one year has to be worth something pretty good, doesn't it?

Right?

[warefreak]

I for one am tired of the rentaplayer deals unless we are getting someone mid-year to put us over the top. Trading a good player for one year of service for player X before X goes to the Yankess, Cubs, Sox or another monster payroll team is pitiful.

I would only do sign and trade deals. For someone like Fielder, sit down with him, his agent, Milwaukee, and get a deal done for the next four or five years and then trade Vasquez (or someone else) for him, for example. No way do I "take my chances" on having Fielder for a year and convincing him to stay--doubly so with our managerial uncertainty now.

Just my $ and cents worth. ;)

That's my opinion as well. I am sick of getting burned with one year players and costing us so many good prospects. I think it's time we changed our strategy and focusing on getting the best long term return. We should never again hope for signing an extension with a player after the contract is up, but should make sure before we trade for that player an extension is already in place.

[KB 34]

On the surface, the deal doesn't seem that unreasonable considering Vazquez is basically a rent-a-player, too. That said, I would almost rather get some long term solution for our team and forget about trying to maximize immediate production from the deal. A proven staff ace for one year has to be worth something pretty good, doesn't it?

Right?
Vazquez was acquired under contract for two full seasons. The Braves have the option of dealing him for more than they paid for him, or let him pitch out another season. Exit now and the Braves got a #1 pitcher for a year and upgrades for inferior prospects. There's also the option to let him pitch out the season and see what happens. The farm system wasn't sold to acquire him either. I don't consider Vazquez to be a rental at all given the flexibility it's allowing the Braves now.

[Hobbes]

Don means that he would be a rental player for the team to which we trade him.

[BarveFanHawaii]

Not Braves-related, but JJ Hardy was sent to Minnesota for Carlos Gomez. I assume Gomez will be Mike Cameron's heir in centerfield in Milwaukee.

Only reason I mention this is because I have speculated we could send Vazquez to Milwaukee for a package of Gamel and JJ Hardy sent to a third team for a slugging 1B or outfielder, but since that got blown up I just wanted to state that it could work out even better now. Since Gomez is in the majors, we could possibly get the Brewers to loosen their grips on other top prospect outfielders in their system in a deal involving Vazquez and Gamel. The only task left after that would be to find a team willing to get young retainable top prospects for a slugger....and I'm sticking with my original idea (Check my GM Hot Seat blog for reference).

[Agent-X-]

I'm not fond of Nady. If you're so intent on moving Kelly Johnson (how much would he cost for next season??), why add Nady who has had an equal amount of success? Nady at $6 milllion is kind of a sad move even though it would be a one year deal with Heyward ready to fill in if Nady doesn't work out. I see the logic there, but loathe that it eats funds that could solidify first base.

Do like the idea of getting Juan Cruz back. That's not a bad exchange with Kelly Johnson. Otherwise, we are just eating a tremendous loss with Kelly's stock being at rock bottom. How much could he possibly rake in for sucking so hard that we would be better off to give someone else a real bargain? I mean, I have full confidence he will bounce back at some point...

[JanShan12]

I saw a ridiculous rumor today on ESPN.com, but couldn't read all of it because I'm not a paying "insider". It said that the Braves are possibly going to make Tommy Hanson their closer!

[GTechBravesFan]

So I have a few.

KJ and Kawakami for Matt Capps.

Kawakami and prospects for Nelson Cruz.

or we could re-sign Adam LaRoche and go after Jermaine Dye

1. Matt Diaz
2. Martin Prado
3. Chipper Jones
4. Jermaine Dye/Nelson Cruz
5. Brian McCann
6. Yunel Escobar
7. Adam Laroche
8. Nate McLouth

Seems like a pretty formidable lineup to me. With the pitching we have, this is a championship team. Medlen/Moylan as the Closer by committee. Proctor as the set up guy and you have one heck of a team

[Lauren T.]

I don't know the Pirates' second base situation, but according to the last year's production, we could probably get Matt Capps for KJ straight up. Matt's from my hometown and my brother played little league with him. I wouldn't mind seeing him in a Braves uni.

Welcome to the board! A mod might combine this thread with the main offseason trade chat thread (http://www.chopnation.com/boards/showthread.php?t=371), since we don't usually start new threads when there's an existing similar thread open.

[BigWorm]

Hanson a closer?
10:51
AM ET
Tommy Hanson | Braves Top Email

There is no such thing as having too much starting pitching, but Mark Bradley of the Atlanta JC still thinks the Braves should consider a bold option: make prized right-hander Tommy Hanson a closer.

With Tim Hudson agreeing to a three-year deal, the Braves will have six starters under contract for 2010. Bradley's Exhibit A is Jonathan Papelbon, who made the transition to the bullpen for the Red Sox.

Luckily I am an insider. Screw ESPN.

[GTechBravesFan]

sorry I as you have noticed am new here.

[Hobbes]

Hanson as a closer is a truly horrendous idea. Luckily the Braves are too smart to consider such nonsense.

[GTechBravesFan]

Medlen on the other hand seems logical to me

[BigWorm]

Medlen doesn't strike me as the kind of pitcher with explosive, "closer stuff". I don't think he'd be too effective in the long haul.

[BarveFanHawaii]

I'm not fond of Nady. If you're so intent on moving Kelly Johnson (how much would he cost for next season??), why add Nady who has had an equal amount of success? Nady at $6 milllion is kind of a sad move even though it would be a one year deal with Heyward ready to fill in if Nady doesn't work out. I see the logic there, but loathe that it eats funds that could solidify first base.

Do like the idea of getting Juan Cruz back. That's not a bad exchange with Kelly Johnson. Otherwise, we are just eating a tremendous loss with Kelly's stock being at rock bottom. How much could he possibly rake in for sucking so hard that we would be better off to give someone else a real bargain? I mean, I have full confidence he will bounce back at some point...

Sorry to get to this late. Just got home from work (plus the time difference to "the rock").

Nady's much more established than Kelly, sadly. He doesn't have the over the top power that you'd want from a corner outfielder, but he's got 20-25 HR pop and has shown at least the consistency to hit .260-280 on any given year with the possibility of hitting .300 on a good year. $6M may be steep, but I'm considering it a one year deal and the fact that he's a Boras client. God honest truth, I'm expecting him to make a Bobby Abreu-esque figure ($5M) maximum based on his lost season.

Nady, again sadly, is an upgrade of Kelly Johnson...take into account that he's right handed and it becomes an even better "match" or "fit" or whatever you want to call it.

As for Kelly Johnson's salary. After blowing so hard in 2009, his salary could actually top $3M and get into the $3.25M range. It's the major flaw of arbitration that a guy like Kelly Johnson can get a raise after a down year. It'll be a minimal raise on his $2.8M-something salary right now, but it's still an undeserved raise and salary. Kelly Johnson, if not traded, is a prime candidate to be non-tendered by the deadline to offer arbitration eligible players contracts.

The logic ONLY works if a whopper of a trade like Adrian Gonzalez comes to fruition. Many people don't think the Braves can pull of this kind of deal, but I certainly do based on my research of the league's needs and what not. If it's a Padres player we're likely to land, though, I feel it'll be Heath Bell as the Padres feel they are closer to contention than they really are. I still wouldn't count out being able to land us a bopper via trade, though...and Nady would be a nice compliment to our lineup....as long as he isn't forced to bat cleanup.

[BarveFanHawaii]

So I have a few.

KJ and Kawakami for Matt Capps.

Kawakami and prospects for Nelson Cruz.

or we could re-sign Adam LaRoche and go after Jermaine Dye

1. Matt Diaz
2. Martin Prado
3. Chipper Jones
4. Jermaine Dye/Nelson Cruz
5. Brian McCann
6. Yunel Escobar
7. Adam Laroche
8. Nate McLouth

Seems like a pretty formidable lineup to me. With the pitching we have, this is a championship team. Medlen/Moylan as the Closer by committee. Proctor as the set up guy and you have one heck of a team
The Pirates likely won't need a 2B having traded for Aki Iwamura. They could, however, use Kawakami. The only problem with trading Kawakami for Capps is that we'd be massively overpaying in value for Capps, who is coming off a down year. The smaller issue is that Frank Wren might balk at the idea of trading Kawakami after working so hard to build a "bridge" to Japan last season. Why work so hard to make Atlanta seem like a good destination for Japanese free agents just to burn that bridge a year later?

Signing Adam again seems plausible if he is willing to take a discount to stay and a maximum of a 2-year deal with Freeman waiting in the wings. Some seem to think it's a strong possibility, but myself and a few others here have a feeling Adam's going to try and get his payday this winter after reaching free agency for the first time and our offer will have to at least be within the ballpark of the highest bid for us to retain his services. That said, I still wouldn't be hurt if he returned to us on an accepted arbitration offer. In fact, I think it may be our best "fit" with him.

As for the bullpen by committee, I'm not a strong believer in thrusting Medlen into that role, nor having Moylan be part of our "committee". I'd much prefer to have Moylan available for the 7th and 8th innings, O'Flaherty picking up the change on lefties and a regular man to "save" games for us in the 9th. Proctor could be a nice addition (and his salary is minimal at $750K prorated) but if he makes the club at any time in 2010, I feel he will be best used for providing us with depth in the middle relief, where we will be hurting the most. Remember that we are going from a bullpen that was 3-4 arms deep to a bullpen that is basically returning only two reliable arms (depending on who you talk to, of course).

[Murphys#1Fan]

I'm going to throw this out there and see what everyone thinks about it. Don't know if this is my head or my heart speaking here but I'll give it a shot. Saw over on the AJC that John Smoltz has filed for FA. If he and the team could get over all the contractual strife that took place before the 2009 season and if he wouldn't mind coming back to Atlanta...could anyone see him as our Closer once again. Couldn't you just hear ACDC's Thunderstruck playing as Smoltz trots out from the bullpen in the 9th. Gives me chillbumps. Assuming he'd be willing to comeback and that's an assumption as bit as Mt. Everest...what would it take to get him back here? Would like to hear everyone's opinions.

[Lauren T.]

I wouldn't mind having Smoltz in the bullpen, but I don't think he'll get off his high horse to consider coming back.

[bmcva10]

With the White Sox seemingly decided on opting to go a different direction with Jermaine Dye, I am personally anticipating some articles claiming the Braves are in serious talks to bring Dye back to Atlanta. If we could sign him to a 10-12 mil/1yr contract or a 17-20 mil/2yr contract, I'd consider it a step in the right direction for 2010.

I say this because I don't foresee Bay or Holliday in a Braves uniform come spring training. If we can scoop up Dye, we will have picked up a 25-30 home run, right-handed bat. Even if Heyward isn't ready by opening day, and we are unable to sign another OF, we would still project much better offensive (and equal or better defensive) production from a trio consisting of Diaz/McClouth/Dye.

Obviously, moving Lowe and/or Kawakami would really increase our offseason flexibility for more big moves. I don't see Lowe going anywhere this offseason. Maybe we can find a trade partner after 2010, assuming the economy has proven to be in a stable state. I do believe we will move Kawakami for relief help before the new year.

I think LaRoche is a Brave for 3-5 more years, and I think we will know for sure, one way or another, very soon. Saying that, I think it's almost a given that KJ is gone with either Kawakami or another player or two to really solidify the pen.

We already have a good group of bench players in place. So, even with the departure of Norton, I don't believe acquiring a bench guy to be a priority. I think Soriano comes back for one more year...just a gut feeling

Let's say I'm right about Dye and LaRoche:

McClouth
Escobar
C. Jones
McCann
Dye
LaRoche
Prado
Diaz/Platoon LH
Pitcher

That would have likely been enough to get into the playoffs this season had we sported this lineup the whole year. Heck, it may have been enough to be playing in the World Series.

Now, if we are to pass on Dye, and trade Javy - I see the several teams as potential suitors: Reds, Dodgers, Tigers, and Rockies. I'll leave it at that, and hope to get some feedback from you guys.

[BarveFanHawaii]

Now, if we are to pass on Dye, and trade Javy - I see the several teams as potential suitors: Reds, Dodgers, Tigers, and Rockies. I'll leave it at that, and hope to get some feedback from you guys.Just the biggest portion I'm going to touch on now.

Javy has a no-no clause to western divisions; Dodgers and Rockies will be vetoed. The Tigers seem like a good fit on the exterior, but I've got an itchy feeling they're out of money and can only swap a contract with us; if it's Miguel Cabrera...woohoo. Anyone else, eh...not so excited on my end. Reds, I'm not entirely sure what they have planned, really. Volquez being down and Owings blowing kind of creates the need for pitching, but who could they give us that's worth our while? I'd gladly take Votto, but that's not happening from their end, I'm sure.

The team I've targeted and stuck with thus far is the Brewers. They've stated they have the need for two pitchers and someone to be Gallardo's support. They have the prospects available we'd need to trade in a mega-blockbuster three team trade to land a bat.

