BFH
11-17-2011, 06:13 AM
MLBTradeRumors did a contest...which I didn't enter, but oh well. I'll chop off the names that have already signed and go from there.
1. Albert Pujols - Cardinals. Lots of folks predicting he returns to the Cardinals, but I'll explain anyway. Very few players are the personification of a franchise. Like Derek Jeter was to the Yankees, Pujols is to the Cardinals. The scary difference...is that Pujols actually deserves this new deal. Ultimately, the Cardinals can't afford to let Pujols leave. They'll step in at the last second and make sure they win the bid.
2. Prince Fielder - Cubs. Theo Epstein isn't the GM of the Cubs...but I'm pretty certain he'll let Jed Hoyer know that he doesn't care if Prince Fielder is "fat". An OBP of .400+ in three straight seasons makes him the kind of player I feel Epstein and Hoyer will want to build the Cubs around. An over the top bid will likely get it done.
3. Jose Reyes - Brewers. What do you do when you lose your fat slugging 1B? Infuse the team with some dynamic speed and set Ryan Braun up for a monster RBI season. With Fielder leaving, the Brewers will have some money to burn...and why not add the marquee free agent shortstop? He and Weeks will create a dynamic 1-2 punch at the top of their lineup.
4. C.J. Wilson - Angels. I stated my opinion in a thread in the Braves forum, but I expect Wilson to land out west. He just seems like a good-weather lover and I can't imagine him--all things equal--choosing to move northeast if LA is an option. That said, the Angels can't do much on their offense and will likely be content with waiting for Kendry Morales' return. Adding Wilson to their rotation will allow them to stick it to the Rangers AND close the gap at the same time.
5. Yu Darvish - Nationals. I'll go out on a limb and say the Nats win this posting bid. They have Strasburg coming back, as well as Zimmermann. They just re-signed Wang and have Lannon on the back end. Grabbing Darvish to pair with Stras would boost their rotation from good to great on paper and help them take a couple of strides towards running down the Braves and Phillies in talent.
6. Edwin Jackson - Rockies. Colorado needs experience in their rotation and after restocking their system with the Ubaldo trade, Jackson is a guy I feel they may take the risk on to anchor their young rotation and provide some solid innings.
7. Jimmy Rollins - Phillies. I don't see a reason for him to leave and I don't see a reason the Phillies won't give him at least 3 years on a deal.
8. Aramis Ramirez - Marlins. They won't land Reyes...or Pujols...or Darvish...or any of the other big name free agents. I just don't think they can make guys believe Miami will suddenly change the franchise's past history in tearing down the structure and rebuilding on the fly. Aramis, though, seems to just be after money and job security. The Marlins could provide both for a couple of years.
9. Carlos Beltran - Braves. I'll bite on this one and get on the bandwagon. If he doesn't sign with us, I can see him landing in Boston to be their right fielder.
11. Michael Cuddyer - Twins. Not so much on the level of Pujols being everything for the Cardinals, but Cuddyer likes Minnesota and I think there are enough question marks surrounding Mauer and Morneau's health statuses that re-signing Cuddyer makes sense for the Twinkies.
12. Mark Buehrle - Marlins. He's the one guy Ozzie Guillen never threw under the bus in Chicago. I can see him going down to Miami and following Guillen to warmer weather to try and make a winner out of Ozzie's first season in Florida.
13. David Ortiz - Red Sox. I just can't imagine Big Papi leaving Boston. His swing is just designed for that stadium. I know he and the management got into a war of words, but I think when all is said and done, the Red Sox will try to keep their longtime DH on a reasonable 2-year contract.
14. Ryan Madson - Marlins. As I said...I don't think they'll land any of the big name free agents they are lusting over right now. Madson may not be the marquee name in free agency...but he's the top reliever available now that Papelbon has signed. The Marlins may do something stupid with their money and replace The Pither Formerly Known As Leo Nunez.
15. Hiroki Kuroda - Dodgers. He basically blocked his way into staying in LA last year, he won't consider pitching anywhere else. The Dodgers will re-sign him to ensure they have a veteran behind Kershaw to give them innings.
16. Carlos Pena - A's. He was there once...and he just seems like a Billy Beane type of player. On a one-year deal, I can see him going back there to try and post a strong HR total to net a bigger deal.
17. Francisco Rodriguez - Rangers. This is the winter they'll move Neftali Feliz to the rotation and K-Rod will allow them to do that without sacrificing the bullpen depth in front of the closer role. Mike Adams and Uehara will remain in more suitable setup roles and continue to shorten games for the Rangers.
18. Roy Oswalt - Yankees. After missing out on C.J. Wilson, the Yankees get desperate and give Oswalt a lot of guaranteed money to make AJ Burnett an afterthought.
