Casey Kotchman or Kelly Johnson?

[Dreamscape]

I'm interested in when Kotchman and Johnson are healthy, where people stand. What combination would you prefer? Kotchman at first, Prado at second or Prado at first and Johnson at second. Whatever reasoning (offense, defense) is fine.

I prefer, surprisingly...Prado and Johnson. In close games, I would switch Prado to second and Kotchman to first for defense.

[-Dr. Brave-]

I like Kotchman/Prado... better offense and better defense. And it gives you the option to pinch-run for Kotchman with Johnson if he's the tying run.

[BigWorm]

Let it go Dream. Let it go. He's gone. Not coming back.

Kotchman's glove puts him waaaaaaaaaaaaaay ahead of KJ. Face it dreamadoodle, KJ is a defensive liability and Cox is tired of his ****.

[slowride]

Not even close for me...Prado and Kotchman get the nod.

[Dreamscape]

He will be back. Eligible to come off the DL in about a week. Already on his rehab assignment and showing his complete game. The fact he's not being moved around tells me either they are going to try to trade him or he's still in the plans to be at second. As for defensive liability, the one thing KJ has worked on his defense and his UZR shows he's been a much better defender, one of the few plus defenders the Braves have had this year. Prado has looked much better at first than at second, actually. Prado seems prone to carelessness in the field.

Everyone in Atlanta seems to love KJ and pull for him so I don't know how you got "Cox is tired of his ****". Never said a negative thing about the club. Never pulled a Francoeur and let his mouth talk before his brain. I understand hating a kid, though. I hated Francoeur. Worked out for me, I guess.

[Andy G.]

He will be back. Eligible to come off the DL in about a week. Already on his rehab assignment and showing his complete game. The fact he's not being moved around tells me either they are going to try to trade him or he's still in the plans to be at second. As for defensive liability, the one thing KJ has worked on his defense and his UZR shows he's been a much better defender, one of the few plus defenders the Braves have had this year. Prado has looked much better at first than at second, actually. Prado seems prone to carelessness in the field.

Everyone in Atlanta seems to love KJ and pull for him so I don't know how you got "Cox is tired of his ****". Never said a negative thing about the club. Never pulled a Francoeur and let his mouth talk before his brain. I understand hating a kid, though. I hated Francoeur. Worked out for me, I guess.
I don't know why KJ haters assume Bobby feels the same way, especially after he stuck with him for so long this year while Prado was only getting the occasional start. Once Prado caught fire, it was impossible to keep playing KJ. I don't think that means Bobby is tired of him.

I agree that he's either going to be traded or he's going to be back at second base in Atlanta. It could be that Prado will be traded while his value is at it's highest. Then again Kotchman could be traded for an outfielder with Prado moving to first base.

[Freddy_Ballgame]

I don't get this undaunted belief in KJ by people who otherwise quit on other players at the drop of a ballcap. I've said in the past that I like KJ but I need to see some real production. I don't consider his closing a washed up season on a hot streak as proof that he'll ever be anything more than Francouer was. He sucked this year, no matter how you try and alibi it. I hated seeing it. I really liked his chances to be a sparkplug for the team atop the batting order but he didn't get it done. Period. He didn't do it anywhere else in the lineup and he's not a defensive stalwart no matter how he showed improvement. If he comes back (Big if, there) and performs at a level that gets him into the lineup, GREAT! If not, maybe there'll be some takers. As for this poll, I see no reason to choose anyone other than Kotchman and Prado. Both are improving players who already bring some positives to the effort. I believe Kotch will develop into a Keith Hernandez type, capable of 15 - 20 homers and 80+ RBI. He's great in the field. That's good enough. Prado brings flexibility and a hot bat that aces out KJ until he quits producing. That's how I see it.

[Andy G.]

[COLOR=navy]I don't get this undaunted belief in KJ by people who otherwise quit on other players at the drop of a ballcap.
Hey. No fair. I don't quit on anybody. (Admittedly, I did bash Diaz quite a bit before this year. But I've grown to like him for reasons that have nothing to do with his production, and he's producing again anyway, so I'm a fan now.)

