Hanson concerns?

[Freddy_Ballgame]

Aside from our absent offense, I'm a bit concerned about Tommy Hanson. He's supposed to be a dominant front of the rotation stud. Ever since last season he's inspired about as much confidence in me as Russ Ortiz. I don't see a dominant power pitcher...I see a guy almost nibbling, not challenging hitters and getting beat all too often. For a guy who started out looking like a world beater and the next face of the franchise, he's become a middlin' pitcher, as likely to get lit up as to mow down a batting order. Reckon it's in his head? Did the lack of support and his lack of dominance shape his career? Will he ever be mentioned legitimately with guys like Smoltz, Maddux or even Tim Hudson? What will it take to see him look confident and start dominating MLB hitters again? Will he?

[Andy G.]

Aside from our absent offense, I'm a bit concerned about Tommy Hanson. He's supposed to be a dominant front of the rotation stud. Ever since last season he's inspired about as much confidence in me as Russ Ortiz. I don't see a dominant power pitcher...I see a guy almost nibbling, not challenging hitters and getting beat all too often. For a guy who started out looking like a world beater and the next face of the franchise, he's become a middlin' pitcher, as likely to get lit up as to mow down a batting order. Reckon it's in his head? Did the lack of support and his lack of dominance shape his career? Will he ever be mentioned legitimately with guys like Smoltz, Maddux or even Tim Hudson? What will it take to see him look confident and start dominating MLB hitters again? Will he?
I think your perception of his performance last season might be tainted by the few really ugly starts he had. While he did get lit up a few times, his season was actually very successful overall.

He had a 3.33 ERA last season, a 1.17 WHIP and hitters only batted .239 against him. After the all star break in 2010, he had a 2.51 ERA, a 0.98 WHIP and hitters only batted .205 in the second half against him. In September, with his team torn apart by injuries as they made a push for the last playoff spot, he had a 2.04 ERA, a 0.73 WHIP and hitters batted .159 against him.

He hasn't looked good at all in his two starts this season, but in my opinion he is on his way to becoming a force at the top of our rotation, despite his recent struggles.

[The Rap]

Talk about timing. The fantasy baseball world is lit up with questions about Hanson so I wanted to copme here to find out the real truth but there were only two posts giving me each side of the story.

[Andy G.]

Talk about timing. The fantasy baseball world is lit up with questions about Hanson so I wanted to copme here to find out the real truth but there were only two posts giving me each side of the story.
There were a lot of people who didn't realize how good a year Hanson had in 2010. I think it's all faulty perception. He's thrown over 330 innings and coming into this game his career ERA was 3.21.

These past two starts were bad, but unless anybody saw something that makes them think he might be injured, I wouldn't worry about Hanson.

[Dreamscape]

I think there is a belief that Hanson is a flamethrower, when he's always been around 92 mph on his fastball with the ability to occasionally hit 95 if he reared back. I saw him comfortably in the 92 zone. He was a little worse last game out. Not sure what his average velocity is around, though I will say he has struggled to throw with his best velocity early on, but that doesn't necessarily speak to any real problems. What has been Hanson's problem, I feel, is spotting his breaking stuff. When he can spot the curve and the slider, he is fairly dominant. But sometimes, he hasn't had that and the last two outings have been pretty clear of that.

The worry about Hanson has always been his secondary pitches. People have raved about his fastball and with good reason. It sports great natural movement and was worth nearly 16 runs above average last year. Essentially, that means pretty awesome. Tim Hudson was the only Brave who got more value out of his fastball last year and Huddy gets a lot of grounders out of his. Huddy's fastball was the most valuable fastball in baseball last year, btw. Hanson also has a very good slider. He ranked tops on the staff last year with that pitch and 13th overall. But he has yet to develop the curve into a strong third pitch and hung quite a few today. His change up has yet to turn into a pitch he feels comfortable throwing.

I was hoping this would be there year Hanson made that step up that he has the ability to make. He's been a very good pitcher so far, don't get me wrong. The defense hurt him a lot last year and he probably pitched the best out of any starters. Once Hanson gets a solid third pitch he can go to...whether that is the curve, which he throws quite often...or scrapping that and expanding the use of the changeup...or whatever, he has the stuff to be an ace. Still waiting, but he's still an above average pitcher to say the very least.

