2009-2010 Offseason Trades/Transactions/Free Agent Rumors

[sdp]

Agent confirms.

[Middle Man]

Interesting. I don't completely understand it, but I'm sure he has his reasons. It seems to me that he's a little scardeypants and isn't willing to wait out a better offer. So he can agree to a trade now and retain some control over his destination or wait until June and go wherever the Braves send him.



Since there seems to be Soriano confirmation I've created a separate thread. Carry on. KB

[Flying Spaghetti Monster]

I'm actually loving this in a sick and probably twisted way. This almost ensures LaRoche won't be back unless he accepts a WAY below market one year deal.

Is their a specific reason you don't want our best offensive player back from last years team?

[Murphys#1Fan]

Looks like Gonzo turned his down. Reported by Tim Brown from Yahoo.

[KB 34]

LaRoche looks like a much better weapon when you only have him for the second half of a season. The problem is the season starts in the spring and LaRoche starts in July.

[bravos4evr]

Ryan Church has been DFA'd today to make room for Soriano on the roster.

http://twitter.com/BillShanks/status/6470219405

[Agent-X-]

Great...

I actually liked Ryan Church. When we didn't have good outfield options, he was a nice surprise...

I suppose he won't be hard to replace if we trade Soriano.

[bravos4evr]

He was okay....a 4th outfielder at best really. IMO, I don't think that we will have much oif a problem replacing his output, tho his ability to spell mclouth in center was nice.

[Agent-X-]

Because our best offensive player was still average.

I know he may have been the best...but that's like saying he was the best butt kicker in a butt kicking contest full of one-legged people. It's not hard to rise to the top of the pile, you know?

Besides...there are going to be better options available on the trade market. I've said since day 1....this team has a chance to be extremely special. To be special, we need a difference-maker....that's something LaRoche is not. Credit to Dreamscape for this terminology, but LaRoche is a complimentary player. You can have him around to stabilize the back end of your lineup....but he isn't worth committing big dollar or long term to, especially with Freeman supposedly a year away. If LaRoche wants to come back for a year at....say, $5M. Great....I'll welcome him back. If he's expecting 2-years and more than $7M/year...he's barking up the wrong tree in my books.

I think, at some point, we have to consider the ramifications of trading for a rental slugger at 1B or outright trading into our long term solution. How much of a sure thing is Freddie Freeman? If I recall, he is a pure slugger, and unlike Heyward he is not necessarily a hitter.

I'm thinking that the way to insure that this team is special this year might be to lock up 1B and use Freeman as a potential trade piece in conjunction with our other trade pieces. What possibilities could we have there?

[luvdembravos]

I can't decide if I really liked Church or was I just so damn happy to see him in RF instead of you-know-who???:p

[Andy G.]

I think, at some point, we have to consider the ramifications of trading for a rental slugger at 1B or outright trading into our long term solution. How much of a sure thing is Freddie Freeman? If I recall, he is a pure slugger, and unlike Heyward he is not necessarily a hitter.

I'm thinking that the way to insure that this team is special this year might be to lock up 1B and use Freeman as a potential trade piece in conjunction with our other trade pieces. What possibilities could we have there?
Actually, what makes Freeman so appealing is his advanced approach to hitting. I remember during spring training last year seeing an interview with him where he was talking about hitting the ball on a line rather than trying to hit it out of the park. His numbers and the word from the scouts have always suggested that he is a hitter rather than a pure slugger.

He had a .316 BA and a .378 OBP in Rome, when he was 18 just like Heyward. He also had a .516 SLG which gave him an OPS of .899. That was actually higher than Heyward's OPS that year. Before getting called up to AA last year, he had a .302 BA and a .398 OBP in Myrtle Beach. He was only 19 years old. I really don't understand why chopnationers don't seem to be excited about the kid. I know BFH has his reasons to believe he won't live up to the expectations scouts have for him, but I'm pretty stoked about what he's going to become.

[Agent-X-]

See now...I'm in complete agreement, X. I don't trust Freeman to be ready for the 2011 season like everyone expects him to be. I was thinking more along the lines of him deserving a cup of coffee in September of 2011...and potentially being our full time starter in 2012. This is why Adrian Gonzalez was so appealing to me because of the convenient coinciding of Gonzalez's free agency and MY estimated time of arrival for Freeman.

I'm not afraid to lock up a longterm 1B...but I'm continuously told we can't block the position, so whatever.

For me...I think we can trade Freeman in a package for that first baseman. Adrian Gonzalez will always be my most favorite idea because I found a way for it to make sense on all sides, but if we are to go a different direction for an easier trade, I can see the Royals being a fit with Billy Butler. The only problem with that...is Billy Butler has 4 or 5 more years of retention on him and Dayton Moore will surely want a Teixeira-plus bounty for him. We're talking....Schafer, Freeman just as a start and probably coughing up someone like Kimbrel or another highly touted arm or two at minimum.

I'm at work right now and I'm a little short on time to investigate what other possibilities are out there, but another one right off the top of my head is seeing if the Tigers will eat Miguel Cabrera's salary for a shot at obtaining Freeman and Schafer, though I'm not necessarily a big fan of the idea because Cabrera's owed a whole ton of money from now until forever.

Last idea coming from me from me for the moment is getting the Rangers to toss in Chris Davis in a trade to acquire Nelson Cruz. Not that I'd necessarily want to give up Freeman to get either, but it would provide us two affordable and retainable pieces for both the outfield and first base in the event that Soriano stays and Derek Lowe's salary can't be dumped.

What it comes down to, though....is we are still likely to find ourselves a generally cheap 1-year commitment on free agency at first base. If a trade to bring in a legitimate slugger is made, it will be to temporarily plug the hole in right field until Heyward is called up, at which point, Diaz will be force out of left field by the said slugger and to the bench.

This is the part that really doesn't sit well with me. I feel like we have a really good thing with Diaz in LF, and it's inexpensive production at that. The outfield is the last place I would want to put my payroll at this point, especially if we are in agreement that Heyward's arrival is impending. While it wouldn't hurt to have two sluggers in the OF, I consider Diaz to be a little more than garbage. The guy you've brought in for the outfield would need about a .900 OPS to better Diaz... unless you intend to form a platoon with Heyward... the whole situation just gets muddy from there.

Does the OF really need another bat? If so, doesn't it make sense to find someone merely average to fill the spot until Heyward is up? The question, rephrased, I think, is whether you think some cheap 1B fill-in will give more production than Heyward than filling 1B with a big bat and allowing Heyward to win the job. Which sounds like a more successful formula?

[wordslayer©]

Actually, what makes Freeman so appealing is his advanced approach to hitting. I remember during spring training last year seeing an interview with him where he was talking about hitting the ball on a line rather than trying to hit it out of the park. His numbers and the word from the scouts have always suggested that he is a hitter rather than a pure slugger.

He had a .316 BA and a .378 OBP in Rome, when he was 18 just like Heyward. He also had a .516 SLG which gave him an OPS of .899. That was actually higher than Heyward's OPS that year. Before getting called up to AA last year, he had a .302 BA and a .398 OBP in Myrtle Beach. He was only 19 years old. I really don't understand why chopnationers don't seem to be excited about the kid. I know BFH has his reasons to believe he won't live up to the expectations scouts have for him, but I'm pretty stoked about what he's going to become.

I'm with ya. I have no idea what there is not to like yet about the guy. I don't expect young hitters to have an abundance of power, so it really doesn't affect me too much that they aren't hitting the long ball, but I do look for some doubles, because they can grow into some power, and then I look to see if they can hit the ball for average. If they can do that, then see if they have any sort of plate discipline. If they have some doubles, a good average and a good amount of walks, and if they can do that at a very young age, then, to me, it's something to be excited about.

[The Rap]

Well Diaz is a terror against lefties but just average against rightys so the platoon would be in left with him and not Heyward. Also, I think we should take into account that the only way to trade Lowe is if whatever comes back our way is also expensive. Lowe makes a solid back of the rotation starter and a guy who could help with young pitching teammates. It is why I mentioned Alex Rios because I knew that Rios also had a huge contract.

[Agent-X-]

Matt Diaz is what he is for more than half the at bats out there... Just about every hitter is more effective against one side than the other. With Diaz, this is just a bit more true.

Split G GS PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS TB GDP HBP SH SF IBB ROE BAbip tOPS+ sOPS+
vs RHP as RH 100 273 235 60 7 3 7 34 0 0 24 70 .255 .349 .400 .749 94 12 10 4 0 2 3 .335 72 108
vs LHP as RH 65 152 136 56 11 1 6 24 0 0 11 20 .412 .464 .640 1.103 87 2 3 1 1 0 1 .450 150 185

I just don't think that our production is maximized going for an outfield bat unless that bat is tremendously better than anything we can find at first base. Unless... there is uncertainty regarding Heyward's productivity this year.

[Agent-X-]

I agree with have a good thing with Diaz...but the problem is that 'good thing' becomes an even greater thing when he's coming off the bench. Be honest, Diaz is a bigger weapon to the Braves off the bench than he is in the lineup. Sure, he can hit .300 and pop his fair share of homeruns, but the man murders left handed pitching and he does it with regular frequency. He, of all people, needs to be utilized against lefties primarily. In fact...he would give us a wonderful insurance policy if Heyward proves to be incapable of handling the Hamels' and the Lee's and the Johan's of the NL East.

The thing about Diaz is that he's valuable enough that you can't dump but he's not valuable enough not to be supplanted as a starter. If you get a legitimate middle of the order bat who can outproduce Diaz, you do it and you make Heyward earn his way onto the team over Diaz (which isn't actually that hard to do considering the majority of the league's pitching is right handed by the laws of handedness.)

And yes, I do feel the outfield needs a second bat on top of Heyward's impending arrival. I like Diaz and think he deserves a shot to start...but if we can find someone to take that shot away from him, so be it. Diaz is not a middle of the order force. Some may feel we dont' need one, but I think they're just thinking wishfully to be honest. This team needs a bopper...and if the only way to get a legitimate one into the lineup is to force Diaz back to the bench, so be it.

There are two trains of thought going on here that I don't think line up with what I've been saying. The first is that Diaz deserves to start. I'm not making that argument. Diaz has said he is happy to serve the Braves in whatever playing capacity they ask him to. He loves the fact that his best skill is put to use so much here while minimizing the fact he doesn't hit righties well. It's a great arrangement for both sides, and he's happy. Why change it? All we need is someone to hit righties well. Whatever bopper we might bring in is going to have to supplant that .850+ OPS coming out of LF, won't it? Why throw money into something if it managed to produce that well? And I say this realizing it might be a big IF, but Diaz did have a 1.100+ OPS last season hitting lefties.

Your second line of thought seems to indicate that you think it would be easier to trade for an outfield slugger than someone for first base. So far, the players you've put forward in your roster threads aren't the sort of big bopper I would hope to enter the season with. A mix of Nady and Johnson or Delgado or any one of those players... leaves something to be desired. When I think big bopper, I think of a guy like Gary Sheffield when he was in his prime. :)

[jlcct]

Well for what it's worth I think Heyward might start the year in Atlanta. Bobby is in his last year and he probably wants the swan song. I'm sure JS and FW would like to give it to him.
http://atlanta.braves.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20091207&content_id=7768856&vkey=news_atl&fext=.jsp&c_id=atl
"He was really a standout, I thought," Cox said. "He had another good season. He's got great makeup. He's very smart and he's extremely talented. And he's hungry. He's got the entire package. ... We are not going to give anybody, you know, the job, but he's going to be able to compete. If he wins it, he wins it."
Bobby was talking about spring training and it sounds to me like he has as good a shot to start as anybody to me.

[jlcct]

You sound like you are a realist most of the time and your usually correct. I don't know if we are in the same boat but my opinion about weather or not Heyward gets the start was heavily influenced by the way we handled Hanson and I don't think they are the same situation. I read the article and it made me second guess my opinion. You probably have given this more thought than I have but from what I know I'm not as convinced anymore.

[The Rap]

Adrian Gonzales and we should be working hard in figuring out how to get him.

[Dreamscape]

That's entirely a new thought process to direct attention to.

[Hobbes]

That's entirely a new thought process to direct attention to.
Hmmm...perhaps BFH can put some thought into it.

[Middle Man]

Hey, you guys kid, but look what happened when The Rap focused like a laser on Wagner.

Focus, Rap, focus.

[Hobbes]

According to a blurb by Rosenthal the Braves were looking to sign Ross Gload for the bench, and they made him a 2-year offer, although he ended up signing with the Philthies.

[Agent-X-]

The only reason I would consider leaning toward Heyward for the OF plus some filler/stand in who can be proficient... is so that we have more money for a difference maker. I simply fear that we'll pay out a couple of seven to nine million dollar contracts for guys like Mark DeRosa and roll into the season. I sort of feel like we need a cut above your run of the mill .260's hitter who manages to pop 25 homers with a low .800's OPS. I consider that guy to be pretty standard, run of the mill. I'd settle for a bit less in the OF and pay it a couple million less so long as it plays good defense out there.

But I guess that might be unrealistic in this market. I think we both really want the same thing, though, and that's to put a guy like Adrian Gonzalez at 1B and worry about the OF if the filler guy faulters.

[Hobbes]

Honest to God, they still need pitching because when your 3rd starter is Jeff Suppan you're kind of up poo creek without a boat and a paddle, but they might opt to go cheap from there. Let's just hope they manage to unload Hart in a separate deal and save enough money to make a good strong offer for Javier.
Rosenthal says they are talking to the Mets about a Hart-for-John Maine deal.

Edit: Plus, they have signed Randy Wolf.

[Middle Man]

DOB's current blog doesn't really provide anything new and interesting, but he certainly hints that he expects the Braves to make a couple of moves sooner than later. He also confirms, again, that Lowe is the primary target for unloading and that Vazquez is plan B. he also talks a little bit about the outfield situation and confirms, for the hundredth time, that Cameron would like to play in Atlanta.

...Which reminds me: Those of you expecting a big return on either a Lowe or Soriano trade, you really shouldn’t get hopes up. The main purpose of a Lowe trade would be to clear up payroll; can’t expect another team to both take on that big salary and give up a talented young player or big prospect.

And with Soriano, if teams weren’t willing to part with a draft pick to sign him as a free agent, why would anyone expect a team to part with a good young player in a trade for him after he accepted arbitration. They’re still going to have to pay Soriano what they would have if they had signed him as a free agent.

If the Braves get more than a pretty good prospect in return for him, I’d be surprised. ...

AJC Blog (http://blogs.ajc.com/atlanta-braves-blog/2009/12/09/in-frigid-indy-braves-look-to-deal-pitcher-or-two/?cxntfid=blogs_atlanta_braves_blog)

[Wahoo]

DOB's current blog doesn't really provide anything new and interesting, but he certainly hints that he expects the Braves to make a couple of moves sooner than later. He also confirms, again, that Lowe is the primary target for unloading and that Vazquez is plan B. he also talks a little bit about the outfield situation and confirms, for the hundredth time, that Cameron would like to play in Atlanta.



AJC Blog (http://blogs.ajc.com/atlanta-braves-blog/2009/12/09/in-frigid-indy-braves-look-to-deal-pitcher-or-two/?cxntfid=blogs_atlanta_braves_blog)

That's why I think we need to keep him, and bury him in middle relief. speak of sorryano, of course.

[Middle Man]

Here's something from the Baltimore paper. Elsewhere, their O's reporter talks about the team receiving many inquiries regarding their young outfielders.

Baltimore paper (http://www.baltimoresun.com/sports/orioles/bal-sp.orioles09dec09,0,3677165.story)

Along with trying to acquire Millwood, the Orioles this week have met with several teams peddling veteran pitchers. That includes the Atlanta Braves, who are trying to move Derek Lowe, and the Phillies, who are looking to trade Joe Blanton. The Orioles weren't particularly intrigued in either case.

....

• While Braves reliever Rafael Soriano accepted arbitration, ending the Orioles' chances of signing him as a free agent, they technically still could acquire the right-hander in a trade.

Soriano has reportedly already given the Braves permission to deal him, which is required to trade any player who has accepted arbitration. According to sources, Orioles officials met with the Braves on Tuesday to discuss scenarios, including ones involving Soriano.

The Braves aren't exactly in a great bargaining position with Soriano, who is expected to earn between $7 million and $8 million in arbitration. Atlanta already signed relievers Billy Wagner and Takashi Saito for a total of approximately $10 million, and they need to free up money to take care of other needs.

[Dreamscape]

"More on Lowe: Braves no longer asking for veteran bats. Would take prospect(s) and presumably use $ saved to sign a free-agent bat."
http://twitter.com/jaysonst/status/6509130848
"The Rays and Houston are making the strongest push to acquire right-handed closer Rafael Soriano from Atlanta with growing indications that the Rays are likely to make the move."
http://msn.foxsports.com/mlb/story/10496890

[-Dr. Brave-]

http://twitter.com/ajcbraves/status/6520640881

DOB's saying a deal to Tampa Bay could be done by the morning.

Better than trading him to the Orioles. Rays definitely could compensate us much better than they could.

According to Jon Morosi (http://twitter.com/jonmorosi), Jesse Chavez (http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/players/stats?playerId=29220) (acquired from the Pirates in the Iwamura trade) could be headed to Atlanta.

