Thoughts on the Braves heading into the 2010 Offseason

[CharlotteBrave]

Disclaimer: I wrote this really as I was thinking, and there's no organization to my thoughts, but still wanted to get them out there...

I for one am extremely happy with the way the Braves have played down the stretch. As far as I’m concerned, Bobby has also been managing to win, which is nice to see. However; at the moment it's looking like the wild card is more and more of a stretch, and not to any real fault of the Braves, but because the Rockies are playing so well.

Anyways; I'm a complete novice compared to most of you guys, and like most novice posters I like to rosterbate a tad, and think about potential changes that can make the Braves a better team for the 2010 season.

Right now; we've got a great starting rotation, albeit an expensive one, but a great one nonetheless. The first big thing Frank Wren will need to decide is how to shuffle his 6 SPs. This is a hard task, because all of our pitchers offer something, all have been effective, and likewise all of our tradable ones are expensive. The best pitcher to trade would obviously be Derek Lowe because of his salary/production ratio. However, that's not likely because Lowe is a hard player to move. The most likely players to move seem to be either Javier Vazquez or Tim Hudson. Right now, I’m all about keeping one of those guys, and deciding which one to keep is almost a pick ‘em for me. I also don’t foresee the Braves getting a huge talent in return, I’d be happy if they went for a top 3B prospect.

We've also got a very good back end of the bullpen... One of Soriano or Gonzalez are likely to be moved, and potentially even both of them, however; I imagine the Braves will keep one, and my bet would be Gonzo at this time.

Right now the untradeable young guys currently in the Bigs are Jurrjens, McCann, Escobar, and Hanson. Three guys who may be valuable trade bait that have been called up are (imho):

Matt Diaz: I personally think he's our only current OF who we could actually trade for some value. He's not too expensive, he's a smart player, very good contact hitter, and solid defender. He's also cheap, and I think he'd probably offer the most value in a trade. I say this because we've got Garrett for 1 more season iirc, and he'd be hard to move for anything. We've got Heyward likely to move up, and Church could fill in until Heyward gets that call to the bigs. Then we'd have McLouth, Anderson/Church, and Heyward to make a really solid OF. Schaefer is also a wild card here as he could potentially come back from his injury playing very well.

Martin Prado: Like most of you, this does make one a little uneasy since his stock is high, but he's cheap and plays above his salary. He could be valued highly by some organizations looking for a nice 2B prospect/player.
Kris Medlen: I admit; I hate the thought of losing Medlen because of his high upside, and trading him would really be a big gamble. If we were to trade him, and he turned into the next Adam Wainwright, I’m sure we’d all be sick, and this is something that give me, the fan, cold feet. I think the scouts/organizations around the league likely don’t value Medlen all that highly, which means he may not be THAT good of a player to trade, since we won’t get much value for him. However; if he is coveted highly by some organizations, then he may get us some a player of value. I’m not in favor of trading Medlen unless it’s a no brainer though, because he could turn out to be very solid.

From there; I come to a point where I’m not really sure how to finish this post, I know that the Braves need a power bat, another nice relief pitcher, a 1B, and maybe even a 2B… What do you guys think?

[Middle Man]

OK, here are my own disorganized thoughts. First, G Anderson is a FA, so he's outta here. Also, Hudson has not been re-signed yet. I believe we have an option to sign him ($15 mil?). So he may or may not be back.

I'd love to keep all 6 of our starters, but that's a lot of money. I'm thinking that they'll either take a pass on Hudson, or if they feel they can get him to re-sign at a decent discount, they'll sign Hudson and then entertain offers from other teams during the off-season.

Which pitcher would they trade? In my opinion, there's no way a team will make a good enough offer for either JJ or Hanson. And they won't re-sign Hudson and then turn around and trade him. That leaves Lowe, KK and JV. I agree that there's almost no chance of another team trading for Lowe unless we pay a bunch of salary or take on someone else's contract problem - and there's not really any point in that.

KK might generate some interest, but the fact that the Braves apparently consider him to be their #6 starter really reduces his trade value, imo. Who is gonna give up much for another team's #6 starter? I also have a feeling that the Braves would be reluctant to possibly create hard feelings for fear of burning a future bridge.

That leaves JV. There's no doubt in my mind that a lot of teams would want him. The question is, how much would they give for a guy with one year left on his contract? Probably not much. I've changed my opinion on this over the last few months, but if the Braves are going to be serious about winning something in 2010, I don't know how they can trade JV. He's been too good to let go. Will he repeat this performance in 2010? Maybe not, but I don't know how you can let him go after his performance in 2009 unless there's a team out there willing to give more than you would normally expect for a one-year rental.

