Braves VORP

[quick]

Many of you are familiar with the SABRmetrics concept of VORP, or "value over replacement player". VORP is defined as:

"Value Over Replacement Player. The number of runs contributed beyond what a replacement-level player at the same position would contribute if given the same percentage of team plate appearances. VORP scores do not consider the quality of a player's defense. "

Looking at our current roster, here are the 2009 VORP stats (from Baseball Prospectus) excluding pitchers (anything over -0-means you are better than an average replacement player at your position):

McCann 22.3
CJones 20.7
Esco 16.0
Ross 10.3
Infante 7.5
Diaz 4.9
Prado 3.9
McL 3.3
GA (FOG) 2.9
BJones 0.8


After this group, everyone on our roster excluding pitchers has a negative VORP, meaning they are worse offensively than an average replacement player at their position.

Now, there is a shortcoming to this stat--it measures a replacement at your position. Ross may be a 10.3 VORP as a catcher, but it does not measure his VORP at another position. You may have to look at other stats to flesh this out.

Based on this measure, this should be our lineup offensively when Omar comes off the DL and Esco's leg is fully healed. The position in parentheses is the position for which the VORP stat applies at Baseball Prospectus. Obviously, if a player plays more than one position, as Inf and Prado do, this can confuse the issue:

McL CF
Prado 2b (1b)
CJones 3b
Ross 1b (C)
McCann C
Esco SS
Infante RF (2b)
Diaz LF

This batting order can be adjusted in a number of ways without stretching. Mac could surely bat fourth, Esco can be moved around, as could Infante and Prado.

I do not know if Ross can play 1st, but if he can, he should play there except when he catches every fourth or fifth day. Omar or Prado can be at 1st when Ross is not, and Mac gets the day off. When Omar is not in the outfield, BJones can be. Omar and Diaz can be switched in LF--RF.

Now this measure does not take into account defense, but can our defense get any worse than having GA in the outfield? He can make anyone's single into a double. I'd sit him and use him as my first pinch hitter because regardless of his VORP, he may be the worst defensive outfielder in the NL. Kelly is a weak fielder and has a terrible VORP, and Francoeur has a great arm but has other defensive issues, not to mention his 2009 VORP is next-to-last for all RFs in baseball.

Now I have no illusions that we will play this lineup card. Frenchy, KJ, and GA will be in the lineup most of the time, as Bobby hates to sit his vets, and we won't sit the light-hitting Kotchman at first. (Kotchman plays a power position and has a SLG of .379 compared to Ross' .573. Also, Ross has an OBP of .396 to Kotchman's .326. Enough said. If Ross is a decent defensive 1b, as most catchers take some infield at first, he's got to be an improvement offensively. Even being a catcher, Ross is probably faster than Kotch, as Kotchman is likely the slowest 1b in the NL ). The fact we are not playing this kind of lineup leads me to believe Bobby and his staff just don't rely on SABR tools very much.

Anyway, this lineup surely would score more runs than the lineups we are using now and may be as good or better defensively. Perhaps someone knows if Ross has any skills at 1B.

Your thoughts?

[absintheofmalaise]

I think you need to look at more stats like linear weights and runs created above average. These sample sizes are way too small to have much validity.
A replacement level player is at least 10 runs under MLB average for that position. They are on the bench except in cases of emergency or hanging out in AAA. Or, they are starters in Atlanta.
Click me (http://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/ATL/2009-batting.shtml) if you want to see how they stack up against average MLB players. It gets worse. Go to the BtRuns column. McCann and CJones are the only two position players that are anywhere above average. Every one else is right at it or below.

[quick]

I think you need to look at more stats like linear weights and runs created above average. These sample sizes are way too small to have much validity.
A replacement level player is at least 10 runs under MLB average for that position. They are on the bench except in cases of emergency or hanging out in AAA. Or, they are starters in Atlanta.
Click me (http://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/ATL/2009-batting.shtml) if you want to see how they stack up against average MLB players. It gets worse. Go to the BtRuns column. McCann and CJones are the only two position players that are anywhere above average. Every one else is right at it or below.

But the question I am asking is if we are looking at who we have right now, is this not the best lineup? I realize we have a rough roster, but unless we make a trade, this is what we have. With that in mind, does this roster work?

Oh, and thanks for the good link...

[hoosjon]

I think a fundamental problem with your lineup is the assumption that Cody Ross has a better value than a replacement catcher, so he should play 1B. I CERTAINLY am no fan of Crotch-man, but he is better than Ross, especially defensively at 1B.

You explained the problems with VORP, so you likely have already considered this. There's no reason to think that Infante wouldn't do better than Frenchy in RF or at the plate, but that has more to say with Frenchy's shortcomings than it does Infante's ability to field or hit.

Plus the way that Garrett has improved at the plate recently, maybe he should play LF or RF and Diaz should play the other.

After watching the Gwinnett game on MLB-N yesterday afternoon, I can't help but think that "Logan" Schafer, Brandon Jones, Clint Sammons and some others should be included on the team ... and we should send down SEVERAL individuals, ala Frenchy the other year ... except give them enough time down there to "develop some OBP."

Remember when we used to yell "Good eye!" every time the pitcher pitched a ball in Little League? I think Frenchy and KJ could TOTALLY use that.

If Gregor worked on his base-stealing and fielding, I would support him trying to start for our team, too.