If it's true, I hope we're getting something else to go along with him. Chavez doesn't exactly make me moist.

Chavez' minor and major league stats (http://www.thebaseballcube.com/players/C/Jesse-Chavez.shtml)

[Chris_Moderato]

That's anti-climactic. I know we weren't really in a position to make demands for Soriano, but this trade seems pretty weak. That money had better be put to good use. Otherwise, this sucks.

[FrankEC]

That's anti-climactic. I know we weren't really in a position to make demands for Soriano, but this trade seems pretty weak. That money had better be put to good use. Otherwise, this sucks.

I think that money was used last week on Billy Wagner. ;)

[Hobbes]

Just realize that Wren gambled on offering Soriano arbitration. Not everybody even thought it was a good idea at the time. If he hadn't offered arb to Soriano we would have gotten nothing. By offering arb he got Chavez.

So where is the problem again? It only seems worse because once arb was offered we were all counting on the draft picks.

[Middle Man]

Just realize that Wren gambled on offering Soriano arbitration. Not everybody even thought it was a good idea at the time. If he hadn't offered arb to Soriano we would have gotten nothing. By offering arb he got Chavez.

So where is the problem again? It only seems worse because once arb was offered we were all counting on the draft picks.

Exactly right. We got something instead of nothing. FW had to spend some extra time doing GM stuff that he hadn't intended, but otherwise, what's the harm?

I think this is a good example of a situation where arbitration salaries don't equal fair market value. The whole arbitration/compensatory draft pick thing seems so screwy to me. I can't imagine that the current system will survive long enough that I'll have to explain it to my grandkids.

[Middle Man]

We lost one guy in the Rule 5 draft, according to DOB.


Braves lost lefty Edgar Osuna and didn’t take anyone in one of the quickest Rule 5 drafts I’ve ever seen.

Osuna, 22, was 22-19 with a 3.37 ERA in four minor league seasons, with 324 strikeouts and 78 walks in 349-2/3 innings.His development stalled after he got above low-Class A, and he was 7-10 with a 4.02 ERA in 27 games (26 starts) in 2009 in high-A and Double-A.

His strikeouts dipped to 105 in 150 innings in 2009, down from 135 in 125-1/3 innings in 2008 at low-A Rome.

DOB Blog (http://blogs.ajc.com/atlanta-braves-blog/2009/12/09/in-frigid-indy-braves-look-to-deal-pitcher-or-two/comment-page-18/)

Osuna was picked up by KC. :rolleyes:

[Gman]

The Soriano deal seemed like a bit of a panic move to me. I guess Wren wants to get the 1b situation taken care of before spring training rather than bide his time and wait for a better deal. But, Chavez isn't that bad a pickup. The Rays were pretty high on him when they got him from the Pirates for Iwamura. They felt like he had the tools to be a really good bullpen guy. So, hopefully McDowell can help unearth some of this upside that is currently well-hidden by his statistics. It looks like he's got good control and can take the ball a lot which is something I guess. Maybe Wren felt there were just too many closer/setup guys on the market to wait out a better deal. At least he's got the money he had to hold out for Soriano freed up again so he can continue to sweeten the pot on a Lowe deal.

[Andy G.]

Matt Diaz signed a one year deal to avoid arbitration. (http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2009/baseball/mlb/wires/12/11/2010.ap.bbo.baseball.rdp.0817/) You'll see it in the second to last paragraph of that article. The deal is worth $2.55 million.

[Wahoo]

Matt Diaz signed a one year deal to avoid arbitration. (http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2009/baseball/mlb/wires/12/11/2010.ap.bbo.baseball.rdp.0817/) You'll see it in the second to last paragraph of that article. The deal is worth $2.55 million.


I saw this guy on espn first take a couple of weeks ago. I can see why so many people like him. He seems like a really nice guy. Good for him. Hope he produces this year!

[Hobbes]

I saw this guy on espn first take a couple of weeks ago. I can see why so many people like him. He seems like a really nice guy. Good for him. Hope he produces this year!
Regardless of his merits as a full-time starter, he is exactly the kind of guy you want on your team. He hustles, plays hard every play and does whatever the team wants him to do without a hint of complaint. How can you not like Matt Diaz?

[bravos4evr]

well, it wil lsave us close to 4 million bucks either way so.... I like KJ but man he didn't help his own cause last year. I hope he ends up having a fine career!

[sdp]

DOB and Bowman are confirming reports that Kelly has indeed been non-tendered.

[Chris_Moderato]

http://twitter.com/Ken_Rosenthal/statuses/6604378028

Rosenthal tweeting that Braves are aggressively trying to trade Kelly Johnson....


....or he'll be non-tendered tonight.


At this point, I'll be surprised if we are able to trade him.

Why the hell do teams even bother trying to deal guys who they're going to non-tender?

[KB 34]

Why the hell do teams even bother trying to deal guys who they're going to non-tender?
Bill Bavasi

[Andy G.]

John Lackey took a physical with the Red Sox. This is from Ken Rosenthal (http://msn.foxsports.com/mlb/story/10523180/Source:-Lackey-has-BoSox-physical;-deal-close?).

Free-agent right-hander John Lackey underwent a physical Monday with the Red Sox, an indication that he is close to an agreement with the team, according to a major-league source.

...

The Angels and Phillies are the front-runners in trade discussions for Blue Jays right-hander Roy Halladay, according to major-league sources. Another possibility for the Angels would be a trade for Braves right-hander Derek Lowe.

The Phillies, apparently, want to trade Cliff Lee for prospects that they can use to trade for Roy Halladay. We'll probably have to wait until the Angels or the Mariners lose out on Lee/Halladay before we can move Lowe.

[The Rap]

I doubt that is true. I can't see the Phillies trading Lee for prospects to get Halladay. If they can pick up Halladay then they have a BIG 3 of Halladay, Lee, and Hamels. Why mess with that?

Lowe could be heading for LA Angel land but the question is for who? The only deal I can see is for Juan Rivera.Not bad but I would rather take Corey Hart as the key to either deal is essentially the salary dump of Lowe.

[CanadaBravesFan]

Looks like Halladay is a Phillie. YUCK. (I wanted to start the word with F but I will control the urge). :banghead:

http://www.tsn.ca/mlb/story/?id=302350

Its all over the sports news up here

[HaRdCoReBrAvEsFaN]

I doubt that is true. I can't see the Phillies trading Lee for prospects to get Halladay. If they can pick up Halladay then they have a BIG 3 of Halladay, Lee, and Hamels. Why mess with that?

Lowe could be heading for LA Angel land but the question is for who? The only deal I can see is for Juan Rivera.Not bad but I would rather take Corey Hart as the key to either deal is essentially the salary dump of Lowe.

Hart is JF 2.0...Rivera is solid...

[Lauren T.]

It's all over Twitter, too. Lee to the Mariners, Halladay to the Phils.

As a Braves fan, which is worse to face?

[HaRdCoReBrAvEsFaN]

this will only be a slight upgrade for Phillies...nothing to fret over...

[Hobbes]

I doubt that is true. I can't see the Phillies trading Lee for prospects to get Halladay. If they can pick up Halladay then they have a BIG 3 of Halladay, Lee, and Hamels. Why mess with that?
Their conversations with Lee made it clear that an affordable extension was not going to happen. So they figured Halladay gave them a better option at a front-line ace they could lock up for multiple years. They needed to move Lee to free up the necessary payroll and get the trade chips they needed.

I know Halladay was saying he needed to agree to an extension with his new team before approving a trade, but the linked article makes no mention of it. I wonder if he waived that requirement.

As a Braves fan, which is worse to face?
Halladay is a better pitcher than Lee, but he'd be hard-pressed to pitch better than Lee did this past season.

[The Rap]

What is JF 2.0? Anyway, which kids can we get for Lowe? I think Hart is better than Rivera simply because he is healthier and also because what BFH says is regression to me is a bad year and the kid can come back.

[Dreamscape]

JF 2.0 = Jeff Francoeur 2.0.

[The Rap]

This never occured to mae at all;

David O'Brien of the Atlanta Journal Constitution points out that the Braves last won a divisional title in 2005 while using 18 different rookies, yet with Kelly Johnson getting non-tendered over the weekend only one of those guys remains on the team: Brian McCann.

O'Brien notes that the "Baby Braves" were "celebrated for their energy, for the 'fire' they brought to a big-league team that had become viewed by some as being too button-downed and stoic for its own good." Of course, that season marked their 14th straight division title, so it was easy to attach positive traits to the newcomers and assume that their development would allow the winning machine to keep chugging along.

In reality McCann proved to be an All-Star catcher, Johnson proved to be a solid everyday second baseman when healthy, and ... well, that's about it. Jeff Francoeuer, Joey Devine, Chuck James, and Wilson Betemit have had their moments, though not always in Atlanta, and Blaine Boyer, Frank Brooks, Matt Childers, Roman Colon, Kyle Davies, Chuck James, Ryan Langerhans, Anthony Lerew, Andy Marte, Macay McBride, Pete Orr, Brayan Pena, and Jorge Vasquez have mostly been flat-out busts.

[The Rap]

Salaries;

Juan Rivera '09 3.25m '10 4.25 '11 5.25

Corey Hart '09 3.25

Hart more flexible and also could steal 20 + bases.

[Dreamscape]

I'd pass on both.

[Dreamscape]

A little tidbit.

Baseball Prospectus made a top 20 of the next decade. Hanley Ramirez, Justin Upton, Joe Mauer, Tim Lincecum, and Zach Greinke were the top five. A pair of Braves made the top 20. Jason Heyward at 13th and Tommy Hanson at 17th.

Beyond Ramirez, Heyward, and Hanson, the other NL East players to make the list was Stephen Strasburg at 8th and David Wright at 20th. Notable honorable mentions include Elvis Andrus, Neftali Feliz, and Ryan Zimmerman.

[Devil Wears Prado]

A little tidbit.

Baseball Prospectus made a top 20 of the next decade. Hanley Ramirez, Justin Upton, Joe Mauer, Tim Lincecum, and Zach Greinke were the top five. A pair of Braves made the top 20. Jason Heyward at 13th and Tommy Hanson at 17th.

Beyond Ramirez, Heyward, and Hanson, the other NL East players to make the list was Stephen Strasburg at 8th and David Wright at 20th. Notable honorable mentions include Elvis Andrus, Neftali Feliz, and Ryan Zimmerman.

I've been kind of hoping that Heyward's ceiling would be higher than J. Upton's.

[Dreamscape]

I've been kind of hoping that Heyward's ceiling would be higher than J. Upton's.
That's not to say it wouldn't be. Upton has a head start on Heyward and that might be part of it, along with the fact that the head start gives people a better idea on how good Upton can be.

[Gman]

Toronto has given up Halladay for a not-ready prospect starter and picked up Brett Wallace to supposedly play 1b. I wonder if the Braves can work out a deal to send them Lowe for Overbay. Overbay (1yr 8mil left on contract) doesn't look great on paper unless you just plan to platoon him against RH pitching. In his last 740 atbats against righties over the last 2 years he's got around a .390 OBP and about a .890 OPS. He's also supposed to be an exceptional glove guy around 1b. Back him up with some RH platooner and it might become a very productive postion for the Braves.

The Braves might have to feed Toronto a few mil/yr to make the money work out but that might not be too bad a way to get something useful for Lowe while freeing up the money they owe him for other uses. Could easily afford a RH 1b bat like a Garko and still add a good OF. Toronto might see an advantage in having a steady innings eater like Lowe given the youth of their rotation. It might be a low level deal that does good things for both teams.

[Andy G.]

Jon Morosi (http://twitter.com/jonmorosi) says that the Angels, Yankees, Orioles, Mets and Brewers are interested in Lowe. He also says that the Braves "don't necessarily need RH power bat for Lowe. Good prospect value could also work."

[bravos4evr]

IF we don't have to pay extra to move Lowe, I would be happy with a decent mlb bat for him. But if any money goes with him I think we recquire a decent prospect package instead.
However, I was wondering, IF we moved Lowe for prospects, and then also moved Vazquez for prospects and flipped prospects for AG, we would then have the bread to go after Jason Bay( the salaries of Lowe and Vazquez pretty much cancel out Bay and AG)( and if eventually his D just makes him Pat Burrel or Adam Dunn we flip him down the line to an AL team as a DH) we could make Medlen the 5th starter and still be a pretty darn good pitching team with our bullpen!

rosterbation:

rotation:
Jurrjens
Hudson
Hanson
Kawakami
Medlen

lineup:

Mclouth
Escobar
Chipper
AG
Bay
McCann
Diaz/Heyward
Prado

Pen:
Wagner
Saito
Moylan
Logan
Valdez
O'Flaherty

bench:
Infante
Diaz/Heyward/B Jones
Diroy Hernandez
David Ross
Gregor Blanco

The pitching does take a bit of a hit, but man! Look at that lineup! we would tear the cover off the ball and our top 4 would still be as good as anyone else in the NL!!!

Off the top of my head I guess this roster would cost about $2 million more than last years.( but I reckon there's a million or two swing either way)

I know it's dreamland thinking, but thats whats so fun about hot stove time!

[Wahoo]

I'd pass on both.


Agreed. Add Marlon Byrd to that do not acquire list as well. What a waste of money that would be.

[Andy G.]

Chuck Richter, who runs an Angels fan site called angelswin.com, wrote a couple of days ago that "According to a reliable source, the Angels are talking to the Braves about Javier Vazquez." Jayson Stark at ESPN has since come out and backed up the rumor. Apparently, his sources are "rival general managers".

Of course this trade can not happen unless Vazquez wants it to, because he has a no trade clause to western division teams. People are speculating that if the Angels worked out a contract extension for him, he might be willing to waive that no trade clause. His agent is Scott Boras, and Boars doesn't like to do that. However, coming off such an incredible year, and with the Angels being as desperate as they are, it's possible they give him an offer good enough to convince him to go back to California. Ricther goes on to mention another detail that he believes could help the Angels to convince Vazquez to accept a trade. He wrote, "Former GM now adviser Bill Stoneman knows Javier Vazquez well from their days with the Montreal Expos, is said to have kept "in touch" with Javy over the years since they both left Canada. It's possible a contract extension could entice the Vazquez camp to waive the no trade clause to an AL or NL West club with a two-to-three year extension."

My impression from all of it is that the Angels don't want Lowe, but they're trying to talk about Vazquez. I don't take this to mean that the Braves are doing anything but listening to offers for Vazquez. You might as well listen, right? I don't see what the Angels think they'll get out of it, unless they're prepared to overwhelm the Braves with a trade proposal AND overwhelm Vazquez with an offer of a contract extension. They've got almost no chance of getting him. They must not have much if any interest in Derek Lowe, at least not yet.

[bravos4evr]

Interesting, the Angels don't have a bat to trade us at the major league level tho.... However, they DO have a ton of prospects that the Padre's might be interested in! I could see another 3 team trade blockbuster coming out of this!

Angels get Vazquez

Braves get AG and maybe a low level prospect

Padres get Schafer Medlen/Freeman and 2 high end prospects from the Angels.

I guess we would stick with Lowe then..... hmmm, I wonder if we might end up doing as I stated above? Flip Lowe anyway to restock the farm and use the money on Free agent OF'ers and a 5th starter?

[Wahoo]

Yeah, Angel don'ts match up well for Javy. The only way it would make sense is if it were a three way (that's what she said).

Edit: I am more and more skeptical that we will be able to land the bat we need this offseason.

[The Rap]

Ok but let's play with this a bit. To anybody, who do you think we can get from the Angels in exchange for Vasquez. Keep in mind that Juan Rivera was mentioned in many Lowe deals but for Vasquez we would easily be asking for significantly more.

[bravos4evr]

Bowman is reorting that a source close to Vazquez says that he would prolly not approve a trade to the west coast. So it's looking more and more like Lowe is gonna get dealt and not Vazquez( at least to the Angels).

This actually suits me just fine. Free up them dollahs FW! Sign Vazquez to an extension and let's go grab two of Nady, Dye,Delgado,Blalock or Glaus!

[Hobbes]

One benefit of trading Vazquez is that even though Lowe is expensive, he is signed long-term. Vazquez would be gone after this year anyway and if Lowe is traded we will need another starter next year.

That may be a good thing if Lowe can't rebound, but an expensive Lowe should be better than some cheap roster filler.

[bravos4evr]

i think that the Braves would offer Vazquez an extension if Lowe is moved. With an increase of a few mill a year.

[Hobbes]

i think that the Braves would offer Vazquez an extension if Lowe is moved. With an increase of a few mill a year.
I don't think the Braves would offer a salary that Vazquez would find appealing.

[bravos4evr]

I bet he would accept a 3 yr $46 mill deal. He's close to Puerto Rico, I'm sure he digs pitching for the Braves. I'm not saying that he would take 3 yr $35 or anything, but I bet he would take 3 yr $45 or 46mill maybe with a club option on the 4th yr.

[Hobbes]

I bet he would take 3 yr $45 or 46mill maybe with a club option on the 4th yr.
I can't see the Braves offering that.