My outside shot is the Cubs, since it seems they are not planning to re-sign Rich Harden. The sale of the team might actually help them add payroll and they've got some prospects they could spare in a trade to help us land a bat.

[Gman]

I was just thinking a potentially low cost insurance type addition that would be a great fit for the Braves would be Troy Glaus. He came back surprisingly fast from his shoulder surgery last year so although he's always somewhat of an injury risk he could be a nice frequently used bench guy for the Braves. Good RH power bat off the bench. Great guy to have him coming off the bench when Chipper has his 20-40 games out of the lineup compared to what they've had lately. Even if the Braves resign LaRoche, Glaus would be good to have incase LaRoche goes down or to spell him when they face tough lefties.

Signing Glaus to a low cost deal might also allow the Braves to consider a smaller $ commmit to a 1b vs resigning LaRoche. They could probably sign Kotchman and Glaus for about 30-40% less than what it'll cost to re-up LaRoche. And for that money they would end up with a good backup plan for Chipper injuries.
What do you all think of doing something like that?

I also think Connor Jackson's situation is one the Braves should be watching. He a young RH bat with potential upside and is having a solid winter season after recovering from valley fever. He's a potential non-tender for the Dbacks, or a tender-and-trade guy. KJ for Connor Jackson might be a smart swap for both teams.

[The Rap]

"The Braves could be in the market for a second baseman?" I wonder when the last time was when the writer watched a Braves game.

[GeneGarberForPrez]

I'd like to see the Braves make a move for Marlon Byrd. They could move McLouth to right for the time being, and platoon Church and Diaz in left. That would add a much-needed right-handed bat with a little pop. Last year he hit .283 with 20 HRs and 89 RBIs. He is one of the better CF free agents this year, but could probably be had for about $8.5M for 2 years.

Even if Heyward (lefty) comes up in the middle of the season, McLouth could move to left and Diaz would end up being a 4th outfielder (and a pretty nice one at that).

I think I'd rather do that and leave some money for other needs. LaRoche could probably be signed with some of the money remaining.

I would like to see the Braves hang on to all the starting pitching they currently have in the event of a catastrophic injury. If everyone is healthy halfway through the season, I think trade value might be maximized by dealing for some young offense at the deadline rather than over the winter. I think teams are more willing to part with young talent if they think it will help them make a serious playoff push. Maybe a 3rd baseman or 2nd baseman becomes available then.

The only question that would need to be answered is, what do you do with the extra arm until then? Six man rotation? Send Hanson back to Gwinnett?

[Agent-X-]

I'd like to see the Braves make a move for Marlon Byrd. They could move McLouth to right for the time being, and platoon Church and Diaz in left. That would add a much-needed right-handed bat with a little pop. Last year he hit .283 with 20 HRs and 89 RBIs. He is one of the better CF free agents this year, but could probably be had for about $8.5M for 2 years.

Even if Heyward (lefty) comes up in the middle of the season, McLouth could move to left and Diaz would end up being a 4th outfielder (and a pretty nice one at that).

I think I'd rather do that and leave some money for other needs. LaRoche could probably be signed with some of the money remaining.

I would like to see the Braves hang on to all the starting pitching they currently have in the event of a catastrophic injury. If everyone is healthy halfway through the season, I think trade value might be maximized by dealing for some young offense at the deadline rather than over the winter. I think teams are more willing to part with young talent if they think it will help them make a serious playoff push. Maybe a 3rd baseman or 2nd baseman becomes available then.

The only question that would need to be answered is, what do you do with the extra arm until then? Six man rotation? Send Hanson back to Gwinnett?

What??

[-Dr. Brave-]

I'd like to see the Braves make a move for Marlon Byrd. They could move McLouth to right for the time being, and platoon Church and Diaz in left. That would add a much-needed right-handed bat with a little pop. Last year he hit .283 with 20 HRs and 89 RBIs. He is one of the better CF free agents this year, but could probably be had for about $8.5M for 2 years.

Even if Heyward (lefty) comes up in the middle of the season, McLouth could move to left and Diaz would end up being a 4th outfielder (and a pretty nice one at that).

I think I'd rather do that and leave some money for other needs. LaRoche could probably be signed with some of the money remaining.

I would like to see the Braves hang on to all the starting pitching they currently have in the event of a catastrophic injury. If everyone is healthy halfway through the season, I think trade value might be maximized by dealing for some young offense at the deadline rather than over the winter. I think teams are more willing to part with young talent if they think it will help them make a serious playoff push. Maybe a 3rd baseman or 2nd baseman becomes available then.

The only question that would need to be answered is, what do you do with the extra arm until then? Six man rotation? Send Hanson back to Gwinnett?

I think in that scenario, McLouth would play left and Church/Diaz would platoon in right.

I'm a fan of the six-man rotation if the starters can average 7 innings per start, which should allow us to get away with no more than 5 or 6 relievers. However, using a middle reliever would be a lot cheaper than keeping Derek Lowe, or even half of Derek Lowe, so I don't see it happening.

[GeneGarberForPrez]

What??

My argument is that the Braves should hang on to their starting pitching depth until they can extract maximum value for it. It is my contention that that time will be near the 2010 trade deadline. That, however, would create a rotation problem between now and then. I was asking if anyone had any ideas on what to do during that interim period. I wasn't necessarily advocating any particular solution.

But thank you for your well reasoned and insightful question!

[KB 34]

The Braves best power hitter going into 2010 is arguably McLouth and that should scare everyone. LaRoche being the best power hitter wouldn't be quite so scary, nor would someone else in the 30-35 HR mold. I know pitching wins etc, etc, etc. However, there needs to be some offense as well. It isn't often a team has too much starting pitching but the Braves do so I say be thankful it's not the other way around.

[BarveFanHawaii]

http://blogs.ajc.com/atlanta-braves-blog/2009/11/03/fall-leagues-in-full-swing-rumor-mills-about-to-be/comment-page-25/#comment-345232

Someone here at the meetings who would probably know, told me the Braves have at least discussed trying to sign Vazquez to a contract extension. Don’t know how far they’ve gone with it or if they’re leaning one way or another, but they’ve discussed it.

Before anyone gets excited, I don't think it means anything. Sure...we discussed it, perhaps even with Vazquez and his representation, but it doesn't mean we're getting it done or we're seriously considering it. Kind of feel like this is one of those 'at least dip your toe in to see how cold the pool is' things.

[wordslayer©]

As a big proponent of keeping Vasquez, this pleases me to hear. I HOPE this is true and that he can get an extension done. And then if they can unload a Lowe/Kawakami.......then good...very good. Other than the Lowe signing, I really like how Wren thinks.

[BarveFanHawaii]

I hope we can get an extension done as well, but I'm not getting my hopes up for it. Aside from a comment here and there that Vazquez would like to stay in Atlanta and such, there hasn't been much along the lines of taking a Hudson-esque discount to make that come to fruition.

DOB made the statement that "the Braves have at least discussed" the extension...and while that is encouraging, it doesn't mean the discussions haven't already ended when Vazquez asked for a fair market value for his ace-quality production.

[KB 34]

I'm a bit surprised to hear about Vazquez extension talks although the bottom line is he needs to take a discount to stay. I'm not sure what I'd offer him, maybe extend his salary for another 2-3 years? This means the Braves are apparently either confident they could move Lowe or would be willing to move Kawakami if something gets done. This is quite interesting.

[BarveFanHawaii]

I'm not surprised that they've discussed it at all. You can't trade him until you're 100% certain that he won't take a reasonable discount to stay. I mean, by all means....if Javy will take $11M/year to stay in Atlanta...we should probably get it done and work on trading Lowe or Kawakami.

However, I can't see how Javy being happy in Atlanta coincides with him taking that big of a yearly discount. Nothing we've seen thus far suggests he's willing to take anything but fair value for what he is worth; right now it's much closer to Lowe/Burnett range than Hudson.

That said...I feel Javy will still be traded within the month, mainly because I can't imagine him wanting to discuss an extension at what the front office will feel is an affordable salary.

[Andy G.]

I don't think the Braves have considered signing Vazquez to an extension regardless of the price. They just want it to look like they are. Wren wants other GMs to be convinced that if the right deal is not there, he is more than happy to keep Vazquez on the team. He can easily claim to have enough offense by just signing Adam Laroche and putting Jason Heyward in the majors. If the other GMs believe him, it would be much easier for Wren to get the return he's looking for.

[Wahoo]

My argument is that the Braves should hang on to their starting pitching depth until they can extract maximum value for it. It is my contention that that time will be near the 2010 trade deadline. That, however, would create a rotation problem between now and then. I was asking if anyone had any ideas on what to do during that interim period. I wasn't necessarily advocating any particular solution.

But thank you for your well reasoned and insightful question!

Problem is, sending Hanson to Gwinnett is not a solution at all, which is what I think he was getting at.

[Middle Man]

Mark Bradley (http://blogs.ajc.com/mark-bradley-blog/2009/11/10/bradleys-buzz-vazquez-could-be-going-but-i-bet-he-stays/?cxntfid=blogs_mark_bradley)

Mark Bradley at the AJC writes that he believes the Braves will keep JV, despite the many reports to the contrary. He expresses thoughts very similar to those I've posted here recently. I'm not sure the trade value of JV is quite as high as some think and finding a suitable trade partner that can actually do the Braves some good in 2010 will be very difficult, IMO.

Who will want a really good starting pitcher with one year on his contract? A team that plans to make a run in 2010, I would think. A team like the Braves, for example. What will such team trade for a one-year pitcher? They'd probably gladly give up a good prospect or two, but that obviously doesn't help the Braves in 2010. If we can find a team with the outfielder equivalent of JV (really good with one year left on a contract and/or about to become very expensive) from a team with a situation very similar to the Braves (a surplus of talent at one position, outfield in this instance) then we'll have a good trade partner. Does such a team exist? We'll see.

I predict JV will either be on the opening day roster of the Braves or Frank Wren will make a trade that most of us dislike and that won't help our chances in 2010.

Personally, I've done a complete 180 on this. I think that if the Braves are serious about winning a WS in 2010, they should be trying to find a way to both keep JV and improve the lineup.

...I understand the consensus thinking: The Braves have six starting pitchers and lack a big bopper. Ergo, Vazquez is the bait. But I think it will be tough to make a proper match. The big boppers tend to make big money, and teams that have big boppers tend to keep them because they’re hard to find. If I had to guess, I’d say Javier Vazquez will be the Opening Day starter … for the Atlanta Braves.

[BarveFanHawaii]

Mark Bradley oddly doesn't meantion in that short excerpt quoted (Sorry...need to go to work, don't have the time to read the entire article at the moment) how hard it is to find ace-quality starting pitching, regardless of what kind of contract they have.

While it's true we might get a nice package of prospects for Vazquez, it doesn't mean we still can't get creative and find a third team in need of top prospects for a rebuilding project for a slugger.

Mark Bradley just doesn't seem to think outside the box with his 'win now' strategy. I also want to see the Braves make a run at 2010, but I still feel we'll be better off with Vazquez traded for a bat...merely because I see the potential return being a difference maker. There are trades out there to be had, I can assure Bradley that. It's just a matter of Frank Wren not playing himself into a position of weakness at the trade table over the coming weeks.

[GeneGarberForPrez]

Problem is, sending Hanson to Gwinnett is not a solution at all, which is what I think he was getting at.

Is that because it would be contrary to baseball rules, or just because it wouldn't make sense as a practical matter?

What happens if all six starters are on the opening day roster, and all stay relatively healthy? While that may seem like a sarcastic question, it honestly is not. I have absolutely no idea what the Braves would do with the odd man out.

For those in favor of keeping all six (which I am one), what do you do with them?

[Dreamscape]

I think if you absolutely somehow kept all six, which you should not do, you're sending one to the bullpen to help out what could be a true weakness next year. Probably Kawakami.

In other news, the Elias Rankings were released. For Atlanta, Type A free agents include Rafael Soriano and Mike Gonzalez. Type B free agents are Garret Anderson (really?) and Adam LaRoche. Obviously, Anderson will be the one guy not offered arbitration.

[Agent-X-]

Is that because it would be contrary to baseball rules, or just because it wouldn't make sense as a practical matter?

What happens if all six starters are on the opening day roster, and all stay relatively healthy? While that may seem like a sarcastic question, it honestly is not. I have absolutely no idea what the Braves would do with the odd man out.

For those in favor of keeping all six (which I am one), what do you do with them?

Sending Hanson back to Gwinnet isn't a solution because he is arguably the best pitcher in our rotation. Sending him down would hurt now and possibly in the future...

If we went with all six starters, then the idea might be to convert one of them to relief, and unfortunately the best candidate for that would be Kawakami. Unless we want a $15 million relief pitcher in Derek Lowe. :p

[Middle Man]

... how hard it is to find ace-quality starting pitching, regardless of what kind of contract they have.

...