[Freddy_Ballgame]

I expected the stats to show that Hanson has been effective, and it appears they do. I didn't suggest he wasn't effective. My point has more to do with buying into the hype. We were told about this kid as if he were a mythical type star. He would be the next dominant Braves ace, someone taking the mantle from Smoltz, etc. I think you hit on a good explanation of what was troubling me, Dream. I was expecting him to be a shutdown guy with the rare bad start and he's just not that guy. He may still become that guy if he masters another pitch. Perhaps, he's just stuck being the "bad luck" starter. Most staffs seem to have a guy that suffers due to lack of support. Maddux was like that many years but was so good at getting hitters out anyway it wasn't a big deal. If he can master his slider and a good curve and/or change, he may be the big dog he's been touted to be.

[Wahoo]

Andy is right, Hanson was better last year than people give him credit for. Having said that I am bearish on him ever becoming the top of the rotation starter that we first thought and many projected. He gives up too many fly balls for my liking which is OK as long as he can miss bats, which he generally can. However his command of his stuff (or lackthereof) of his stuff in the strike zone is frightening. And as Dream said his general inconsistent ability to control his breaking stuff that gets him in trouble.

Granted he is a victim of high expectations but I am like Freddy, tho it may not be fair. I generally do not have any confidence when Hanson takes the hill. It always seems like a coin toss whether you are going to get dominant one or the one destined to get shelled. With Boras as his agent, it won't be long before his salary surpasses his production.

My own gut feeling (probably irrational) is that I am just not a big fan of his mostly because it seems like every time I get to watch the Braves when he is pitching he throws a stinker.

[jlcct]

I noticed today that he couldn't place his changeup the few times he threw it. He did have one that he threw for a beautiful strike three on a swing and miss. I'm no pitching coach but I'd like to see that changeup a little more often with a little more accuracy in hopes of seeing some more of those silly looking swings. I'd also like to hear an interview from him on what he feels he needs to work on because I'm simply speculating.

[Freddy_Ballgame]

Remember, I'm not making a statement here but just "thinking out loud." Watching Hanson you can't help but notice he has a slight pause during his delivery. It always reminds me of a guy with a trick pitch who relies on a herky-jerky windup and delivery to help fool hitters. Obviously, Hanson's "stuff" is better than that and the hitch in his delivery is probably something he's always done. I wonder if smoothing out his delivery, into a more fluid motion, might help improve his command? I know there are several Japanese, Mexican and other non-American pitchers, as well as Tim Lincecum, that specialize in bizarre deliveries, but is it possible Hanson might do better without the pause as he reaches back to make a pitch?
Nick, you were a pitcher, whadda you think? It jumps out at me everytime I see him pitch!

[Andy G.]

Remember, I'm not making a statement here but just "thinking out loud." Watching Hanson you can't help but notice he has a slight pause during his delivery. It always reminds me of a guy with a trick pitch who relies on a herky-jerky windup and delivery to help fool hitters. Obviously, Hanson's "stuff" is better than that and the hitch in his delivery is probably something he's always done. I wonder if smoothing out his delivery, into a more fluid motion, might help improve his command? I know there are several Japanese, Mexican and other non-American pitchers, as well as Tim Lincecum, that specialize in bizarre deliveries, but is it possible Hanson might do better without the pause as he reaches back to make a pitch?
Nick, you were a pitcher, whadda you think? It jumps out at me everytime I see him pitch!
I was actually noticing during the game that he was separating the ball from his glove too late, and that it was throwing his delivery off because the hitch you mentioned comes before his arm can get back. I might be way off, but that's what it looked like to me.

[Freddy_Ballgame]

I've noticed since he came up that his delivery was odd and that hesitation is what makes it look odd to me. I guess I see a pitching motion the same way I see a batting stroke, you know, the fewer moving parts the better! I'm anxious to watch him work again and see if it looks different.

[LeeTro]

Andy, you're on the right track. The hitch in his delivery is really only in his arms. The lower body still seems to be drifting forward, which will lead to everything staying up in the zone. The Japanese pitchers that have a hitch are moving their lower bodies vertically during the hitch, not leading to arm lag. If Tommy can sit back on his back leg a split second longer, the arm should catch up, and he can get his good tilt back.

[Middle Man]

I don't think I've ever commented on Hanson's delivery on here because I'm no pitching coach it seems picky to critique a guy who's already had so much success - and because I don't want to be accused of jinxing him. :D But to me, he looks like a blown elbow just waiting to happen.