[bravos4evr]

you don't think so? after they threw more bread over more years to Lowe? I bet they will try to go for 3 yrs $40 mill and his agent will counter with 3 yrs $48 and they will settle right about $43-$46mill

[Hobbes]

you don't think so? after they threw more bread over more years to Lowe? I bet they will try to go for 3 yrs $40 mill and his agent will counter with 3 yrs $48 and they will settle right about $43-$46mill
The situation was different when Lowe was acquired. With the confirmation of Jurrjens' abilities and the arrival of Hanson, along with the extension for Hudson, I just don't see the Braves giving out Lowe money for another pitcher.

[-Dr. Brave-]

We could sign Vazquez to a three-year extension, and then trade him next Spring Training. :cool:

[Gman]

The situation was different when Lowe was acquired. With the confirmation of Jurrjens' abilities and the arrival of Hanson, along with the extension for Hudson, I just don't see the Braves giving out Lowe money for another pitcher.

There's could be a solid crop of starting pitchers hitting the FA market in 2011 if things don't change much:


From the right side: Vazquez (34), Josh Beckett (31), Rich Harden (29 *11mil mutual option for 2011), Brandon Webb (32), Aaron Harang (33 12.75mil club option).

From the left side: Cliff Lee (32), Jorge De La Rosa (30), Ted Lilly (35)

I don't know if I'd jump to quick on an extension for Vazquez. I think I'd wait to see what might be on the market in 2011 for similar money.

[The Rap]

The only ones I might take over Vasquez from those pitchers is Beckett and maybe Lee. Otherwise why change tires when they are all working and inflated the right way?

[Dreamscape]

Well, let's remember something. Javier Vazquez had, what can be argued to be, a career year. Let's not label him a true ace until we see him do it again. I am very comfortable waiting before even discussing a deal.

[KB 34]

Hypothetical question: What happens if Lowe's decline continues? Can the Braves compete with a dead weight $15 million contract for two seasons? It's a huge gamble to keep Lowe and one I don't like the Braves making. I'd much rather see how Vazquez does this coming season and throw the $15 million at him if he does well, or another free agent for that matter. I'm all for having some expensive players, but non-performing expensive players make me really uneasy.

[Dreamscape]

MLBTradeRumors had a few things about the Braves and former Braves in a recent update (http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2009/12/odds-ends-johnson-cust-damon-contreras.html).

-The Dodgers signed Brian Barton, the answer to the question "who did we acquire for Blaine Boyer?" The rocket scientist hit .266/.354/.390 with Gwinnett after the trade and was used once as a pinch runner for the big league club and was promptly caught stealing. The Dodgers will be the 27 year-old's fourth organization in four years. As part of the minor league deal, he was invited to spring training.

-DOB's talking up Johnny Damon's interest in playing for the Braves.

-The Diamondbacks have offered a contract to Kelly Johnson. It may be a $2M offer with incentitives.

-The Braves haven't contacted Adam LaRoche that he is aware of. DOB says he texted, "Guess I should have hit .400 while I was there." The asking price isn't helping matters, Adam.

[warefreak]

Everybody has been saying that John Lackey had to be signed first before we got any serious offers for Lowe. That just happened and you know that if the Angels want to compete next year they need to get another pitcher. Obviously they can't have Vasquez but hopefully they'll take Derek Lowe and give us Garrett Richards or Mike Trout.

that's hopefully... in actuality they'll probably give us a 500th round pick in next year's draft.

What I'm saying is that Lowe's market was JUST created not even a week ago. It'll probably happen soon.

If Lowe isn't gone by January 31st we're looking at Kenshin in the bullpen I'm thinking at least until late June/July and us signing a Delgado/Glaus/Branyan for 1b and Heyward in RF to start the year. I don't think that's a bad idea myself.

[Gman]

Everybody has been saying that John Lackey had to be signed first before we got any serious offers for Lowe. That just happened and you know that if the Angels want to compete next year they need to get another pitcher. Obviously they can't have Vasquez but hopefully they'll take Derek Lowe and give us Garrett Richards or Mike Trout.

that's hopefully... in actuality they'll probably give us a 500th round pick in next year's draft.

What I'm saying is that Lowe's market was JUST created not even a week ago. It'll probably happen soon.

If Lowe isn't gone by January 31st we're looking at Kenshin in the bullpen I'm thinking at least until late June/July and us signing a Delgado/Glaus/Branyan for 1b and Heyward in RF to start the year. I don't think that's a bad idea myself.

I think you might be right on Lowe. Pinero is still out there as an FA as is Marquis. Both are coming off better years than Lowe and have a few years of age on their side. Neither one has as much good history as Lowe but they are probably being projected in Lowe's ballpark for 2010. I doubt it'll take 11-15mil to sign either. Neither is a Type A so nothing is lost for signing them. There's other interesting starters out there on the market with lower price tags and who would take shorter contracts. Pedro, Sheets, Wang and Smoltz come to mind.

It's going to be tough for Wren just to do a salary dump with Lowe right now is my guess. I don't know what kind of offers Wren is getting but I'm expecting he won't be able to deal away his salary or to get something useful in return until Lowe shows he has righted the ship. If he's pitching good during the first half, he'll only have 2.5 yrs left on his deal and someone will need and want him. I really thought Lowe was a lock to be dealt back to the Dodgers. He's a perfect fit and did great things there. But the McCourt divorce has that team in complete disarray.

[The Rap]

Lowe is easily better than Pineiro or Marquis who had good years in their contract year but otherwise haven't had a good track record.

What I find a bit distressing is what Tim Brown at Yahoo wrote;

"• Would the Braves take Melky Cabrera(notes) and a prospect for Lowe? They might."

If it is just a salary dump then fine but Melky isn't the answer to our offensive problems. On the other hand,Brown also mentioned if the Braves can dump Lowe and his salary then we may see them in the market for Matt Holliday. Nice but I can't even imagine that happening.

[HaRdCoReBrAvEsFaN]

He wouldn't be an impact for us, but being a SH he'd be a very valuable 4th OF with the ability to give Heyward and McLouth days off vs LH when needed, and throw him in LF vs tough RH's for Diaz...

[bmcvay10]

I'm pretty sure Mitch Jones is my new favorite player as well as the savior of the '10 season. Take a look at the answer to our lack of power issues:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Xed1Hec3Szs

[KB 34]

I'm pretty sure Mitch Jones is my new favorite player as well as the savior of the '10 season. Take a look at the answer to our lack of power issues:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Xed1Hec3Szs
Jones reminds me of another baseball hero.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JcXWsibiiPk&feature=related

[bmcvay10]

Indeed he does, though I felt like Mitch's legendary saga is more like this former Atlanta, Ultra Fleer Future Star..

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ywW8woNGU7c

[Gman]

Another reason they may have picked up Jones was that they are pretty serious about getting Nady and want a temporary plug-in if he's not ready to start the season. They both have similar profiles in that they both play the corner OF and 1b and provide some potential pop from the right side.

This isn't the solution to the great middle of the order bat they could use but since Wren is a bit pinned financially with the Lowe/Vazquez situation, getting Nady could be a solution that gives the Braves enough to get thru the early going. Wren could then grab a Kotchman-like LH platoon for 1b before spring training and then let these guys all battle it out for either everyday roles or platoon roles.

The Braves would have McLouth set in center and Heyward, Schafer, Diaz, Nady and M.Jones would have the spring to prove they can produce in a permanent or platoon role in the OF. For 1b, Nady, M.Jones and the LH platoonie would have the spring to nail down a permanent or platoon role. There's enough talent there to build some effective platoons or for one or two of them to make a big contribution in a full-time role. Nady could put up his 2008 numbers. Diaz could go "DeRosa" and make the best of a 2nd chance. Heyward could do a Freddy Lynn. Schafer could really be the guy we saw in his first week of '09 before he injured his wrist. And Mitch Jones could shock everyone. There's enough decent options there to make it work and to weather a couple of failures. The better it works the more trade surplus they will have to package with Vazquez or Lowe before july 31 to get a RH power bat stud for the short and long-term.

[bmcvay10]

The better it works the more trade surplus they will have to package with Vazquez or Lowe before july 31 to get a RH power bat stud for the short and long-term.

I agree with you about the rest of your post, Gman, but unless Lowe is throwing exceptionally well come July, I don't see why we would be able to move him in a more profitable way or be able to do so more easily than we could before the start of the season. Plus, if he's throwing that well, it'd probably make more sense to keep both Lowe and Vazquez assuming we'd be in the thick of the playoff chase if they're doing that well. It all depends on the exact situation though. I could see moving Vazquez at that time...if we're desperate, or worried for whatever reason that it isn't likely he will return to the '09 Javy anytime soon.

I agree with, I think it was either KB or BFH that if we are going to trade Vazquez, we ought to do so prior to this season. His value is more than likely at it's peak right now. If we're going to trade Lowe, it needs to be before this season, or during the offseason next year (that takes off 15 million dollars, which makes him more appealing and less risky).

If we happen to keep both of them, AND sign a guy like Nady to play first or LF, AND Lowe pitches close to his average season numbers, AND Javy is somewhat similar to the '09 Javy, AND the rest of the starters stay healthy and produce as expected...you got to believe that we'd easily be in the hunt for october baseball. Also, if we are clearly in that situation, I'd personally like to see a team with that type of legitimately dominant and deep of a staff in the playoffs. If we got through the first round, I can't imagine any other team coming close to matching up with us game 1 through 7. Hell, if we wanted, we could play 6 games in a 7 game series without turning over our rotation! And each of those starters would be solid choices, maybe all but Kawakami would be 1st or 2nd game guys for almost every other mlb team.

I know we need some pop, but it fires me up to think about the possibilities with these 6 starters and even just a minor addition such as Nady and a platoon guy.

[The Rap]

Rumors I am hearing;

1. Braves close to deal with Xavier Nady and the only thing holding it up is a confirmnation of Nady's health

2. Braves want the Yankees to come after Derek Lowe as the guy they covet the most is Nick Swisher.

3. Javier Vasquez has already confirmed to Braves that he can't be dealt west of the Rocky Mountains.

4. Phillies will be signing a new closer soon.

[warefreak]

I for one would love to have him on our team.

An outfield of McLouth, Holliday, and Heyward would be one of the best in baseball, if not the best.

I just can't see it happening. I still see the Yankees waiting it out and grabbing him in January.

[Middle Man]

Rosenthal is reporting (is tweeting considered reporting?) that the Yankees are in "active negotiations" for a starting pitcher - a trade, not a free agent. DOB reports that a NY writer called him today to ask whether he'd heard about anything heating up between the Yankees and the Braves.

**crossing fingers**

[JanShan12]

I hope that is about Lowe! The quicker a deal gets done, the better.

[Wahoo]

Of course the Yankees don't have interest in Lowe. Who does? We have an Alex Rios situation on our hands.

[wordslayer©]

I hated Lowe before we ever signed him, so believe me I ain't sugar coating this, but even as much as I don't like him, I would never just let him go for so little. I just do not think he will be as bad as he was last year, and honestly, I think he will be better than Kawakami this next year.

If he doesn't bring anything substantial, then hold on to him, because once a few teams see him pitching well and they see that their own pitching staff is pretty $hitty, then Lowe's value will be much greater.

[Hillbilly]

I hated Lowe before we ever signed him, so believe me I ain't sugar coating this, but even as much as I don't like him, I would never just let him go for so little. I just do not think he will be as bad as he was last year, and honestly, I think he will be better than Kawakami this next year.

If he doesn't bring anything substantial, then hold on to him, because once a few teams see him pitching well and they see that their own pitching staff is pretty $hitty, then Lowe's value will be much greater.


I agree with all of this. However, I just don't see him pitching for the Braves in 2010 after he acted pissy about the trade talks and spouted off to Bowman last week. The bridge may not be burned yet, but it wreaks of gasoline.

[Lauren T.]

"Only Vazquez could bring the bopper the Braves need." - Ken Rosenthal, 12/2/2009
I suppose that part of your signature is no longer necessary. Melky isn't exactly a "bopper". ;)

[Hillbilly]

I agree with all of this. However, I just don't see him pitching for the Braves in 2010 after he acted pissy about the trade talks and spouted off to Bowman last week. The bridge may not be burned yet, but it wreaks of gasoline.



As I was saying...Lowe isn't going anywhere. :banghead:

[Middle Man]

Well, me and my buddy Mark Bradley were wrong about JV being on the opening day roster - but correct about the difficulty of finding a trade partner who would trade a big hitter.


Mark Bradley (http://blogs.ajc.com/mark-bradley-blog/2009/11/10/bradleys-buzz-vazquez-could-be-going-but-i-bet-he-stays/?cxntfid=blogs_mark_bradley)

Mark Bradley at the AJC writes that he believes the Braves will keep JV, despite the many reports to the contrary. He expresses thoughts very similar to those I've posted here recently. I'm not sure the trade value of JV is quite as high as some think and finding a suitable trade partner that can actually do the Braves some good in 2010 will be very difficult, IMO.

Who will want a really good starting pitcher with one year on his contract? A team that plans to make a run in 2010, I would think. A team like the Braves, for example. What will such team trade for a one-year pitcher? They'd probably gladly give up a good prospect or two, but that obviously doesn't help the Braves in 2010. If we can find a team with the outfielder equivalent of JV (really good with one year left on a contract and/or about to become very expensive) from a team with a situation very similar to the Braves (a surplus of talent at one position, outfield in this instance) then we'll have a good trade partner. Does such a team exist? We'll see.

I predict JV will either be on the opening day roster of the Braves or Frank Wren will make a trade that most of us dislike and that won't help our chances in 2010.

Personally, I've done a complete 180 on this. I think that if the Braves are serious about winning a WS in 2010, they should be trying to find a way to both keep JV and improve the lineup.

[Chris_Moderato]

Check out this trade that was suggested by a Braves "fan" over at MLBTR-

Atlanta Braves Get:

1B Adrian Gonzalez

San Diego Padres Get:

SS Yunel Escobar
OF Jason Heyward
1B Freddie Freeman
C Christian Bethancourt
P Zeke Spruill

Imagine the uprising if this went down.

[Hobbes]

Check out this trade that was suggested by a Braves "fan" over at MLBTR-

Imagine the uprising if this went down.

Hard to believe that a "fan" could know enough about baseball to desire the addition of Adrian Gonzalez but not realize the value of those trade pieces.

[Agent-X-]

Hard to believe that a "fan" could know enough about baseball to desire the addition of Adrian Gonzalez but not realize the value of those trade pieces.

Strangely enough, that's about what it would take to get Gonzalez.

San Deigo GM, is that you posing as a Braves fan?? Are you trying to plant ideas?? :headscratch:

[Wahoo]

Strangely enough, that's about what it would take to get Gonzalez.

San Deigo GM, is that you posing as a Braves fan?? Are you trying to plant ideas?? :headscratch:

There is no way a reasonable GM could or should expect to get that bounty for Gonzalez. Absurb. Freeman, Escobar and Heyward. If weren't giving up Heyward for Peavy no way would be giving him up for Gonzalez. I know they are asking for a lot, but I think that is way too far-fetched to be a reasonable return for him.

[-Dr. Brave-]

Check out this trade that was suggested by a Braves "fan" over at MLBTR-


Atlanta Braves Get:

1B Adrian Gonzalez

San Diego Padres Get:

SS Yunel Escobar
OF Jason Heyward
1B Freddie Freeman
C Christian Bethancourt
P Zeke Spruill



Wow... Gonzalez for an arm, a leg, a testicle, a kidney and a beer fart. Not worth it. :rolleyes:

[Hobbes]

Some thoughts on the Wren's recent moves by Ken Rosenthal.
Trying to figure out Atlanta's plan -- 3:36 p.m.

Two thoughts on the Braves:

*The Javier Vazquez trade cannot be adequately judged until the Braves spend the approximately $8 million they saved in the exchange -- and maybe not even then.

The Braves’ motivation in trading Vazquez was to clear salary for other moves. The first will be the signing of free agent Troy Glaus to play first base. Let’s say, just for the sake of discussion, that the second will be the signing of Mark DeRosa.

At that point, the trade effectively would amount to Vazquez and left-hander Boone Logan for outfielder Glaus, DeRosa, Melky Cabrera, left-hander Mike Dunn and minor-league righty Arodys Vizcaino, who was rated the Yankees’ third-best prospect by Baseball America.

Such a breakdown accounts neither for the years of control for each player, nor the two high draft picks the Yankees will receive if Vazquez departs as a high free agent after next season. But once the entire picture is known, the deal likely will appear more balanced.

Here's the problem:

Given the Braves' need for a right-handed slugger, they should be plunging into the markets for Jason Bay and Matt Holliday, the two top hitters on the free-agent market. Both, club officials say, are out of the Braves' price range.

*Another concern: What do Glaus, left-handed closer Billy Wagner and right-handed setup man Takashi Saito have in common?

None has been a picture of health in recent seasons.

The Braves aren’t buying robust players in their primes; they’re gambling on three thirty-somethings -- late thirty-somethings in the cases of Wagner and Saito.

Wagner is a physical freak who returned from Tommy John surgery in near-record time last season. Still, he pitched on back-to-back days only once with the Red Sox.

Saito, too, was handled delicately by the Sox after missing most of the second half of 2008 with a right elbow sprain. Braves manager Bobby Cox, on the other hand, can be hard on relievers; let’s see if Saito makes it through the whole season.