Can't argue with that. It cuts both ways. So you would normally have two nervous partners making a trade out of need. One thing that works against the Braves in this instance though is that we clearly need to unload a pitcher. Everyone knows that now. That's one reason I thought the Braves might string Hudson along and probably cut him loose eventually.

We have a position strength but a bargaining position weakness, especially if teams smell any panic in Atlanta - see Millwood trade, for example. I assume we're not in that positition or the Braves wouldn't have signed Hudson, but still, it's hard to imagine that the Braves will get maximum value from JV or any other pitcher unless we wait and wait and wait. Unless someone is convinced we're gonna keep all 6, I think teams will low ball us.

[Agent-X-]

Kawakami could go to the bullpen, where we obviously do need pitchers. I don't think that option can be overlooked. Wren is shrewd, and I don't put it past him to keep all 6 and deal one during the season.

[Dreamscape]

There is this belief that the Braves will go and sign an outfielder to go with the platoon of Diaz/Church. Last year, the pair netted $4M, a number that likely will rise at least $2M. But then, according to fangraphs, that is a bargain as fangraphs says Diaz was worth $11M last year by himself. Still, can the Braves afford, or are willing to, pay $5-6M for the duo?

Think about this. If Hudson signs for $9 million annually, as we all expect, the Braves, before arbitration and free agency, have invested nearly $69M (Kevin from the Office: hehehe) in nine players. Obviously, trading one of the starters is required, but you are still looking at lot of money already invested and remember, the Braves are already spending more than they probably should for backups in David Ross and Omar Infante. They are good players, no doubt, but can the Braves afford their pay?

It is going to be extremely tough to build a competitive team...i.e. bring back LaRoche or bring in another bat, bring back the LF platoon and/or add an outfielder, and somehow find some bullpen help...outside of dealing away a major salary without taking on salary in return (outside of that salary answering any of the previous problems).

[BarveFanHawaii]

Can't argue with that. It cuts both ways. So you would normally have two nervous partners making a trade out of need. One thing that works against the Braves in this instance though is that we clearly need to unload a pitcher. Everyone knows that now. That's one reason I thought the Braves might string Hudson along and probably cut him loose eventually. It does cut both ways.

On the exterior of the situation it appears that we "need" to unload a pitcher, and that very well may be true for the sake of us winning it all in 2010.

However, letting Hudson walk when he was so willing to take a huge discount to stay would have been foolish...and that's putting it nicely. Pitching is still at a premium nowadays and no team, perhaps aside from the Giants and Red Sox, can claim the depth of starting pitching we boast. Letting Hudson walk and negating any advantage you have over the rest of the league was just a bad idea.

We have a position strength but a bargaining position weakness, especially if teams smell any panic in Atlanta - see Millwood trade, for example. I assume we're not in that positition or the Braves wouldn't have signed Hudson, but still, it's hard to imagine that the Braves will get maximum value from JV or any other pitcher unless we wait and wait and wait. Unless someone is convinced we're gonna keep all 6, I think teams will low ball us.We certainly do have a position of strength, but it's only the potential position of weakness at the trade table. It'll only become a problem if Wren shops Vazquez around too frantically with the intent of unloading him and his salary. I think he's done nothing "wrong" thus far in the process. He has clearly stated through the media that he'd like to move Lowe or Kawakami...and that he'll consider moving Vazquez in the right deal, even leaking that he's discussed an extension.

Now...the Millwood situation was completely different. That was brought about by an unexpected acceptance of arbitration by Greg Maddux. The ONLY way a similar situation will occur is if both Soriano and Gonzalez accept arbitration, which leads me to believe only one of them will be offered arby (see my blog for explanation).

Wren's playing this perfectly thus far. He's put it out there that his starters could be available for the power bat we need. We'll only encounter issues with this situation if Frank Wren sits down with all the other GMs out there and says that keeping all 6 isn't feasible financially. Everything reported thus far does not lead me to believe that is the situation...nor should it be. We'll get our price...I'm fairly confident in that. Now...whether or not that return is going to make people happy is yet to be seen. Then again...why should it matter? People have been pissed about Wren's moves initially before only to be happy later many times to date.

[luvdembravos]

Then again...why should it matter? People have been pissed about Wren's moves initially before only to be happy later many times to date.

Very true...you can go to other sites (e.g., AJC) and read numerous comments where people are trashing Wren. I just don't get it. He's been very solid as a GM.

[wordslayer©]

Very true...you can go to other sites (e.g., AJC) and read numerous comments where people are trashing Wren. I just don't get it. He's been very solid as a GM.

I've noticed that most people who trash GM's usually are thinking in just the here and now. They usually are about immediate gratification and long term crtical thinking is just a myth to them.

Unless, of course, they are trashing JS.....LOL

[luvdembravos]

I've noticed that most people who trash GM's usually are thinking in just the here and now. They usually are about immediate gratification and long term crtical thinking is just a myth to them.

Unless, of course, they are trashing JS.....LOL


LOL. Trashing a narcissist is fun stuff.

[KB 34]

When the Braves dealt Millwood it was later in the offseason after a lot of teams had spent the money they could spend. Wren knows he has to deal a pitcher by opening day and can use time to his advantage. I don't see any problems moving one of the obvious pitchers. If teams try and corner him the problem is they probably really want and need a #1 starting pitcher who makes $11.5 million because if they don't make a deal one of their rivals will.

[BarveFanHawaii]

I disagree that time is on Wren's side. Time is NEVER on a GM's side when constructing a team. We witnessed the devastation that a wasted month can do to your outcome last season when he got strung along by Kevin Towers in the Jake Peavy fiasco. While the impact at the time of the Peavy discussions seemed minimal, look back on it with 20/20 vision. We lost out on acquiring Josh Willingham for relatively little. We lost out on acquiring Nick Swisher for almost nothing. We didn't land Peavy in the trade talks (and perhaps it was a good thing because he missed a whole bunch of time). Then we were forced to scramble and try to make up for it with free agent signings...leading to almost overpaying for AJ Burnett and eventually overpaying for Derek Lowe.

Frank Wren may have the luxury of having 6 starting pitchers, all of which could easily be in top 3's in most rotations around the majors, but he certainly can't sit and wait for things to come to him. Nor can he rush things and exodus one without properly playing the game.

It sounds contradictory for me to say we'll get value for Vazquez...then to say that Frank Wren has to do it fairly quickly, but it's a fine balance I'm speaking of. Frank Wren has to market Vazquez as a cheaper and less-risky alternative to guys like Roy Halladay on the trade block and John Lackey on the free agent market...and it's not hard to do based on Halladay's perceived value to the Blue Jays and John Lackey's recent injury history. That alone should create a nice market for Vazquez despite the no-trade clause to the western division teams. Sure...they can play the waiting game on us, but someone always hiccups and it's Wren's job to offer that GM a cup of water when it happens. Kevin Towers missed his when we made the top offer for Peavy...Wren will just have to learn from observation and not miss his chance to hand out that cup of water when his time comes.

[The Rap]

I can't understand anyone bashing Wren. He has turned around this team much faster than I thought even possible. I still believe that Lowe can be dealt because the Yankees will want him to be a #4 or #5 with Joba going to the bullpen to set up Mariano. Something else I read today is that the Reds will be unloading salary and have two starters who are being overpaid to the tune of 12.5 mil a year and they are Harang and Arroyo. It also said they might be willing to deal Votto but the other team has to take one of the two pitchers I cited. How about Lowe and Freeman for Arroyo and Votto?

[luvdembravos]

It also said they might be willing to deal Votto but the other team has to take one of the two pitchers I cited. How about Lowe and Freeman for Arroyo and Votto?

The Reds are trying to dump salary so why would they want Lowe?

[BarveFanHawaii]

It also said they might be willing to deal Votto but the other team has to take one of the two pitchers I cited.

The latter portion of this suggestion was covered by luvdem, so I'll pass on that.

But the piece I've selected was also shot down by Walt Jocketty. When he was asked about the possibility of trading Votto, he said verbatim "Oh God, no" (http://cincinnati.com/blogs/reds/2009/11/11/reds-arent-in-a-fire-sale-mode-yet-at-least/).

[BarveFanHawaii]

I still believe that Lowe can be dealt because the Yankees will want him to be a #4 or #5 with Joba going to the bullpen to set up Mariano.I agree with you that the Yankees could use and want Lowe, however, he still isn't Plan A for them. If they are going to take on a $15M salary....they probably would much rather take the money (and keep the minimal amount of players they'd have to give up) and throw the dollars at John Lackey first.

Even if Lackey were to leave them hanging, I can't see why they wouldn't try and make a run at Roy Halladay with Phil Hughes and/or Joba Chamberlain.

Derek Lowe has to be at least Plan C for them...if not lower down the list of priorities.

I, for one, am not convinced they'll get around to us quickly enough to matter. We can't wait for them to exhaust their options, nor should we. We'll give them an early chance to take Lowe, if they do...great, but it won't be for anything of value; best we may get is a reliever not named Robertson/Hughes/Joba/Mariano, which would probably be ok for a salary dump.

[Hobbes]

There is talk up here about the Phillies once again showing interest in Halladay. I don't know how serious that interest is, but I don't like the idea of the Phillies adding him.

[KB 34]

I disagree that time is on Wren's side. Time is NEVER on a GM's side when constructing a team. We witnessed the devastation that a wasted month can do to your outcome last season when he got strung along by Kevin Towers in the Jake Peavy fiasco. While the impact at the time of the Peavy discussions seemed minimal, look back on it with 20/20 vision. We lost out on acquiring Josh Willingham for relatively little. We lost out on acquiring Nick Swisher for almost nothing. We didn't land Peavy in the trade talks (and perhaps it was a good thing because he missed a whole bunch of time). Then we were forced to scramble and try to make up for it with free agent signings...leading to almost overpaying for AJ Burnett and eventually overpaying for Derek Lowe.

Frank Wren may have the luxury of having 6 starting pitchers, all of which could easily be in top 3's in most rotations around the majors, but he certainly can't sit and wait for things to come to him. Nor can he rush things and exodus one without properly playing the game.

It sounds contradictory for me to say we'll get value for Vazquez...then to say that Frank Wren has to do it fairly quickly, but it's a fine balance I'm speaking of. Frank Wren has to market Vazquez as a cheaper and less-risky alternative to guys like Roy Halladay on the trade block and John Lackey on the free agent market...and it's not hard to do based on Halladay's perceived value to the Blue Jays and John Lackey's recent injury history. That alone should create a nice market for Vazquez despite the no-trade clause to the western division teams. Sure...they can play the waiting game on us, but someone always hiccups and it's Wren's job to offer that GM a cup of water when it happens. Kevin Towers missed his when we made the top offer for Peavy...Wren will just have to learn from observation and not miss his chance to hand out that cup of water when his time comes.
He has time to make a move, but not to fiddle around with a deal that isn't going to happen for over a month. While everyone remembers the Peavy disaster, what about Renteria? Wren dealt him early in the offseason and got back quite the return. The key is going to be looking at the options and getting a good deal completed in a reasonable amount of time. If Wren has improved and learned lessons from last offseason that shouldn't be a problem.

[BarveFanHawaii]

He has time to make a move, but not to fiddle around with a deal that isn't going to happen for over a month.Precisely what I was trying to say.

This is the biggest reason why we can't wait around and wait for someone to come around to the idea of taking on Derek Lowe's contract, because he is clearly not anyone's Plan A. Paying to rid of him quickly for little return resolves very little as well.

Wren needs to make the move before the hot stove gets fully heated, but he can't wait for the water to be boiling over either.

[luvdembravos]

Nothing new here (http://msn.foxsports.com/mlb/story/10357594) but I'm not really digging any of these second tier options unless we can get them for almost nothing.

[HaRdCoReBrAvEsFaN]

http://blogs.ajc.com/atlanta-braves-blog/2009/11/10/braves-explore-options-during-gm-meetings/comment-page-13/#comment-346777

it's offical...3 years around 9 mill per with an option for 2013

[CanadaBravesFan]

Thats a great contract for us. If he comes back to be a top 2 guy in rotation, we have a steal! Add to that, he really wants to be here. If we can just add a bat, this team can take it all.

[Lauren T.]

http://www.momsnetwork.com/postcards/images/hdance.gif

[Middle Man]

A top 4 of Vázquez, Jurrjens, Hanson and Hudson could be pretty spectacular. It sure would be nice to keep that group together for a year and see what happens. I'll be seriously bummed if we end up trading Vázquez for a good, not great, OFer. Good outfielders are pretty easily obtained without trading away your ace.

Changing the topic, I can't find it now, but DOB in his blog says that rumors about the Braves trading for Uggla to play LF should be taken seriously, or something like that. Supposedly there were some clubhouse issues between Uggla and HR and supposedly Fredi loves KJ, so .... maybe there's something to be worked out there. I have no idea if Uggla can play LF but i guess it wouldn't be mentioned if he wasn't at least as good as the slug.

