WTF?!?!

[Davey Crockett]

Can someone please explain to me why we are sending Brooks Conrad down to Gwinett and bringing Kelly back up? Looks to me like Bobby is playing favorites here.. I mean Conrad was batting .344


http://graphics.fansonly.com/photos/schools/asu/sports/m-basebl/99-00roster/p-conrad.jpg http://msn.foxsports.com/fe/img/MLB/Headshots/140x170/7558.jpg

... and he looks way cooler/tougher.

[Davey Crockett]

Also, another picture that fits well under the thread title WTF... is Larry wearing?

http://farm4.static.flickr.com/3165/2564497669_d024c2fb2f.jpg

[Andy G.]

Those pictures are hilarious. :D

There's a reason Conrad's a 29 year old rookie. I mean, it really stinks that he has to go down after hitting well while he was in Atlanta, but Kelly has more talent and more experience.

It might have something to do with the perception of other general managers. If Wren is thinking about trading KJ, putting him right back in the majors could be a way of saying that his struggles this year have been a fluke. It's probably not that. The Braves probably recognize that Kelly Johnson has displayed superior ability to Martin Prado over their respective careers and expect KJ to be their second baseman in the long run.

[Dreamscape]

Chipper kinda reminds me of the Joker...

And no, not the song.

As for Conrad's demotion, I know people loved on Conrad while he was here, but as gilley said, there typically is a reason a kid is 29 and still a rookie. Not to say Conrad hadn't earned his spot...I'm frankly amazed Norton wasn't DFA'd...but that's also not to say KJ hasn't earned his spot on this team. While his spot in the lineup is understandably lost, his value to the team is definitely higher, especially if he can be shifted to left every now and then.

And before anyone mentions how Diaz was an old rookie who hit well once he got a shot, Diaz had hit everywhere. Conrad is a lifetime .260 hitter in the minors who was only hitting .256 this year. Chances are, Conrad's numbers would have fell.

Now, I'm still trying to figure out why Norton is still on the club...

[BigWorm]

Conrad couldn't have done more to stay. He's a victim of the "perception game" that all major league GM's must play.

[BigWorm]

Also, another picture that fits well under the thread title WTF... is Larry wearing?

http://farm4.static.flickr.com/3165/2564497669_d024c2fb2f.jpg

BMAC- Chipper Dude I'm freakin wasted, what is this stuff? I pulled it from your private collection

Chipper- Let's see. That's actually an older bottle, from my ex-wife, which I received AFTER the divorce. Someone call 911.

[Lauren T.]

Mac looks like he's straight-up in LOVE with Chipper in a lot of those wine release party pictures. They make me a little ill.

[luvdembravos]

The Braves probably recognize that Kelly Johnson has displayed superior ability to Martin Prado over their respective careers and expect KJ to be their second baseman in the long run.

I don't agree with that at all ... KJ is a "goner" and the Braves are just looking for the right deal. I don't see him in a Braves' uniform next year.

[Agent-X-]

If by 'goner' you mean Prado is the new Braves 2B of the future, then I don't know... Prado has a long way to go.

We may need to find a new second baseman soon.

[Davey Crockett]

Mac looks like he's straight-up in LOVE with Chipper in a lot of those wine release party pictures. They make me a little ill.


http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_joI3gyA9y6k/RwRd9qXrNuI/AAAAAAAAAKs/VcxVLNIF_m8/s400/BabyChipperGL2.jpg

[Lauren T.]

Way to pull that from my blog, man.

[alaskabravesfan]

I am as excited about Martin Prado's current hitting as anyone...but realistically he is going to cool off at some point. He will probably cool off a bunch. KJ may be streaky, but I don't think anyone can seriously argue that overall Prado is a better baseball player than Johnson.

The same is true about Conrad. He got hot. I'm glad he did. But career numbers don't lie. He isn't as good at baseball as Johnson, either.