Finally, Glaus made a strong enough return from right shoulder surgery last January to rejoin the Cardinals in September and crack their postseason roster. But in four of the past seven seasons, he has missed significant time with injuries. -- Ken Rosenthal

[bravos4evr]

but they aren't long term gambles, so i don't see much horrible about these deals. I still see us making one more move for an OF bat ( be it Nady, Dye or whomever) Is it risky? sure, but IMO, unless you are going to spend 150 million bucks for yer payroll you either have to take risks with young players, or with veteran players coming off of injury seasons.... we chose the latter

[wordslayer©]

Good post, Hobbes

I hope Wren has something left up his sleeve, because as it stands right now, like I said yesterday, it's just ugly still to me. There isn't really a move we have made yet that couldn't have been made with the addition of JV.

These pitching prospects, in MY MIND, have the most value as trade pieces, because there is no way that I am putting a lot of stock in pitchers this young being projected as top of the line major league starters.

You would have thought we would have learned last year what it's like to bank on players who are deep into their 30's, but the article is right, and we sure are counting on some aging ball players to step up, and when you are doing that, it rarely turns out like you think it will.

I'm still in Wren's corner here, but there had better be something else coming.

[Andy G.]

I'm getting a little frustrated by all of this.
The Braves’ motivation in trading Vazquez was to clear salary for other moves.
This is just not true. We didn't trade Vazquez to clear salary. We traded him because we had six starting pitchers under contract. Why did we have six starting pitchers under contract? Because Tim Hudson likes pitching in Atlanta so much that he signed for three years at $9 million a year. Tim Hudson is a better pitcher than Javier Vazquez and we have him for three years instead of one.

When Wren signed Hudson, he knew he'd have to trade Vazquez. He pretended for a while that he was going to trade Lowe, but nobody's going to trade for that guy. He tried to get some general managers to make a mistake and take his salary off our hands, but it wasn't going to happen.

Trading Vazquez clears salary for us to make other moves, but that is not why we traded him. Seriously, nobody wants to accept this fact. Everybody is talking about something that didn't really happen. We didn't trade Vazquez to clear salary, and we certainly didn't trade him to fix our offense. We traded him and got the most we could get for him, because we have Hudson who is a better pitcher signed for more years and will be paid less money.

:banghead:

[bravos4evr]

Yep, y'all are both right. We had too many pitchers and we needed to move one of them. Lowe was the best option for the Braves but not the best option for other teams ( unless we chipped in so much bread it didn't matter). So we got a young blue chip arm and a good looking relief pitcher and they threw in Melky Cabrera.( who we need as a bench OF who can play all 3 positions). IMO, we got as much value as could be expected with a guy who has the career history that Vazquez has.(cuz remember GM's aren't blinded by one good year, they look at career numbers too! :-) )
The fact that this also cleared 9-9.5 mill was a bonus,and IMO, may allow the team to purse both a nady/Dye type of player as well as Derosa. ( who ,IMO, has such versatility as to be a great virtue on the bench when we have both Glaus and Chipper out there, if we have to sit them for a week or so, the production drop off won't be that bad).

I think this is a good deal overall.



Oh, and btw, I wouldn't be surprised to see us make a deal for Willingham using this Viscaino guy as a centerpiece at all. Nor, would I be surprised to see Lowe moved after next season if he's playing better.

Mclouth
Escobar
Chip
Glaus
McCann
Nady/Dye/Willingham
Diaz/Heyward
Prado

that's a pretty potent offense when you figure that it will usually only take 4 runs for us to win most nights!( no matter which of those options I listed ends up in the OF)

[bmcvay10]

Well, I think these moves have confirmed mine and several others' beliefs here that Wren's primary focus is to give us an outside shot at winning in '10, while saving every opportunity possible to put real contenders on the field in the seasons following.

Glaus for one year will either be great, or something that didn't work out. The worst that can happen is we lose 2 mil on a possible 30+ HR threat. He won't chew up payroll past '10, leaving the door wide open for Freeman.

Guys (and girls)..Wren isn't done with this offseason yet. He will sign whoever is willing to accept a 1-year deal. I see both Nady and DeRosa as strong possibilities, while Dye may still be on the radar as well. I believe Nady will eventually be the man we welcome to our squad because he will be looking for a 1-year, low guaranteed salary, incentive based deal to prove himself and gain a payday with security after '10.

Wren is clearly stating that he is unwilling to enter the '10 offseason with any more strings attached to guys than he has to. Heyward will not start, unless he has a phenomenal spring. You know they won't platoon a guy of his caliber, so they will allow Diaz the spot as his own to lose. Once he loses it, we'll see Heyward..probably around June. Until then:

McClouth
Escobar
Jones
Glaus
McCann
Nady
Diaz
Prado
Pitcher

Hudson
Lowe
Jurrjens
Hanson
Kawakami

Wagner
Saito
Moylan

...giggle...sigh...sob...scream...sigh...shrug shoulders...Merry Christmas

[bravos4evr]

I don't see why either mine or bmcva's rosters couldn't win 90+ games. Let's look closer at them.

Hr's- all starting 8 have potential 15 hr power, 6 have 20 hr potential and if Chipper can be protected by Glaus they both could have a shot at 30+.

OBP- this really looks solid as there isn't a guy on there that isnt gonna be around.350 or higher!
OPS- we should have average to above average OPS at every position aside from perhaps LF and that really depends on how Diaz plays, if he hits like last year, we are in good shape.

depth- If we can somehow nab both a nady and a Derosa we would have good bench depth and versatility between Infante and Derosa and Cabrera , we wouldn't be throwing replacement player level numbers out there if a guy needs aday off or gets injured. I don't think that the importance of bench depth can be overstated enough. Deep benches mean playoffs!!!

Would that offense be a top 5 in the NL? perhaps but much more like to be a top ten, and considering that even with JV gone our rotation will be top 5 easily, you combine that with a strong pen and I think that team could do very well and have a good shot at making the playoffs( where , with our rotation depth, we could be a scary team to face! ( let's face it, before we crashed and burned at the end last year, nobody in the nL would've wanted to face us in a 7 game series!

[bravos4evr]

Just something to ponder, is it possible that FW is sitting back and waiting to see if Holliday goes to the Cards to then make a run at trading for Ludwick? Granted he had a down year, but his bapip was a little bit down from his 2007 season ( and 2008 was so dominant as to maybe have been an early career year).

I wouldn't mind him patrolling the OF for us as he would have trade value later and would prolly only cost us a prospect.

[CanadaBravesFan]

If Ludwick only took a few mid range prospects I would make that move in a heartbeat. Id even give them Melky as a form of good faith. haha.

[bravos4evr]

I would move Melky for salary relief sure..., but he does have a lot of value as a bench player due to his ability to play all 3 outfield positions well and though he's not a great hitter he is a huge upgrade over the average 4th OF'er. I would actually like to hang on to him if we made the Ludwick deal for depth alone if possible.

[The Rap]

True story; A few years ago I was sitting in great seats at Yankee Stadium with my best friend. I watched Melky play in CF and turned to my friend and said, "Thank God he is on your team and not on my Braves." "Nuff said.

[Dreamscape]

Melky had a bad year two years ago in center, but has been "ok" the last two years. While not a great defender, he is at the very least average at all three outfield slots.

[Chris_Moderato]

David O'Brien has the easiest job in baseball. He never has to write an article in the offseason- he can just keep printing the same article over and over, changing the names depending on the situation. For example...

"I think [INSERT PLAYER NAME HERE] would/will seriously consider it for at least two reasons: He hasn’t received better offers yet, and he’s told some people he’d like to play for the Braves... He’s always respected Bobby Cox and the organization."

It (http://blogs.ajc.com/atlanta-braves-blog/2010/01/04/2357/?cxntfid=blogs_atlanta_braves_blog) appears today, coincidentally.

[Andy G.]

David O'Brien has the easiest job in baseball.
And he still finds a way to suck at it.

[KB 34]

I say we platoon DOB with a random word generator. That way BFH and others who actually read his blog can make sense of things.

[Lauren T.]

In the press conference for Troy Glaus, Wren said that the team is pretty much set and that they might make a small addition or two. Sounds like no more big-name signings this off-season!

[Hillbilly]

In the press conference for Troy Glaus, Wren said that the team is pretty much set and that they might make a small addition or two. Sounds like no more big-name signings this off-season!

I hope he's BSing, because I have a hard time believing the Braves had to clear Vazquez's salary to make room for Troy Glaus and nothing more. Even with the 6-starting-pitchers dilemma, that doesn't make sense to me.

[Lauren T.]

I'm sure the archived video will be on Braves.com soon -- you can all listen for yourself and draw your own conclusions, but I think it was pretty clear.

[KB 34]

If the Braves are done I believe this would mean the Braves cut payroll. Someone whose worked out the numbers could confirm this. If true that's quite disappointing. I also find irony in the Braves acting as though a guy they just signed to a $2 million contract will magically return to form and be the #4 hitter the Braves need. Glaus got $2 million for a reason, he's anything but a sure thing. The team needs to continue making moves. Right now the Braves are a 75 win team, in my honest opinion.

[Chris_Moderato]

Can I just say (and this has nothing to do with anyone here), I hate links to tweets. On MLBTR, Fox Sports, all of them. I hate clicking a link and having it take me to a "tweet". Tweets are useless. Stop tweeting.

Everyone!

LAY SILENT YOUR BEAKS!

DOWN WITH TWITTER!

DOWN WITH TWITTER!

[bravos4evr]

Oh come now, kB, yer poop colored glasses are awfulyl dirty today! I think this team is fully capable of winning 90 games. IF we stay healthy, and IF we perform up to the level our players are capable of. 75 is really really low.... No way we play that bad.

[Lauren T.]

Can I just say (and this has nothing to do with anyone here), I hate links to tweets. On MLBTR, Fox Sports, all of them. I hate clicking a link and having it take me to a "tweet". Tweets are useless. Stop tweeting.
Personally, I love not having to rely on DOB for breaking news. :thumbsup:

[Hobbes]

Can I just say (and this has nothing to do with anyone here), I hate links to tweets. On MLBTR, Fox Sports, all of them. I hate clicking a link and having it take me to a "tweet". Tweets are useless. Stop tweeting.

Everyone!

LAY SILENT YOUR BEAKS!

DOWN WITH TWITTER!

DOWN WITH TWITTER!
Hear, hear. I can't wait until all of these folks who are enamored with Twitter realize that it's dumb and consign it to the dustbin.

[KB 34]

Oh come now, kB, yer poop colored glasses are awfulyl dirty today! I think this team is fully capable of winning 90 games. IF we stay healthy, and IF we perform up to the level our players are capable of. 75 is really really low.... No way we play that bad.
You mentioned two huge ifs that must happen for the Braves to succeed. The offense is anchored by Chipper (37) and Glaus (collecting social security) which is quite scary. Chipper is great and all but he's a lot older now and it's time for other players to take over his stranglehold on the fate of the offense. The bullpen will be anchored by two older relievers. In terms of players performing Prado and Diaz must prove last year wasn't a fluke. Lowe must rebound with Vazquez gone. Someone must become a power threat in the lineup. There are a lot of questions. Add a huge bat in LF and I become pretty confident about this team. Right now they're one big player away from competing.


Oh, and I hate Twitter. I'd feel like the biggest creep following someone's life by the minute. Blogs are good enough in my book.

[Hobbes]

The offense is anchored by Chipper (37) and Glaus (collecting social security) which is quite scary.
Glaus is 33. He's no spring chicken but he's hardly a geezer yet either. The issue with Glaus in injury, not age.

[Wahoo]

Glaus is 33. He's no spring chicken but he's hardly a geezer yet either. The issue with Glaus in injury, not age.

Just to clarify, it's possible for a person with a physical (and/or mental) disability to collect social security. I believe that's where KB was going with that, which just speaks volumes about that joke. LOL.

[Agent-X-]

You mentioned two huge ifs that must happen for the Braves to succeed. The offense is anchored by Chipper (37) and Glaus (collecting social security) which is quite scary. Chipper is great and all but he's a lot older now and it's time for other players to take over his stranglehold on the fate of the offense. The bullpen will be anchored by two older relievers. In terms of players performing Prado and Diaz must prove last year wasn't a fluke. Lowe must rebound with Vazquez gone. Someone must become a power threat in the lineup. There are a lot of questions. Add a huge bat in LF and I become pretty confident about this team. Right now they're one big player away from competing.


Oh, and I hate Twitter. I'd feel like the biggest creep following someone's life by the minute. Blogs are good enough in my book.

How many years are you going to ride that train with these guys?

And while it'd be nice for Lowe to rebound, he is not the replacement in the rotation for Javier Vazquez. Tim Hudson is rejoining the rotation, and I'd even wager he'll have a better season this year than Javy. What exactly has really changed in our rotation?

[KB 34]

How many years are you going to ride that train with these guys?

And while it'd be nice for Lowe to rebound, he is not the replacement in the rotation for Javier Vazquez. Tim Hudson is rejoining the rotation, and I'd even wager he'll have a better season this year than Javy. What exactly has really changed in our rotation?
Last season Vazquez pitched out of his mind. We're talking about Cy Young caliber pitching. The rotation was also more durable than I dreamed possible. Jurrjens, Hanson, and Kawakami should be similar to last season. That leaves Lowe and Vazquez and durability vs. Lowe, Hudson, and versatility. I like Hudson but I also think fans have unrealistic expectations for him. Fans see him as a 2.5 ERA pitcher, I see him as a 3.5 ERA pitcher. Don't get me wrong, that's an extremely productive and valuable pitcher the Braves are lucky to have. However, looking at the starting rotation I think it's fair to say it's worse than it was last year. Is the offense much better to compensate for it? It's better than opening day last year but that's not a relevant comparison. It needs $2 million Glaus to play like second half LaRoche.

[Agent-X-]

Last season Vazquez pitched out of his mind. We're talking about Cy Young caliber pitching. The rotation was also more durable than I dreamed possible. Jurrjens, Hanson, and Kawakami should be similar to last season. That leaves Lowe and Vazquez and durability vs. Lowe, Hudson, and versatility. I like Hudson but I also think fans have unrealistic expectations for him. Fans see him as a 2.5 ERA pitcher, I see him as a 3.5 ERA pitcher. Don't get me wrong, that's an extremely productive and valuable pitcher the Braves are lucky to have. However, looking at the starting rotation I think it's fair to say it's worse than it was last year. Is the offense much better to compensate for it? It's better than opening day last year but that's not a relevant comparison. It needs $2 million Glaus to play like second half LaRoche.

No, it really doesn't. Not even Adrian Gonzalez could perform like second half Laroche. The expectation is that Glaus would perform more consistently than Laroche and equal Laroche's full season OPS+ of 121. That's a lot more reasonable.

I question whether the Braves really even need that. Sure, it would help, but the real desire is for Glaus to consistently perform better than first half Kotchman. Meanwhile, a guy like Heyward has the potential to set the Atlanta offense on fire.

If neither of those happen, then we'll be in a bit of trouble. Thankfully, Wren has shown a penchant for making adjustments during the course of the season, so it's not like we are necessarily handcuffed to the opening day roster.

[Gman]

For what it's worth...

Schuerholz is saying the only reason our payroll was at $96M in 2009 was because we collected insurance money while Hudson was on the DL.

That in mind, he said our payroll remain basically the same (or...'not at all diminished' I think the term he used). Which is "why" we should be at a figure just about $90M.

While it makes sense in a way...I'm not sure how insurance money makes a difference here. When you took everyone's salaries from last season and added it to the payroll and accounted for the $4.5M to the rest of the 40-man roster (Bowman suggests it's closer to $6M; $400K for each player) the payroll was $96M....even before insurance money was accounted for. Even if you do account for insurance money...it all sort of went to Hudson's salary.

Anyway...if someone wants to describe how the insurance money adds to (and effectively raises) the payroll, feel free to do so. I imagined it to be a wash...but this just seems like another Schuerholzian math class where the numbers just don't make sense and the only explanation for it is that we as generals "fans" don't understand the inner workings of how the finances are working for the team.

Sounds like you have all the numbers on the nose BFH. You're just not accounting for one thing. The Braves knew they were going to get insurance relief for Hudson in the amount of 6mil so they allowed the base payroll for 2009 to go up to $96mil since they were going to get that $6mil subsidy. Had Hudson not been insured they would have kept the payroll to 90mil last year.

Hard to say how they spent it but my guess is if they didn't have that 6mil to spend there would have been some different decisions last winter around guys like Infante, G.Anderson, Diaz and maybe Ross.

[Hobbes]

...but this just seems like another Schuerholzian math class where the numbers just don't make sense and the only explanation for it is that we as generals "fans" don't understand the inner workings of how the finances are working for the team.
To be fair, I'm sure the general fan doesn't understand the inner workings of a team's finances, and certainly that is more the case with a corporate owner. There are an awful lot of accounting issues that impact the budget, and Liberty does not seem to be inclined to make such calculations public. It's obvious that they don't want to provide a hard payroll number, so we are left to guess.

[The Rap]

Thank you for describing the frustration of an older Braves fan who yearns for the days of old when teams made trades and other moves and the fans didn't have to discuss economics at all.

[Wahoo]

For what it's worth...