His delivery seems to rely way too much arm/elbow/shoulder and not enough on legs and body. He's a big guy and can generate a lot of power without the legs and body, but it just seems like he's putting tremendous stress on the arm. Having said all that, it's entirely possible that it's his somewhat unusual delivery and arm motion that allows him to get so much movement on the ball when he's going good. Maybe with a more conventional delivery, he'd suck. Who knows?

Along with a very upright delivery with little leg drive, he seems to pause his arm motion with the ball close to his head. Is this the pause that you guys are referring to? Sometimes it looks like he's throwing darts instead of a baseball - definitely not the motion they teach beginning pitchers in little league.

http://www4.pictures.zimbio.com/gi/Tommy+Hanson+Philadelphia+Phillies+v+Atlanta+qxMv4tCpSXJl.jpg


http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_nZgnr_-Qj5Q/TE52pCEd8gI/AAAAAAAAACw/LQa7WS2gC6A/s1600/Tom+Seaver.jpeg

[bravos4evr]

Remember, I'm not making a statement here but just "thinking out loud." Watching Hanson you can't help but notice he has a slight pause during his delivery. It always reminds me of a guy with a trick pitch who relies on a herky-jerky windup and delivery to help fool hitters. Obviously, Hanson's "stuff" is better than that and the hitch in his delivery is probably something he's always done. I wonder if smoothing out his delivery, into a more fluid motion, might help improve his command? I know there are several Japanese, Mexican and other non-American pitchers, as well as Tim Lincecum, that specialize in bizarre deliveries, but is it possible Hanson might do better without the pause as he reaches back to make a pitch?
Nick, you were a pitcher, whadda you think? It jumps out at me everytime I see him pitch!

Well...... as far as deception goes, that pause prolly doesn't help or hinder much at all. As far as potential injury concerns go it really comes down to how much torque your delivery puts on various parts of your body. I threw really friggin hard but felt very little arm torque due to good mechanical leg drive. (hence a knee injury leading to a shoulder injury). Once you get to be over 20 or so I think drastic mechanical changes are more likely to cause injury than help a pitcher locate better to be honest.... You develop a muscle memory in your entire body to match your mechanics...
I think he's just having a prob locating his pitches. It may be due to adrenaline being it's the new year and all and he wants to show he's the hotshot ace everyone hoped he would be.
IMO, once he calms down and trusts his stuff he will be fine. He has enough numbers now that show he misses bats and knows how to pitch.

[Wahoo]

That pic says a lot Middle. I never really noticed it before but I am inclined to agree with you that he would seem to be the next Tommy John candidate.

[Freddy_Ballgame]

Middle Man brought up a point I was hesitant to make, as well. Your description of his limited use of his legs tells me we're seeing the same thing, even if we call it different names. Whenever I see Hanson, my first thought has always been, "This guy's a "slinger," not a pitcher." His reliance on his arm and shoulder scream INJURY!

[Andy G.]

All this talk about his delivery got me thinking about this article (http://www.baseball-intellect.com/scouting-tommy-hanson/), which was written by Alex Eisenberg at baseball-intellect.com around the time that Hanson got called up to the big leagues in 2009. It's really good, and it has slow-motion video of Hanson's delivery which is cool.

Hanson's arm action is addressed by Eisenberg, though he is not as concerned about it as some fans.
I know a lot of people cringe at his arm action, but I’m not sure. Sure, he really snaps his arm hard, giving it a whip-like motion. But the whip-like motion symbolizes a loose and tension free arm. He also repeats it so well and has no history of arm-related injuries. Hanson seems to move almost in slow-motion throughout his entire wind-up, but really explodes prior to release, throwing the ball with tremendous arm speed, strength, and intent, something I love to see.

After that, Eisenberg mentions the "hitch" in Hanson's delivery and describes in much like the way LeeTro did a few posts back.
After breaking his hands, his arms rise, mirroring each other until the moment he’s about to bring his arm vertical. Prior to that point, you can see how the hips aggressively rotate forward, which is soon followed by the torso, and then the arm. The efficiency of Hanson’s kinetic chain of events is precise, which is a major reason he’s able to produce the kind of velocity he does.

This is what Eisenberg said at the end of the article. It's interesting to read this nearly two years later, because consistency is the only thing preventing Hanson from being one of the best pitchers in major league baseball.
While the hype surrounding Hanson is strong, there are issues he must continue to progress on. The problem vs. lefties has been touched on, as has the development of his change-up. But Hanson also must become more consistent from game-to-game. He’s flat out dominant when he’s going right, but he gets hit hard when he loses command of his pitches, specifically his offspeed offerings. Hanson is also an extreme fly ball pitcher, which will naturally lend itself to giving up more homeruns. It’s something he’s struggled with over the course of his minor league career.