I think the Braves did the right thing. Prado is the hot horse. By all means, ride him as long as he stays that way. However, realize that he isn't the Braves 2B for years to come or anything...

[bravestud]

I don't know why everyone is so quick to say Prado is a fluke. He was a .300 career hitter in the minor leagues. He's always been able to hit. He never showed much power, but that's something that can be developed over time (look at Yunel). He looks like a much stronger guy than when he first came up in 2006. Personally, I think Prado is here to stay.

Having said that, I'm not down on Kelly either. I think his body of work says he's just having a down year, for whatever reason. I don't know if there's a spot for him on the Braves, but I guarantee you some GM is going to be very intrigued by him. Much more so than Francoeur, for example.

[RiknTN]

Prado........same as Diaz..........has proven he can get it done. But people just don't believe it will last. Some people "think" too much as far as I'm concerned. I have no reservations about either being everyday guys. Problems lie elsewhere. Like lack of power from at least 1 OF and 1st base. Solve those problems and this team is a contender.

[Chris_Moderato]

Prado is the man right now. He's a real sparkplug. I hope his presence in the lineup keeps things going.

That said, I get a bad Charles Thomas vibe from him. So, I think we should trade him to Oakland in the offseason.

[RiknTN]

Prado is the man right now. He's a real sparkplug. I hope his presence in the lineup keeps things going.

That said, I get a bad Charles Thomas vibe from him. So, I think we should trade him to Oakland in the offseason.

no...no...no.................lol

[KB 34]

Charles Thomas was a key part of winning a division title and getting Hudson. Yes, let Prado be more like Thomas because a #1/2 starting pitcher for cheap and a division title are really nice. I'm not thrilled about Conrad being sent down because to me he's a better option than Norton but like what has been said his age makes him not much of a prospect. Of course you ride the hot streak out and it's a minor shame the Braves but there are bigger issues out there.

[Andy G.]

I don't know why everyone is so quick to say Prado is a fluke. He was a .300 career hitter in the minor leagues. He's always been able to hit. He never showed much power, but that's something that can be developed over time (look at Yunel). He looks like a much stronger guy than when he first came up in 2006. Personally, I think Prado is here to stay.

Having said that, I'm not down on Kelly either. I think his body of work says he's just having a down year, for whatever reason. I don't know if there's a spot for him on the Braves, but I guarantee you some GM is going to be very intrigued by him. Much more so than Francoeur, for example.
I think you may be right, but it's difficult to tell right now because he is so hot. I'll have to wait until this awesome hot streak ends(hope it's not any time soon) before I can buy or sell Prado's new found pop.

Yunel's kind of a different story, though. His power has come from a change in his swing. I noticed it in the first week of the season, and it's why I traded for him in my fantasy league. His swing used to limit his power because he was trying to drive the ball by pulling his bottom hand through the zone, rather than opening up and allowing himself to roll that top hand over. This year, he's got a more traditional swing, with the top hand supplying the power. This is why his opposite field hits are down from years past. That's what I think anyway.

Edit: I can't say for sure that he's gotten fewer hits to the opposite field this year. That's just the way it seems to me. I could be wrong. I am pretty sure that he's changed his swing in the way I talked about. I remember when the Braves drafted him they talked about working with him on that, and said that they expected him to have good power once he was comfortable with the adjustment. Looks like they were right.

[Flying Spaghetti Monster]

SEASON TEAM G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS AVG OBP SLG OPS

2008 Atl -- 78 228 36 73 18 -- 4 2 33 21 29 3 1 ---- .320 .377 .461 .838
2009 Atl -- 72 227 35 74 21 -- 0 6 25 25 24 0 3 ---- .326 .393 .498 .891

His numbers this year match his numbers last season. He's been this good for his last 2 years ( the only time he's gotten any AB's in the majors worth mentioning) and last 450 AB's. I don't understand the fluke comments either. He's been very consistent , even with scattered playing time.

[Andy G.]