Schuerholz is saying the only reason our payroll was at $96M in 2009 was because we collected insurance money while Hudson was on the DL.

That in mind, he said our payroll remain basically the same (or...'not at all diminished' I think the term he used). Which is "why" we should be at a figure just about $90M.

While it makes sense in a way...I'm not sure how insurance money makes a difference here. When you took everyone's salaries from last season and added it to the payroll and accounted for the $4.5M to the rest of the 40-man roster (Bowman suggests it's closer to $6M; $400K for each player) the payroll was $96M....even before insurance money was accounted for. Even if you do account for insurance money...it all sort of went to Hudson's salary.

Anyway...if someone wants to describe how the insurance money adds to (and effectively raises) the payroll, feel free to do so. I imagined it to be a wash...but this just seems like another Schuerholzian math class where the numbers just don't make sense and the only explanation for it is that we as generals "fans" don't understand the inner workings of how the finances are working for the team.


He really is a smug son of a b isn't he?

[Gman]

Back to baseball. With Vlad reportedly being offered around 5mil from the Rangers (no details on how much of that is incentive based) and Matsui getting 6mil from the Angels it might be setting a price for Dye that the Braves could swing. They may have to do a small roster moves to make it fit, but Dye for 1 year could be a really nice pickup. With Dye and Glaus manning the 4th and 6th spots in the order this could sure be a potentially powerful lineup. Melky and Diaz could do a "hottest bat" platoon in RF and give Dye a day off now and then.

Heyward could come in somewhere around the midpoint if he's raking AAA and give them a nice shot in the arm or a corner OF injury replacement if needed. Schafer could be in AAA as well shaking off the rust, which is probably going to be necessary given the long time off.

[CanadaBravesFan]

Dye would be nice, but I think that we have enough guys as it is. I dont know where the playing time is coming from, and we all know that Cox doesn't just play the hottest player. He will stick with "his guy" until we are all sick to our stomachs. If we pick up Dye, then we have

McLouth
Diaz
Cabrera
Schafer
Hinske (possible OF - he is a Brutal IF)
Dye

all in front of Heyward. I for one think that he would bring us 2 things that this team desparately need. 1. a hitting beast 2. an offensive threat youngster that will excite the city. Giving him a full season under the guidance of Bobby Cox would be very beneficial in his development IMO.

[warefreak]

I think the offseason discussion is pretty much done guys. I don't think Wren is trying to "bluff" the rest of the free agents. I seriously think today's team is the team we start with in spring training and opening day.

I just hope that Heyward starts in RF and is everything that everybody is making him out to be. We desparately need it.

I'm excited as it is right now. I just hope Lowe is who we need him to be. That's the only thing that scares me right now... Derek Lowe. The injury bug too, but... that's inevitable and every team will have to deal with it.

[jlcct]

I would guess we are in position to have an average year as far as injuries go. You can't really tell but I'd make that assumption. Even an average year might seem terrible after last year though.

[Gman]

I think the offseason discussion is pretty much done guys. I don't think Wren is trying to "bluff" the rest of the free agents. I seriously think today's team is the team we start with in spring training and opening day.

I just hope that Heyward starts in RF and is everything that everybody is making him out to be. We desparately need it.

I'm excited as it is right now. I just hope Lowe is who we need him to be. That's the only thing that scares me right now... Derek Lowe. The injury bug too, but... that's inevitable and every team will have to deal with it.

I personally hope they don't "need" Heyward out of spring training. I would much rather see him get a 150-300 at bats at AAA and put up the numbers that make them want him.

I did a little checking and Manny, Fielder, Braun and ARod all got about 150-300 AAA at bats and they all mashed AAA pitching. Their adjustment period in the majors only took about 100 or so at bats after the AAA success. They all were in the .840-.860 OPS range at the ML level within 500 at bats of their callup from AAA. Braun did it with only 120 AAA at bats.

On the other hand Griffey got rushed after barely seeing AA ball and put up a .744 OPS in his first 450 ML at bats. Justin Upton jumped from AA to the majors in 07 and put up a .646 OPS in his first 140 at bats. In 2008 he put up an .816 OPS in Arizona over 356 at bats. Then last year he hit his stride and posted a .900 OPS. But in the process it took 496 at bats at about a .750 OPS level to get there and he used up a lot of service time in the process. Seems like Braun, Manny, Fielder and ARod got closer to their peak production more quickly after getting a few hundred AAA at bats. The Mariners actually tried to rush ARod in the early going but he was overmatched in his first 200 at bats so they let him get a few hundred AAA at bats in. He rocked ML pitching after that.

If Heyward is Pujols, fine. Turn him loose. But not many make the jump successfully and it can be detrimental to their development and to the teams record if they fail when pushed too fast.

[warefreak]

I should have been more clear. I was thinking long term about Heyward being what they make him out to be... not so much next year. Chipper is pretty much done being the heart of our lineup and I think we need somebody to really take his place as far as a 30 homer, high average production player for the future. McCann is good as far as catchers go but he shouldn't be batting 4th.

I really like that research you did though and you might have changed my mind about where I want him to start next year.

[Gman]

I really like that research you did though and you might have changed my mind about where I want him to start next year.

I'm getting ready for a fantasy draft so I'm looking at young 'uns like Heyward. That led to the findings. Found another perfect comp awhile ago. He's a LH hitter I really like, Carlos Gonzalez of he Rockies. The A's jumped him to the majors in '08 after a full season of 490 PA's in AA (.801 OPS) and no AAA. Gonzalez crumbled at the ML level putting up a .633 OPS in 320 some PAs. The Rockies wisely gave him a couple hundred plate appearances at AAA last year. When he responded with a 1.06 OPS they brought him up and he went on to give them an .878 OPS in 300 plate appearances. Plus he came up and handled lefties pretty well which I think is something Heyward needs to get at AAA. A nice diet of soft tossing lefties with decent breaking balls.

If heyward makes the team out of ST and has difficulty with lefties he's going to become a platoonie because the majors is where you win not where you learn. He'll be eating up service time while sitting on the bench which I think would be really dumb. Look at Gonzalez. The A's burned a year of Gonzalez service time for a .633 OPS. Stupid.

If Heyward turns out to be as good as advertised he's gonna cost 5-7 mil the first time he hits arb. Why face that after 2 years especially when you look at the track record of alot of the guys who got jumped too fast? He's only had 180 at bats in AA. They need to not screw up his development and escalate his service time by rushing him.

[The Rap]

It is Heyward's job to lose. His makeup and overall talent isn't being ignored. So we have him in RF with McLouth in CF and a platoon of Diaz and Melky in LF. Shafer is the defensive replacement who will get good playing time while resting others. Hinske won't hurt us too much as the backup to Glaus and a top flight pinch hitter.

[Gman]

It is Heyward's job to lose. His makeup and overall talent isn't being ignored. So we have him in RF with McLouth in CF and a platoon of Diaz and Melky in LF. Shafer is the defensive replacement who will get good playing time while resting others. Hinske won't hurt us too much as the backup to Glaus and a top flight pinch hitter.

Nope, the more I looked at it the more I think your wrong Rap. If they don't make any more moves I expect they will try to start the season with Diaz, McLouth, and Melky as the primaries and Hinske and maybe M.Jones (if he has a big spring) as corner OF backups. They'll try to go with that for as long as it takes until Heyward and/or Schafer pass the test at AAA. Schafer is the only wild card to me, but I think given he had almost 9 months of no baseball activity (and no at bats above AA) they'll want him to start in AAA as well, just so he can get his bat and confidence back.

[jamminHANES]

Cox always goes for 2 backup middle infielders, Jones is an insurance policy for Glaus/Chipper. He'll come up if one of them gets hurt and Hinske is forced into every day duty.

Schafer is a wildcard this year. I think they'll let him get a bunch of playing time in ST and start him in AAA. He should get his confidence back up and hopefully be able to come up and produce if someone goes down or does not perform.

[Andy G.]

I'm going to seriously reconsider my stance on the Vazquez trade if Melky Cabrera is even a part of a regular platoon to start the year. If another outfielder is not brought in, give the job to Heyward. He'll be at least as good as Cabrera. If Diaz starts sucking, which he won't, then consider platooning Melky with him.

It's good that we have another outfielder who can play center, but I would not give him regular starts.

[bravos4evr]

I'm going to seriously reconsider my stance on the Vazquez trade if Melky Cabrera is even a part of a regular platoon to start the year. If another outfielder is not brought in, give the job to Heyward. He'll be at least as good as Cabrera. If Diaz starts sucking, which he won't, then consider platooning Melky with him.

It's good that we have another outfielder who can play center, but I would not give him regular starts.

Hence my entire argument about Melky's real value. As 4th OF'ers go, he's hard to beat, he provides at least average defense at all 3 positions, AND isn't a major stepdown in offensive production relative to to the league average 4th OF'er( relative to his contract I mean) He's Gary Mathews Jr at worst, and at 5 times less salary....
Once Melky becomes a starter...well, unless this is the year he comes alive, he's just average at best and kinda crappy at worst... He's (at this point in his career) just not a starter. I can't see Heyward being less productive than Melky Cabrera.... but then again, if Damon gets brought in.... this all might be moot. Cabrera could occupy the 4th OF spot and retain what makes him valuable(IMO, he's kinda like the OF version of Infante. not good enough to start everyday, but if you gotta plug him into the lineup for 15 days...it's not the end of the world).

[jamminHANES]

Melky's problem is that he doesn't have the power to be an every day corner outfielder and he doesn't have the range or defense to be an every day centerfielder.

[warefreak]

Does anybody not think that we are done? I would put money on it that is no way is Johnny Damon coming to the Braves. We don't have the payroll for it and other clubs will pony up quite a bit more than we can. This team is pretty much it. I believe what Wren has said that we are done for the offseason.

[jamminHANES]

Yeh, I doubt Damon happens. Wren said he needed a pinch hitter and then he was done, and the next day signed Hinske. Pretty much got the roster down.

[Dreamscape]

Melky's problem is that he doesn't have the power to be an every day corner outfielder and he doesn't have the range or defense to be an every day centerfielder.
I thought the fact he's an inept offensive player was the main problem.

[bmcvay10]

LaRoche has signed a 1 year contract with Arizona. Reports say the deal is worth somewhere between 4-6 million. This officially determines my opinion of this offseason as being a complete and utter failure. Had Wren played his hand even just slightly better, we would still have Gonzalez, LaRoche, and Javy - meaning we wouldn't have the uncertainties of Glaus and Wagner. Not only that, but we likely would have done a better job of upgrading the outfield considering we wouldn't have invested over 4 million dollars on Melky Cabrera and Eric Hinske. We damn sure would have been more active in the DeRosa negotiations. AHHH! It kills me to think how excited I'd have been if we could have retained LaRoche at this price. Not that he's great, but we could feel confident we would have his average production for 150+ games with his great defensive as well.

Sorry Wren, but what could have been if you had just sat a couple hands out is possibly 10+ wins better than the driftwood you bought us. Luckily none of this junk is guaranteed more than one painful season for in Atlanta. We could have easily won 90 games with this team.

McClouth
Escobar
Chipper
LaRoche
McCann
DeRosa/Nady
Diaz/Heyward
Prado
Pitcher

Hudson
Vazquez
Lowe
Jurrjens
Hanson

Gonzalez
Saito
Moylan
Medlen
Kawakami
O'Flarrety
etc.

When I look at this team, I see potential to MAKE the postseason and possibly go deep IF they did in fact make it. LOL, now when I compare the REAL team to this one, I suddenly realize we are more than a longshot to do anything exciting in '10

[Dreamscape]

Can you really make that argument, though? First off, there would have been no real good reason to go with six starters so a trade would have still occured, but irregardless of that, can we really know what LaRoche would have gotten in December? I don't think anyone saw the 1B market drying up around the players. Most were waiting for LaRoche to sign to set the market and as the one true known commodity on the market, he wanted the top dollar he could get, especially following the second half with the Braves. He just overplayed his worth. Had he taken the Giants' offer, he would have at least $14M extra in his future. The money was out there, he wanted more years (and maybe more money). Wren and Company couldn't count on LaRoche doing that. And what helped the Diamondbacks get him so cheap is the options LaRoche may have had (Atlanta, San Francisco, Seattle?) moved on so he was stuck with whatever he could find.

And just what makes DeRosa that appealing? The fact he can play all over the field? He's had one truly above average year with the Cubs and an Arlington-inflated year with the Rangers. For that, the Giants are paying $12M.

There are some real concerns with the Braves, but I'm not sure I see how Wren could have waited for all the pieces (many unforeseeable) to fall in place. And in what world is Mike Gonzalez ever a sure thing? After a career high in innings and games next year, I would be amazed if he stayed off the DL next year.

[Andy G.]

I'm anxious for the day when we can all relax and realize how good of a closer we have in Wagner. I understand that he's not a sure thing because he's in his late thirties and had Tommy John surgery not too long ago, but I don't think it will take long for people to get excited about him being in Atlanta.

Wagner is a freak of nature. He's only had a WHIP above 1.12 one time in his career, and he's only had fewer than 10 K/9 once as well. Both of those were in the same season, way back in the year 2000. It's not like we haven't seen him pitch after the surgery. His stuff was electric when he came off the DL. 26 strikeouts in 15 innings pitched doesn't happen by accident. Again, I know he's not a sure thing, and I know he didn't prove that he can last an entire season by pitching fifteen innings, but his stuff was not lacking even a little bit when he came back. He is one of the best relievers in baseball. He's healthy, and I think he'll stay that way.

[The Rap]

Plus his arm is now younger than the rest of his body ala the surgery. To me the secret weapon to our pitching staff might very well be Kris Medlen who I read glowing reports on today.

[bravos4evr]

Hmmmm, Laroche at $4mill or Glaus at $2 mill.....mmmm I take Glaus. His power is better, his year long consistency is better. They aren't even really close to be honest!

[Gman]

Hmmmm, Laroche at $4mill or Glaus at $2 mill.....mmmm I take Glaus. His power is better, his year long consistency is better. They aren't even really close to be honest!

I agree. A normal year for Glaus (like 2005-2008) is an OPS close to .860. For LaRoche it's closer to .840. I think the injury risk with Glaus is offset by the fact that he is a RH power bat (which the Braves lineup desperately needed). That he is also a solid defensive 3b is really a big plus as well because it provides Cox with extra flexibility if he has to deal with any extended time out for Chipper. On the defensive front, I don't see how Glaus will be much of a downgrade over LaRoche defensively at 1b. To me going from the hotcorner to 1b has got to be the easiest position switch in baseball. A good fielding 3b should be a good fielding 1b IMO.

By the way, I read something somewhere that said Turner Field is a much better hitters park for RH power hitters vs. LH power hitters. I never heard that before. Anyone know if there's stats to back that up?

[Lauren T.]

And just what makes DeRosa that appealing?
His million-dollar smile. :rolleyes:

[OF&S]

His million-dollar smile. :rolleyes:

His hot a$$ wife.

http://images.fashionmodeldirectory.com/model/000000133490-heidi_miller-fullsize.jpg

[bmcvay10]

I agree. A normal year for Glaus (like 2005-2008) is an OPS close to .860. For LaRoche it's closer to .840. I think the injury risk with Glaus is offset by the fact that he is a RH power bat (which the Braves lineup desperately needed). That he is also a solid defensive 3b is really a big plus as well because it provides Cox with extra flexibility if he has to deal with any extended time out for Chipper. On the defensive front, I don't see how Glaus will be much of a downgrade over LaRoche defensively at 1b. To me going from the hotcorner to 1b has got to be the easiest position switch in baseball. A good fielding 3b should be a good fielding 1b IMO.

By the way, I read something somewhere that said Turner Field is a much better hitters park for RH power hitters vs. LH power hitters. I never heard that before. Anyone know if there's stats to back that up?

First, if Glaus is healthy enough to put up your .860, he costs 2.75 mill or more. Second, I believe you will retract your statement about his being a right handed hitter offsetting his history (especially recent) with injuries, when his right handed stick is sitting on the bench. I don't care if a guy can hit 900 foot bombs with only his pinky from both sides of the plate - what good is that if he's unable to play? I'll sacrifice .020 (.010 OB%, .010 SLG%, for example) if I can get a player who is more reliable from a health standpoint.

[bmcvay10]

Hmmmm, Laroche at $4mill or Glaus at $2 mill.....mmmm I take Glaus. His power is better, his year long consistency is better. They aren't even really close to be honest!

I agree, LaRoche at 4 mill, is by far the superior investment. ;) He not only has played more than a handful of games at 1B, he is one of the best defensive players at the position in the game today. He also played a full season last year. Glaus, when healthy, may have more pop than Adam. However, his pop is only as valuable as his ability to step between the lines day in and day out. Not that Glaus cannot turn out to to be a good investment, it just shocks me that Wren has got some of you guys to convinced that LaRoche at 4mill wouldn't have been a miracle blessing had we had gotten him at that price a month ago.

I seriously doubt anybody would have been complaining that we let the great Glaus slip through the cracks, LOL. Come on Bravos, would you have seriously even given Glaus a second thought if we had been the lucky team to pick up LaRoche at 4mill?

