Poll

[wordslayer©]

i was going to make a poll, but since I have no clue how, then I'll just ask the question here.

Do you believe that major league hitters/athletes have hot and cold streaks?

[Dreamscape]

Yes.

And when you post a new thread, there is an option to "make new poll" or whatever. You have to read and yes, that hurts my head, too.

[wordslayer©]

Will work on the poll crap later, then. The reading I can do, it's the understanding that I have trouble with.

The reason I made this "poll" was because my gut is that players don't really have hot streaks. I think, after the fact, you look back and you can see it is a streak, but is it really because they were hot? A .250 hitter is not going to get one hit every game, so they have to come in bunches, but is that because they were hot? Can a hitter really be seeing the ball better, or can the pitcher just be a pitcher that he can hit?

Hmmm...hard to explain. If a player were truly hot, then we could predict that the next game they would continue to be hot, and I don't believe that, because I just don't think that past performance means anything toward future performance.

[barvos4evr]

I think guys go through stages where they just seem to be making good guesses on pitches, face a string of pitchers who match up to them well and are just not missing mistakes. That would be called "hot" I guess.
I also think that there are times when they get their swing a little funked up, or they aren't seeing the pitches and/or guessing that well, and keep fouling off mistakes and even the hard hit balls find a fielder. I guess that's "cold".

It may exist because if the hitter thinks it exists the psychological impact has to be real, and that may be the biggest boost and/or failing of all.

IMO streaks break either way due to either a change fixing their approach or swing, or maybe a pitcher comes in and really messes them up and can subconciously result in messing up their swing a bit.

[ChopTime]

Pretty obvious answer here, I think. There are times when you are doing everything right at the plate, and there are times when you start doing something wrong, and it takes you awhile to figure out what that is; sometimes you screw yourself up worse by trying things that only make your problems worse, which is usually what is happening when a player is in a slump. It's not that he's not seeing the ball, it's something in his approach that he hasn't figured out. Or sometimes it can be as simple as a lack of confidence (usually starting with a mechanical issue). But yeah, streaks are real.

[Middle Man]

...
Hmmm...hard to explain. If a player were truly hot, then we could predict that the next game they would continue to be hot, and I don't believe that, because I just don't think that past performance means anything toward future performance.

I think most streakiness is fluky, just as you describe. Just because you flip 8 heads in a row, it doesn't change the fact that the chances of getting heads on the 9th flip is still 50%. With hundreds of hitters and thousands of at bats, is it surprising that some hitters over the course of a season put together impressive "hot" streaks? Of course not.

Imagine hundreds of guys flipping coins over and over, week after week, month after month. Would there be some impressive hot streaks? Of course. One guy would flip 8 consecutive heads. Another guy would flip heads 21 out of 25 times, etc.

However, having said that .... hitting is obviously not the same as flipping a coin. One guy might be facing Nationals pitchers 7 out of the next 10 games. Another guy might be playing with a nagging elbow injury or with contact lenses that don't fit right. There are plenty of factors other than luck or chance that can affect a hot streak (or cold streak.)

But there's one thing that history has proven - over the course of a season, there's no such thing as a .527 hitter. If a guy hits .527 over 25 games, you can't possibly attribute it all to seeing the ball better or being in a zone or whatever. If that were the case, I think you'd occasionally see guys who could see the ball better over the course of an entire season, and as we know, that doesn't happen.

In my opinion, hot streaks are largely based on chance but can be impacted by non-chance factors.

[Wahoo]

It depends on how you define streak.

[Andy G.]

I think players can go through a stretch where they drop their back shoulder, or open up to early, or start their swings with their hands higher than they should be. That would certainly lead to a "cold streak". I also think that a player can go through a stretch where, from swing to swing, he has an abnormal amount of consistency in his fundamentals. He's putting a really good swing on the ball more often than usual, because for whatever reason he's very comfortable at the plate. That would certainly lead to a "hot streak".

At the same time, I'd say that most "hot streaks" are caused by the reasons you guys have pointed out. It's dumb luck. It's just the way things turn out.