I think the scattered playing time might actually make him look better than he is. When he gets hot, he gets playing time. That's how it's worked over the past two years. The reason people doubt his power numbers is because in the minors he showed no power. His IsoSLG was less than .100. Still, he has gotten a lot of at bats at this point, and his numbers look good. bravestud made a good point about how much stronger he looks.

[jamminHANES]

I think the scattered playing time might actually make him look better than he is. When he gets hot, he gets playing time. That's how it's worked over the past two years. The reason people doubt his power numbers is because in the minors he showed no power. His IsoSLG was less than .100. Still, he has gotten a lot of at bats at this point, and his numbers look good. bravestud made a good point about how much stronger he looks.

This is Bobby's best asset as a manager. He gets the most out of his fringe starters like Josh Anderson, Omar Infante, Martin Prado, and Matt Diaz. The way they are used makes them seem like better players than they really are. When given a starting job for a substantial amount of time it becomes clearly evident that they are not major league starters but more utility men and spot starters that are very crucial to a teams offense and defense.

With all that said it is easy to say that Prado will never put up the type of season that Kelly had in 2007. Kelly brings much more to the table offensively than Martin does especially in the power and speed departments. I've been of the opinion that we should trade Kelly earlier in the year to let Martin start because it would

A. Give Kelly a shot at starting on a team that appreciates his abilities much more than the Braves do.

B. Net us a return on having two quality second basemen and potentially help our bullpen our outfield problems.

Either way trading Kelly at this point would be a borderline retarded move to make. You don't sell when the stock is at its absolute lowest. Kelly had 3 cortisone shots in his wrist so that is evident that his slump isn't completely attributed to poor talent or execution as a hitter.

[Davey Crockett]

Way to pull that from my blog, man.


...google images, man.

[RiknTN]

SEASON TEAM G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS AVG OBP SLG OPS

2008 Atl -- 78 228 36 73 18 -- 4 2 33 21 29 3 1 ---- .320 .377 .461 .838
2009 Atl -- 72 227 35 74 21 -- 0 6 25 25 24 0 3 ---- .326 .393 .498 .891

His numbers this year match his numbers last season. He's been this good for his last 2 years ( the only time he's gotten any AB's in the majors worth mentioning) and last 450 AB's. I don't understand the fluke comments either. He's been very consistent , even with scattered playing time.

ahhh....some of the people here will argue because his slg % in his 3rd season of Little League was down so his numbers now that he is a mature and experienced major league starter can't possibly hold up. Just the way it hangs here. :)

[Dreamscape]

I'm far more interested in his isolated OBP in t-ball. Guy never walked.

Just another Failcoeur, I guess.

[Lauren T.]

...google images, man.
1. I'm not a man, as several here can attest.

2. It IS possible that Google searched my blog, found the picture, and posted it as a search result. Had you clicked on the source, you would have seen that.

There's a rule here that says, "Always link to the source of your information." If you need a refresher, the rules are here (http://www.chopnation.com/boards/showthread.php?t=5).

[Freddy_Ballgame]

I think I've figured this out......if you had Chase Utley "fillin' in" for KJ, KJ would've obviously displayed his superiority, mostly by posting roller coaster numbers and being average in the field. It's the chem-trails causing this! If you have a guy consistently hitting and a guy who couldn't hit the dugout with a baseball bat, you go with the guy who has proven himself superior and dump the hitter! Now I think I know how Seth Rogen got in the movies.....:banghead: :no:

[Davey Crockett]

1. I'm not a man, as several here can attest.

2. It IS possible that Google searched my blog, found the picture, and posted it as a search result. Had you clicked on the source, you would have seen that.

There's a rule here that says, "Always link to the source of your information." If you need a refresher, the rules are here (http://www.chopnation.com/boards/showthread.php?t=5).

1. Yes, I am aware you are not a man - probably because your name is Lauren.

2. You're right, that's a definite possibility. My mistake for not quoting my source - I just figure since this wasn't a research paper for history class I wouldn't have to include a bibliography.