[Agent-X-]

Am I wrong to feel like we're just needlessly spinning our wheels in attempting to add t our outfield? The real need is over at 1B depending on whether we retain Laroche. We already have a guy who needs to fill an OF spot in Heyward... If you look at the rest of the positions, 1B is the most logical spot to fill with a potential big bopper.

I guess I don't view offense as a dire need as much as others. The bullpen would be my next big concern after 1B.

[The Rap]

The Reds are trying to dump salary so why would they want Lowe?

'twas a joke my friend.

[Middle Man]

Am I wrong to feel like we're just needlessly spinning our wheels in attempting to add t our outfield? The real need is over at 1B depending on whether we retain Laroche. We already have a guy who needs to fill an OF spot in Heyward... If you look at the rest of the positions, 1B is the most logical spot to fill with a potential big bopper.

I guess I don't view offense as a dire need as much as others. The bullpen would be my next big concern after 1B.

I'm pretty sure we're not going to get the right-handed slugger for the OF that folks on here want. I tend to agree that it's not necessarily critical in order for the Braves to compete in 2010. In my mind, Heyward should already be penciled in for RF. So we currently have Heyward, Diaz and McLouth. That's a heck of lot better starting point than we had last year.

I know offense was a weakness at times in 2009, but we're already in better shape for 2010 than we were last year, assuming health and assuming we re-sign LaRoche or go out and get a 1B of similar or better ability.

We had 1500 at bats last season from guys named Francoeur, Kotchman, Johnson, Shafer, Diory H., Norton, Conrad, Blanco and Gorecki. I think we're already in better shape than that.

[The Rap]

Phils might be going after Adrian Beltre to replace Feliz. If we dump Lowe we should go after Bay but I still retain my strong belief that we need to get Billy Wagner.

[luvdembravos]

The Reds are trying to dump salary so why would they want Lowe?

'twas a joke my friend.


If you say so buddy ;):no:

[luvdembravos]

We had 1500 at bats last season from guys named Francoeur, Kotchman, Johnson, Shafer, Diory H., Norton, Conrad, Blanco and Gorecki. I think we're already in better shape than that.

Really? :eek: What a waste of perfectly good Louisville Sluggers.

[Middle Man]

Really? :eek: What a waste of perfectly good Louisville Sluggers.

Well, upon recount, it's closer to 1400 at bats. But I didn't even include the 500 at bats from the slug. Of all those guys mentioned, only Kotchman (.764) and the slug (.705) had an OPS above .700 - and those are the two traditional power positions. Ouch. The three highest OPSs were LaRoche, Ross and Diaz - all part-timers/temp/semi-platoon guys. It was a weird year for the Braves offensively.

[Middle Man]

FYi, there were 8 braves that ended the season with an OPS above .800.



Tim Hudson 1.012 (haha)
Adam LaRoche .957 (Post-trade numbers only)
David Ross .888 (hit waaaay better against righties for some reason - for his career, not much difference)
Matt Diaz .878 (his numbers were waaay better against lefties, as they have been most of his career)
Brian McCann .834 (his numbers were waaay better against righties, much bigger difference than other years)
Martín Prado .822
Chipper Jones .818 (lowest since his rookie year)
Yunel Escobar .812

[Agent-X-]

I'm pretty sure we're not going to get the right-handed slugger for the OF that folks on here want. I tend to agree that it's not necessarily critical in order for the Braves to compete in 2010. In my mind, Heyward should already be penciled in for RF. So we currently have Heyward, Diaz and McLouth. That's a heck of lot better starting point than we had last year.

I know offense was a weakness at times in 2009, but we're already in better shape for 2010 than we were last year, assuming health and assuming we re-sign LaRoche or go out and get a 1B of similar or better ability.

We had 1500 at bats last season from guys named Francoeur, Kotchman, Johnson, Shafer, Diory H., Norton, Conrad, Blanco and Gorecki. I think we're already in better shape than that.

This alone is why I think outfield is not the place to get a big bat. Heyward will be taking that spot this upcoming year, most likely. If he misses that ETA, then the next year for sure or something has gone severely wrong.

I would rather we focus our effort and resources on a good fix for first base. Even Freeman is not a sure thing. If we could get a significant bat at 1B, then maybe Freeman could be traded for a 3B down the road. We have trade pieces. They need to fill needs not being filled by someone else.

[Chris_Moderato]

...but I still retain my strong belief that we need to get Billy Wagner.

Indeed. You've made that abundantly clear. Until and unless something changes in the situation with Billy Wagner vis-à-vis the Braves, please rest assured we get your point, and please stop reiterating it.

Thank you, and good night.

[-Dr. Brave-]

Indeed. You've made that abundantly clear. Until and unless something changes in the situation with Billy Wagner vis-à-vis the Braves, please rest assured we get your point, and please stop reiterating it.

Thank you, and good night.

Never mind the fact that Wagner will likely be more expensive than Gonzalez and Soriano and a bigger health risk as well.

[luvdembravos]

I just have a gut feeling that this year's Hot Stove season isn't going to be so hot for the Braves.

[The Rap]

Never mind the fact that Wagner will likely be more expensive than Gonzalez and Soriano and a bigger health risk as well.

Bigger risk than Soriano? No way. BTW, Chris, your comment about my Wagner comment shows how you are following me around because the subject is so insignificant.

[BarveFanHawaii]

A top 4 of Vázquez, Jurrjens, Hanson and Hudson could be pretty spectacular. It sure would be nice to keep that group together for a year and see what happens. I'll be seriously bummed if we end up trading Vázquez for a good, not great, OFer. Good outfielders are pretty easily obtained without trading away your ace.Would be interesting, indeed. Alas...it's probably not the best way to complete the 25-man roster, and I'm not expecting it to go down that way. I'm one to assess the risk of my heart being broken...and I've accepted that Javier Vazquez will be traded. However, I just don't see him being traded for an outfielder. Makes zero sense. He'll be traded for a 1B...and Freddie Freeman might be shipped off as well in that deal or in a subsequent deal.

I'm not a fan of Freddie Freeman's yet...and I still think the future of 1B is either not with the organization or it is still in A-ball or lower.

Changing the topic, I can't find it now, but DOB in his blog says that rumors about the Braves trading for Uggla to play LF should be taken seriously, or something like that. Supposedly there were some clubhouse issues between Uggla and HR and supposedly Fredi loves KJ, so .... maybe there's something to be worked out there. I have no idea if Uggla can play LF but i guess it wouldn't be mentioned if he wasn't at least as good as the slug.I did see that as well. Honestly, DOB has said things like this in the past (seemingly to stand out), and has gotten burned for it. Then again....he's been right on a few things too. I'm not sure how I can assume this, but I have a feeling he's just blowing smoke over a concept that is less likely just so he can be the one to say "I told you so" if it really does happen. If it doesn't happen, he can always fall back on "Well...it was only a rumor, you know".

That aside, it wouldn't be the worst idea...though, I'm not sure how Kelly Johnson could be perceived as fair return on Uggla. I know some of us value him, but the fact is his value is at it's lowest...and the Marlins could probably milk Uggla for more than Johnson, an arbitration eligible non-tender candidate. Could be a fit, but I'm not banking on it.

As for Kelly J...I'd actually be satisfied if we were able to trade him at all. There are easily better options available on the free agent market that doesn't cost players in trade. I'd expect us to be pigeon-holed into non-tendering Kelly before we are able to unload him.

[BarveFanHawaii]

Phils might be going after Adrian Beltre to replace Feliz. If we dump Lowe we should go after Bay but I still retain my strong belief that we need to get Billy Wagner.lol...this just reads strangely. I'm not sure how the three thoughts tie together, or if they are meant to tie together at all.

Phils will be in on every free agent 3B...and even in the trade market if things start going awry in free agency. I'm not surprised they're already being linked to Beltre.

If we dump Lowe, I can imagine us going after Bay...but I still feel we won't be making any major signings, even if Lowe's salary is purged. The money saved in a potential Lowe deal will be spread amongst LaRoche, a stopgag for RF and a closer.

Which leads into the closer discussion. I'm not going to disagree that Wagner can still bring it, nor will I disagree that the vacant closer role in Atlanta seems like a good fit. What I will contend is that Wagner is AS big a risk as Soriano in health. The thing to keep in mind is that it's not a given that we will be receiving draft pick compensation from Soriano and/or Gonzalez, because it may occur that only one is offered arbitration (and that person may accept it). Signing Wagner will cost us our first rounder in all likelihood....and if arbitration is accepted by the other reliever(s) offered it, we will be forced to eventually trade Vazquez as well (for nothing, might I add).

It's one hell of a complicated situation that is hard to predict, but the progress or lack thereof in talks with Soriano or (more likely) Gonzalez will dictate whether we seriously pursue Wagner. I have a feeling that Wagner will only be signed at a cost of a first round pick if we are guaranteed to receive compensation from one of the previous late-inning crew's departure.

[Andy G.]

BTW, Chris, your comment about my Wagner comment shows how you are following me around because the subject is so insignificant.
Rap, there's like a dozen posts on these forums every day. Nobody is following you around. If you post something, every regular at this site is probably reading it, because let's face it, there aren't that many of us at the moment.

Everybody here knows you want the Braves to sign Billy Wagner. We don't have to follow you around to know that.

[Chris_Moderato]

Bigger risk than Soriano? No way. BTW, Chris, your comment about my Wagner comment shows how you are following me around because the subject is so insignificant.

What NOT to do:

Post the same idea/theory over and over again.


Resolution: Pick a spot, state your opinion, and move on.


Forum Rules (http://www.chopnation.com/boards/showthread.php?t=5)

[BigWorm]

I think the Braves should sign Ken Griffey Jr.
Too soon?

[BigWorm]

I think the Braves should sign Ken Griffey Jr.
Too soon?

[luvdembravos]

I think the Braves should sign Ken Griffey Jr.
Too soon?


Too late. He signed a one year extension with the Mariners on Wednesday.

[Flying Spaghetti Monster]

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2009/11/dodgers-discussing-javier-vazquez-luis-castillo.html

JiM Bowden says the Dodgers and Braves are discussing a JV trade. Obviously JV has the no trade clause for a reason. Don't really see how we match up, since we need a slugger and Either and Kemp are too young and cost controlled to get for JV. Loney is just a glorified Kotchman. Probably just BS, but who knows.

[luvdembravos]

JiM Bowden says the Dodgers and Braves are discussing a JV trade. Obviously JV has the no trade clause for a reason. Don't really see how we match up, since we need a slugger and Either and Kemp are too young and cost controlled to get for JV. Loney is just a glorified Kotchman. Probably just BS, but who knows.

The source is Jim Bowden so one has to wonder ... Bowden was probably drunk.

[FrankEC]

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2009/11/dodgers-discussing-javier-vazquez-luis-castillo.html

JiM Bowden says the Dodgers and Braves are discussing a JV trade. Obviously JV has the no trade clause for a reason. Don't really see how we match up, since we need a slugger and Either and Kemp are too young and cost controlled to get for JV. Loney is just a glorified Kotchman. Probably just BS, but who knows.

Yeah, if we are truly going after a right handed bat, I don't see anybody on the Dodger's roster who fits the bill. Unless, FW were to somehow pull off a miracle and get them to give up Matt Kemp, but come on, Ned Colletti isn't THAT stupid...is he?

[Flying Spaghetti Monster]

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2009/11/dodgers-discussing-javier-vazquez-luis-castillo.html

Bowman has now shot it down, saying the only interested suitor for JV he knows of is Milwaukee, adding that the Brewers and Angels might also be interested in Lowe. That doesn't make much sense to me. Why trade for JV when you didn't even try to resign Lackey?

[Middle Man]

I think someone mentioned the Cuban guy with the 100 mph fastball somewhere on here. It's interesting how he planned his defection so that he'd be a free agent. He obviously had some expert advice to plan it and implement it. I suppose it's not fair to judge a guy from one article, but I wouldn't touch him with a $10 million dollar pole. If he was 18, that would be one thing, but the guy is 21. I think he has bust written all over him.

Cuban Pitcher Defects (http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20091113/ap_on_sp_ba_ne/bbo_chapman_interview;_ylt=Ato5qlVEYtMJBExzV_TZfcsLMxIF;_ylu=X3oDMTJtb WxkcjBvBGFzc2V0A2FwLzIwMDkxMTEzL2Jib19jaGFwbWFuX2ludGVydmlldwRjcG9zAzM EcG9zAzcEc2VjA3luX3RvcF9zdG9yeQRzbGsDYXBpbnRlcnZpZXdj)

...He showed a raw talent at the WBC, where he was 0-1 with a 5.68 ERA over two appearances. He struck out eight but walked four in 6 1-3 innings, allowing four runs and six hits.

While his stats were mediocre, he fastball impressed. He says he also throws a curveball, slider, changeup and splitter.

"My best pitch is my fastball," he said confidently. "It's probably the most difficult pitch to hit. In my case, batters have very little reaction time."