[bmcvay10]

Can you really make that argument, though? First off, there would have been no real good reason to go with six starters so a trade would have still occured, but irregardless of that, can we really know what LaRoche would have gotten in December? I don't think anyone saw the 1B market drying up around the players. Most were waiting for LaRoche to sign to set the market and as the one true known commodity on the market, he wanted the top dollar he could get, especially following the second half with the Braves. He just overplayed his worth. Had he taken the Giants' offer, he would have at least $14M extra in his future. The money was out there, he wanted more years (and maybe more money). Wren and Company couldn't count on LaRoche doing that. And what helped the Diamondbacks get him so cheap is the options LaRoche may have had (Atlanta, San Francisco, Seattle?) moved on so he was stuck with whatever he could find.

And just what makes DeRosa that appealing? The fact he can play all over the field? He's had one truly above average year with the Cubs and an Arlington-inflated year with the Rangers. For that, the Giants are paying $12M.

There are some real concerns with the Braves, but I'm not sure I see how Wren could have waited for all the pieces (many unforeseeable) to fall in place. And in what world is Mike Gonzalez ever a sure thing? After a career high in innings and games next year, I would be amazed if he stayed off the DL next year.

Maybe I can't. Six Starters? Oh! you mean Kawakami... See, it's not ideal to have a 7mill long reliever/spot starter, but I'd damn sure prefer it over losing a legit number 2, who finished 4th in the CY Young the previous year. Then we go on, only to add an injury-proned 3rd basemen to play 1st base (this is real normal, most clubs do this :thumbsdown:). We give up the aforementioned CY Young candidate to bring in a switch hitting replica of Francoeur, a LOOGY, and a a top prospect at the age of 19. We made this trade in December, meaning we had nearly 8 full months to listen for a better offer (that's ok though, it's best to dump a goldmine earlier so you don't have to be bothered by those irritating phone calls from other GM's wanting to make better offers..:thumbsdown:). Moving on, we did pull off just a shockingly excellent move by gaining a LH utility player in Hinske... He's real valuable because he puts up a whopping .800 OPS vs RHP...(most teams that win search for guys like this to platoon with another average guy they already have..:thumbsdown:) Oh and we lost two of the best relievers in the league last year and replaced them with a 39 year old closer coming off of TJ surgery, and a 40+ year old setup man coming off his worst season. Did I mention Gonzalez is getting paid, I believe less than or equal to that of Wagner's salary. Gonzalez signed for 2 years though..whereas Wagner couldn't get a multi-year offer because he hasn't proved much of anything yet. (Once again..don't worry! This is business at its finest. It's only seems bad because we haven't seen our new 8,9 innings guys, combining for a swell age of 70+ get their newly strapped up tendons and muscles kicked into gear!! :thumbsdown:).

Yeah this offseason we became older. We became less of a threat in the East due to lack of any real certainty about half of our positions. Finally, we even managed to keep spending the same amount for this new bull$$*@.

Hate to say it, but I can't be positive about this anymore. We would be in a better position if we simply made no moves at all.

It's not about DeRosa. It's about being pissed that this season is more likely to be riddled with injuries than not.

[bravos4evr]

I agree, LaRoche at 4 mill, is by far the superior investment. ;) He not only has played more than a handful of games at 1B, he is one of the best defensive players at the position in the game today. He also played a full season last year. Glaus, when healthy, may have more pop than Adam. However, his pop is only as valuable as his ability to step between the lines day in and day out. Not that Glaus cannot turn out to to be a good investment, it just shocks me that Wren has got some of you guys to convinced that LaRoche at 4mill wouldn't have been a miracle blessing had we had gotten him at that price a month ago.

I seriously doubt anybody would have been complaining that we let the great Glaus slip through the cracks, LOL. Come on Bravos, would you have seriously even given Glaus a second thought if we had been the lucky team to pick up LaRoche at 4mill?

I would be upset that we let Glaus go for $2mill to sign Laroche for $5 mill!!! Yes!!! You seem to have the same kind of "old braves" player love that Bobby does. Glaus is a better player than Laroche. His injury history isn't what you think it is! He's a consistent 30 HR guy who crushes LH pitching and gives us a solid number 4 hitter to put behind Chipper. Laroche, hits around .230 until August year after year.... By the time he decides to hit, we may already be too far behind.... I love picking him up at the deadline, but I don't like having him around in May and June!

[Andy G.]

Maybe I can't. Six Starters? Oh! you mean Kawakami... See, it's not ideal to have a 7mill long reliever/spot starter, but I'd damn sure prefer it over losing a legit number 2, who finished 4th in the CY Young the previous year. Then we go on, only to add an injury-proned 3rd basemen to play 1st base (this is real normal, most clubs do this ). We give up the aforementioned CY Young candidate to bring in a switch hitting replica of Francoeur, a LOOGY, and a a top prospect at the age of 19. We made this trade in December, meaning we had nearly 8 full months to listen for a better offer (that's ok though, it's best to dump a goldmine earlier so you don't have to be bothered by those irritating phone calls from other GM's wanting to make better offers..). Moving on, we did pull off just a shockingly excellent move by gaining a LH utility player in Hinske... He's real valuable because he puts up a whopping .800 OPS vs RHP...(most teams that win search for guys like this to platoon with another average guy they already have..) Oh and we lost two of the best relievers in the league last year and replaced them with a 39 year old closer coming off of TJ surgery, and a 40+ year old setup man coming off his worst season. Did I mention Gonzalez is getting paid, I believe less than or equal to that of Wagner's salary. Gonzalez signed for 2 years though..whereas Wagner couldn't get a multi-year offer because he hasn't proved much of anything yet. (Once again..don't worry! This is business at its finest. It's only seems bad because we haven't seen our new 8,9 innings guys, combining for a swell age of 70+ get their newly strapped up tendons and muscles kicked into gear!! ).

Yeah this offseason we became older. We became less of a threat in the East due to lack of any real certainty about half of our positions. Finally, we even managed to keep spending the same amount for this new bull$$*@.

Hate to say it, but I can't be positive about this anymore. We would be in a better position if we simply made no moves at all.

It's not about DeRosa. It's about being pissed that this season is more likely to be riddled with injuries than not.
This is all based off of perception. You don't have a firm grasp on reality. Wagner got a multi-year deal, basically. Once he finishes fifty games this year, his option for next year kicks in, and he gets paid less in year two. Glaus is not a guarantee to be injured. That's just silly. Since when are players in their early thirties incapable of coming back from one injury plagued season? You're getting carried away.

By the way, Laroche isn't an above average hitter man. He's better than league average, but for a firstbaseman he's not close to being something special. Finding his production at firstbase is pretty easy to do. That's why teams laughed at his contract demands and simply moved on. Troy Glaus couldn't be more of a perfect fit for us. By mid-season, we'll all be talking about what a steal he was.

Also, if Mike Gonzalez earns all of his incentives he'll be getting nine million a year. He probably won't earn them all, but he'll reach some, surely. His base salary is the same as Wagner, but he'll earn more than our guy.

[Dreamscape]

On Glaus...there is a valid point to be made about his defense + injuries. Over the last three seasons, he has played 280 games. But Glaus was willing to sign for $2M just before Christmas whereas LaRoche was still looking for $30M over three years. To blame Wren for LaRoche's foolish demands is a stretch and I'm very willing to stretch, but let's just be honest here. Unless every team had dropped out (which is why LaRoche had no bargaining position and had to settle), the Braves weren't getting LaRoche for $4M. Overall, if Glaus stays healthy (which he did in 2008, by the way), at $2M, he should be a better player than LaRoche, who will likely see his numbers inflated at the former BOB (it's not the BOB anymore, right?).

Sure, the Braves may have a better deal on the table for Vazquez in July. Maybe. But it was never their intention to deal Vazquez. They wanted to find a taker for Lowe, but because that was impossible, they had to find a trade. It was Vazquez. It makes absolutely no sense to put Kawakami in the pen. Nevertheless, the chances of Vazquez repeating last year's success is simply not likely. Look at his career. Look at the last four years. Chances are real good that Vazquez isn't the amazing pitcher he was last year. He had a career year and true, I'd love to have kept him, but the Braves had to deal a starter and because no GM was drunk enough to take Lowe, Vazquez had to be traded. Frankly, the Braves probably should have put Vazquez on the market last July, but that's only hindsight.

Mike Gonzalez...before last year, Gonzo averaged 36 games a year in the previous three seasons. Before last year, Billy Wagner averaged 60 games a year in the same time frame. Now, Wagner has age going against him, but Gonzo is hardly some cinch to stay healthier than Wagner. The guy may rock his hip out of its place. And am I the only one who remembers how during the season, he seemed to be one hit away from disaster twenty times? Rafael Soriano? The guy who, if he stays healthy for a full season, wears down once August hits? I mean, they are relievers. You're taking chances no matter what. I don't see why the Braves should worry about this wash of players.

Now, I don't love all these moves, but I think the overreaction here is a bit much. The Braves might be no better than they were when the season ended, but I don't think we are any worse.

[Chris_Moderato]

On Glaus...there is a valid point to be made about his defense + injuries. Over the last three seasons, he has played 280 games. But Glaus was willing to sign for $2M just before Christmas whereas LaRoche was still looking for $30M over three years. To blame Wren for LaRoche's foolish demands is a stretch and I'm very willing to stretch, but let's just be honest here. Unless every team had dropped out (which is why LaRoche had no bargaining position and had to settle), the Braves weren't getting LaRoche for $4M. Overall, if Glaus stays healthy (which he did in 2008, by the way), at $2M, he should be a better player than LaRoche, who will likely see his numbers inflated at the former BOB (it's not the BOB anymore, right?).

Sure, the Braves may have a better deal on the table for Vazquez in July. Maybe. But it was never their intention to deal Vazquez. They wanted to find a taker for Lowe, but because that was impossible, they had to find a trade. It was Vazquez. It makes absolutely no sense to put Kawakami in the pen. Nevertheless, the chances of Vazquez repeating last year's success is simply not likely. Look at his career. Look at the last four years. Chances are real good that Vazquez isn't the amazing pitcher he was last year. He had a career year and true, I'd love to have kept him, but the Braves had to deal a starter and because no GM was drunk enough to take Lowe, Vazquez had to be traded. Frankly, the Braves probably should have put Vazquez on the market last July, but that's only hindsight.

Mike Gonzalez...before last year, Gonzo averaged 36 games a year in the previous three seasons. Before last year, Billy Wagner averaged 60 games a year in the same time frame. Now, Wagner has age going against him, but Gonzo is hardly some cinch to stay healthier than Wagner. The guy may rock his hip out of its place. And am I the only one who remembers how during the season, he seemed to be one hit away from disaster twenty times? Rafael Soriano? The guy who, if he stays healthy for a full season, wears down once August hits? I mean, they are relievers. You're taking chances no matter what. I don't see why the Braves should worry about this wash of players.

Now, I don't love all these moves, but I think the overreaction here is a bit much. The Braves might be no better than they were when the season ended, but I don't think we are any worse.

Uh...yeah. What that guy said.

[The Rap]

Billy Wagner was just picked as the 4th best RP by the MLB neytwork so if he is healthy I say just give him the ball. one thing we know is that has the swagger and know-how you want in a closer.

[bmcvay10]

Sorry guys..and girls. I was going through my mid-offseason crisis. I don't agree with all of you completely. However, I did get carried away. I'd like to post a good response now...but all I can think about is Melky Cabrera in a Braves uniform with $3mill on the back of his jersey. I'll return once these horrifying images clear out of my head.

[bmcvay10]

Ok..let's see if I can manage a rational response.

First I want to touch on Glaus' health, and what concerns me. Let me use a comparison to help explain why I feel worried about whether Troy will be able to take the field every day.

Average games played from 2003-2008 (keep in mind 2009 was exempted in order to cut Glaus some slack):

Chipper Jones - 129
Troy Glaus - 120

Obviously this figure favors Chipper more drastically when the 2009 season is included. Regardless, I feel like these numbers should help rationalize why I'm skeptical of Troy's ability to be the Braves' answer at 1B, as well as a critical offensive threat to help out Chipper and Mac. I think it's crazy to act as if I'm getting carried away by questioning a player's health that has managed 2 extra base hits (doubles) in 32 PA since undergoing major shoulder surgery. He has had health issues before this surgery. I think it's only natural to think there's a decent enough chance he'll miss some time in 2010. I think it's crazy to assume it's likely he'll not only be healthy, but also produce at a level similar to his career averages. IF he does..that's awesome. I hope he does as much as anyone else here. However, I'm sure as hell not counting on it.

Somebody made a comment about Soriano's 2nd half performance - how if he even makes it that far, he isn't any good. Here's something to consider:

Soriano's 1st/2nd half career splits. Innings Pitched and WHIP -
Note: The all-star break determines split, so it's not an even half of the season.
1st Half: 201.0 IP 1.095 WHIP
2nd Half: 131.2 IP 0.949 WHIP

He's pitched almost exactly as much in the second half of seasons as the first. Also, he's been better in those second halves. Soriano will be missed. Not arguing Wren blew it by allowing him to walk. I just like Raffy and had to defend him.

As far as the relievers go, y'all are probably right. It's a wash, and they're all risky investments. However, I will say that Gonzo's average appearances are much lower than Wagners because of several obvious reasons aside from any injuries. Gonzo closed for Pittsburgh, Wagner closed for the Mets and Astros. Did you really expect to see Mike's appearances averaging a whole lot? If Wagner can get a guarantee for 2011 via incentives...let us pray it doesn't come back to haunt us.

LaRoche is not a favorite of mine. I wasn't arguing in his favor because of a personal bias. I also realize the salary which he will receive from Arizona could have only been available to us under certain circumstances. That rant was purely motivated by my worries about Glaus health. Still, I would have preferred we had just signed a player of LaRoche's caliber with no health related issues, than signing only Glaus.

As for Vazquez, and the Yankees deal...I don't agree with that deal whatsoever. I'd actually be more accepting of this move had we not given Melky Francouer over $3mill. Hopefully the 19 year old prospect continues to develop for the next 2 to 3 years so we can gain more than a salary dump out of this shipwreck. It makes just as much sense to have Kawakami in our bullpen for one season (maybe even just a half season or less if we found a better offer) than have to pay over $3mill for average player on our team. Don't act as if Javy had to go after 2010 either. If Lowe pitches better this season, we'd likely be able to trade him for a greater return than we received from Javy. We'd also be able to re sign Vazquez at a cheaper price than we are paying Lowe. There were plenty of options with Javy. Now, he'll go to Yankee stadium, put up a mid 4 ERA and people will say, "see..told ya 2009 was a fluke year for him". Bullsh... Especially in a contract year.

Face it..we are relying on a guy who has averaged appearing in less games than Chipper to be our power hitter, two 40 year olds to handle the late inning relief work, Diaz and either Hinske or Melky to provide us with a platoon equivalent of an above average LF, either a rookie or Melky to hold down an outfield position, and the guy who averages more games than Glaus (which his health has been a common source of jokes here), to not only stay healthy, but bounce back from a career worst season. Oh..and Hudson to continue to pitch as he did prior to his TJ surgery, AND Lowe to bounce back from a down year. Should I even mention we are expecting Prado to be a beast?

The more I think about this season, the less optimistic I become. I think the fair prediction for this team is a .500 finish. Obviously they could do better, but they also could easily do worse. There are way too many questions regarding health and ability with this team to reasonably expect something special in 2010.

[Andy G.]

Face it..we are relying on a guy who has averaged appearing in less games than Chipper to be our power hitter, two 40 year olds to handle the late inning relief work, Diaz and either Hinske or Melky to provide us with a platoon equivalent of an above average LF, either a rookie or Melky to hold down an outfield position, and the guy who averages more games than Glaus (which his health has been a common source of jokes here), to not only stay healthy, but bounce back from a career worst season. Oh..and Hudson to continue to pitch as he did prior to his TJ surgery, AND Lowe to bounce back from a down year. Should I even mention we are expecting Prado to be a beast?
Here's the problem with this argument. You've got your perception of how unlikely these things are, and you lose sight of whether or not each individual player is likely or capable of providing the production we need from them.

Nobody's expecting Prado to be a beast. He only needs to do what he's been doing since coming into the major leagues. He's a good a hitter. He's better than league average, and at his position he provides more than enough production.

What's the problem with relying on Hudson? When is Tommy John surgery going to stop being talked about like it still ends careers? It doesn't. Hudson has had a better career than Vazquez. He's a top notch pitcher. We've got him at a bargain price. He will give us what we need.

Glaus played 58 games in '04, then played 149 in '05 and 153 in '06. Do you think that fans in Arizona were saying the same thing you are now about his health concerns prior to the '05 season? I bet they were. Fans see a player with injury concerns and convince themselves he can't be counted on in any capacity, yet the truth of the matter is that nobody can predict injuries. That's the nature of these things. They can come at any time to any player. Trends in a player's injury history don't always mean that he's more susceptible to injuries. It could be a case of bad luck. Even if he is more of an injury risk, does he miss time every season? No. He's had eight seasons with 115 games or more and three seasons where he's played fewer games than that. In seven of those eight seasons he played 149 games or more. The risk might be heightened, but the odds of him being able to go an entire season without injury are not as low as it may seem in your head. It's just impossible to know.

I don't know what Matt Diaz has to do for people to stop worrying about our left field situation. You already mentioned Hinske. I see no reason that Diaz alone or the combination of those two players won't give us above average production in left field.