3. My question: What is the big deal here? I was simply making a joke. I didn't know I was breaking ChopNation laws ... or that people try to enforce them, but its good to know the message board police are out there to keep us all in check!


:cheers:

[Chris_Moderato]

Message board police aren't interested in this issue. Handle it among yourselves.

[Flying Spaghetti Monster]

Any excuse to mention her blog, yet again, is a good one I suppose. Just make sure to forward a portion of your proceeds from the copywritten material :P

[Lauren T.]

I'm very aware that my blog is NOT targeted to this audience, but sometimes I post things there that aren't mentioned here, and since I've had over 5000 clicks to my blog from this website, I'm going to guess someone besides me occasionally looks at the links.

FSM, I've had problems with people using my original material without my permission too many times for me to just let it roll off my back. (Most recently, DOB posted a picture I took at batting practice as the lead picture on his blog, without saying where he got it.) It gets annoying. Granted, that picture of Mac humping Chipper was originally posted by the AJC, but if "Davey" had bothered to go to the blog, he would have seen that I gave credit there.

[jamminHANES]

ahhh....some of the people here will argue because his slg % in his 3rd season of Little League was down so his numbers now that he is a mature and experienced major league starter can't possibly hold up. Just the way it hangs here. :)

Go to any other board full knowledgeable baseball minds and you will see criticisms of players who greatly improve once they hit the majors as well.

[Dreamscape]

I think I've figured this out......if you had Chase Utley "fillin' in" for KJ, KJ would've obviously displayed his superiority, mostly by posting roller coaster numbers and being average in the field. It's the chem-trails causing this! If you have a guy consistently hitting and a guy who couldn't hit the dugout with a baseball bat, you go with the guy who has proven himself superior and dump the hitter! Now I think I know how Seth Rogen got in the movies.....:banghead: :no:
I try to stay out of these, I do. But this kind of statement lacks any understanding of the context of the discussion. No one is saying Prado hasn't hit the ball well, or better than KJ this year, and no one is saying Prado should be benched in favor of KJ.

It's about progression of numbers and about the long scheme of things, not just the short term. Martin Prado is an interesting player, who in slightly over 2100 minor league at-bats, hit 90 doubles and 15 homers, slugging .393. In 627 major league at-bats (entering today), he has hit 43 doubles and nine homeruns, slugging a robust .455. True, he may have filled out, added muscle, etc. But doesn't it seem logical to argue that something is askew here and that the power he has suddenly showed might be a product of many variables, just not a sustainable one.

Not saying he absolutely will revert back to the Pete Orr he once was, but when you use the brick smilie, you might want to be more open to the discussion at hand, rather than acting like you're the one hitting your head against the brick wall here.

In contrast to Prado, KJ has seen an often-seen progression in his numbers. In about 400 more minor league at-bats than Prado, KJ has hit 43 more doubles and belted 60 more homers. Prado's season this year mimics KJ's first full season in the majors, though Prado has supplemented his OBP with hits more than walks like KJ did.

Knowing their history, you'd expect KJ to have a better major league career. Of course, KJ has been extra strength terrible with the bat this year, though his wrist injury may have played a far more significant role in that than any of us know. Wrist injuries are bad, but even worse are the bad habits one undertakes to ease the pain. As BFH just pointed out, David Ortiz's wrist injury had many claiming that his career was over.

There are valid arguments for keeping both or keeping one over the other. I'd keep KJ if I had to, though I'd only make that decision in the offseason. I like his history a lot more.

[RiknTN]

Dream....just asking.....

I understand where you are coming from using minor league numbers to justify trends expected in the majors. I understand the numbers and I understand you have to use the figures the numbers tell you. But a few questions come to my mind about this.....

1. How often do these minor league numbers actually trend out to be true once guys are in the majors? It would seem the pattern should hold...but do they? I'm sure there would be exceptions even if the majority hold thru their major league career. But are there numbers to support the majority of major leaguers hold true to their minor league numbers?