Yet, he knows there is work to be done.

"I feel that I need to improve a bit my control, but not so in the execution of the pitches," he said. "I feel that I have sufficient repertoire to pitch in the major leagues. I don't foresee problems to play in the major leagues." ...

[The Rap]

Rap, there's like a dozen posts on these forums every day. Nobody is following you around. If you post something, every regular at this site is probably reading it, because let's face it, there aren't that many of us at the moment.

Everybody here knows you want the Braves to sign Billy Wagner. We don't have to follow you around to know that.

Andy, I understand where you are coming from. But my comments regarding being followed were not based on just Wagner but a long running complaint.

[BarveFanHawaii]

Mark Bowman expects Ryan Church to be non-tendered next month...for those who care. He also does the due diligence in saying that Heyward could still earn the starting job in spring. However, I think the fact Bowman goes on to suggest the Braves will likely look for a veteran outfielder is telling that Heyward will start the year in Gwinnett.

At least he mentions we will use any savings we get from a Lowe or Vazquez trade to fill our other needs at 1B or in the bullpen.

http://atlanta.braves.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20091113&content_id=7664132&vkey=news_atl&fext=.jsp&c_id=atl

EDIT: I should also say Bowman goes on to speculate we could construct a deal with the Brewers to return Corey Hart as a short term fix. I giggle, but I wouldn't rule it out....as long as Hart comes along with a guy like Gamel who we can either keep or turn around in a trade to land more of a return from Vazquez.

[KB 34]

I'd love to buy Hart and Villanueva low from the Brewers. Villanueva has been the BC style whipping boy in the bullpen for the Brewers, and Hart could be a legitimate outfielder.

So the Yankees don't want Lowe and I don't blame them. It does look like Vazquez will be the one dealt.

Non-tendering Church isn't a bad move considering he'll make a nice amount of money and isn't good. The Braves can find a better use for the money.

Sorry Bowman, Diaz didn't prove he could be an everyday starter to me last season, in fact, let me go a step further. If he enters 2010 as an everyday starter (I guess I could potentially overlook it if he's a temporary short term starter for Heyward) I'll know to give up on the season before it begans like I did last season. If he's a utility outfielder things are looking good with the outfield as he does excellent in limited exposure.

[barvos4evr]

I just noticed that Andruw hit 17 HR's for the Rangers in only like 280 AB's, of course his OBP was .323......

He's a free agent I think and I wouldn't be surprised if he ended up as our cheap stopgap to fill in RF before Heyward gets that June call. If that happened I wouldn't be horrified at it.

[BarveFanHawaii]

I would be horrified if Andruw was our RF stopgag.

In 2009, .199, .294, .411 line away from Arlington. .643 OPS after the allstar break.

We could do much worse....and in the same light, we could probably do much better as well.

[Andy G.]

Sorry Bowman, Diaz didn't prove he could be an everyday starter to me last season, in fact, let me go a step further. If he enters 2010 as an everyday starter (I guess I could potentially overlook it if he's a temporary short term starter for Heyward) I'll know to give up on the season before it begans like I did last season. If he's a utility outfielder things are looking good with the outfield as he does excellent in limited exposure.
I have to disagree KB. I used to think Diaz was a lucky bastard back in '06 and '07. I didn't think there was anyway he'd be a able to sustain a .330 batting average after the league had gotten to know him, and his IsoOBP being around .030 for both seasons as well as his IsoSLG being less than impressive, I thought he'd end up a singles hitter with very little value.

I'm happily eating crow now. He proved last year he doesn't need to hit .330 to be productive. His IsoOBP was .077 last year and his IsoSLG was the highest it's ever been at .175. He had 371 at bats last year and put up an OPS of .878.

For his career(1280 at bats) he's got an .817 OPS. His only bad season was '08, and he only played in 43 games before being hurt. You can't take much from 43 games, especially when he's surrounded that season with three very good ones.

In the other three seasons with the Braves, he's hit .326 with a .364 OBP and a .487 SLG. That's an OPS of .851. I think it's time that we all recognize Matt Diaz as a legitimate ball player capable of being an every day player. If '08 was an indication of the type of player he really is, he wouldn't have put up the numbers he did in '09.

[BigWorm]

Let the Matt Diaz propaganda begin!!!!

[Hobbes]

I don't disagree that Diaz is a legitimate player, but he really is best-suited to be a pure platoon player than an everyday player.

[Gman]

I have to disagree KB. I used to think Diaz was a lucky bastard back in '06 and '07. I didn't think there was anyway he'd be a able to sustain a .330 batting average after the league had gotten to know him, and his IsoOBP being around .30 for both seasons as well as his IsoSLG being less than impressive, I thought he'd end up a singles hitter with very little value.

I'm happily eating crow now. He proved last year he doesn't need to hit .330 to be productive. His IsoOBP was .77 last year and his IsoSLG was the highest it's ever been at .175. He had 371 at bats last year and put up an OPS of .878.

For his career(1280 at bats) he's got an .817 OPS. His only bad season was '08, and he only played in 43 games before being hurt. You can't take much from 43 games, especially when he's surrounded that season with three very good ones.

In the other three seasons with the Braves, he's hit .326 with a .364 OBP and a .487 SLG. That's an OPS of .851. I think it's time that we all recognize Matt Diaz as a legitimate ball player capable of being an every day player. If '08 was an indication of the type of player he really is, he wouldn't have put up the numbers he did in '09.

Great post Andy. Couldn't agree with you more. You'd think after 1300 major league at bats posting a .310 bavg and .817 OPS he'd have a little more support as someone who could be much more than a platoon player. Those numbers weren't all accumulated against just lefties. He struggled with his first chance to shake the platoon label last year but he also never got a chance to right himself due to the injury. I personally don't think he'll struggle if he gets the chance again. I'd love to see him get that shot. I think he's ready for it. Plus he absolutely rakes the teams in the NL East which says a lot about him not being a guy who struggles when he gets over-exposed.

[Middle Man]

Not sure if it's already been mentioned, but i read the other day that Mike González had switched to Boras. I wonder if that changes the Braves' plans any.

[Lauren T.]

I suppose we can report new acquisitions in this thread? :) I was told today that KJ's wife had their first baby, and his name is Cole. Haven't found it in the media anywhere, but...that's what I heard.

[BarveFanHawaii]

Just a heads up for the people who have been actively having discussions in this thread. Your posts were not deleted, they were simply moved over to the 'Armchair GM' thread for future discussions.

This thread from here on will be used more for legitimate off-season news/rumors/transactions.

[luvdembravos]

I suppose we can report new acquisitions in this thread? :) I was told today that KJ's wife had their first baby, and his name is Cole. Haven't found it in the media anywhere, but...that's what I heard.


Finally some production out of KJ. Congrats.

[Dreamscape]

Great post Andy. Couldn't agree with you more. You'd think after 1300 major league at bats posting a .310 bavg and .817 OPS he'd have a little more support as someone who could be much more than a platoon player. Those numbers weren't all accumulated against just lefties.
No and yes. Career vs. LHP, Diaz is an impressive .347 hitter with an amazing .921 OPS. Against righties, though, he's a pedestrian .276 hitter with a .722 OPS. If you take the three year split, those numbers do not improve. In fact, they get worse because of the 2008's crapfest that included a .356 OPS aganst righties (which, granted, is a small sample).

Diaz is a good platoon player, but he simply does not hit righties well enough to warrant full-time action. I think he would't be as bad as he was in 2008 if he got another shot at being an every-day player, but he would be stretched greatly and the Braves would suffer.

[Hobbes]

What also makes Diaz a good platoon option is the fact that he is so good off the bench. He's a very good pinch hitter for the days he isn't starting.

[Hobbes]

Apparently Boras is trying to beef up the market for free agents this offseason.

Boras-Manfred war of words an unsettling omen (http://msn.foxsports.com/mlb/story/10392772/Boras-Manfred-war-of-words-an-unsettling-omen)

This snippet was interesting for Braves fans:

"The Atlanta Braves are No. 12," Boras said. "Their records are public. They're (owned by) Liberty Media. They're making $180 million. Their payroll is what? Around $100 million. Then you add $30 million (in expenses) for administration, the minor leagues, the draft, other things. So they're pocketing $50 million a year."

John Schuerholz, the Braves' club president and former general manager, responded, "This is absolutely absurd. We'd like to see those numbers."

[wordslayer©]

I'm probably the only guy, other than the players, that actually loves Boras.

I love how he busts the owners out and calls them out with their slick accounting and spinning.

It's rare in life that you ever have a business actually stand up and say, "he11 yeah....we are making money."

For years and years players were paid as little as possible while owners got filthy rich. It gives me delight to see the owners cry when they have to part with some of their money.

[BarveFanHawaii]

As the days have gone by, I've become more comfortable with the idea of offering both Soriano and Gonzalez arbitration to ensure we can comp some draft picks if they were to leave. At first, I felt almost certain Gonzalez was going to accept an arbitration offer, but with news out that Scott Boras is now his agent, I'm wondering if Boras would even advise him that accepting arby would be a good career choice.

As for Soriano...like I've always suspected, Mark Bowman says the market should be pretty good for him and he'll likely find his multiyear big money contract.

That said, I'd be comfortable going out to sign a Type A closer and forfeit our first round pick...as long as it were a guarantee that Gonzalez and Soriano were not going to accept offers and were going to sign elsewhere; a net gain of 3 draft picks within the first 50-70 picks in exchange for our 1 first rounder.

EDIT: Of course...I wouldn't be hurt if we found a way to keep one of our incumbent firemen. Wouldn't be the worst outcome.

All in all, I'm not at all worried about the closer situation. There are more closers available on the market than there are closer roles vacant around the league. With teams deciding to go cheaper, younger, less-risky, there are bound to be some good bargains that are worth the money and risk they will come for. We'll have a strong bullpen once again, IMO....

...now concern back to the offense.

[Hobbes]

For years and years players were paid as little as possible while owners got filthy rich. It gives me delight to see the owners cry when they have to part with some of their money.
The problem isn't that they should be giving that money to the players, but rather that they shouldn't be making that much money. How about charging the fans less for tickets and concessions/merchandise? The owners are going to continue to make their money, and if that results in having to pay more to players they will just raise prices to the fans to maintain their profit margins.

While collusion is overly beneficial for the owners, it is also good for the fans. Professional baseball does not work in the same economic fashion as other business industries, and the same free-market rules don't work.

[Middle Man]

The problem isn't that they should be giving that money to the players, but rather that they shouldn't be making that much money. How about charging the fans less for tickets and concessions/merchandise? ...

Amen, Hobbes. There's no doubt that the owners took advantage of the players for many years, but at this point, I'm more concerned about the accessibility of the game to the average fan than I am about the players. Free agency and professional representation have taken care of the players' needs quite well in recent years.

I'd be in favor of throwing open the books to the public and seeing what's going on. I can certainly understand why the owners don't want to do that, but most of these same owners are all too quick to demand public subsidies of some sort - sweet stadium deals, subsidized rent, tax breaks, etc.

Let's shed some light on the whole operation so we can see which owners are shafting the fans while whining about salaries and so forth.

[Andy G.]

No and yes. Career vs. LHP, Diaz is an impressive .347 hitter with an amazing .921 OPS. Against righties, though, he's a pedestrian .276 hitter with a .722 OPS. If you take the three year split, those numbers do not improve. In fact, they get worse because of the 2008's crapfest that included a .356 OPS aganst righties (which, granted, is a small sample).

Diaz is a good platoon player, but he simply does not hit righties well enough to warrant full-time action. I think he would't be as bad as he was in 2008 if he got another shot at being an every-day player, but he would be stretched greatly and the Braves would suffer.
I don't believe that the numbers really suggest that Diaz can't hit righties well. In '04, '05 and '08, Diaz only had 6, 35 and 63 at bats against righties. Those years don't tell us anything.

In '06 and '07, Diaz hit .358 and .318 against righties. This past season, he hit just .255 against them. Here's a more detailed look at his numbers in those years.
AB AVG OBP SLG OPS
2006 - 151 .358 .400 .477 .877
2007 - 170 .318 .350 .406 .756
2008 - 235 .255 .349 .400 .750

Total - 565 .297 .341 .409 .750

Now, it's obvious that the .722 OPS number you posted is misleading. Two out of three years he was right around the .750 mark, and the total of all there seasons is right there as well. He's at least that good, and a closer look at the numbers will show that he may be much better than that.

As for batting average, we have two extremes and one number that not only rests right in the middle of them, it's also somewhat similar to his average in all three years combined. I don't have any doubt that Matt Diaz can hit .300 against righties. I think his average against them in '09 is far lower than it will be if/when he is given an every day role.