I've said in the past that I like KJ but I need to see some real production. I don't consider his closing a washed up season on a hot streak as proof that he'll ever be anything more than Francouer was. He sucked this year, no matter how you try and alibi it.
You don't count his first full season in the big leagues where he put up a .831 OPS as real production? Why is it that people continue to talk as if all he's ever done in the major leagues is suck?

I do understand not being sold on him. I understand thinking that he is the topic of way to many conversations, because he's not an elite player, and won't ever be an elite player. The point is that he has been a good player before this year. He played really well in his first full season. His numbers went down in his second year, which is natural. The sophomore slump is not a myth. It has been happening to players throughout the history of baseball. Check it out if you don't believe me. The problem is that he came back this year and regressed even more. Like I said, I understand not being sold on him because of that. How do you completely write him off though? Freddy, you said that you liked KJ and had hopes for him to be a sparkplug, then did a 180 and said that because he sucked this year, you don't see him as being anything more than Francoeur. Why can't he just be a slumping player?

That's total hypocrisy. You said you "don't get this undaunted belief in Kelly Johnson by people who otherwise quit on other players at the drop of a ballcap". So....how can you quit on Kelly after a half a season, and at the same time say Kotchman is "improving"? Have you looked at his numbers? Kotchman is pretty much in the same boat as Kelly in terms of the way his career has played out so far, except that he plays better defense. For what it's worth, I think Kotchman will be a good player too. The trouble is that he plays first base, so he has to make up for his lack of power in other areas. Anyway...

Why the heck is Kelly Johnson so polarizing? I'll never understand the frustration from some people every time he's talked about as being the player he was just two years ago, and at some points last year. It's crazy how so few people are able to take an objective look at KJ's career. I know, you are objective. I'm the one that's not objective. It won't end until he grows into a consistent player or is traded. I can't wait for one of those two things to happen.

[Wahoo]

Smart people know what the answer is. Clearly chopnation is full of dummies. :)

[luvdembravos]

Right now, I'd take Conrad over KJ. He's been horrible this year.

[JanShan12]

I'd take Kotchman at 1st over anyone. That leaves going with the hot hitter at 2B and right now that's Prado. I hope he can keep it up, but if he can't, I'm not against giving KJ another shot.

[bmcvay10]

How about Prado at first, Conrad at second?

[Freddy_Ballgame]

I can overlook KJ's success as easily as I can overlook Francoeur's early success. Both may be modern versions of Super Joe Charboneau. Super Joe was super for a couple of seasons, faded and vanished into obscurity. Also, why is treating KJ the same way as Francoeur, hypocrisy? I went south on Francoeur after he continued to flounder and then bristled when he was sent down. He fouled the organization in my eyes because they kowtowed to him. KJ learned from that or is just more realistic. I like the guy. I liked Francoeur. Both played their way out of the lineup and out of town. Until KJ re-establishes himself with real production, I don't see him as bringing much to the table. I don't see any hypocrisy in that.
I am giving Kotchman leeway because just like with the other two, he deserves the chance to prove himself. I like his defense, which this team needs. That is a plus. I like that he has the tools to develop into a good ML hitter. He may not make it to 20 homers a year but he should hit enough to drive in 80+ runs a season. If he can develop the skills to become a clutch hitter, he should be very productive. If he doesn't prove himself by the end of this season, he'll have a short leash, like Francoeur finally had and possibly KJ, if it should break that way.
I do like seeing Conrad in the lineup as long as he's hitting. He shows more pop than Chipper. Maybe we should be thinking Kotch, Conrad, Escy and Prado in the infield. Chipper's developing into a wonderful rally killer.

[Andy G.]