Why don't you also focus on the things that have been upgraded on this team? We have an entire season of McLouth, Prado and Hanson. Nobody on this current roster is as bad as Francoeur, Schafer, Johnson and Anderson were last year. The team we finished the season with last year was not an 86 win team. We won 86 games despite giving over 1,200 at bats to the players I just mentioned. 2010 will see a much more consistent Braves team that won't dig itself into a hole during the first half the way they did last year. People want to say, "Forget about the team before Laroche came to Atlanta. Are we better than we were at the end of the season?" That's not rational. If we want to look at last season as a way to help us predict success in 2010, we have to keep in mind the improvements we made throughout that season, and the advantage of having those players from day one of this season.

[KB 34]

Question for you Gilley, I'm looking at a few of your recent posts and I'm seeing some serious optimism. Hudson and Wagner will be themselves despite recent TJ surgery. Glaus will be a huge steal and everything the Braves need. LF will be above average with the anticipated platoon. Lowe will seriously bounce back. Good things for Prado and no one like the FSJA group. The only injury risk in the bullpen is Saito.

If all these things I'm seeing happen this is a slam dunk 100 win team, maybe a 110 win team. Last season the Braves came close to making the playoffs yet there were some serious trainwrecks, see FSJA. Most seasons the Braves competed there were some trainwrecks to a lesser extent or some serious injuries like Javy, Big Cat, Smoltz TJ, etc. Are you that confident about this group? I simply can't imagine how good this team could be if all the question marks were answered with exclamation points.

[Andy G.]

Question for you Gilley, I'm looking at a few of your recent posts and I'm seeing some serious optimism. Hudson and Wagner will be themselves despite recent TJ surgery. Glaus will be a huge steal and everything the Braves need. LF will be above average with the anticipated platoon. Lowe will seriously bounce back. Good things for Prado and no one like the FSJA group. The only injury risk in the bullpen is Saito.

If all these things I'm seeing happen this is a slam dunk 100 win team, maybe a 110 win team. Last season the Braves came close to making the playoffs yet there were some serious trainwrecks, see FSJA. Most seasons the Braves competed there were some trainwrecks to a lesser extent or some serious injuries like Javy, Big Cat, Smoltz TJ, etc. Are you that confident about this group? I simply can't imagine how good this team could be if all the question marks were answered with exclamation points.
It's somewhere in the middle of what I say and what the doomsayers say. That's always the case. Of course the Braves will have players who get hurt or don't perform up to their capabilities, but so will every other team.

That said, I don't know why guys like Martin Prado and Matt Diaz are considered question marks at this point. I was one of the people who said both of them were over hyped and would never live up to the lofty expectations created by their initial success, but at some point we all have to accept what they've done and stop questioning whether or not they can keep it up. Prado's had 779 at bats and has posted an .810 OPS in the majors. His OPS was .822 last year. He wasn't playing way over his head. He was just getting older and progressing. Prado was only 25 years old last year. Matt Diaz has improved each season that he's gotten an increased amount of at bats. His OPS was .838 in '06, .865 in '07 and .878 in '09. You can continue to point out his '08 season as if those 135 at bats are more indicative of his abilities than the other 1,026 at bats he's had in Atlanta, but that brings me back to my point. What else does he have to do to quiet the skeptics? He doesn't have to be a .878 OPS kinda guy. He may not put up those numbers in a full time role or even a part time role in the future. But how much worse is he going to be? Are those 43 games in 2008 really enough to keep questioning this guy's abilities?

Yes, Hudson and Wagner will be back. Seriously, Tommy John surgery extends careers. It does not shorten or even hurt them. These guys are 100%. Both of them pitched in major league games last year and both of them proved that they had not lost anything on their pitches.

All I've said about Glaus is that we can't pencil him in for 160 games and 35 homeruns, and at the same time we can't assume he won't be a main contributor to this offense. People use twisted logic to explain why we shouldn't count on him, but the truth is that an injury he suffered five years ago has nothing to do with his health right now. There are reasons to believe he's healthy. The Cardinals knew how potent his bat still is and that his shoulder injury had more to do with throwing than it did with hitting. That's why he was on their playoff roster. He passed out physicals to general managers at the Winter Meetings.

Perhaps the problem comes from fans projecting a team's success. Everybody wants to pretend that they can predict within a range of 5-10 games how many wins the Braves will have. Since Glaus has injury concerns and they can't pencil him in for a certain amount of production, they go ahead and decide that a player whom they cannot confidently project is not a player that can be counted on to give any type of production whatsoever. This is especially troublesome when the player we're discussing is as important to our success as Glaus will be. If we stop trying to guess how many wins the Braves will have, we might be able to comprehend the nature of injuries in baseball. If we want to truly make progress in our conversations regarding this man's health, we'll have to stop trying to predict the team's overall success next year. But of course, this is more fun, so we'll keep doing it.

[Wahoo]

Here's the problem with this argument. You've got your perception of how unlikely these things are, and you lose sight of whether or not each individual player is likely or capable of providing the production we need from them.

Nobody's expecting Prado to be a beast. He only needs to do what he's been doing since coming into the major leagues. He's a good a hitter. He's better than league average, and at his position he provides more than enough production.

What's the problem with relying on Hudson? When is Tommy John surgery going to stop being talked about like it still ends careers? It doesn't. Hudson has had a better career than Vazquez. He's a top notch pitcher. We've got him at a bargain price. He will give us what we need.

Glaus played 58 games in '04, then played 149 in '05 and 153 in '06. Do you think that fans in Arizona were saying the same thing you are now about his health concerns prior to the '05 season? I bet they were. Fans see a player with injury concerns and convince themselves he can't be counted on in any capacity, yet the truth of the matter is that nobody can predict injuries. That's the nature of these things. They can come at any time to any player. Trends in a player's injury history don't always mean that he's more susceptible to injuries. It could be a case of bad luck. Even if he is more of an injury risk, does he miss time every season? No. He's had eight seasons with 115 games or more and three seasons where he's played fewer games than that. In seven of those eight seasons he played 149 games or more. The risk might be heightened, but the odds of him being able to go an entire season without injury are not as low as it may seem in your head. It's just impossible to know.

I don't know what Matt Diaz has to do for people to stop worrying about our left field situation. You already mentioned Hinske. I see no reason that Diaz alone or the combination of those two players won't give us above average production in left field.

Why don't you also focus on the things that have been upgraded on this team? We have an entire season of McLouth, Prado and Hanson. Nobody on this current roster is as bad as Francoeur, Schafer, Johnson and Anderson were last year. The team we finished the season with last year was not an 86 win team. We won 86 games despite giving over 1,200 at bats to the players I just mentioned. 2010 will see a much more consistent Braves team that won't dig itself into a hole during the first half the way they did last year. People want to say, "Forget about the team before Laroche came to Atlanta. Are we better than we were at the end of the season?" That's not rational. If we want to look at last season as a way to help us predict success in 2010, we have to keep in mind the improvements we made throughout that season, and the advantage of having those players from day one of this season.

I've got 10 bucks that says Martin Prado doesn't post an .800 ops or greater this year.

[Andy G.]

I'll take that bet. Why don't you think he's capable of maintaining the level of production he's provided over the first 779 at bats in the majors? It is because of what he did as a minor league player 2006, when he was 22 years old? It can't be because of what he did in '07, his last year in the minors, because his OPS that year was .794.

I think you're making mistake if you think that his numbers in the minor leagues, at the age of 22, are more indicative of his abilities than the numbers he's put up in the past couple of seasons where he's accumulated a season and a half worth of at bats in the major leagues. He's going to be 26 next season. The level of patience he's shown in the majors is consistent with what he showed in the minors, as is his ability to hit for a high average. The only difference in Prado now and Prado from four years ago is that he's added power, and isn't that what hitters do as they get our of their early twenties?

[Gman]

The best thing about Prado and Escobar is that they have both been productive and remarkably consistent offensively from season-to-season since their arrival. That's a great quality. Plus they are still in the early stages of their careers and are at relatively young ages (Prado just turned 26 / Yuni just turned 27). There's a lot to like here. They could have some career offensive years coming. But even if they don't they are still a solid middle infield combo at the dish. Now, if they both focused on becoming the best defenders at their position then I think the Braves would have something special. They both have the talents to play a lot better defense then they've showed so far. They have much better shot at becoming top-tier defenders at their positions then they do of matching the Hanley's and Utley's with their bats.

[Wahoo]

I'll take that bet. Why don't you think he's capable of maintaining the level of production he's provided over the first 779 at bats in the majors? It is because of what he did as a minor league player 2006, when he was 22 years old? It can't be because of what he did in '07, his last year in the minors, because his OPS that year was .794.

I think you're making mistake if you think that his numbers in the minor leagues, at the age of 22, are more indicative of his abilities than the numbers he's put up in the past couple of seasons where he's accumulated a season and a half worth of at bats in the major leagues. He's going to be 26 next season. The level of patience he's shown in the majors is consistent with what he showed in the minors, as is his ability to hit for a high average. The only difference in Prado now and Prado from four years ago is that he's added power, and isn't that what hitters do as they get our of their early twenties?

Be that as it may, I don't think he'll have an .800 ops this year, and of course, we are talking in at least 150 ABs.

[The Rap]

I'm not optimistic but I am not pessimistic because I learned over the years neither makes much difference. I also believe we are in a peculiar position as we have specific young un's coming to take over various positions. For example there is Glaus. Freeman is our future there and Glaus has to just take us from point A to point B. Glaus is currently healthy so we are off to a good start. Heyward might simply take over RF and who knows what Shafer is? The kid won a job last spring and then started off ok and then boom, he flopped. But there was an injury, one that is very serious when it comes to batters. Wrist injuries are serious and if you have ever read anything by Rick Wilton you will know that. But he had the surgery and has been working hard to make it back. The bullpen is older but still good as they are both healthy but it is also a position where Craig Kimbrel is talked about as the 2nd coming. As far as the starters go we are deep especially with the great arms we have coming up and the fact we have Kris Medlen who I think will be a major surporise this year as the 5th starter.

[The Rap]

Ok but let us now forget all thins and concentrate on the fact that Jack is back! 24 tonight!

[Dreamscape]

A little tidbit. Brandon Jones goes to the place old Braves go to die.

Pittsburgh.

[bravos4evr]

Just read this ridiculous article from I think the NY Daily News that said that a Mets insider told him that they may try to trade for Tim Hudson.... good luck with that!

http://www.nydailynews.com/sports/baseball/mets/2010/01/20/2010-01-20_molina_slips_mets_grasp.html#ixzz0dATc4spx


the paragraph about Hudson is like 2/3rd of the way down.

[KB 34]

Hudson just took a huge hometown discount to stay with the Braves, but he would have volunteered to pitch for the Mets if he could. He wasn't going to be a free agent or anything. Brilliant NY media reporting there. In other news every team will concede the season to the Mets and Yankees and the subway WS begins April 3 in case anyone missed the news. No one wanted to even bother competing.

[Hobbes]

That doesn't even make any sense. Why would the Braves ostensibly be interested in trading Hudson, and to an NL East rival at that?

In other news, the Braves may try trading for Albert Pujols.

[Gman]

"Try" is the key word.

They can "try" all they want to, but just because you "try" doesn't mean the Braves will take any discussions seriously.

Given Omar's track record since coming to the Mets you almost have to listen to any of his offers. You never know if he's about to make another one of his giant mistakes! Wright for Hudson! (remember you heard it here first).



.

[Lauren T.]

Ooooh, I might consider Wright for Huddy. As much as I love Huddy, I don't have a ton of confidence in Chipper as he ages, and I believe we'll need a 3B sooner than most Braves fans want to admit.

[The Rap]

Hudson for Wright and then sign Sheets.Biggest problem; Chipper.

[Chris_Moderato]

Hudson for Wright and then sign Sheets.Biggest problem; Chipper.

The Mets might as well keep their starting third baseman and sign Sheets themselves.

[The Rap]

This whole thing started with the Mets expressing an interest in Hudson so scroll back and catch up.

[Chris_Moderato]

This whole thing started with the Mets expressing an interest in Hudson so scroll back and catch up.

Yeah, I read the article yesterday. I was responding to your (and Gman's) post by saying the Mets ought to just hang on to David Wright and sign Ben Sheets.

[warefreak]

Dang guys...

It was a joke. Nobody in their mind would trade Wright for Huddy.

I still think we should sign Ben Sheets. If for no other reason to make sure he doesn't pitch for the Mets.

It would be great insurance in case Lowe can't turn it around, if Huddy gets injured again, or if Kawakami doesn't work out.

Do it man!

[The Rap]

Sheets wants 10 million a year.

[Gman]

Sheets wants 10 million a year.
Me and Sheets have a lot in common!

[KB 34]

If Sheets could make last season disappear he'd be in great shape. Good luck to him finding that kind of money. I suggest monopoly money.

[warefreak]

... Well guys he got 10 million from the A's.

GREAT news as I was seriously hating thinking of him as a Met.

Anyways, if the Mets offered Mejia and Wilmer Flores for Tim Hudson (and Sheets was still available) I would have done that in a heart beat!

[KB 34]

Of course trading Hudson was never an option. He just signed a contract and could have vetoed the deal. Furthermore, if he had any interest whatsoever in leaving Atlanta he would have declined the option and tested the free agent market instead of signing for well-below his market value the first chance he got. Sorry NY, Hudson says srew you, I'd rather pitch in Atlanta.

[Dreamscape]

The Braves are going to attend a Noah Lowry audition Tuesday, according to ESPN's Jerry Crasnick (http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2010/01/lowry-audition-set-for-tuesday.html). Lowry, a lefthander, missed last year with thoracic outlet syndrome (TOS), which apparently is a combination of pain in the neck and
shoulder, numbness and tingling of the fingers, and a weak grip.

Lowry hit the majors in 2003 and established himself as a solid middle of the rotation guy two years later, but in 2006-2007, the strikeouts significantly went down and everything else started to come to pieces. Injuries played a role as in addition to TOS, he suffered an oblique strain, an injuried elbow, and a forearm injury shut him down in '07 and killed his '08 year.

Two tidbits about Lowry...he hit his first homer off Derek Lowe and once played right field in an extra innings game in 2007.

[jamminHANES]

If we weren't there to at least look at him we would be making a mistake. Relying so heavily on the starting rotation means you must have a solid #6 starter. Lowry will likely sign with someone who will let him at least compete for a spot out of ST, but Rich Hill was only given a minor league deal with an invite to camp.

[bravos4evr]

I wouldn't mind picking him up if he's healthy on a minor league invite deal... I wonder if they might be considering him in a bullpen role and as another backup if we have a starter go down. Minor league deal with an invite wouldn't be the end of the world.

[Dreamscape]

Yahoo Sports rumors page reads like a guy who loosely follows baseball decided to comment on it and think of possible trades/rumors. The latest? Jim Edmonds is on the Braves' radar (http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/rumors/post/Tigers-and-Braves-after-Jim-Edmonds-;_ylt=Ajgsf6ZoKni9AitevYkSkLU5nYcB?urn=mlb,215944). While Johnny Damon didn't make much sense, at least he, ya know, played last year.

[bravos4evr]

Ya know though, I was a big proponent of bringing in Edmonds last year to platoon with Diaz cuz he still mashes RH pitching. I bet a platoon of he and Diaz would put up purty darn good numbers! Not to mention Edmonds would cost about a fifth, at worst, of Damon.

[Dreamscape]

But really, do the Braves have room for a platoon partner for Diaz? Looking at the bench as it looks right now, provided the Braves carry a 12 man bullpen, the bench has Ross, Hinske, Infante, and Cabrera (if Heyward makes the squad, which seems to be expected). That leaves one more spot. Do we need another fifth outfielder or would another infielder be better, especially when we already have the flexibility in the outfield with Hinske and Infante capable of performing.

And wouldn't whatever money the Braves would have to spend on Edmonds be better suited for a midseason addition, especially to a bullpen that frankly concerns me?

[bravos4evr]

I would sign Edmonds for pennies then flip Cabrera for a minor league arm somewhere.(cuz Cabrera as a starter makes me nervous) Save us around $2.8 mill I reckon.

[jamminHANES]

Melky would pretty much have to be the player flipped for Lewis for it to even be a possibility. The fact that they may be trying to move him gives us leverage to gain something else as well.

[Dreamscape]

Can Edmonds play at center field at his age? I know, we can technically put Infante there, but I'd rather have someone on the bench capable of playing center who wasn't a natural infielder. It is simply the wrong time to be looking for trades, though. You won't get much value.

[bravos4evr]

I don't really think we are in on Edmonds anyway. As you said , 12 pitchers,7 position players and 4 bench players right now. We add Heyward AND Edmonds we would have 2 OF'ers on the bench and Infante and Hinske for the infield.....(and Hinske isn't a SS/@b kinda guy) It makes much more sense to put an a good mid infield glove in that spot! Unless Heyward has no chance of making the team.... Then i could see this happening.

They grab Edmonds cheap,Platoon him or stick him in RF and put Diaz in left to start the year with Cabrera as the 4th OF'er, they then put Diory or whomever in the last roster spot for the infield. Then when June 1st rolls around, they send Diory back down as they wait to try and flip Edmonds (and since he costs little any return is decent). They bring Diory up, stick Heyward in RF and move on!

early lineup

Mclouth
Prado
Chip
Glaus
McCann
Escobar
Edmonds
Diaz
(that looks pretty decent...)