Diaz really improved his game in '09, and his increase in power is the biggest case for him to be playing every day in 2010. As I've stated, it's clear that he can hit .300 against righties. The reason that batting average doesn't translate into a higher OPS is because before last season, he wasn't hitting for much power against them. His IsoSLG in '06 was .116. The next year it was just .088, but last season we saw him hit for more power while getting more consistent at bats against right handed pitcher. His IsoSLG against righties last year was .145.

The guy that you depicted as only being able to post a .722 OPS against righties is actually much better than that. He's a .300 hitter with increasing plate discipline and more power than we previously knew of. There's no doubt that he can hit righties at a higher OPS than .722. In fact, even if his power drops off a bit next year, just bringing his batting average back up to where it belongs at .300 will push his OPS to about the .800 mark. He's not a just singles machine. He gets on base and he can hit the gaps.

Until given a real chance to prove himself, we can not disregard the fact that every time Matt Diaz has gotten more at bats, his numbers have improved. For some reason he hit only .255 against righties last year. I doubt that will happen again. If there's an extremely affordable lefty out there who will hit right handed pitchers better than Diaz, then by all means let's platoon them. Platoons are often very smart and are underrated by fans. But, if this guy isn't super cheap and doesn't hit righties better than Diaz, it will be a waste of funds and a waste of talent while Matt Diaz sits on the bench.

[wordslayer©]

Let's shed some light on the whole operation so we can see which owners are shafting the fans while whining about salaries and so forth.

How has a fan been shafted? If a fan has been shafted, then that fan has chosen to be shafted.

[wordslayer©]

Professional baseball does not work in the same economic fashion as other business industries, and the same free-market rules don't work.

I think you are as busy savvy as any one out there. Why do you think free market rules don't work for baseball as opposed to other businesses?

[Agent-X-]

Amen, Hobbes. There's no doubt that the owners took advantage of the players for many years, but at this point, I'm more concerned about the accessibility of the game to the average fan than I am about the players. Free agency and professional representation have taken care of the players' needs quite well in recent years.

I'd be in favor of throwing open the books to the public and seeing what's going on. I can certainly understand why the owners don't want to do that, but most of these same owners are all too quick to demand public subsidies of some sort - sweet stadium deals, subsidized rent, tax breaks, etc.

Let's shed some light on the whole operation so we can see which owners are shafting the fans while whining about salaries and so forth.

Wholeheartedly agree with this. It's becoming less friendly for the average fan to invest in. It's about time we fully understand where the money is going, especially if tax payer dollars are being leveraged in keeping a team in a certain city. Not only do they get sweet deals, they have also managed to jack the prices up on just watching the games over a broadcast (MLB.tv, Sunday Ticket)--it has gotten pretty ridiculous as I have no intention of paying over $200 a year to watch the Braves.

Free market capitalism or extortion? I think it's time we know the financial situation from the inside out.

[wordslayer©]

Here is a pretty good article on the actual facts of how salaries and ticket pricing work. An owner gets what he can out of his tickets only because fans pay it.

http://www.uwp.edu/departments/economics/cee/teaching_resources/lesson03.html

[Middle Man]

How has a fan been shafted? If a fan has been shafted, then that fan has chosen to be shafted.


I was really using the word fan in a more general sense, as opposed to the individual fan who makes a decision to shell out $50 for a ticket. A fan base that invests its emotional capital on a team, that puts its faith in an owner to invest available resources into the team (after making a reasonable profit of course), that names its dog Chipper, etc., might very well feel shafted after finding out the financial details of its favorite team.

[The Rap]

Latest word I am hearing in NY is that ther Yanks are considering going after both Soriano and Gonzales and using Hugehs and Joba as starters.

[BarveFanHawaii]

Some links I saw at work but didn't have a chance to post up...

http://msn.foxsports.com/mlb/story/10399504/Sources:-Braves-finding-it-tough-to-shop-Lowe

First one is from Ken Rosenthal.

Basically he goes into what a lot of us have already assumed here at Chop Nation. The Braves WANT to trade Derek Lowe, but they are having trouble finding willing partners to take him.

Rosenthal also suggests that a source has informed him the most serious talks we have gotten thus far are with the Brewers and the rumored name in return is Corey Hart.

He also mentions the other rumored suitor, the Angels, but goes on to say that Arte Moreno has already made it public knowledge that he only has $12M available to complete his team this winter.

Rosenthal's speculation includes the White Sox, though, he admits that we are not a good fit because Konerko (the suggested fit) has only one year left on his contract while Lowe has 3.



http://markbowman.mlblogs.com/archives/2009/11/braves_not_interested_in_hart.html

Then Bowman chimed in, in response to Rosenthal, saying that the Braves do not have interest in Corey Hart.

Bowman moves on to include the Angels and says that there is indication that the Braves would rather trade Lowe for prospects rather than trading him for one of their outfielders (I assume to rule out Juan Rivera and Gary Matthews Jr.)





Now...in response to both those reports.

I agree with Rosenthal and the rumors that the Braves are having problems finding takers for Lowe. I think it's been overly discussed and agreed upon that there is very little market for him based not only on his salary, but his age and decline in production as well.

I also like that Bowman is saying we're not interested in Hart. I'm not sure how Hart would be any better than just handing the job to Heyward (the other thing we shouldn't do).

Finally, I'm not sure the Angels will be willing to "dig" into their system for Derek Lowe. I'd imagine we'd have to take their castoff prospects if we were to trade with them. Though, prospects for Lowe to Anaheim doesn't jive with Arte Moreno's $12M offseason budget.

[Gman]

MLBTraderumors.com just referenced a Keith Law article from ESPN insiders Law on Gonzalez and Soriano (http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2009/11/keith-laws-top-50-free-agents.html). Law thinks M.Gonzalez is the top FA reliever available with Soriano just a couple notches down, and that Soriano should be looking for K-Rod money. That's multi-year 11.5mil/yr deal! :confused: I think Law's a little out of touch. The Mets have K-Rod, the Yankees have Mariano and the Bosox have Papplebon. Those are the only teams I know of who can toss 12 bills at a closer. At some point these writers and agents need to consider who the potential buyers are before they spout off estimated value. Once the Bosox, Mets and Yankees are not "in" on someone, the price drops a ton.

[Agent-X-]

I hope he's right. We need to offer them arbitration and collect our draft picks on them. :)

[BarveFanHawaii]

I think that's a little optimistic in Soriano's favor to say he should be looking for K-Rod money. Kerry Wood's $10Mish is a more acceptable figure, but I was thinking more around $9Mish/year.

As for Gonzo, I can imagine him being the most coveted. He's left-handed, in the prime of his career, further removed from Tommy John and he's a strikeout machine. He doesn't have as recent or as much an injury history as most of the other available closers and he shouldn't rake in Kerry-Wood-esque money. I originally imagined him to make Fuentes-type money, which is just under $9M/year...but towards the end adjusted into hoping the other names may look sexier and he'd have to settle for $6.5-7M/year. Maybe that won't be the case...and if so, give him the arbitration and let him leave.

And I also agree with Law that Jose Valverde should not be very high on the list of closers. The guy can be dominant and all, but he's got lingering health issues if I'm not mistaken and HE will be looking for Wood-esque money, at least.

[BarveFanHawaii]

On a smaller semi-Braves-related note, Jorge Campillo signed with the Royals today. Minor league deal and the Royals continue to be the Braves Annex.

http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20091120&content_id=7693374&vkey=news_kc&fext=.jsp&c_id=kc&partnerId=rss_kc

Wish we could've kept Campillo around for the minor league deal for middle relief depth, but I understand that the Royals probably provide him the best chance to get back to the majors if he's healthy and they can probably provide him with more a guarantee to earn some starts. I wish him luck.

[Andy G.]

I'm glad Campillo won't be pitching for the Braves again. I can't stand that guy.

[The Rap]

GMan but the Yanks, Red Sox and even the Mets can pay closers to be setup men without a hit to their compensation. The Yankees are salivating at Gonzales so it can free Hughes and Joba to focus on starting. I still stick to my belief that the Braves go after Billy Wagner. Soriano is NOT the RP you would give great guarantees to.

[Dreamscape]

Wagner is a Type A free agent. I just don't feel you give up your first round pick for a guy who needs to prove his health at the age of 38. If you didn't have to burn a first rounder, I'd say sure.

[The Rap]

The thing is this. Many do believe he proved he's healthy already based on what they saw when he pitched for the Red Sox when he came back. In addition if both Soriano and Gonzo leave what do we do? I read somewhere that it will be Brandon Lyon. If that is truly the case then count on the season being over before we even get started.

[Freddy_Ballgame]

Re: Billy Wagner, I agree with you Dream. Wags is a rather slightly built guy who has a pretty good recent history of injury, he's well past his prime, and how he got rated as a Type A is beyond me. If I went after this guy at all it would be an incentive-based "prove it" kind of deal. That said, I'm sure some club will toss caution to the wind and give him a big deal. (It's the same kind of fear/hope driven prospecting that will make a guy like Lowe appear much more palatable closer to Spring. At least Lowe has been healthy!)

[The Rap]

But if the alternative is Brandon Lyon then just pass the dice to me and I will roll for Billy Wagner. Maybe the simplest solution is to just go and be aggressive about signing Gonzales to be our closer.

[Andy G.]

BFH has stated many times that there are plenty of free agent closers this year. There are so many, in fact, that Frank Wren would have to be an idiot not to begin next season with someone capable of closing games for us.

Plus, if both Soriano and Gonzalez do leave in free agency, we'll have the funds to go out and get one of the better closers that don't go to the Yankees. I'm with Dream. I don't want the Braves to give up a first round draft pick for Billy Wagner.

[BarveFanHawaii]

BFH has stated many times that there are plenty of free agent closers this year. There are so many, in fact, that Frank Wren would have to be an idiot not to begin next season with someone capable of closing games for us.

Plus, if both Soriano and Gonzalez do leave in free agency, we'll have the funds to go out and get one of the better closers that don't go to the Yankees. I'm with Dream. I don't want the Braves to give up a first round draft pick for Billy Wagner.

I have, indeed.

While I agree with Rap that Brandon Lyon wouldn't be the best proactive solution to solving the vacancies in the bullpen, I don't agree that we will need to pay a free agent to close for us. If bidding gets out of hand, there's always the trade market and even the potential nontenders coming next month.

That said, I still can see Wagner landing in Atlanta...but like Freddy said, it will have to be for one of those incentive-laden "prove it" contracts. The way that interest appears to have taken off on Wagner, I'm thinking that won't happen.

On the topic of Wagner's health, I do somewhat agree with Rap in a sense. Wagner proved in 2009 that he can still 'toss the rock' as I like to say. However, I'm not certain he's fully proved he's capable of handling a heavy workload that Cox seems to like to place upon our late-inning go-to guys.

And finally, as Gilley said...I don't really want the Braves to give up a first rounder on Wagner either, even if we are netting 4 from Gonzalez/Soriano's departures. I'd rather take the 4 picks and use that to restock the system after we trade for a Heath Bell or what not. I've said before...that if I'm in Wren's shoes, I'd be willing to give up two picks to bring Gonzalez back (not so much Soriano) but I would not be willing to forfeit a first rounder for a closer. A difference-maker like a Holliday, definitely would sacrifice a first rounder. A starting pitcher to anchor a staff, probably. Marginal players and relievers, no way.

[Hobbes]

even if we are netting 4 from Gonzalez/Soriano's departures. I'd rather take the 4 picks and use that to restock the system after we trade for a Heath Bell or what not.
Do we have confirmation that both Soriano and Gonzalez are Type A?

[BarveFanHawaii]

Do we have confirmation that both Soriano and Gonzalez are Type A?

Yes, they are. Somehow...easily. Likewise with Wagner. It's a strange system, Elias is....but it'll benefit us if Wren doesn't go ape signing relievers this winter.

On the Type free agent note, GAnderson's a Type B as well as LaRoche.

http://i.usatoday.net/sports/baseball/Elias-rankings.pdf

PDF format may be a little confusing at first because the columns aren't exactly lined up well, but the first column on the far left indicates if the player has a Type status (A, B or nothing). The name, position and team (by city). By the fun of abbreviating city names, we are first on the list.

[Gman]

I said early on they should offer arb to both Soriano and Gonzalez and I still think it's a good move. Wren would only have to put things on hold until Dec 7th to find out if one or both accept. Even if they get caught with both accepting arb it will only hurt until Wren makes trades that get the payroll in line. If you sign a guy via arb you can trade him straight away (unlike a FA). I think that at some point during the spring or early season Lowe, Kawakami, Soriano and Gonzalez will all be very tradeable.

The only drawback to getting caught with Soriano and Gonzalez accepting arb is Wren will have to go for a real cheap patch to 1b right now. He'd also have to look to McLouth, Diaz, Heyward, and Schafer as the OF starters during spring and maybe even into april at least until he can trade one or two of the four pitchers for upgrades at both 1b and OF. Maybe they'd have to sign a guy like Tatis or Glaus as a stopgap at 1b for the early season. You're probably talking 1yr/2+mil for one of those two. As long as their making that kind of bench player money it won't hurt to have them once the real moves get made. Either would provide full-season value given they are RH hitters with some pop and can backup at 1b and 3b.