I can overlook KJ's success as easily as I can overlook Francoeur's early success. Both may be modern versions of Super Joe Charboneau. Super Joe was super for a couple of seasons, faded and vanished into obscurity. Also, why is treating KJ the same way as Francoeur, hypocrisy? I went south on Francoeur after he continued to flounder and then bristled when he was sent down. He fouled the organization in my eyes because they kowtowed to him. KJ learned from that or is just more realistic. I like the guy. I liked Francoeur. Both played their way out of the lineup and out of town. Until KJ re-establishes himself with real production, I don't see him as bringing much to the table. I don't see any hypocrisy in that.
I am giving Kotchman leeway because just like with the other two, he deserves the chance to prove himself. I like his defense, which this team needs. That is a plus. I like that he has the tools to develop into a good ML hitter. He may not make it to 20 homers a year but he should hit enough to drive in 80+ runs a season. If he can develop the skills to become a clutch hitter, he should be very productive. If he doesn't prove himself by the end of this season, he'll have a short leash, like Francoeur finally had and possibly KJ, if it should break that way.
I do like seeing Conrad in the lineup as long as he's hitting. He shows more pop than Chipper. Maybe we should be thinking Kotch, Conrad, Escy and Prado in the infield. Chipper's developing into a wonderful rally killer.
The part that I'm calling hypocrisy is your belief in Kotchman, and your willingness to let him prove himself. Your tired of Johnson, but still hopeful about Kotchman. I'll give you that Johnson's numbers are terrible this year, and even with Kotchman's numbers being less than impressive, Johnson's are worse. Still, Kotchman has gone down a very similar career path. His best year was his first in the big leagues, three years ago, just like Johnson. He hasn't been all that impressive this year, but you're willing to show more patience with him. I just didn't understand what was so different about them, but I guess Johnson has been on a different level of suck in 2009.

So, my bad. It's not total hypocrisy.

[jamminHANES]

KJ has the better upside to be honest. He has had a rough year, but he puts up better numbers in every other season. Baseball is not always a what have you done for me lately kind of sport.

[Gman]

Francouer came up and despite some rather obvious flaws showed impressive developing power and reasonable contact skills the first 1.5 yrs. When he left he could barely drive a ball over the infield and the swing flaw he came up with was still there.

When KJ came up he had a slow start the first month of his career then produced very well, showing extra-base power and excellent ob skills. The longer he's been with the Braves the more regression we've seen in both his slug and obp.

Kotchman produced well for the Angels and though not a HR hitter produced a consistent .450+ slug for the Angels except for his one injury year. Since coming to the Braves and getting the expert tutilige of Pendleton he's been unable to crack the .410 mark.

Brandon Jones showed signs of developing power posting .450-.500 slugs as he moved up from Myrtle Beach. Then he got his first extended tour of duty with Atlanta in early 2008. Since getting that exposure to the fine wisdom of the Braves hitting coach he has not been able to crack the .410 slug mark in AAA!

Jordan Schafer got his opportunity to play in Atlanta very early but all you had to do was watch the kid in spring training to see that a train would have to run over for him to not put up at least a .750 OPS with that swing and batting eye. Then he got under the wing of Terry The Train Pendleton and got splattered all over the tracks.

Andruw Jones used to pretty much ignore Pendleton and got a lot of heat for it. Then he started to listen and the rest is pretty much a sad history.

I don't know how many more of these obvious failures the Braves need before they realize that the advice Pendleton provides sucks the hitting skills and extra-base power right out of these guys. Getting him out of that role is a move that will cost them little and yield huge dividends IMO.

[Dreamscape]

Gman touches on a point I was more or less going to leave alone. I fully admit, I love KJ and have been a huge fan of his for some time. When you look at his numbers, and I blogged (http://www.chopnation.com/boards/blog.php?b=9) about this, there are a few things that really jump out at you that KJ has regressed in. He was a very selective batter when he showed up on the scene. It was the biggest reason he was so successful in 2007. He swung at just 1 of five first pitches that year. 80% of the time, he kept the bat on the shoulder. 6% of his at-bats saw the count go 3-0. While, that is only one percentage point better than the average, you have to remember that he was a leadoff batter that year with the very good Renteria and Chipper to follow. Pitchers knew they had to throw strikes to KJ and he still received a lot of 3-0 counts. Even more, he was slightly above-average in 2-0 counts, also. 17% of the time, the count was 2-0. 11% of the time, the count was 3-1. This allowed him to see 4.12 pitches per at-bat.