2. It would seem to me almost any regular player in the majors, in the first 3 or 4 years should exponentially get better because of: adjusting to quality, veteran major league pitchers........mature physically and mentally from late teens and early 20's into their mid and late 20's......and they make the adjustment of major league life, travel, money, groupies (oops), etc. So if they get better faster, they would accelerate beyond their minor league numbers curve. Seems to me...........

Now I know there guys who go all different ways once they hit the BIGS.....guys get worse and wash out (can't make adjustments)....guys continue on their curve....and guys get better........so I'm asking...how can you use the numbers from minor leagues and be as absolute about a 2 to 4 yr major leaguer when there has to be guys that fit in every category? (and MOST minor leaguers' curve would be toward the plus side of getting better as they get to the majors or they would never get there to begin with).

Career numbers would hold more true for a 6 to 8 yr major league veteran to me....because he's been there, matured, adjusted, etc. You see what you got playing at the top level. But minor league guys are still just kids. Still not matured or had to make many adjustments. It seems the jump to the bigs would mess up the normal continuation of learning.

Just askin'..........

[Dreamscape]

At no point am I absolute, Rik. There is no fullproof way of judging players, their progressions, and/or regressions. But I do know that minor league numbers have a way of showing a glimpse into a player. Not just the numbers, but the age they attain those numbers and with how many games of experience needed.

1. I'm not sure what you mean by "hold true." There is a level of deviation to be had with numbers. Slugging is one of the numbers that often comes with age, for instance, which bolds pretty well for Prado. Chipper, for instance, only slugged .485 in the minors, more than sixty points below his major league number. His isolated OBP has also improved. Brian McCann has one of my favorite minor league numbers. His slugging was never all that special, but his isolated OBP improved at nearly every level, a sign of a maturing hitter (and one reason I never liked Francoeur). Again, I don't completely understand your question. I do think that in the majority of cases, a great young hitter in the minors will become a good-to-great hitter in the majors. I define "great" in that argument to mean maturing as a hitter and hitting well against often older pitchers.

It would take me some time to get a true sample size on just what kind of deviation we are looking at from minor league numbers to major league numbers. If that is what you are looking for, I'm sure there are better studies than I could do at places like hardball times and baseball prospectus.

2. While there is some validity to comfort, I don't think it's a huge variable. The majority of guys who wash out had flaws inherent in their numbers. Francoeur never improved in the minors when it came to plate discipline, for instance. Rarely does a flawless player come along so there will be problems. For Johnson, it was strikeouts and defense. For Prado, it was lack of on-base and pop.

Bottom line is hitters hit in my opinion. Good ones with a complete understanding of hitting will conquer their flaws, or at least produce solidily despite them. Obviously, Prado has done that in his limited action as a starter and KJ has regressed from being a young bright hitter to being an overly aggressive one.

But I don't believe you have to have a wealth of numbers to make judgements on a player. While no player will stay the same every year and adjustments will be made; some players will have career years and down years and so forth...there are signs in the numbers as to how good a player can be, will be, or won't be. Now, some players just go against all stats and occassionally have a great career. But as Fever Pitch said, in baseball, you can't fake it. Eventually, in most cases, flukes are found. Chuck James was found. Jeff Francoeur was found. Charles Thomas, Nick Green, Pete Orr, Jorge Sosa, and others have been found. Doesn't mean Prado can't be successful. But if I had to make a decision on who I would take going forward, I would take the guy I know has the potential to be a stud and take my chances rather than hope the guy continues to show increased maturity.

Again, it's not to say I don't want Prado to succeed and go against the numbers. In fact, before my KJ love obsession began, I was talking up Prado starting at second in 2007 for his defense while KJ went to Richmond and worked on it. I just don't trust sudden pop more than I do continued pop from the minors to the majors.