19. Javier Vazquez - Tampa Bay. Kind of think the Rays may look to trade James Shields this winter in an attempt to land their cather of the future--perhaps one of Grandal or Mesoraco of the Reds. Once Shields is gone, I can see them offering Vazquez a one-year deal to hold down the middle of their rotation behind Price and The Hell Lick.
20. Heath Bell - Padres. He'll accept the arbitration offer and return to San Diego--whether or not he signs a long term deal is another question.
21. Coco Crisp - Nationals. They've been after a centerfielder for a while and I think they could help each other out here.
22. Hisashi Iwakuma - Twins. A strike-throwing control-artist of a starting pitcher. That screams Minnesota Twins.
23. Kelly Johnson - Blue Jays. Something tells me he stays in Toronto. I don't think the D-Backs/Blue Jays would've made that swap last summer if they didn't each want to keep their respective players.
24. Josh Willingham - Giants. After we steal Beltran from them, they'll resort to other offensive options. Willingham should sign affordably enough for their liking.
25. Paul Maholm - Royals. They need a veteran and I can see Dayton signing Maholm in the same light as he signed Gil Meche a few years back.
26. Grady Sizemore - Marlins. Miami continues a spending spree by guaranteeing Sizemore a lot more money than they probably should--perhaps over a two-year span. At this point they are spending just to spend and not even attempting to spend their money wisely.
27. Bartolo Colon - Blue Jays. They missed on every other free agent and I think they've seen Colon enough this year to feel comfortable in signing him to fill out the back end of their rotation.
28. Erik Bedard - Red Sox. I can see him sticking around in Boston to round out their impressive rotation.
29. David DeJesus - Indians. On a one-year deal he should have enough upside for them to take the low-risk chance on him.
30. Jason Kubel - Rays. Didn't have a strong year, but he's been a solid hitter in the past. Defense issues probably dictate him staying in the AL...and the Rays seem like they could be willing to throw a few million at him to be their DH.
31. Ramon Hernandez - Indians. Bucking against the grain here. The Indians have Carlos Santana, but I really do feel they want to keep his legs fresh. They'll have him spend more time at 1B with Hafner DH'ing after they sign Hernandez.
32. Jeff Francis - Padres. Cheap addition to a young rotation that lacked an experienced veteran last year. Seems like a decent fit to me.
33. Chris Capuano - Pirates. They need to go cheap to fill out their rotation and Capuano might just be cheap enough to do that.
34. Tsuyoshi Wada - Blue Jays. Yet another name to fill out their rotation.
35. Clint Barmes - Cardinals. He seems like the Cardinal type. Scrappy, defensive player. After going big on Pujols, they'll have to skimp here to fill out their roster.
36. Casey Kotchman - Rays. They obviously like him and are pleased with his production. What's another few years to play some D and get a few big hits here and there?
37. Freddy Garcia - Orioles. Cheap veteran addition to add to their stable of young starters.
39. Johnny Damon - A's. Beane loved him back around the time Moneyball was written...but not enough to pay premium price to keep him. He's not the same guy who left so many years ago...but he's still good enough for Beane's purposes of DH'ing everyday.
40. Aaron Harang - D-Backs. They have a need for a veteran starter to eat some innings for them. They'll probably regret this one, but desperation makes you do dumb things.
42. Rafael Furcal - Pirates. Since the Cardinals couldn't spend the required money to keep Furcal, the Pirates swoop in to grab him on a one-year deal.
43. Juan Pierre - A's. Beane hates paying premium price for speed...but Pierre won't make premium price. They'll hide him in left field.
44. Frank Francisco - Mets. LMAO. That is all.
45. Jason Marquis - Mets. He's stated he likes New York. The Yankees ain't signing him...so he'll sign with the Mets to be a back of the rotation guy.
46. Joel Pineiro - White Sox. After losing Buehrle, they'll need to fill out the rotation somehow.
47. Jonathan Broxton - Reds. They let Cordero walk because of the price. I can see them giving Broxton an incentive-laden deal to close.
48. Joe Nathan - Red Sox. Yeah...I know they have Daniel Bard, but can Boston really resist adding a big name with a history of success on what can only be considered as a bargain price for what he's able to provide? Personally, I don't think so.
49. Kerry Wood - Cubs. No brainer here, he's signing with the Cubs.
50. Bruce Chen - Royals. Not sure why he'd leave Kansas City. He owes them, they owe him. No one else believes in him in all likelihood.
And to make up for some of the names that were cut out because of the early signings.
Derrek Lee - A's. Beane continues a small spending spree in signing Lee to be his everyday 1B.
Yoenis Cespedes - Cubs. Theo Epstein will probably urge Jed Hoyer to spend the money once it's confirmed that Cespedes is the real deal.
Vlad Guerrero - Mariners. They need some pop offensively and adding Vlad to DH for them might be a decent way to do so.