So, this brings me back to Hudson. I think the Braves will string him along for a while to see how low he might go and then tell him "no thanks" and we'll start 2010 with JV, JJ, KK Lowe and Hanson. And hopefully spend some of the savings on bullpen help. I'll save some random thoughts on position players for later.

[absintheofmalaise]

There is a $12mm team option on Hudson with a $1mm buyout. Hudson can void the option and forfeit the buyout if he wants to. I'm pretty sure there is a deadline for the team to exercise its option. Not sure what the date is though.

[IkeWagner]

I think it will be most interesting to see what OF bat the Braves get. Perhaps someone who has the time could list some realistic possibilities.

[Lauren T.]

Top players I don't want to see leave: Matt Diaz, Martin Prado, Tim Hudson, Jair Jurrjens, and Brian McCann. But whatever happens, happens. The Braves have certainly sent away my favorites in the past. :)

[ScooterBrave]

Let me be the first to predict that Schafer comes back next year and makes his place in CF. I stand by it.

I don't want to see most of those players go either, Lauren. Especially Diaz, his brother is good singer.

[CharlotteBrave]

I'd only want to trade away Diaz if a team was overvaluing him, and was willing to dump some salary for him.... If we wouldn't get a slam dunk, then it's not worth it, he's far to valuable.

I like where our team is at, and we obviously don't need to make many changes, but we'll definitely need to replace LaRoche's production (which will be hard to do), and we'll also need another bullpen arm for the loss of Soriano and/or Gonzo, if we want to keep this run going.

The one prospect I'm most interested in is Medlen, because like I said, I'm really high on this kid for whatever reason, and am not really sure where he fits into the 2010 scheme, because I think he's probably more valuable than long relief.

[JESouth10]

I would like this for next year

1.Carl Crawford
2.Martin Prado
3.Chipper(If he's back to normal, Yunel if he isnt)
4.Brian McCann
5.Yunel Escobar(Chipper If he's still off)
6.Adam Laroche
7.Nate McClouth
8.Matt Diaz(gotta put him here)

Bench:Brooks Conrad, Omar Infante, Ryan Church, David Ross, Reid Gorecki, Cheap solid Veteran Bat/Barbaro Canizares

Starters(in no particular order):Javier Vasquez, Jair Jurrjens, Tommy Hanson, Derek Lowe(too expensive to go elsewhere), Tim hudson/Kenshin Kawakami(one or the other will be gone)

Bullpen:O'Flaherty, Medlen, Campillo, Moylan, Gonzo, Soriano
-Im not sure about both Gonzo and Soriano being back but I would like at least one , preferably Soriano.

It would be nice to have a legit leadoff guy for the first time in a while by getting Carl Crawford. I know he's not the big bat that we've all been craving but he is a huge spark and a great threat at the top of the lineup.

It won't be long till we see Jayson Heyward, he might actually be starting the season in atlanta but i couldnt not put Matt Diaz in there(if Heyward is in Atlanta then he should not be in a platoon) . Also I think we will be seeing Craig Kimbrel before the allstar break.

By posting this I am by no means giving up on this season, i still think we still have a chance, just look at how were playing and also look at the Rockies scheduel it's pretty tough.

[Andy G.]

I don't know if I agree with it, but if I were to guess, I'd say that BFH is right about Vazquez. I think Hudson will sign a three year extension and Vazquez will be traded.

I don't think the Braves will go out of their way to sign an outfielder. They'll go into the year with Church and Diaz platooning in left field, McLouth in center, and somebody off the radar to play right field until Heyward is called up. There's no reason to sign somebody looking for a starting job all year, because chances are he won't produce more than our left field platoon anyway. Schafer will also be ready at some point, which would make Church the odd man out with Diaz being our fourth outfielder. I don't expect Wren to put much money at all into this position.

As for the bullpen, I believe Wren is in a good position to get seven quality pitchers out there instead of four good ones and a bunch of scrubs to pitch in mop up duty. Gonzalez will be resigned. Medlen will be used as a set up man with Peter Moylan. O'Flaherty will keep the same role he's had this year. By not spending much money on the outfield Wren will give himself the opportunity to sign a dependable reliever for the middle innings. Then there's Kimbrel. Once he makes it to the big leagues, we won't have to worry about finding a closer for a while.