[Freddy_Ballgame]

The brick smilie only suggests my own feeling of frustration because KJ has a golden boy status. As this team goes, right now, not looking at minor league stats which suggest things, Prado should be the obvious choice. Some claiming that KJ has already "proved" himself better just don't get it. At this point in time, Prado is producing, KJ is not. The team is starving for hits and guys who get on base. Prado is giving them that. Whether it lasts throughout a career, no one can say. The same holds true for KJ. There's no way of knowing if he can ever revert to his old up-and-down self. I'd keep both and I hope they keep Escobar, too. As he matures I believe he has the chance to be the shortstop in the NL and I'd much rather see him hit his peak as a Brave.

[Davey Crockett]

...I'm not thrilled about Conrad being sent down because to me he's a better option than Norton...
:bouncy::thumbsup:

[jamminHANES]

Prado is producing, KJ is not. The team is starving for hits and guys who get on base. Prado is giving them that. Whether it lasts throughout a career, no one can say.

Whether it lasts throughout the week is a better question. Everyone who watches the Braves for the past few seasons understands that Kelly is a streaky hitter. Some months he'll hit .211 with a .280 OBP and a homer while in other months he hits .345 with a .410 OBP and 5 homers. Obviously with his wrist injury and poor performance Prado was given a chance and rightfully so. Now with Kelly back and having hit 3 homers in the past week along with a few doubles scattered in there it is obvious that Kelly has refocused and is locked in. We have to capitalize on Kelly's hot streak and get him in the game and whether or not that means sitting Anderson, Prado, or Kotchman at different times we have to make it happen.

[Andy G.]

We have too many hot hitters to put in our lineup. Who saw that coming?

I know one thing. We're not starving for hits.

[Dreamscape]

I'm not sure anyone is arguing KJ over Prado right now. Maybe for next season, but not right now. Though, as jammin pointed out, KJ has showed a hot bat recently and should get some at-bats. Bottom line it is hard to believe that a healthy KJ couldn't outproduce Kotchman and/or Ganderson. He looks healthy. Rove players around to keep everyone fresh. The Cardinals used to this to perfection with Polanco, a player I often compared Prado to.

[hoosjon]

fortunately, that sounds like EXACTLY what Coxy may be doing:

http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/news?slug=teamreports-2009-mlb-atl&prov=sportsxchange&type=team_report

Manager Bobby Cox can take so long to make what appears to be the obvious move that one wonders if he’s lost his mind. Or is, at least, listening too much to his gut, which can happen.

Take the curious case of infielder Martin Prado(notes), who has hit beautifully with the Braves every time he’s been in the starting lineup. The trouble until recently is that he was only ever an injury replacement. All over the field, principally at second and third in place of starters Kelly Johnson(notes) and Chipper Jones(notes), respectively.

Only when first baseman Casey Kotchman(notes) missed time late last season and bench player Greg Norton(notes) was injured while replacing Kotchman did Prado get the chance to play (and hit) every day. He sparkled then, despite the fact that he wasn’t a first-baseman.

nd yet Prado was relegated to the bench to start this season, even as Johnson’s batting average headed south.

Finally, though, as the Braves slid down the standings despite their stellar starting pitching and defense and it appeared the division was in their grasp if they could get the offense going, Cox replaced Johnson with Prado.

Presto! The Braves took off.

“He’s great,” Cox says, “because he can give Chipper a blow at third, too. And first. And the outfield. And he doesn’t try to hit everything out of the park.”

“Your first two guys in the lineup set the tone for the rest of the lineup,” Jones says. “You’ve got a guy like Prado in the two-hole that’s hitting .320 —.330 and is on base, that’s when we can dominate from the start with guys like me and (catcher Brian McCann(notes)) and (shortstop Yunel Escobar(notes)) hitting with guys on base.

Prado loves batting second. “Hitting in front of Chipper Jones means a lot of things,” he says. “It means I see a lot of fastballs. And they don’t want me to be on base. I’ve got to take advantage of that.”