The tricky part is deciding whether or not what a player did yesterday has anything to do with what he'll do today. I believe that if a hitter has a .333 career batting average, it doesn't matter if he's gotten a hit in his past ten at bats, he still has a 33% chance of getting a hit in any particular at bat. At the same time, though, if I were a manager, I'd ride the hot hand every now and then. When Infante was hitting the cover off the ball earlier this year, it would have been wrong if Bobby hadn't found ways to get him into the game, IMO.

[barvos4evr]

Gilley brings up a good point. Noone is really that consistent. A .333 hitter gets there by going 9-20 one week and following it up with a 2-21 the next week. Then a 6-23 and then a 4-19.....

IMO, the variables that make up an individual at bat in a game are only impacted by the prior at bat IF the batter is facing the same pitcher. However, the batter can get comfortable and in his mind anyway, feel like he sees the ball better and is more comforatable guessing along with the pitcher creating a hot streak.

[wordslayer©]

Yeah, I'm with you Middle man.

I have heard so many stories where players would burn the midnight oil....got totally drunk and wasted.....come to the park the next day, so hungover that they could barely walk, but then go out and have a career game.

Like Gilley said........even though, logically, I would know that a hitter isn't any more likely to have a hit the next day following a 4-4 day, if I were a manager, I would still feel like riding that "hot hand."

[Chris_Moderato]

Yeah, I'm with you Middle man.

I have heard so many stories where players would burn the midnight oil....got totally drunk and wasted.....come to the park the next day, so hungover that they could barely walk, but then go out and have a career game.

Like Gilley said........even though, logically, I would know that a hitter isn't any more likely to have a hit the next day following a 4-4 day, if I were a manager, I would still feel like riding that "hot hand."

I'd reference this topic (http://www.chopnation.com/boards/showpost.php?p=1721&postcount=1) I started, specifically the podcast I posted a link to, in a discussion of the "hot hand". The part about the hot hand is only a few minutes long, but it's very interesting.

[hoosjon]

I really feel like cold streaks are self-perpetuating for so many players. Billy Ripken has said that he'd NEVER ask Cal for hitting advice because Jr. was constantly re-inventing his swing and the second Billy tweaked his just a little, it would throw everything off. Frenchy is another example of that, maybe. Maybe even a hyper-example.

As far as hot streaks go, I think that baseball players might be able to "see" pitches better and "time" their swing. Just because a lot of players go through this and because you can flip a coin 8 times in a row and get "heads," I don't think that it necessarily negates the role that confidence, psychology, and even just feeling better and completely injury-free play.

In short, I think that "streaks" exist and play the "hot hand" whenever possible in fantasy sports, just as I assume I would, given the opportunity to manage.

[wordslayer©]

I really feel like cold streaks are self-perpetuating for so many players. Billy Ripken has said that he'd NEVER ask Cal for hitting advice because Jr. was constantly re-inventing his swing and the second Billy tweaked his just a little, it would throw everything off. Frenchy is another example of that, maybe. Maybe even a hyper-example.

As far as hot streaks go, I think that baseball players might be able to "see" pitches better and "time" their swing. Just because a lot of players go through this and because you can flip a coin 8 times in a row and get "heads," I don't think that it necessarily negates the role that confidence, psychology, and even just feeling better and completely injury-free play.

In short, I think that "streaks" exist and play the "hot hand" whenever possible in fantasy sports, just as I assume I would, given the opportunity to manage.

You make a fine argument, although I don't agree with most of the points, but I just had to "thank" your post, because you give out "thanks" like they cost you nothing. And since they are free, why hoard them, huh?

[barvos4evr]

Hmmm, I just thought fo something that may give a little change in the idea of "hot" and "cold".

What about players who seem to always have a monster second half?(like Laroche or Texieira) Doesn't it seem like those guys are "cold" early, not seeing the ball well, missing pitches they normally clobber? Then later on they seem to get it together?

I dunno, just a thought.

[hoosjon]

Or cold weather guys .... wasn't Steve Avery much better during the spring and fall?