Francisco Cordero - Mets. I don't know if they'll stick with Parnell. Cordero could help them at the right price.
1. Albert Pujols - Cardinals. Lots of folks predicting he returns to the Cardinals, but I'll explain anyway. Very few players are the personification of a franchise. Like Derek Jeter was to the Yankees, Pujols is to the Cardinals. The scary difference...is that Pujols actually deserves this new deal. Ultimately, the Cardinals can't afford to let Pujols leave. They'll step in at the last second and make sure they win the bid.
2. Prince Fielder - Cubs. Theo Epstein isn't the GM of the Cubs...but I'm pretty certain he'll let Jed Hoyer know that he doesn't care if Prince Fielder is "fat". An OBP of .400+ in three straight seasons makes him the kind of player I feel Epstein and Hoyer will want to build the Cubs around. An over the top bid will likely get it done.
3. Jose Reyes - Brewers. What do you do when you lose your fat slugging 1B? Infuse the team with some dynamic speed and set Ryan Braun up for a monster RBI season. With Fielder leaving, the Brewers will have some money to burn...and why not add the marquee free agent shortstop? He and Weeks will create a dynamic 1-2 punch at the top of their lineup.
4. C.J. Wilson - Angels. I stated my opinion in a thread in the Braves forum, but I expect Wilson to land out west. He just seems like a good-weather lover and I can't imagine him--all things equal--choosing to move northeast if LA is an option. That said, the Angels can't do much on their offense and will likely be content with waiting for Kendry Morales' return. Adding Wilson to their rotation will allow them to stick it to the Rangers AND close the gap at the same time.
5. Yu Darvish - Nationals. I'll go out on a limb and say the Nats win this posting bid. They have Strasburg coming back, as well as Zimmermann. They just re-signed Wang and have Lannon on the back end. Grabbing Darvish to pair with Stras would boost their rotation from good to great on paper and help them take a couple of strides towards running down the Braves and Phillies in talent.
6. Edwin Jackson - Rockies. Colorado needs experience in their rotation and after restocking their system with the Ubaldo trade, Jackson is a guy I feel they may take the risk on to anchor their young rotation and provide some solid innings.
7. Jimmy Rollins - Phillies. I don't see a reason for him to leave and I don't see a reason the Phillies won't give him at least 3 years on a deal.
8. Aramis Ramirez - Marlins. They won't land Reyes...or Pujols...or Darvish...or any of the other big name free agents. I just don't think they can make guys believe Miami will suddenly change the franchise's past history in tearing down the structure and rebuilding on the fly. Aramis, though, seems to just be after money and job security. The Marlins could provide both for a couple of years.
9. Carlos Beltran - Braves. I'll bite on this one and get on the bandwagon. If he doesn't sign with us, I can see him landing in Boston to be their right fielder.
11. Michael Cuddyer - Twins. Not so much on the level of Pujols being everything for the Cardinals, but Cuddyer likes Minnesota and I think there are enough question marks surrounding Mauer and Morneau's health statuses that re-signing Cuddyer makes sense for the Twinkies.
12. Mark Buehrle - Marlins. He's the one guy Ozzie Guillen never threw under the bus in Chicago. I can see him going down to Miami and following Guillen to warmer weather to try and make a winner out of Ozzie's first season in Florida.
13. David Ortiz - Red Sox. I just can't imagine Big Papi leaving Boston. His swing is just designed for that stadium. I know he and the management got into a war of words, but I think when all is said and done, the Red Sox will try to keep their longtime DH on a reasonable 2-year contract.
14. Ryan Madson - Marlins. As I said...I don't think they'll land any of the big name free agents they are lusting over right now. Madson may not be the marquee name in free agency...but he's the top reliever available now that Papelbon has signed. The Marlins may do something stupid with their money and replace The Pither Formerly Known As Leo Nunez.
15. Hiroki Kuroda - Dodgers. He basically blocked his way into staying in LA last year, he won't consider pitching anywhere else. The Dodgers will re-sign him to ensure they have a veteran behind Kershaw to give them innings.
16. Carlos Pena - A's. He was there once...and he just seems like a Billy Beane type of player. On a one-year deal, I can see him going back there to try and post a strong HR total to net a bigger deal.
17. Francisco Rodriguez - Rangers. This is the winter they'll move Neftali Feliz to the rotation and K-Rod will allow them to do that without sacrificing the bullpen depth in front of the closer role. Mike Adams and Uehara will remain in more suitable setup roles and continue to shorten games for the Rangers.
18. Roy Oswalt - Yankees. After missing out on C.J. Wilson, the Yankees get desperate and give Oswalt a lot of guaranteed money to make AJ Burnett an afterthought.