For the record, Hanson has not given up an alarming amount of homeruns in the majors. He's been pretty decent at preventing them. He's also done a good job against left handed hitters.

It's easy to forget how young Hanson is. He is still just 24 years old, and hasn't quite been in the majors for two full seasons yet. Baseball players typically do gain consistency as they gain experience. I understand what everyone is saying, but I feel like Hanson is far too young and inexperienced to not be given the benefit of the doubt at least for the foreseeable future.

[bravos4evr]

I don't think I've ever commented on Hanson's delivery on here because I'm no pitching coach it seems picky to critique a guy who's already had so much success - and because I don't want to be accused of jinxing him. :D But to me, he looks like a blown elbow just waiting to happen.

His delivery seems to rely way too much arm/elbow/shoulder and not enough on legs and body. He's a big guy and can generate a lot of power without the legs and body, but it just seems like he's putting tremendous stress on the arm. Having said all that, it's entirely possible that it's his somewhat unusual delivery and arm motion that allows him to get so much movement on the ball when he's going good. Maybe with a more conventional delivery, he'd suck. Who knows?

Along with a very upright delivery with little leg drive, he seems to pause his arm motion with the ball close to his head. Is this the pause that you guys are referring to? Sometimes it looks like he's throwing darts instead of a baseball - definitely not the motion they teach beginning pitchers in little league.

http://www4.pictures.zimbio.com/gi/Tommy+Hanson+Philadelphia+Phillies+v+Atlanta+qxMv4tCpSXJl.jpg


http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_nZgnr_-Qj5Q/TE52pCEd8gI/AAAAAAAAACw/LQa7WS2gC6A/s1600/Tom+Seaver.jpeg



See I was taught the Seaver/Ryan method of pitching by my dad. Hpwever if you look at many modern day pitchers, they tend to not stride that far... IDK why, if it's cuz it's harder to throw sliders or what.......

[Freddy_Ballgame]

I'm not sure guys like Seaver or Ryan threw sliders, did they? They were old school guys with power arms and threw curves. Ryan himself had an odd delivery.

[Andy G.]

Big Stride Angle = Small ERA (http://www.somaxsports.com/StrideAngleERA.html)

I don't completely agree with this theory, but it's still interesting. You guys might enjoy giving it a read.

[bravos4evr]

I can buy that to an extent as the long stride helps the fast ball gain momentum without putting excessive torque on the arm as well as allowing an easier disguise on a curve ball. However, with modern pitches like the slider,splitter and such, I think it would be harder to throw these pitches accurately striding a long way. (which is why my slider was never worth a crap as I had a long stride like Seavers). Yet I had a hard curveball that broke like forkball almost..... It seems that if you come down that hard with your legs at a forward angle (assuming an overhand motion) that snapping a slider would really put a strain on your elbow.....

[Andy G.]

Wow. Check this out (http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2011/writers/tom_verducci/04/12/fastballs.trackman/index.html?eref=sihp). It was just posted on SI.com yesterday, and it gives definite credence to the long stride delivery.

It's about a Danish technology company that uses 3D Doplar radar ball flight measurement. I might be overstating this, but I think it's an incredible advancement for baseball scouting.

They can measure how far a pitcher extends from the mound when he releases a pitch, and they found a direct correlation between pitchers who release the ball closer to the plate and the pitchers who get more swings and misses on their fastball.

They can also measure how much a pitcher's curveball spins, and again they found a direct correlation between the pitchers who get the most spin and the pitchers who get more swings and misses with their curveball. Here's an excerpt.

The data is fun and interesting, but it's only valuable because of how it is used, not just how it is compiled. For instance, once you measure fastball extension, just how important is that information? Trackman has that answer, too. It divided all pitchers with at least 100 innings into two categories: pitchers with below the 5-foot-10 average fastball extension and those with above average extension. Then it looked at ERA and strikeout rates. What it found was a correlation between greater extension and a lower ERA and higher strikeout rate.

I don't think this is by any means a condemnation of every pitcher who gets below average extension with their delivery. It is certainly possible for one of those pitchers to have a very successful career. At the very least, though, this validates everything you guys have been saying in your discussion. If a kid is being taught how to pitch, he ought to be taught to pitch with maximum extension.