What I'm saying is, Wren doesn't have to be at budget to start the season and he doesn't have to have all his moves made. There could be some real benefits to taking this pitching surplus into the early season if needed even if he's over budget.
1. Lowe and Kawakami could build more trade value.
2. Having both Soriano and Gonzalez in the pen to start the season wouldn't be a killer.
3. If the FA market is soft like last year, some good players will be had for cheap for those who wait.

Even if both turn down arby, it'll have an affect on what teams will offer them given the draft pick they will lose, especially teams who's pick is not protected. So the Braves could still resign one of them to a multi-year deal if desired maybe for the same or less than they would get in arb. I doubt they'd both take arb. They both want to be closers.

[The Rap]

Well done but as you point out if they go to arb with both Gonzo and Soriano what will they have at first base?

[BarveFanHawaii]

The scary one to offer arbitration to is Soriano. He earned $6.1M in 2009 and an agreement outside of arbitration could pay him $9M or more....frightening to imagine what arbitration might cost us. He's the one of our two free agent relievers that I'd have concerns about accepting arbitration. I mean...he can earn big money for 2010 and hope to post big save numbers for us and catapult himself into the 2011 market when the only other free agent closers might be Brian Fuentes and Huston Street (not including Mariano Rivera who will likely stay in New York until he retires or fossilization takes it's course).

[The Rap]

Hey I would be comfortable with Gonzo as our closer as long as we get another arm or two to help out in the pen.Soriano to me is too big a risk and will probably be overpaid by the Angels or someone like that.

[Hobbes]

I'd rather have Soriano than Gonzalez.

[luvdembravos]

I'd rather have Soriano than Gonzalez.

Me too.

When Soriano brings his "A" game, he's as good as anyone but I'm never comfortable when Gonzalez is pitching. He scares the hell out of me.

[BarveFanHawaii]

For what it's worth (and I haven't been able to read the article since I'm at work), Mark Bowman reportedly suggests that he, I assume personally, would not be surprised if the Braves traded Jordan Schafer.

Honest, I think Schafer could be a good major league centerfielder, but I wouldn't be overly hurt if we used him in a package to acquire our slugger this off-season. In fact, I think making him available might make it easier to make a move for a slugger.

[BarveFanHawaii]

Regarding the relievers...

In a vacuum that doesn't consider anything but production and potential, I'd much prefer Soriano.

In a spectrum that includes risk of injury, health record and cost...the waters become much more murky.

[barvos4evr]

Ken Rosenthal is reporting that Jermain Dye is open to playing some 1b. He has also named us as a potential suitor..... interesting.

http://msn.foxsports.com/mlb/story/10357594

[luvdembravos]

In a spectrum that includes risk of injury, health record and cost...the waters become much more murky.


So true ... and that in a nutshell is why Soriano isn't worth pursuing.

[BarveFanHawaii]

Ken Rosenthal is reporting that Jermain Dye is open to playing some 1b. He has also named us as a potential suitor..... interesting.

http://msn.foxsports.com/mlb/story/10357594

It's a nice gesture for Dye to be open to a move to first base, but my question would be can he play it any better than he plays the outfield? I mean...if he can't get the footwork down and can't pick a ball out of the dirt, what's the point of a position change? May as well be a butcher on defense at a place he's more comfortable.

Seems like he's just trying to market himself to avoid an Abreu-like situation and get away from the outfield market where he is clearly not the best option available. When he joins the 1B pool, he vaults to the head of the pack alongside LaRoche.

[Andy G.]

For what it's worth (and I haven't been able to read the article since I'm at work), Mark Bowman reportedly suggests that he, I assume personally, would not be surprised if the Braves traded Jordan Schafer.

Honest, I think Schafer could be a good major league centerfielder, but I wouldn't be overly hurt if we used him in a package to acquire our slugger this off-season. In fact, I think making him available might make it easier to make a move for a slugger.
But how much value does he have compared to a year ago, and how does his value compare to where it will be if he has a good season next year? I don't like the idea of trading him now when his value is at it's lowest.

[barvos4evr]

I'm not so sure his value is at it's lowest. He had an injury that was probably the cause of his struggles and he has shown the ability to destroy minor league pitching. His glove is great as well..... I think he still falls under the heading of top tier prospect rather than a toolsy player who struggled ...... I think that's how many GM's will view him as well. I think he could be a valueable part of a trade for a big bat.

[BarveFanHawaii]

But how much value does he have compared to a year ago, and how does his value compare to where it will be if he has a good season next year? I don't like the idea of trading him now when his value is at it's lowest.
It may be the case, but it doesn't mean we HAVE to trade him.

I'm just saying that making him available might be a good idea instead of putting him on the 'no touchy' list.

If he can't be used as a primary piece of a package, we keep him and hope he rebounds well. If we can use him as a major part of a package, we do so.

I know I, of all people, like the 'sell high, buy low' theory...but I'm not at all suggesting we sell low on his potential. Either opposing GMs take Schafer for what he is (a potential-laden prospect) or we keep him.

[The Rap]

different strokes for different folks.

[Flying Spaghetti Monster]

I think Gonzalez is a much safer bet and thats why he is getting so much more attention around the league. Add to the fact that 5 of the 20 runs he gave up came in 3 games in which he was pitching his 3rd ngiht in a row and that 2.4 era is even more impressive.

Many feel Soriano dogged it the first yr of his contract, and Gonzalez never complained a bit about sharing the closer role, or being overused. If it was up to me I'd give him 3-4 Years 6 Mil and tell him hes our closer. He's as close to a sure thing as you can get. Whats our other options? A washed up Billy Wagner? or.......? How horrible will it be too waste all this great pitching if we can't get anyone out in the 9th inning. Has everyone here forgotten the day that that we were all excited as hell to get Bob Whickman?? We aren't too far away from a repeat if we fail to sign Gonzo or Soriano and go for some 38 yr old plug in and hope he and moylan can make it work somehow.

[BarveFanHawaii]

To be absolutely fair to Billy Wagner, he and Blob Thickman are two completely different types of pitchers. Wicky was a gut (literal and figuratively) and precision pitcher while Wagner is a pure power pitcher. As evidenced by his strong K/9 rate in his return from Tommy John, Wagner can still 'bring it' or whatever term you'd like to use to say he still has his "stuff".

That said, I agree that Gonzalez is well worth the money that he will probably be paid (assuming the market doesn't go totally insane over him). I'd balk at 4 years...well, only because I'd hesitate to give ANY closer a 4-year term. 3-years, perhaps. 2-years with an attainable vesting option, absolutely.

I'm not entirely worried about the bullpen. As I stated earlier and in my blog, there are a myriad of option for the Braves to go with in regards to finding a late-inning crew. Wren will find a couple of arms and I'm confident in his abilities to sort through the pile for the worthwhile ones. The bullpen, while a big problem, should still be the least of our worries as fans this offseason.

[warefreak]

What I'm saying is, Wren doesn't have to be at budget to start the season and he doesn't have to have all his moves made. There could be some real benefits to taking this pitching surplus into the early season if needed even if he's over budget.



This is why I never understood the trade where we gave away Millwood. But because of Millwood this team would never offer arbitration to both. If the team goes over budget apparently for a minute than we have to trade away players for nothing, apparently right away. This I do not understand... we had all offseason to trade Millwood and we became desperate to trade him overnight?

Offering arbitration to both and having both of them sign elsewhere to me is a best case scenario as I don't like the idea of Gonzalez (and Soriano will be too expensive). I am hoping we go for a nontender or even a player like Sheets who would be just as good as Kerry Wood was last year. That way we can receive 3 first round picks (ours + 2 others) and 2 supplementals. However if they both accept I am sure we would have another imaginary deadline to get back to budget which would result in a horribly stupid trade.

A big part of me thinks that the Braves have a VERY bright future and I think we should try to compete for the world series this year but not go for broke. We are only a few pieces away from being extremely competitive every year for perhaps... another 14 years? We should trade Javier for a Gamel & Lawrie type and take the money saved not to get a FA but to lock up players like JJ, Hanson, Escobar, McCann, etc.

[barvos4evr]

Well it looks like the Tigers are going to try and salary dump Miguel Cabrera on some one per Buster Olney on insider http://insider.espn.go.com/espn/blog/index?entryID=4684891&name=olney_buster&action=login&appRedirect=http%3a%2f%2finsider.espn.go.com%2fespn%2fblog%2findex%3fe ntryID%3d4684891%26name%3dolney_buster ( in the part you can't read he names the braves as potential sutiors)


I would love his bat at 1b, but he's owed like 126 mill over the next 6 seasons I think... so unless they take Lowe and we take Cabrera.... I just don't see it happening. But man, he's only 26 and he hits a ton!!

[BarveFanHawaii]

On Cabrera...

I've actually been waiting for someone to post it and ponder what could be. lol

Bravos4evr is basically right. He's owed a ton of money in each year from now until eternity. The thing is, the Tigers probably won't "dump" the salary in the common sense of the word. It'll still take a pretty significant package of players to get him. At this very moment, the Braves would not only have to dump Lowe, but they'd also have to probably choose not to bring in any relievers who are either free agents or arbitration eligible (basically all the closers worth their weight) and they would probably have to ignore the holes on the bench. Adding Cabrera would likely be a difference-maker on offense, but it would also severely limit our ability to make other moves this winter.

[Gman]

This is why I never understood the trade where we gave away Millwood. But because of Millwood this team would never offer arbitration to both. If the team goes over budget apparently for a minute than we have to trade away players for nothing, apparently right away. This I do not understand... we had all offseason to trade Millwood and we became desperate to trade him overnight?

Offering arbitration to both and having both of them sign elsewhere to me is a best case scenario as I don't like the idea of Gonzalez (and Soriano will be too expensive). I am hoping we go for a nontender or even a player like Sheets who would be just as good as Kerry Wood was last year. That way we can receive 3 first round picks (ours + 2 others) and 2 supplementals. However if they both accept I am sure we would have another imaginary deadline to get back to budget which would result in a horribly stupid trade.

A big part of me thinks that the Braves have a VERY bright future and I think we should try to compete for the world series this year but not go for broke. We are only a few pieces away from being extremely competitive every year for perhaps... another 14 years? We should trade Javier for a Gamel & Lawrie type and take the money saved not to get a FA but to lock up players like JJ, Hanson, Escobar, McCann, etc.

The Millwood/Maddux situation was very different. Maddux unexpected acceptance of arb put Scheurholtz 16 mil over a budget that was already spent. The faster he moved the better because other GMs knew the longer it went the more desperate JS would become.

In the Soriano/Gonzalez scenario there is some risk that both will accept but it's a long way from 100% certain. And, even if they do both accept arb Wren does not go way over budget. He just ties up most of the money he has to spend this off-season. It would restrict him from fixing OF/1b with pricey FA options like Holliday, Bay, Dye or LaRoche. He'd instead have to fix those posits through trades at some point (preferably earlier than the mid-point). In the interim he'd have to grab a some low-cost option for 1b like Tatis or Glaus and run with what he's got in the OF until the right trade emerges.

A lot of teams with playoff potential have thin or risky starting pitching. So, I think the odds are pretty good he'll find a good deal early. Lowe, Kawakami, and Schafer are all probably under-valued right now due to 2009. It wouldn't take much time for them to get their value back up where it should be.

The benefit of potentially picking up 4 early draft picks for Gonzalez and Soriano is pretty enticing. Like I said he'll know in early December if they will accept or reject arb. That gives him plenty of time to maneuver around whatever they decide. The FA and trade markets are going nowhere right now so why not risk it? Plus he's got the goods (i.e. surplus pitching) to eventually fix 1b and OF via trade at some point.

[Hobbes]

This is why I never understood the trade where we gave away Millwood. But because of Millwood this team would never offer arbitration to both. If the team goes over budget apparently for a minute than we have to trade away players for nothing, apparently right away. This I do not understand... we had all offseason to trade Millwood and we became desperate to trade him overnight?
We had different ownership at the time. Current ownership seems to be a bit more flexible and understanding of the ebb-and-flow of baseball negotiations. Additionally, Wren is at the helm (at least nominally) and not JS, so the mentality isn't the same as when the Millwood deal happened.

I think Wren will offer arb to both, and I think they'll both decline.

[Lauren T.]

Yet another reason I'm skeptical of everything out of DOB's mouth... (read from the bottom up):

http://i47.tinypic.com/24o0cqe.jpg

:banghead:

[BarveFanHawaii]

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2009/11/braves-sign-juan-abreu.html

MLBTradeRumors is saying that Ed Price of AOL FanHouse is confirming this as well.

Decent pickup on the cheap for the middle relief group to go alongside the O'Flaherty's and Valdez's and Acosta's. Depth is good and the middle relief corps is developing depth.