Then you swap out Edmonds for Heyward.. Not a bad plan.

[Hobbes]

I don't care if Edmonds costs us 10 bucks, I don't really want that showboating glory hound on the team.

[KB 34]

The Braves are looking at another old mediocre outfielder? They have enough mediocre outfielders already. If Edmond wants to play some outfield at AAA he can be my guest. He adds nothing to the Braves outfield these days.

[JanShan12]

I don't care if Edmonds costs us 10 bucks, I don't really want that showboating glory hound on the team.

I couldn't have said it better myself!

[Chris_Moderato]

For anyone interested, there is am interview with Javy Lopez done by these guys (http://www.atlantabaseballtalk.com/) whose podcast I listen to on a regular basis.

The interview isn't groundbreaking, but the conversation about the '95 and '96 World Series', as well as the whole "catching Maddux" thing are interesting.

[Lauren T.]

I can totally hear someone nose-breathing while Javy's talking. Ew.

[The Rap]

I am against Edmonds because as great a defensive CF that he was some of it at least was his own doing as he made the easy ones look harder than they actually were. I used to laugh when I heard him compared to Andruw back in the day. Plus I have a feeling he can't get around on a good fastball anymore anyway.

[Dreamscape]

The Braves have added (http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2010/02/minor-league-transactions-clark-hammock-loux.html) Chris Resop on a minor league deal. You may remember that Resop made the team coming out of spring training 2008, but had a forgetful 16 games. After he was demoted, he was sold to the Hanshin Tigers in July. He was there last year as well. In 57 major league games out of the bullpen, he has a 5.61 ERA and a 1.71 WHIP. Good minor league numbers, though.

[jamminHANES]

Played LF for one batter, epic game.

[bravos4evr]

Another going through with Resop's Fables.

Moral to this story is...

Playing left field for a single batter will probably not end well...


Ummmm Just BOOOOOO on the Resops Fables thing...just booo... actually, you know what just mooo, that pun was so bad it's like a cow making a pun, it just doesn't matter!!!

[Hillbilly]

98 mph and straight as an arrow. And of course we all know what "Resop" spelled backwards is...

[KB 34]

Provided Resop provides depth at Gwinnett and never gets called up I say it's a great signing. If he gets called up because there are lots of whatyoucallems then great signing but why can't the Braves stay healthy? If the Braves think he can contribute they need their heads examined. It's a solid signing at this point but nothing to get excited about.

[Dreamscape]

Smoltz on the Braves (http://blogs.ajc.com/jeff-schultz-blog/2010/02/10/smoltz-waiting-for-a-job-and-could-he-be-a-brave-again/): “Nothing is closed for me."

While highly unlikely that Smoltz would sign for a bullpen assignment at this point, I would really love it if he came back to Atlanta to fortify the pen some more.

[Gman]

Just read this article on Smoltz in the AJC Latest news on Smoltz (http://blogs.ajc.com/jeff-schultz-blog/2010/02/10/smoltz-waiting-for-a-job-and-could-he-be-a-brave-again/). I wouldn't mind at all seeing him brought in for the bullpen as a possible two headed closer with Wagner if he'd be interested in competing for that role.

I know it looked like he was done in Boston but once Carpenter told him he was tipping his pitches he sure turned things around with the Cardinals. His final 5 starts of '09 were really impressive 34in, 30h, 12er,4bb,37ks. I'm sure part of that early bashing he took was just the difficulty of coming back from surgery and part was due to tipping pitches. But those peripherals in his final 5 starts sure are tough to ignore. 4 of those starts were against the Brewers (2), Houston and the Cubs. So this wasn't all against scrub hitting teams like the Pads/Nats last year. He was missing a lot of quality bats and he obviously wasn't nibbling with only 4 walks in 34 innings.

If Smoltz pitches this year like he did at the end of last season he'd be a huge asset to the end of games. Cox could do an every other game approach with Wagner and Smoltz. Given their age and injury histories it might be a good way to potentially get the most out of both. You don't really need to worry about matchups with either guy because they can get anybody out if their healthy.

I know it sounds a little wistful and wishful but I really don't think he's even close to done. There's even potential for Smoltz to be better than he was at the end of last season. He's another year removed from surgery and he's had the time to figure out what his arsenal now looks like post surgery. I just think he's going to stun a lot of naysayers and it'd sure be fun to see him doing that in a Braves uni.

[Hillbilly]

Maybe Smoltz will still be unsigned when Saito...nevermind, I'm not even going to finish that one.

[KB 34]

I'd sign him to give the bullpen some depth provided he doesn't expect serious money and is willing to sign for half of what of other teams might offer him in July (the irony is pretty good). Smoltz could be a valuable bullpen piece especially if Medlen has to make a decent number of starts this season. I don't see an excess of proven depth in the bullpen right now.

[Chris_Moderato]

Look at this quote from a Jon Heyman article (http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2010/writers/jon_heyman/02/12/heyman.damon/index.html?eref=writers) about the Braves and Johnny Damon:

The Braves are the one eminently logical interested team. They need offense, have done nothing to enhance their lineup this winter and are a perfect geographical fit or Damon, who lives in Orlando, not far from where Atlanta's Disney training facility is located. Yet, at the moment, they appear to be running third in this derby. Early reports suggested the Braves were offering $4 million, with $2 million of it deferred. But sources have indicated they might have $6 million or so to spend.

What the hell? That's a nice slice of change to be sitting on going into the season.

[KB 34]

$6 million? I'd try to turn $6 million, Cabrera, Diaz, and 80-90 wins into a #4 hitter, $0 million, and a WS ring.

[Chris_Moderato]

I suppose they could be hanging onto some cash so they could add payroll mid-season in some sort of "difference-maker" trade.

[Gman]

Right...and if we do have $6M, it just means Schuerholz is a liar.

Then again, I do sorta "get" his statements about the insurance money for Hudson last year and what not and how (without it) we are closer to $90M than the $96M+ we reported last season.

If these "sources" are just people who are doing their own math based on last year's numbers like I did, then they are no more reliable than...well, me. If they are "insiders" and they are right, then...well, I have yet another reason to dislike Schuerholz; misleading info and all.

BFH, what possible reason is there for Schuerholz to let the world (especially player agents) know exactly how much payroll money the team has left to spend? Seems like that would be kinda dumb, no?

[jamminHANES]

It would be very dumb.

[Dreamscape]

BFH, what possible reason is there for Schuerholz to let the world (especially player agents) know exactly how much payroll money the team has left to spend? Seems like that would be kinda dumb, no?
I don't believe BFH is asking for Schuerholz to specifically cite how much money is left for the Braves, but most general managers wouldn't even go into it at all. Their stock answer would be "we have money for the right acquisition," not "our payroll is $95 million and we have $2 million left to spend."

[Gman]

And specifically to you, Gman. Since it was a direct question.

Why would it matter? Frank Wren said he was done a long while ago.
Apparently he wasn't completely done or the Damon offer wouldn't have been made.


Any monkey and their uncle who knows how to use the internet and a calculator (see reference: BFH) can see approximately (at least within a million or two, I would think) how much money is being spent on player contracts nowadays. It's no real secret, IMO. If you can ballpark the payroll within a couple million, you can ballpark how much a team has left to spend pretty accurately.
Agents can see what is being spent but that's only a part of the equation. That doesn't mean they really know how much a team has left to spend. Why do you think Boras is so frustrated? He's caused some very expensive losses for his clients because he over-estimated teams budgets and what teams would spend. He makes a pretty good living estimating what's on the table so if he can't get it right, how can the rest of us?

No one outside of the Braves Mgmt knows what Liberty has instructed them they can spend. Nor does anyone know all the terms of that budget. Is it flexible or is it a fixed yearly budget? What is their flexibility tied to. It's not just ballpark attendance. TV revenues, MBL product sales revenues, revenue sharing and radio revenues all come into play. MLB now owns a new TV network that is in it's infancy. Customer demand is causing most cable companies to pick it up as part of their standard package. That's lots of additional revenues for the teams. How much revenue that is and what owners are doing with it is as black a hole as how they are spending their revenue sharing.



Everyone can say what they want about Frank Wren and how terribly he tends to handle PR situations and his inability to keep secrets, but Schuerholz is terrible in his very own ways with the media. Some may find it brilliant how he hides the truth...I just got the feeling a long time ago that he has felt he was above giving us the real deal. We can't handle the truth? No. We can. He just doesn't want to give it to us.

Well...teams don't really owe exact payroll information to anybody but their owners. The game teams are now playing with agents is one of leaking good information and leaking misinformation. That has been clearly evident in the last two years of free agency. Even the Braves are leaking out their offers now. That never happened in the past. Teams are using this strategy because they saw how effective agents were at using this same strategy against them. Schuerholz and Wren don't really care if they muck up the spreadsheets of wanna be GMs everywhere. The just want to pay a little as they can for as much as they can get. Sounds like a reasonable thing to want this being a capitalist society and all.

[Gman]

Very well thought out, Gman.

But still.

If Schuerholz doesn't owe anyone but Liberty Media an exact payroll figure, why even discuss figures? He should have simply said "We are close you our projected budget. We have a little wiggle room for the right addition, but we are satisfied as is"

Still doesn't make the case for Schuerholz being honest.

I can think of a lot of reasons he might say things about the payroll like he did to Bowman but it'd just be wild conjecture on my part. The one thing you can probably safely assume with Schuerholz is that he had a specific reasons for stating what he did to Bowman in the exact manner in which he stated it. He's never been the impetuous sort.

Just because he isn't always forthcoming with everything we'd like to know doesn't mean he's dishonest. He has a lot of respect among his peers and within the industry. That's not something you get by being a dishonest person.

[KB 34]

Has JS done much that's not self-centered since "Built to Crash" was published? I really don't think so. I'm not sure on the money since the past couple seasons were difficult to predict with unknown amounts of Hudson and Hampton insurance money going to the Braves.

[Andy G.]

To be honest with you, BFH, I think you're just making up reasons to be mad at John Schuerholz.

[Andy G.]

I just don't see the big deal if Schuerholz said we only had a couple million, but knew that we actually had six million. I'd rather they give us inaccurate information in order to make the moves they wants to make than gives us full disclosure and prevent themselves from improving the team.

[Andy G.]

Enough of this episode of "Why are you a fan?", though.
That's not what this is at all.

It doesn't make sense to expect complete honesty out of the team's president regarding payroll. You're able to figure out where the money came from(in the event that we spend six million or whatever it is), can't you just accept that he had his reasons for saying what he did? Even if there's no obvious reason for him to do it, what's the harm? Why does Schuerholz have to explain to us why there's money after he said there wasn't any. He doesn't owe that to us. He's doing a job.

[Andy G.]

Really. I don't know. All I know is it's more than just disliking Schuerholz for the way he left things at this point.
I believe you. You want to know how much money there is and where it's going. I think you should just trust yourself to come up with the correct explanations without needing Schuerholz(I'm so proud of us for actually spelling out his name in this conversation and not just writing JS) or anyone else to explain it to you. There are some people who it's best not to explain things to, and I don't think it's necessary for anyone in the front office to give out any information they aren't comfortable with.

If I weren't a little bit drunk, I probably wouldn't have said anything about it. You know how it is, the filter goes bye bye. Also, if I didn't have firefox, I'd have a lot of misspelled words in this conversation, including like six in this post.

[The Rap]

Just throw in the fact that the number is something fluid and can change at a whim and this whole conversation is moot.

[Gman]

.....


I don't know. Maybe I just work in a business where you get fired for disclosing incorrect information to anyone? Maybe it's because I've always been told to tell people the truth while growing up? Maybe it's just because I'm super anal about numbers (hell, I work at a bank) and I just want to know/understand more than the average fan wishes to know? Really. I don't know. All I know is it's more than just disliking Schuerholz for the way he left things at this point.

Uh...BFH...you work in a BANK???? And you're saying you work in an industry where you get fired for disclosing incorrect information???????? Not to be disrespectful but i about spit out my popcorn laughing when I read that. Geez...the banks almost sank the country with the way they were reporting their numbers. :confused:

[bravos4evr]

I think that a whole lot of arguing has been going on over an issue that is prolly the result of either bad reporting, bad accounting by a reporter, or an agent manipulating a reporter as he attempts to squeeze another team for mo money!

[HaRdCoReBrAvEsFaN]

http://www.rotoworld.com/content/playerpages/player_main.aspx?sport=MLB&id=4606

EHH! Pretty Much sums it up...

[piratelooksat40]

I know we are pretty solid in the pen and there is some talk about Smoltz mulling his options like ther is some chance he may hook back up trying to finish his career with the Braves, but even though he is a veteran and I respect him as a once great pitcher who might have some upside left, what is your opinion on picking up a solid veteran reliever off the free-agent market like David Weathers. I know he is at the end of his career, but has been solid and might be a cheap option for some back-up in case of injury. Milwalkee has let him go and last season was not a great year for him, but he has seen it all from World Series on down and still has a little gas in the tank

[The Rap]

Yea but too little gas in too fat a tank IMO.

[-Dr. Brave-]

I know we are pretty solid in the pen and there is some talk about Smoltz mulling his options like ther is some chance he may hook back up trying to finish his career with the Braves, but even though he is a veteran and I respect him as a once great pitcher who might have some upside left, what is your opinion on picking up a solid veteran reliever off the free-agent market like David Weathers. I know he is at the end of his career, but has been solid and might be a cheap option for some back-up in case of injury. Milwalkee has let him go and last season was not a great year for him, but he has seen it all from World Series on down and still has a little gas in the tank

There was talk last year that Weathers was thinking about retiring. I'd rather sign someone who wants to play.

[Dreamscape]

I'll pass on Weathers. He hasn't had a good year since 2007 and he's already 40. If I had to take a chance on a reliever, I wouldn't mind sending out a minor league contract with an invitation to spring training to Luis Vizcaino. With Vizcaino, you are getting a guy who has always struck out plenty. If he keeps the walks to a minimal, he can be a servicable alternative to some of the younger arms flaming out.

Other than that, pickings are extra slim. You can take the former aces (Pedro, Smoltz), the former closers/possibly retired (Izzy, Percival), the LOOGY's who have been around forever (Embree, Mahay), or the guy from the Can-Am League (Gagne).

But I wouldn't mind giving Vizcaino a shot.

[KB 34]

Can the Braves get a court order barring Yost from managing the Braves if Viscaino's in the organization? It's for the good of the team.

[CanadaBravesFan]

B.J. Surhoff is only a phonecall away I guess.

[HaRdCoReBrAvEsFaN]

What No Brian Jordan?

[KB 34]

I was thinking the triple play could help this team; Cunnane, Franco, and Woodward. The bullpen, lineup, and bench get added to (addition occurs with positive or negative numbers)

[-Dr. Brave-]

I was thinking the triple play could help this team; Cunnane, Franco, and Woodward. The bullpen, lineup, and bench get added to (addition occurs with positive or negative numbers)

Don't forget about Brad Komminsk, Jeff Francoeur, and Brad Clontz.

[Dreamscape]

A small little tidbit...

I am expecting a lot of these type of projections for Jair Jurrjens for next season. Using Baseball Prospectus's SIERA (http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=10108), which stands for skill-interactive ERA, Jurrjens is expecting to take a major step back next year. SIERA is just another fancier way of projecting FIP or dERA or whatever. Basically, it attempts to take out the defense and luck side of ERA to give one general number.

According to most fielding independent stats, Jurrjens wasn't quite the 2.60 ERA pitcher he looked like. SIERA gave him a 4.38. They talk up his walks. They aren't terrible, but they are also not elite to expect his ERA to be south of 3.00 very often. But as BP says, Jurrjens is still young and can take another step forward rather than backward. They called it an interesting test case for SIERA this season.

Other pitchers likely to take a step up based on a solid 2009 SIERA paired with a bad ERA...Ricky Nolasco, Luke Hochever, Dave Bush, Carl Pavano, and Cole Hamels. Also likely to take a step back...JA Happ, Randy Wells, Matt Cain, and Kevin Millwood.

By the way...here is what SIERA is...

Skill-Interactive Earned Run Average estimates ERA through walk rate, strikeout rate and ground ball rate, eliminating the effects of park, defense and luck, while accounting for how run prevention improves as ground ball rate increases and declines as more whiffs are accrued, while grounders are of more materiality for those who allow a surplus of runners. The formula for SIERA is:

SIERA = 6.145 – 16.986*(SO/PA) + 11.434*(BB/PA) – 1.858*((GB-FB-PU)/PA) + 7.653*((SO/PA)^2) +/– 6.664*(((GB-FB-PU)/PA)^2) + 10.130*(SO/PA)*((GB-FB-PU)/PA) – 5.195*(BB/PA)*((GB-FB-PU)/PA)

where the +/- term is a negative sign when (GB-FB-PU)/PA is positive and vice versa.

[BigWorm]

I never liked Ruben Sierra.

[KB 34]

I can't believe Bruce Chen never panned out for the Braves. If only Mulholland and Burkett weren't run out there everyday....maybe.....