Since then, all of these numbers have gone down. While the marks are not significant, to me, it says that the coaching, whether it be Pendleton, Cox, or whomever, has definitely changed KJ to be more aggressive. I guess the idea being that if you take pitches, you might take the first pitch fastball down the middle. But KJ was a much more successful player taking pitches, working the count, settling on his pitch and not deviating. He has gotten away from that and if he can find it again, I have no doubt he will once again be a productive player.

[luvdembravos]

If there ever was a Braves' player who needed a change of scenery, it's KJ... and I have the feeling the Braves are going to give it to him within the next 6 months.

[Chris_Moderato]

If there ever was a Braves' player who needed a change of scenery, it's KJ... and I have the feeling the Braves are going to give it to him within the next 6 months.

That one I actually would worry about coming back around to kick us in the ass. Frenchy doesn't worry me.

[jamminHANES]

I've been of the opinion that Cox and TP have preached aggressiveness far too heavily to KJ. This was obvious last year when his average went up but his isoSLG and OBP lowered. If he were more patient he would still see the pitches he would drive between the gaps and over the fences.

[Freddy_Ballgame]

I've always been an advocate of a patient approach. It usually makes better hitters out of the ones who really work it. I know there are some guys who thrive on first pitches but they are probably the exceptions.
My own theory on why guys like KJ suddenly abandon the disciplined approach which got them to the bigs is a bit simpler than the aggressive approach being taught. I think it comes down to Cox not making any requests or demands of how they approach each AB. After you see the team's vets hacking away all the time, or most of it, you figure what the Hell? and follow suit. When no reprimands are given for letting your game go to s#!+, you're an Atlanta Brave!
(Regarding that hypocrisy nonsense, wouldn't it be more hypocritical of me if I didn't allow Kotch the same amount of time to show me something as I did KJ? I didn't watch him before he was in Atlanta so I'm basing my opinions on something I actually have a shot at seeing. It's not hypocritical, it's just offering Kotch a similar opportunity.) Oh yeah, include me in with those wanting to give TP the gate. I hope it's soon and I hope he's holding Cox's hand!

[Murphys#1Fan]

Prado too much a liability at 1st. Kelly too much a liability at 2nd and no bat. That pretty much answers your question. I would love to see more of Brooks in the second half by the way. As much as I want Infante back...I really like what I've seen so far from Brooks.

[Dreamscape]

The only non-liabilities according to UZR are Kotchman at 1B, Prado at 3B and 1B, KJ at 2B, and oddly, Francoeur in RF who was having a decent year thus far. That was based on 10 or more starts. The rest of the defense has sucked pretty hard. Escobar hasn't been as good, though injuries may explain that. Chipper has been downright horrible at third. McLouth is really playing out of position and Anderson is terrible.

Defense really lags behind in this argument. If you want to argue defense is paramount, stash Chipper at first, Prado at third, and maybe platoon KJ and Conrad if you're enamored with a minor league six-year free agent.

Chipper really needs to be at first.

Badly.

Oh, so friggin badly.

[Murphys#1Fan]

If you want to argue defense is paramount, stash Chipper at first, Prado at third, and maybe platoon KJ and Conrad if you're enamored with a minor league six-year free agent.

Chipper really needs to be at first.

Badly.

Oh, so friggin badly.

Not crazy about a platoon on the infield but I whole heartedly agree with you about Chipper at first. But then Chipper blocks Freeman who they have to be grooming for 1st base when and if Kotchman's contract is up or he's traded...which ever comes first.

[wordslayer©]

The only non-liabilities according to UZR are Kotchman at 1B, Prado at 3B and 1B, KJ at 2B, and oddly, Francoeur in RF who was having a decent year thus far. That was based on 10 or more starts. The rest of the defense has sucked pretty hard. Escobar hasn't been as good, though injuries may explain that. Chipper has been downright horrible at third. McLouth is really playing out of position and Anderson is terrible.

Defense really lags behind in this argument. If you want to argue defense is paramount, stash Chipper at first, Prado at third, and maybe platoon KJ and Conrad if you're enamored with a minor league six-year free agent.

Chipper really needs to be at first.

Badly.


Oh, so friggin badly.

Couldn't agree more. I would have made the move two years ago.

Only problem is, of course, as it was two years ago, we have no one to play third.

Not a position on the face of the earth harder to fill than third base.