19. Javier Vazquez - Tampa Bay. Kind of think the Rays may look to trade James Shields this winter in an attempt to land their cather of the future--perhaps one of Grandal or Mesoraco of the Reds. Once Shields is gone, I can see them offering Vazquez a one-year deal to hold down the middle of their rotation behind Price and The Hell Lick.
20. Heath Bell - Padres. He'll accept the arbitration offer and return to San Diego--whether or not he signs a long term deal is another question.
21. Coco Crisp - Nationals. They've been after a centerfielder for a while and I think they could help each other out here.
22. Hisashi Iwakuma - Twins. A strike-throwing control-artist of a starting pitcher. That screams Minnesota Twins.
23. Kelly Johnson - Blue Jays. Something tells me he stays in Toronto. I don't think the D-Backs/Blue Jays would've made that swap last summer if they didn't each want to keep their respective players.
24. Josh Willingham - Giants. After we steal Beltran from them, they'll resort to other offensive options. Willingham should sign affordably enough for their liking.
25. Paul Maholm - Royals. They need a veteran and I can see Dayton signing Maholm in the same light as he signed Gil Meche a few years back.
26. Grady Sizemore - Marlins. Miami continues a spending spree by guaranteeing Sizemore a lot more money than they probably should--perhaps over a two-year span. At this point they are spending just to spend and not even attempting to spend their money wisely.
27. Bartolo Colon - Blue Jays. They missed on every other free agent and I think they've seen Colon enough this year to feel comfortable in signing him to fill out the back end of their rotation.
28. Erik Bedard - Red Sox. I can see him sticking around in Boston to round out their impressive rotation.
29. David DeJesus - Indians. On a one-year deal he should have enough upside for them to take the low-risk chance on him.
30. Jason Kubel - Rays. Didn't have a strong year, but he's been a solid hitter in the past. Defense issues probably dictate him staying in the AL...and the Rays seem like they could be willing to throw a few million at him to be their DH.
31. Ramon Hernandez - Indians. Bucking against the grain here. The Indians have Carlos Santana, but I really do feel they want to keep his legs fresh. They'll have him spend more time at 1B with Hafner DH'ing after they sign Hernandez.
32. Jeff Francis - Padres. Cheap addition to a young rotation that lacked an experienced veteran last year. Seems like a decent fit to me.
33. Chris Capuano - Pirates. They need to go cheap to fill out their rotation and Capuano might just be cheap enough to do that.
34. Tsuyoshi Wada - Blue Jays. Yet another name to fill out their rotation.
35. Clint Barmes - Cardinals. He seems like the Cardinal type. Scrappy, defensive player. After going big on Pujols, they'll have to skimp here to fill out their roster.
36. Casey Kotchman - Rays. They obviously like him and are pleased with his production. What's another few years to play some D and get a few big hits here and there?
37. Freddy Garcia - Orioles. Cheap veteran addition to add to their stable of young starters.
39. Johnny Damon - A's. Beane loved him back around the time Moneyball was written...but not enough to pay premium price to keep him. He's not the same guy who left so many years ago...but he's still good enough for Beane's purposes of DH'ing everyday.
40. Aaron Harang - D-Backs. They have a need for a veteran starter to eat some innings for them. They'll probably regret this one, but desperation makes you do dumb things.
42. Rafael Furcal - Pirates. Since the Cardinals couldn't spend the required money to keep Furcal, the Pirates swoop in to grab him on a one-year deal.
43. Juan Pierre - A's. Beane hates paying premium price for speed...but Pierre won't make premium price. They'll hide him in left field.
44. Frank Francisco - Mets. LMAO. That is all.
45. Jason Marquis - Mets. He's stated he likes New York. The Yankees ain't signing him...so he'll sign with the Mets to be a back of the rotation guy.
46. Joel Pineiro - White Sox. After losing Buehrle, they'll need to fill out the rotation somehow.
47. Jonathan Broxton - Reds. They let Cordero walk because of the price. I can see them giving Broxton an incentive-laden deal to close.
48. Joe Nathan - Red Sox. Yeah...I know they have Daniel Bard, but can Boston really resist adding a big name with a history of success on what can only be considered as a bargain price for what he's able to provide? Personally, I don't think so.
49. Kerry Wood - Cubs. No brainer here, he's signing with the Cubs.
50. Bruce Chen - Royals. Not sure why he'd leave Kansas City. He owes them, they owe him. No one else believes in him in all likelihood.
And to make up for some of the names that were cut out because of the early signings.
Derrek Lee - A's. Beane continues a small spending spree in signing Lee to be his everyday 1B.
Yoenis Cespedes - Cubs. Theo Epstein will probably urge Jed Hoyer to spend the money once it's confirmed that Cespedes is the real deal.
Vlad Guerrero - Mariners. They need some pop offensively and adding Vlad to DH for them might be a decent way to do so.
Francisco Cordero - Mets. I don't know if they'll stick with Parnell. Cordero could help them at the right price.