Now we just need two late-inning guys.

[Agent-X-]

That's a nice addition. Those are the kind of moves that build depth for the big league club. Happy about this. I was just starting to think we might not see any activity until December.

[Middle Man]

We had different ownership at the time. Current ownership seems to be a bit more flexible and understanding of the ebb-and-flow of baseball negotiations. Additionally, Wren is at the helm (at least nominally) and not JS, so the mentality isn't the same as when the Millwood deal happened.

I think Wren will offer arb to both, and I think they'll both decline.

Yeah, I agree that ownership seems to make a big difference. I always thought JS really had his hands tied in how he dealt with that. It almost seemed like JS was told to get the payroll down to $XX by the end of the year or else.

You know, JS really took a beating on here (and on our predecessor site) at times late in his tenure - sometimes from me, probably - but look how difficult it is to assemble a winning team while adding payroll, a luxury afforded to FW. Trying to win while slashing payroll, as JS had to do, is asking a lot.

[BarveFanHawaii]

So...trying to build a winning franchise while slashing payroll leads to trading half your minor league system for rentals? I don't buy that Schuerholz hands were tied by the ownership of the team. I'll concede that building a winner on a limited budget is hard, but he brought the criticism upon himself by trading cheap, retainable players for expensive players he eventually would lose to free agency. Schuerholz only knew how to operate under a huge budget. When times got tough, he showed the inability to adjust...and THAT is what got him the heat, at least in my opinion.

[BarveFanHawaii]

Back to the topic of Juan Abreu, I'm hoping that Ed Price has it wrong that we've signed Abreu to a big league deal (or that MLBTradeRumors mis-reported the big league deal). I got a chance to surf the net some here at work and I found that Abreu's control is absolutely horrid. His walk rates in the minors are all in excess of 7 per 9 innings. On a minor league deal with an invite to spring, this deal is great. It gives us a legitimate chance to see what the guy has an an entire season to try and work with him. If it's a guaranteed major league contract, we'll eventually lose him when we try to DFA him.

Either way, it's still a good pickup and it provides the middle relief group with some much needed depth and things are starting off well for the 2010 season.

[Hobbes]

So...trying to build a winning franchise while slashing payroll leads to trading half your minor league system for rentals? [snip]
Schuerholz only knew how to operate under a huge budget. When times got tough, he showed the inability to adjust...and THAT is what got him the heat, at least in my opinion.
I don't agree with that assessment. We've beat this horse before, but aside from the Teix deal he didn't consistently trade away our good minor league talent for rentals. He did dip into his minor leagues for trading fodder, which is part of its purpose, but not excessively so, IMO.

And we didn't get much of a chance to see how he operated with a small budget, because he was charged with taking a large budget to a moderate budget and that task was more difficult due to the salaries of players that existed on the team. It's unfair to say that he only knew how to operate with a huge budget.

JS wasn't perfect, but he was a much better GM than a lot of folks give him credit for.

[BarveFanHawaii]

I think of all people, I get an unfair rap on the Schuerholz hate because I was the most passionate about wanting to see a front office change.

When all is said and done, I know that Schuerholz wasn't terrible. It's just that he isn't the God many people made him out to be. For me, he was very ordinary. Any person can probably build a winner when they have a top 5 budget. You have to be completely ignorant of the team's problems to not build a winner (a la Minaya's handling of the Mets).

Schuerholz DID make a habit out of trading prospects. I know none of them panned out, but he still did it. That is NOT how you operate when your budget is shrinking. He did it with Kolb, he did it with Drew, he did it with Hampton (though it was only Spooneybarger), he did it with Hudson and he did it with Teixeira. Again...we were fortunate to have been able to trade "fodder" in most cases (especially in the Hampton/Hudson cases) but for every trade "fodder" we dealt away, we gave away a Wainright, Feliz and Andrus.

It was a crash landing to a very illustrious tenure as the GM in Atlanta.

[luvdembravos]

I got a chance to surf the net some here at work and I found that Abreu's control is absolutely horrid. His walk rates in the minors are all in excess of 7 per 9 innings.

Yikes! :eek: This is one heckuva project.

[BarveFanHawaii]

Little bit of a false alarm on the 7+ BB/9. It's more like an average of 6 BB/9 in his career.

Still a big project, though.

http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=paG03509&position=P

[KB 34]

I've always felt JS was an incredible GM who fell apart when his budget was slashed from $103 million to $80 million. His bread and butter was turning overhyped prospects into solid players. Suddenly the prospects ceased to be busts and the players he got back were sure rentals. It was time for a change because he was great in his day, but many years later it became Wren's turn.

Onto Abreu: Unless I'm missing something the highest level he's played is AA. He's a fine signing but I'm not counting on him for anything other than minor league depth at this point.

[The Rap]

I find it interesting that Schuerholz's first five years as GM are being ignored to a good extent. What is forgotten is that he changed the culture of the club from top to bottom and in all areas. The moves he made in building the 1991 team were awesome. The development of kids into stars was on that level as well. Problem is that all those young un's and the FA's we signed transformed our team into a huge salary one in quick fashion. But I also rememebr what happened rather quickly right after Ted sold the club and the budget became the holy grail to those in charge. But I also rememenr writing about the top of the food chain telling JS what his budget would be at the proverbioal last minute thus screwing up any planning and many opportunities because it was too late. The man is going into the Hall of Fame as a great General Manager and I think he deserves the accolade.

[Chris_Moderato]

I find it interesting that Schuerholz's first five years as GM are being ignored to a good extent. What is forgotten is that he changed the culture of the club from top to bottom and in all areas. The moves he made in building the 1991 team were awesome. The development of kids into stars was on that level as well. Problem is that all those young un's and the FA's we signed transformed our team into a huge salary one in quick fashion. But I also rememebr what happened rather quickly right after Ted sold the club and the budget became the holy grail to those in charge. But I also rememenr writing about the top of the food chain telling JS what his budget would be at the proverbioal last minute thus screwing up any planning and many opportunities because it was too late. The man is going into the Hall of Fame as a great General Manager and I think he deserves the accolade.

He also had the playing surface improved, which was a big thing.

[The Rap]

I agree and that is why I said he changed the team from "top to bottom." For example, he also changed the dress code if you worked in the home office. Everything he did was to make the team and anything connected to it more professional and higher class than it was before.

[Dreamscape]

Mr. Built to Win is that one guy you either can't give enough credit to...or give too much. He left the Royals in shambles through a multitude of bad trades before finding a great situation in Atlanta. Bobby Cox and the scouting department had finally cashed in on all the great draft picks to put together a wealth of young talent. Schuerholz came in and added to the puzzle, but certainly wasn't the biggest reason for the "from worst to first." With Atlanta a place-to-be, his job became a lot easier and Ted Turner's checkbook helped out a lot, too. He made a lot of good decisions, but what made Schuerholz great was the stability of having Cox and Leo with him every step of the way. Once the trio began to break up, the decisions became more mixed and the loses piled up. The three of them were far more productive together than they ever were on their own.

[The Rap]

I never said anything about him doing it all on his own. The lucky thing we had was that he and Bobby were the perfect fit.

[warefreak]

I've just seen so many boneheaded moves that were obviously sacrificing our future for the present that I grew sick of him. I totally understood that type of strategy when we had the highest payroll in the majors and we had the blank check to get whoever we wanted... but the day Turner sold us we should have adjusted and started playing to the future and hanging onto prospects.

I like what Wren has done so far but I hope never again to see MLB caliber prospects traded for rent-a-players. The McLouth trade was good because we didn't give away any #1 prospects or players that are going to make a splash in the majors. They might get their, but I doubt they result to much.

[wordslayer©]

Got some time to kill tonight so lets do the JS show

JS comes riding into town and looks at our team and says, "I've got the way for us to win, boys. Here is who we get to do it:

1) Terry Pendleton
2) Rafael Belliard
3) Juan Berenguer
4) Sid Bream
5) Otis Nixon

These five, collectively, are a steaming pile of dog $hit. JS should forever be grateful to Terry Pendleton for having he year he had in 1992. Pendleton had only hit .230 the year before. He was a horrible ball player, but JS got lucky with him, because even $hitty ballplayers can have good years.

We win in 1991 because we have four pitchers that were outstanding.

We win because David Justice has nearly an OPS of .900. Ronnie Gant is well over .800. Lonnie Smith is nearly .800. And because that fat a$$3d Terry Pendleton had a good year.

We did not win because of Sid effing Bream, Otis Nixon, and Belliard. We won in spite of them. JS got damned lucky with Pendleton. You make a move like that 100 times and you will lose 95 of them.

But hey, the media jumped on the JS bandwagon and a star was born.

Let's hit a few of the highlights:

In 1992 he signed Greg Maddux. Who could have imagined that he would be any good.

In 1993 he made the McGriff trade. This was JS's finest hour. It was a no brainer trade to make, but his genius in this trade was getting San Diego to make the deal.

In 1997 he trades away Dye. We get Lockhart and Tucker. You do the math.

He drafted Jeff Francoeur in the first round.

Wainwright for Drew. How's that working for us?

We traded something for Dan Kolb. I have no idea what we traded away, but anyone that can read a stat line should have known that Kolb was disaster waiting to happen.

He does well with the Hudson and Marte trades.

But then he gives away ten years of future for a year and a half of Palmeiro.

Some say he is a genius. I don't see it. I don't even think he was very good. I think he was okay. I think we had some glaring weaknesses going into the playoffs year after year that he could have fixed, but didn't fix it, and it probably cost us a world series or two. He was handed a great thing and didn't wreck it. For the most part, I think he was incredibly lucky.

[The Rap]

Poor guy and what a convoluted view of our 1991 season. Pendeleton was the MVP and he wasnlt brought here for his offense. JS knew that our terrific young guns were pitching scared with the infield defense behind them. Remember Jim Presley at 3rd and Andres Thomas at SS? So he went out and decided to make the left side of our infield the equivalent of a broad vacuum by playing Pendleton and Belliard. Then he decided to give us more defense by signing Sid Bream who was a great defensive first baseman. He also now had Pendleton and Bream at the corners who could calm down our baby pitching staff. Then again, many know the old adage that winning teams are strong down the middle so he went out and got Otis Nixon who covered nearly as much ground as his successor years later. Finally Buerenger, aka "Senor Smoke" was an effective #2 reliever to Alejandro Pena at a position that is a crapshoot mostly for any team in any given year.

[-Dr. Brave-]

But then he gives away ten years of future for a year and a half of Palmeiro.

I'm guessing this was a test to see if anyone was reading this?

[wordslayer©]

Poor guy and what a convoluted view of our 1991 season. Pendeleton was the MVP and he wasnlt brought here for his offense. JS knew that our terrific young guns were pitching scared with the infield defense behind them. Remember Jim Presley at 3rd and Andres Thomas at SS? So he went out and decided to make the left side of our infield the equivalent of a broad vacuum by playing Pendleton and Belliard. Then he decided to give us more defense by signing Sid Bream who was a great defensive first baseman. He also now had Pendleton and Bream at the corners who could calm down our baby pitching staff. Then again, many know the old adage that winning teams are strong down the middle so he went out and got Otis Nixon who covered nearly as much ground as his successor years later. Finally Buerenger, aka "Senor Smoke" was an effective #2 reliever to Alejandro Pena at a position that is a crapshoot mostly for any team in any given year.

You missed the best part of what Pendleton, Belliard and Bream did....not only was their defense so much better, but just by their being on the field, they got the pitchers to walk a hundred fewer batters and have almost 70 more strike outs.

The 1990 team gave up a lot more hits, but they walked more and had fewer strike outs. The 1990 team gave up almost 200 more runs the 1991 team did. If you think that's because of Pendleton and Bream's defense then you have really been drinking the JS kool aid.

Blauser was the shortstop in 1990----not Thomas.

The 1991 team scored around 70-80 more runs, which was quite an accomplishment when you consider that they gave Belliard 350 at bats with an ops of .582.

Pitching was better in 1991. I just don't believe that Pendleton, Bream and Belliard were the reasons for almost a 200 run difference.

[barvos4evr]

I think GM's are like QB's, they get too much credit when their teams are successful and too much blame when they aren't ( barring of course just retarded moves). I think that JS did a A- job over his entire time there, we had teams that pitched well and defended well for the most part. The offense wasn't his strength overall...yet on the few years where our pitching was kinda ...well...meh, he always seemed to cobble a pretty outstanding offensive team together. I think he was able to view the teams weaknesses and succeed. The fact that we didn't win more world series has more to do with the way Bobby always stuck veteran bench guys in as starters in the playoffs for some reason and mis-management of the bullpen( not to mention the introduction of the wildcard) as much as anything JS did. The dude gets props for his overall performance IMO!

[BarveFanHawaii]

Pendeleton was the MVP and he wasnlt brought here for his offense.

That said, I have one question...

...why the hell is he our hitting coach?