Or....they can use the aforementioned uber-package of prospects we get from Vazquez to flip along with a guy like, say, Freddie Freeman for a legitimate power bat we can retain for several years to play first base.
What's the free agent market look like? If I'm right about the outfield, wouldn't we be able to afford to get that type of hitter in free agency? If so, we should have a really nice offense, especially once Heyward gets to Atlanta.

[CharlotteBrave]

What about Campillo, BFH? I think he may be our best bet as a long relief if Medlen is moved into a set up role.

Also; do you guys think the Braves plan on having Medlen one day become a starter in the bigs? (Like a potential 2011 rotation of: Hanson - JJ - Medlen - Minor - Lowe)

[warefreak]

*Bump*

With the Braves season pretty much over this should be towards the top.

I am truly hoping we hang onto these four pitchers and trade one of the other two. JJ, JV, Hanson, Hudson. If we can trade Lowe or KK for a good OF I would be all for it. Seriously the Dodgers have an allstar sitting on their bench most of the year that would probably have won us 10+ games if he was in our outfield and in our leadoff spot. I wouldn't mind eating some of Lowe's salary to give him back to the Dodgers for Juan Pierre.



Having an OF of McLouth, Pierre, Diaz/Church (until Heyward comes up) would be perfect IMO. McLouth would be better further down the lineup as he has power and Pierre is the perfect leadoff hitter that our team has been missing since Otis Nixon and D. Sanders.

I know our starting pitching is our strength but JV is too good to be traded. Robbing Peter to pay Paul just doesn't make sense. We have to make our team better in offense, but not hurt our pitching too much.

Honestly with how good our pitching is now I think we should go all in to win the pennant next year. We just need a little more offense and we can beat anybody.

Except the Marlins.

[bravos4evr]

Juan Pierre...... hmmmmmmmmm.......ummmmmmmmmmm......NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO OOOOOOOOOOOO!!!!

He's all hype and no play. No glove, no bat, no arm, just speed...... He had a good little run earlier this year, but there was a reason the Dodgers sat him when Manny came back, they new eventually he would revert back to no OBP , No power, no good..... sorry.

[JanShan12]

I agree! No to Juan Pierre!

He would just create more problems we don't need.

[Hobbes]

I agree! No to Juan Pierre!
I do not support your statement about Juan Pierre


But I can get behind this sentiment:
Juan Pierre......NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!!!!


:D

[JanShan12]

I do not support your statement about Juan Pierre


But I can get behind this sentiment:


:D

LOL No matter how you put it, I think the majority says no! :D

[KB 34]

A traditional leadoff hitter whose good is a luxury. Plenty of teams win without them and I could care less whether or not the Braves have one next season. Not many teams win without a single player in the lineup hitting 30 HR. In fact, the Braves only have two players about 20 HR right now. That needs to change really quickly, that much I'm inflexible about.

[warefreak]

I must be caught up in 2001 when he played for the Marlins and basically ran the Yankees crazy, but I love the guy.

The guy played like it was 2001 though most of the year and when you have a good leadoff hitter it affects the rest of your lineup. With him on first the pitcher usually gets so distracted he pitches mostly fast balls down the middle that your other players can sit on and crank. We've been missing this part of our lineup for a great many years. We've had very good #2 hitters trying to hit #1 for years without success. There's a reason why the Dodgers had a better record with Pierre instead of Manny IMO as they had PLENTY of offense without him and Pierre set the lineup up for success.

Don't get me wrong... if I could choose between a 30+ home run hitter and Juan Pierre I'd choose 30+ every time (unless it was Carlos Pena or Adam Dunn type player that usually have an average close to mendoza), but the only pitcher I would like to unload is Derek Lowe... and there is no way we are going to get a 30+ home run hitter in return for him... and there is no way we can sign a 30+ home run hitter with him on our books taking up all of our payroll.

I have loved most of Frank Wren's moves, but I hate the signing of Derek Lowe and that incredible salary more than anything.

[bravos4evr]

i think that people just think that Pierre is better than he is. Stat for stat he's got a worse OBP and SLG than Mclouth. He hits far less doubles than he should with his speed and steals at a far less percentage than Mclouth. Mclouth is a much better and far cheaper lead off guy .

[absintheofmalaise]

I can't find the information right now, but I'm pretty sure that players like Juan Pierre are more of a distraction to the batter than they are to the pitcher.
Dunn and Pena have chunks of Pierre in their stool. during his career, Pierre has created around 1.5 less runs per game less than Pena. The gap between Pierre and Dunn is even greater. The name of the game on offense is to not make outs. Dunn and Pena make less outs and hit for more power than Pierre does. It's not even close.